Doctor Who Animating Is Required

With the release of two seasons of classic Doctor Who on blu ray last year, my thoughts turned to the first six seasons and what would be required if they want to include those on a blu ray release. For those of you who don't know, the first six seasons of Doctor Who (1963-1969) are all missing episodes from various stories. Some of those missing episodes have been animated, while others are only available in audio recordings with either telesnaps or production still photographs to give a visual. I figured I would go over what is required for each season and see how possible it is.

Season 1
An Unearthly Child - exists
The Daleks - exists
The Edge of Destruction - exists
Marco Polo - does not exist
The Keys of Marinus - exists
The Aztecs - exists
The Sensorites - exits
The Reign of Terror - four episodes exist, two episodes animated

Season One shouldn't pose a significant problem except for Marco Polo. I think the team that looks for lost episodes of BBC television believes that copies of at least some of the episodes exist for this story which is why there's been a bit of a hesitation about doing any more than a telesnap recon. At seven episodes, this would require a bit of animation but it is doable. At the very least, options exist for how to approach this missing story.

Season Two
Planet of Giants - exists
The Dalek Invasion of Earth - exists
The Rescue - exists
The Romans - exists
The Web Planet - exists
The Crusade - two episodes (2 and 4) missing
The Space Museum - exists
The Chase - exists
The Time Meddler - exists

When it comes time for the First Doctor to be released on blu ray, I could see them starting with Season Two. Everything exists except two episodes of The Crusade and like The Reign of Terror, I think those episodes could be animated without significant problems.

Season Three
Galaxy 4 - three episodes (1,2,4) missing
Mission to the Unknown - animated
The Mythmakers - does not exist
The Daleks' Master Plan - only three of twelve episodes exist (2,5,10)
The Massacre of St. Bartholomew's Eve - does not exist
The Ark - exists
The Celestial Toymaker - three episodes (1,2,3) missing
The Gunfighters - exists
The Savages - does not exist
The War Machines - exists

Season Three is where the real problems come in. Of the total 45 episodes in this season, 28 do not exist and only 1 has been animated. Even that is somewhat problematic as that animation was commissioned by Ian Levine and he is tempermental when it comes to playing with the BBC and their potential to make a profit off his work. I think this season has the potential to not be released at all with only the two individual stories that exist in their entirety being released on blu ray. I would hope that they might try something though as several of these missing stories are very good.

Season Four
The Smugglers - does not exist
The Tenth Planet - three episodes exist, one episode animated
The Power of the Daleks - animated
The Highlanders - does not exist
The Underwater Menace - two episodes (1,4) missing
The Moonbase - two episodes exist, two episodes animated
The Macra Terror - animated
The Faceless Ones - four episodes (2,4,5,6) missing
The Evil of the Daleks - all but one episode (2) of seven does not exist

Season Four is what actually got me thinking about what would be required for a blu ray release of these six seasons. The Power of the Daleks was animated last year and The Macra Terror is slated for a release this year. With Jamie, the Doctor and the Daleks all animated, I'm inclined to think the animation team may next tackle The Evil of the Daleks. If they do so, that would only leave 14 episodes with no visual and 6 of those would have existing episodes to base the animation off of (similar to Shada). If left to near the end of the blu ray season run, I could see both The Smugglers and The Highlanders created as purely animated stories, just to round out the season.

Season Five
Tomb of the Cybermen - exists
The Abominable Snowmen - all but one episode (2) of six does not exist
The Ice Warriors - four episodes exist, two animated
The Enemy of the World - exists
The Web of Fear - five episodes exist, one episode (3) missing
Fury From the Deep - does not exist
The Wheel in Space - two episodes exist (3,6), four episodes missing

With the discovery of Enemy and Web several years ago, the worst of the heavy lifting for this season has been done. Three stories are nearly missing but there are some episodes of those stories that exist. Even the one that doesn't exist (Fury From the Deep) has so many sensor clips and production stills that animating it would be less of a chore than other stories. The missing episode of The Web of Fear is known to exist as it was stolen shortly after discovery and presumably sold to a collector. That will presumably cause questioning as whether to animate the missing episode or hope for its recovery but at least there is a good start to this season.

Season Six
The Dominators - exists
The Mind Robber - exists
The Invasion - six episodes exist, two episodes (1,4) animated
The Krotons - exists
The Seeds of Death - exists
The Space Pirates - one episode (2) exists, five episodes missing
The War Games - exists

Season Six will probably the first Second Doctor series to be released as everything is in place except The Space Pirates. Given conventional fan wisdom, I can't see any significant push to get those five episodes animated but some treatment may be given to it. If push came to shove, I could see it released as an audio with linking narration and a few pictures mixed in, much like it is now. I actually didn't mind this story and wouldn't mind seeing an animation, but I know I'm in the minority on that one. Still, with only The Space Pirates holding it back and with the great popularity of The War Games to bank on, the BBC can be expected to make a push to get this season out at some point.

So overall, things are not as dire as they might seem. Three of the seasons are in good shape and could be released with just a small amount of extra effort on the BBC's part. Season Four is a work in progress and could be ready for a blu ray release at the end of the run of the existing seasons (presumably 6-9 years from now). That just leaves Seasons Three and Five that will require a lot of work. Season Five is in better shape than might be expected and I remain hopeful that it will be tackled once most of the work on Season Four is finished. That just leaves Season Three and time will tell if it is fully tackled. I could see an effort to animate The Daleks' Master Plan with a wide blu ray release of just that, but the rest will likely be put on the back burner at best. Hopefully we'll get lucky and more episodes will be found, easing the load on the animation and recovery teams.

Happy Hanukah

Happy Hanukah to all my Jewish friends. In the spirit of Queen:

Oscar Reflection

Last night, The Shape of Water won Best Picture. This is a movie about a mute woman who has an attraction to a hybrid fish man (think benign Creature from the Black Lagoon.) Mrs. X and I both have no desire to seek this movie out and watch it as it just doesn't look interesting to us. Jimmy Kimmel actually made a joke about how Hollywood doesn't make Oscar nominated movies to make money but to annoy the political establishment. That's actually not much of a joke when you look at the recent history of the Oscars.

I decided to go back through the recent history and see how many of the winners and nominees that I have seen and I think it's rather telling.

2017 - 0/9. This will change as I am mildly interested in seeing both Get Out and Dunkirk. I think Mrs. X would like to se Lady Bird and I'm not opposed to that in general. To be somewhat fair, some of this lack of seeing movies has to do with being busy (and poor) with a young family rather than disinterest.

2016 - 1/9 - Hidden Figures. I liked Hidden Figures, though it was somewhat predictable. Of the other nominees this year, I think Hacksaw Ridge was the only one that any appeal to me but not enough to make any serious effort.

2015 - 1/8 - The Martian. Many more folks would have added Mad Max: Fury Road here but I saw enough in trailers and cut away scenes that it just felt like a retread of The Road Warrior. I appreciate the logistics it went through but it just doesn't appeal to me. I should point out that only I saw The Martian. She hadn't read the book yet (thought it middling) so I watched it by myself. But everything else, no interest.

2014 - 0/8. This was a real case of ambivalence for me. Nothing appealed then and nothing appeals now.

2013 - 2/9 - American Hustle, Gravity. I think American Hustle was one of the movies that really pushed me off Oscar hype. It didn't win Best Picture but there was much hype around it. I watched it and found it boring. You want a good con movie? Watch The Sting. Gravity was another of those movies that while visually interