Well the Bengals lost last night, mostly because the defensive coordinator is a moron. After watching 14 games this season, anyone could tell you that the Bengals front 4 is not good enough to get a consistent pass rush. But at no time did I see the Bengals try to blitz with any regularity. What’s more, the linebackers and corners dropped and covered deep, routinely leaving the 5-8 yard dump pass over the middle open. So Peyton Manning and co. dinked and dunked the Bengals to death. Meanwhile, Carson Palmer never got into a rhythm due to the offense’s strong desire to push the Colts run defense. They did that well, but Palmer never got comfortable and the O-line could not contain the Colts pass rush.
All told, this vaults three games into the spotlight to see who makes the AFC playoffs: New England at Jacksonville, Cincinnati at Denver, and NY Jets at Miami on Monday night. Denver plays San Francisco in its final game so if the Broncos beat the Bengals, Denver is almost sure to finish 10-6 and get in. Likewise for the Jets: they play Oakland at home in the last game so if they beat the Dolphins, they will finish at 10-6 and make the playoffs. Jacksonville finishes the season at Kansas City and they play terrible on the road so if the Jaguars lose to New England, they are almost sure to finish the season at 8-8. Even if they win against New England, losing to Kansas City would mean a 9-7 finish with a 6-6 record against the AFC, probably not good enough to get in.
Then you have the morass with the Bengals. If the Bengals beat Denver, they are almost guaranteed to get in, even if they lose to the Steelers the following week (assuming Jacksonville loses one of their last two games) as they will have the head to head against Denver and a better AFC record than Jacksonville. They would only be threatened if Buffalo wins their last two games to also finish 9-7 with a 7-5 record against the AFC. The next tiebreaker is record against common opponents with a minimum of 4, followed by strength of victory and strength of schedule. But, Buffalo closes out the season against Baltimore and the Ravens might still be playing hard to try and get the #1 or #2 seed. If the Bengals lose to Denver, they will need the Jets to lose to Miami or Oakland to have a shot as well as have Jacksonville go down and win against Pittsburgh.
So, I think the Jets will get in and the winner of Cincinnati – Denver will get in. How the seeds will shake out is still up in the air and it looks like the three top seeds will have to keep fighting it out to see who gets the #1 and #2 seeds.
Tuesday, December 19, 2006
Monday, December 18, 2006
Playoff Mists
Continuing with our series of football updates, San Diego is moving more and more into the team to beat. If the Bengals manage to beat Indianapolis tonight (and that’s a big if), San Diego will secure a first-round bye. Unfortunately for them, they have to keep playing their A-list players even if Indy loses because Baltimore keeps winning and Baltimore would have the tiebreaker if the two clubs finish the season tied. So, in order to secure the #1 seed, San Diego has to finish the season one game up on Baltimore and given Baltimore’s schedule, that could mean that San Diego must finish at 14-2 to Baltimore’s 13-3. Fortunately, San Diego finishes up against some pud opponents (Seattle and Arizona). As such, it seems very likely that San Diego and Baltimore will be your #1 and #2 seeds.
Indianapolis won the AFC South by virtue of Jacksonville’s loss to Tennessee. New England vented its anger against Houston and will probably try to complete the righting of the ship against Jacksonville next weekend. However, Jacksonville plays very well at home so don’t expect a cakewalk for the Pats. Plus, New England finishes the season against the surging Titans. The Patriots will probably win at least one of these games and secure the AFC East, but they are going to have a tough go of it. With Indy freefalling at the moment due to injuries, these two teams are virtual locks for the #3 and #4 seeds. Given that Indy has the tiebreaker and a game against Houston next week, I think Indy will hold the #3 seed, regardless of what happens tonight.
That leaves the wild cards. The Bengals can take a commanding position if they beat Indianapolis tonight. The Bengals win percentage against the AFC is better than all other wild card contenders at the moment. If they win, they will also be a full game up on Denver, Jacksonville, and the Jets. Denver has the next best record and currently holds the #6 seed. Jacksonville has the tiebreaker against the Jets, but the Jets’ schedule allows them hope of getting in if Cincinnati, Denver or Jacksonville stumbles. If Cincinnati loses tonight, they will fall to the #6 spot, behind Denver, with the match-up at Mile-High determining who probably gets in. Theoretically, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and Tennessee are still in the hunt at 7-7 but the odds are already long that a 9-7 team will get in. Plus, Pittsburgh will probably go down to the Ravens next week and Tennessee and Buffalo face each other. So, there will probably be only one 8-7 team among this bunch after next week anyway.
On the NFC side, everyone sucks. Chicago won the #1 seed, but needed overtime against a Tampa Bay team that hadn’t scored a TD since late November. New Orleans is still the #2 seed by virtue of their win over Dallas, but the Saints looked bad against the Deadskins. But, Dallas must defeat a resurgent Philadelphia team next week while New Orleans faces off against the problematic Giants.
Meanwhile, Seattle could lose their next two games and if San Francisco wins their last two, the 49ers will win the West and the #4 seed. I think that’s unlikely as Seattle faces Tampa Bay in Week 17 while San Francisco plays Denver, but it’s a possibility.
Philadelphia has put itself in a good position to lock up the #5 seed, but if they beat Dallas next week and Atlanta after that, Philly would win the NFC East. Either way, Philadelphia is a strong bet to make the playoffs after being left for dead. Atlanta meanwhile is in a world of hurt. They can defeat the Panthers next week to get themselves back to 8-7, but the team’s confidence is shaken after Jim Mora’s comments about possibly leaving if the University of Washington job came open and defeat against the Eagles in week 17 looms large. If the Falcons don’t make the playoffs, Mora will probably be fired. The Giants are also still in the mix as they currently hold the #6 seed. Their schedule lends itself towards an 8-8 finish and since they hold the tiebreaker over Atlanta, they get in.
Green Bay, Minnesota, St. Louis, and San Francisco could also all win out to challenge the Giants and Falcons for the last playoff spot, but schedule and tiebreakers favor the Giants. Minnesota has the best chance as they play Green Bay and St. Louis in the last two weeks and if they win those, they would be 8-8 with an 8-4 record against the NFC, better than any other potential 8-8 team. But Minnesota has been sketchy and after squandering their chance against the Jets, the Vikings will need to be perfect down the stretch.
So, the current playoff match-ups are as follows:
AFC
#1 San Diego – bye
#2 Baltimore – bye
#6 Denver at #3 Indianapolis
#5 Cincinnati at #4 New England
NFC
#1 Chicago – bye
#2 New Orleans – bye
#6 NY Giants at #3 Dallas
#5 Philadelphia at #4 Seattle
Philadelphia would like nothing better for this to be the case. Seattle is looking very mortal and if they win there, they would travel to Chicago. The Bears don’t look very good either, giving the Eagles a good chance of getting back the NFC title game with a back-up quarterback. Of course, if they win the East, they could fight their way all the way to the #2 seed if New Orleans doesn’t recover. Either way, the Eagles could find themselves in their fifth NFC title game in six years.
Indianapolis won the AFC South by virtue of Jacksonville’s loss to Tennessee. New England vented its anger against Houston and will probably try to complete the righting of the ship against Jacksonville next weekend. However, Jacksonville plays very well at home so don’t expect a cakewalk for the Pats. Plus, New England finishes the season against the surging Titans. The Patriots will probably win at least one of these games and secure the AFC East, but they are going to have a tough go of it. With Indy freefalling at the moment due to injuries, these two teams are virtual locks for the #3 and #4 seeds. Given that Indy has the tiebreaker and a game against Houston next week, I think Indy will hold the #3 seed, regardless of what happens tonight.
That leaves the wild cards. The Bengals can take a commanding position if they beat Indianapolis tonight. The Bengals win percentage against the AFC is better than all other wild card contenders at the moment. If they win, they will also be a full game up on Denver, Jacksonville, and the Jets. Denver has the next best record and currently holds the #6 seed. Jacksonville has the tiebreaker against the Jets, but the Jets’ schedule allows them hope of getting in if Cincinnati, Denver or Jacksonville stumbles. If Cincinnati loses tonight, they will fall to the #6 spot, behind Denver, with the match-up at Mile-High determining who probably gets in. Theoretically, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and Tennessee are still in the hunt at 7-7 but the odds are already long that a 9-7 team will get in. Plus, Pittsburgh will probably go down to the Ravens next week and Tennessee and Buffalo face each other. So, there will probably be only one 8-7 team among this bunch after next week anyway.
On the NFC side, everyone sucks. Chicago won the #1 seed, but needed overtime against a Tampa Bay team that hadn’t scored a TD since late November. New Orleans is still the #2 seed by virtue of their win over Dallas, but the Saints looked bad against the Deadskins. But, Dallas must defeat a resurgent Philadelphia team next week while New Orleans faces off against the problematic Giants.
Meanwhile, Seattle could lose their next two games and if San Francisco wins their last two, the 49ers will win the West and the #4 seed. I think that’s unlikely as Seattle faces Tampa Bay in Week 17 while San Francisco plays Denver, but it’s a possibility.
Philadelphia has put itself in a good position to lock up the #5 seed, but if they beat Dallas next week and Atlanta after that, Philly would win the NFC East. Either way, Philadelphia is a strong bet to make the playoffs after being left for dead. Atlanta meanwhile is in a world of hurt. They can defeat the Panthers next week to get themselves back to 8-7, but the team’s confidence is shaken after Jim Mora’s comments about possibly leaving if the University of Washington job came open and defeat against the Eagles in week 17 looms large. If the Falcons don’t make the playoffs, Mora will probably be fired. The Giants are also still in the mix as they currently hold the #6 seed. Their schedule lends itself towards an 8-8 finish and since they hold the tiebreaker over Atlanta, they get in.
Green Bay, Minnesota, St. Louis, and San Francisco could also all win out to challenge the Giants and Falcons for the last playoff spot, but schedule and tiebreakers favor the Giants. Minnesota has the best chance as they play Green Bay and St. Louis in the last two weeks and if they win those, they would be 8-8 with an 8-4 record against the NFC, better than any other potential 8-8 team. But Minnesota has been sketchy and after squandering their chance against the Jets, the Vikings will need to be perfect down the stretch.
So, the current playoff match-ups are as follows:
AFC
#1 San Diego – bye
#2 Baltimore – bye
#6 Denver at #3 Indianapolis
#5 Cincinnati at #4 New England
NFC
#1 Chicago – bye
#2 New Orleans – bye
#6 NY Giants at #3 Dallas
#5 Philadelphia at #4 Seattle
Philadelphia would like nothing better for this to be the case. Seattle is looking very mortal and if they win there, they would travel to Chicago. The Bears don’t look very good either, giving the Eagles a good chance of getting back the NFC title game with a back-up quarterback. Of course, if they win the East, they could fight their way all the way to the #2 seed if New Orleans doesn’t recover. Either way, the Eagles could find themselves in their fifth NFC title game in six years.
Tuesday, December 12, 2006
Samson Exposed
Ehud Olmert, Prime Minister of Israel, admitted in a slip of the tongue what we already know: that Israeli has nuclear weapons. Some people believe that Israel could have the sixth largest nuclear arsenal and probably the most sophisticated delivery system. But Olmert’s mistake came in admitting it at all. Israel has long clung to a policy of ambiguity: don’t admit, don’t deny. Better to keep the Arabs guessing and never have proof. Now, the Arabs have their proof.
Some might not see this as a big deal, but it actually is. Now that the cat is officially out of the bag, Iran is going to thumb its nose at everyone and say that they need nuclear weapons to counter the threat from Israel. Not that the world community was going to stop Iran, but this eliminates any possibility of anyone outside of the US and maybe Britain of applying sanctions to Iran and we already have them in place.
Secondly, Israel can no longer hope for the US backing if they chose to bomb the Iranian sites. Israel was always going to be vilified for a preemptive strike on Iran, but they could have probably counted on the US support and the rest of the world talking out of both sides of their mouth about how it was a terrible thing Israel did, but its also nice to not have a nuclear Iran. Now the world will universally condemn Israel for being a have and imposing its will on its neighbors. The world will try to apply great pressure to Israel and the US will probably not even try to stop it, finding no real hole in the world's argument.
The third consequence is that after some sort of hostilities erupt next year, the UN will come down and demand that the Middle East be declared a nuclear free zone. They might actually enforce it in Iran and other countries, but the focus of their wrath will be on Israel. Israel, to maintain any standing in the world community will be forced to give up their nuclear weapons and subject themselves to UN inspection tours. Without the threat of nuclear reprisals, the enemies of Israel will gather their forces for a large-scale invasion. Losses will be heavy, but if they act quickly, they should overwhelm the unprepared Israelis. At least, that’s what they think.
Midnight is approaching and Olmert is pushing the minute hand only that much faster.
Some might not see this as a big deal, but it actually is. Now that the cat is officially out of the bag, Iran is going to thumb its nose at everyone and say that they need nuclear weapons to counter the threat from Israel. Not that the world community was going to stop Iran, but this eliminates any possibility of anyone outside of the US and maybe Britain of applying sanctions to Iran and we already have them in place.
Secondly, Israel can no longer hope for the US backing if they chose to bomb the Iranian sites. Israel was always going to be vilified for a preemptive strike on Iran, but they could have probably counted on the US support and the rest of the world talking out of both sides of their mouth about how it was a terrible thing Israel did, but its also nice to not have a nuclear Iran. Now the world will universally condemn Israel for being a have and imposing its will on its neighbors. The world will try to apply great pressure to Israel and the US will probably not even try to stop it, finding no real hole in the world's argument.
The third consequence is that after some sort of hostilities erupt next year, the UN will come down and demand that the Middle East be declared a nuclear free zone. They might actually enforce it in Iran and other countries, but the focus of their wrath will be on Israel. Israel, to maintain any standing in the world community will be forced to give up their nuclear weapons and subject themselves to UN inspection tours. Without the threat of nuclear reprisals, the enemies of Israel will gather their forces for a large-scale invasion. Losses will be heavy, but if they act quickly, they should overwhelm the unprepared Israelis. At least, that’s what they think.
Midnight is approaching and Olmert is pushing the minute hand only that much faster.
Monday, December 11, 2006
Israeli Football
First, some football: the AFC continues to be clouded as only two of the 7-5 teams won, while two of the division leaders got slapped silly. San Diego, aided by losses by Denver, Kansas City, and Indianapolis, both won the West but also vaulted into the #1 position. Indianapolis holds a tiebreaker over Baltimore at the moment, but with the lack of run defense, it is possible that Indy could fall behind the Ravens in the quest for the #2 seed. San Diego’s road is easy enough over the last three games that they should be able to hold onto that #1 seed. New England looked terrible but it should still be able to hold onto the East and the #4 seed that will come with it.
The wild card became clearer, although it is not well defined yet. Cincinnati and Jacksonville both won, but each team’s schedule could deal the team crippling blows towards getting into the playoffs. Cincinnati must go to Indianapolis and Denver and win at least one of those games (the Denver game is probably the more needed one) while Jacksonville must square off against a resurgent Tennessee and travel to Kansas City and Jacksonville has not played well on the road this year. The Jets, the Chiefs, and the Broncos are still in things at 7-6 but one more loss will probably doom their playoff chances. The Steelers, Dolphins, Bills, and Titans are still harboring delusions of the playoffs. The Steelers hopes will die against the Ravens in two weeks while the Dolphins and Bills will probably go down in random losses or tiebreakers that were settled when both teams were suffering early in the season. The Titans have a chance, but their failures early will probably doom them.
On the NFC side, Chicago will probably beat the Rams tonight and all but clinch the #1 seed. New Orleans has done well and can probably hold the #2 seed as the Seahawks don’t seem to be doing well at the moment. Dallas is currently sitting in fourth, but can pass the bumbling Seahawks with a couple of wins. The Giants and Eagles currently hold the #5 and #6 seeds but they play each other this weekend. Atlanta is in there as well, but they play Dallas this weekend. So the door is still open for the Panthers. If the Falcons lose to Dallas and the Panthers beat Pittsburgh, they are back in the mix of it for the #6 seed. I don’t think that’s likely and I would opt for 6-7 Minnesota to be more likely to get back in the mix. Ultimately, I think the odds and schedule favor the Giants to secure the #5 seed while the #6 seed will pass to either Atlanta or Minnesota. Minnesota’s schedule is significantly easier than Atlanta’s but they have been so unreliable in the past few games that I can’t pull the trigger on them just yet.
Current Playoff Schedule:
AFC:
#1 San Diego - bye
#2 Indianapolis - bye
#6 Jacksonville at #3 Baltimore
#5 Cincinnati at #4 New England
NFC:
#1 Chicago – bye
#2 New Orleans – bye
#6 Philadelphia at #3 Seattle
#5 NY Giants at #4 Dallas
In non-football related news, Baby X turns 7 months today and is still very cute. She still has some problems with waking up during the night, but we’re trying to power through those.
Meanwhile, the world is still moving with steady progress towards a large confrontation with Israel in the late spring or early summer of 2007. Iran is predicting to have fully fissile material by the end of March, which should give them a fully functional nuclear weapon a couple of months after that. Iran won’t have enough to use in the next confrontation with Israel, but it will probably hold the nuclear weapons as a means of keeping the US forces in Iraq to come to Israel’s aid when the attack is launched. Iran may even be hoping that Israel attempts to knock out the Iran facilities and use that as a means of triggering the war. About the only thing that throws any kind of wrench into their plans is the factionalism among the Palestinians in Gaza that prevents a united front. Iran may back a major power push against Fatah in the next few weeks to secure a united front in the south and Hamas has shown them to be a little more agreeable to Iran’s frame of mind. Either way, I would be very surprised if a large-scale war has not broken out by mid to late May next year.
The wild card became clearer, although it is not well defined yet. Cincinnati and Jacksonville both won, but each team’s schedule could deal the team crippling blows towards getting into the playoffs. Cincinnati must go to Indianapolis and Denver and win at least one of those games (the Denver game is probably the more needed one) while Jacksonville must square off against a resurgent Tennessee and travel to Kansas City and Jacksonville has not played well on the road this year. The Jets, the Chiefs, and the Broncos are still in things at 7-6 but one more loss will probably doom their playoff chances. The Steelers, Dolphins, Bills, and Titans are still harboring delusions of the playoffs. The Steelers hopes will die against the Ravens in two weeks while the Dolphins and Bills will probably go down in random losses or tiebreakers that were settled when both teams were suffering early in the season. The Titans have a chance, but their failures early will probably doom them.
On the NFC side, Chicago will probably beat the Rams tonight and all but clinch the #1 seed. New Orleans has done well and can probably hold the #2 seed as the Seahawks don’t seem to be doing well at the moment. Dallas is currently sitting in fourth, but can pass the bumbling Seahawks with a couple of wins. The Giants and Eagles currently hold the #5 and #6 seeds but they play each other this weekend. Atlanta is in there as well, but they play Dallas this weekend. So the door is still open for the Panthers. If the Falcons lose to Dallas and the Panthers beat Pittsburgh, they are back in the mix of it for the #6 seed. I don’t think that’s likely and I would opt for 6-7 Minnesota to be more likely to get back in the mix. Ultimately, I think the odds and schedule favor the Giants to secure the #5 seed while the #6 seed will pass to either Atlanta or Minnesota. Minnesota’s schedule is significantly easier than Atlanta’s but they have been so unreliable in the past few games that I can’t pull the trigger on them just yet.
Current Playoff Schedule:
AFC:
#1 San Diego - bye
#2 Indianapolis - bye
#6 Jacksonville at #3 Baltimore
#5 Cincinnati at #4 New England
NFC:
#1 Chicago – bye
#2 New Orleans – bye
#6 Philadelphia at #3 Seattle
#5 NY Giants at #4 Dallas
In non-football related news, Baby X turns 7 months today and is still very cute. She still has some problems with waking up during the night, but we’re trying to power through those.
Meanwhile, the world is still moving with steady progress towards a large confrontation with Israel in the late spring or early summer of 2007. Iran is predicting to have fully fissile material by the end of March, which should give them a fully functional nuclear weapon a couple of months after that. Iran won’t have enough to use in the next confrontation with Israel, but it will probably hold the nuclear weapons as a means of keeping the US forces in Iraq to come to Israel’s aid when the attack is launched. Iran may even be hoping that Israel attempts to knock out the Iran facilities and use that as a means of triggering the war. About the only thing that throws any kind of wrench into their plans is the factionalism among the Palestinians in Gaza that prevents a united front. Iran may back a major power push against Fatah in the next few weeks to secure a united front in the south and Hamas has shown them to be a little more agreeable to Iran’s frame of mind. Either way, I would be very surprised if a large-scale war has not broken out by mid to late May next year.
Thursday, December 07, 2006
Football Alternate Universe
Whilst reading a column on the Sports Illustrated site, I came across an interesting comment. Someone had asked what was the most season changing play of the college football season and the writer had responded that (in his opinion) it was Rutgers first attempt at the game winning field goal against Louisville. The kick missed, but a Louisville player jumped offsides, giving Rutgers 5 yards and a second kick. So what would have happened if that player had not jumped offsides and Louisville had won the game in overtime?
Having defeated the two biggest rivals on their schedule, Louisville would have vaulted to the #2 spot in the BCS standings. They would have cemented that standing, as everyone else around them finished with one or two losses and Louisville would now be playing the BCS title game. This would make the folks in Columbus happy, as they have not been looking for a National Championship Game but rather an anointing ceremony. I’m not sure they will get that against Florida but it would have been a little more likely against Louisville. The BCS bowl games would have looked like this:
National Title Bowl: Ohio St. vs. Louisville
Rose: USC vs. Michigan
Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. Boise St.
Sugar: Florida vs. Notre Dame
Orange: Wake Forrest vs. LSU
I was mistakenly under the impression that the Big East automatically went to the Orange Bowl, but that is only true for the ACC. Prior to the BCS it seems it was tradition for the ACC to play the Big East, but they do not have a guaranteed bowl like the others do. So Louisville’s selection would have been like taking an at-large team. The Rose Bowl would have snapped up Michigan to replace Ohio St. and the rest of the Bowls would have selected as they did this year: Sugar, Orange, Fiesta.
Having defeated the two biggest rivals on their schedule, Louisville would have vaulted to the #2 spot in the BCS standings. They would have cemented that standing, as everyone else around them finished with one or two losses and Louisville would now be playing the BCS title game. This would make the folks in Columbus happy, as they have not been looking for a National Championship Game but rather an anointing ceremony. I’m not sure they will get that against Florida but it would have been a little more likely against Louisville. The BCS bowl games would have looked like this:
National Title Bowl: Ohio St. vs. Louisville
Rose: USC vs. Michigan
Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. Boise St.
Sugar: Florida vs. Notre Dame
Orange: Wake Forrest vs. LSU
I was mistakenly under the impression that the Big East automatically went to the Orange Bowl, but that is only true for the ACC. Prior to the BCS it seems it was tradition for the ACC to play the Big East, but they do not have a guaranteed bowl like the others do. So Louisville’s selection would have been like taking an at-large team. The Rose Bowl would have snapped up Michigan to replace Ohio St. and the rest of the Bowls would have selected as they did this year: Sugar, Orange, Fiesta.
Monday, December 04, 2006
More Football
So a few things happened on the way to the Ohio St.-USC game. USC lost to UCLA while Florida actually held up its end of the bargin and beat Arkansas. For this prowess and the desire to not have Michigan play OSU in a rematch, the voters conciously voted Florida into the #2 spot. Michigan is correct to gripe that if USC had won, they would have finished the season at #3 while Florida stayed at #4, that is true. But that is for the BCS voters to decide.
What the voters were really afraid of is a Michigan-Ohio St. rematch where Michigan beats Ohio St. and Florida beats Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl leaving three 1-loss teams and the "National Champion" as a team which didn't even win its conference. Michigan will gripe and complain, but at the end of the day, they had a chance to beat Ohio St. and didn't do it. Let's see if the best of the SEC can. If Florida wins and Michigan defeats USC in the Rose Bowl, then we can discuss what could have been, but for now its Ohio St. vs. Florida.
In the NFL, things got more interesting. The four conference winners are pretty much set in the AFC and only the South is still up for grabs in the NFC. The AFC 1-4 seeds will be Indianapolis, San Diego, Baltimore, and New England with San Diego now in a great position to grab the #1 seed away from Indianapolis. Baltimore and New England will probably fight it out for the #3 and 4 seeds. Chicago has already won the NFC North while Dallas and Seattle have significant leads in the East and West. I think Dallas will secure the #2 seed and Seattle and New Orleans will fight it out for the #3 and 4 seeds.
But it's the AFC wild cards that are the topic of discussion. With the Jets, Cincinnati and Jacksonville all winning and Denver and Kansas City losing, there is now a 5 way tie for two wild card spots. The Jets and the Bengals currently have the tiebreakers that allow them to get in and that may or may not change. The Jets have an easy last four games and should lose no more than one game, puting them in for the #5 seed and a probable date with New England. Kansas City, Jacksonville, and Denver all cross paths with very difficult teams, as does Cincinnati. The team that emerges with only one loss will win the last spot. Cincinnati and Denver face probable losses against Indianapolis and San Diego respectively, setting up their Week 16 match-up as the probable winner take all for trip to Baltimore.
On the NFC side, mediocraty reigns supreme as 6-5 Carolina and 6-6 NY Giants fill the two wild card spots and 6-6 Atlanta waits in the wings. It is highly probable that the #6 seed in the NFC will be 9-7 or possibly worse.
But at this particular moment, I would say that San Diego beats Dallas in the Super Bowl. We'll see.
What the voters were really afraid of is a Michigan-Ohio St. rematch where Michigan beats Ohio St. and Florida beats Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl leaving three 1-loss teams and the "National Champion" as a team which didn't even win its conference. Michigan will gripe and complain, but at the end of the day, they had a chance to beat Ohio St. and didn't do it. Let's see if the best of the SEC can. If Florida wins and Michigan defeats USC in the Rose Bowl, then we can discuss what could have been, but for now its Ohio St. vs. Florida.
In the NFL, things got more interesting. The four conference winners are pretty much set in the AFC and only the South is still up for grabs in the NFC. The AFC 1-4 seeds will be Indianapolis, San Diego, Baltimore, and New England with San Diego now in a great position to grab the #1 seed away from Indianapolis. Baltimore and New England will probably fight it out for the #3 and 4 seeds. Chicago has already won the NFC North while Dallas and Seattle have significant leads in the East and West. I think Dallas will secure the #2 seed and Seattle and New Orleans will fight it out for the #3 and 4 seeds.
But it's the AFC wild cards that are the topic of discussion. With the Jets, Cincinnati and Jacksonville all winning and Denver and Kansas City losing, there is now a 5 way tie for two wild card spots. The Jets and the Bengals currently have the tiebreakers that allow them to get in and that may or may not change. The Jets have an easy last four games and should lose no more than one game, puting them in for the #5 seed and a probable date with New England. Kansas City, Jacksonville, and Denver all cross paths with very difficult teams, as does Cincinnati. The team that emerges with only one loss will win the last spot. Cincinnati and Denver face probable losses against Indianapolis and San Diego respectively, setting up their Week 16 match-up as the probable winner take all for trip to Baltimore.
On the NFC side, mediocraty reigns supreme as 6-5 Carolina and 6-6 NY Giants fill the two wild card spots and 6-6 Atlanta waits in the wings. It is highly probable that the #6 seed in the NFC will be 9-7 or possibly worse.
But at this particular moment, I would say that San Diego beats Dallas in the Super Bowl. We'll see.
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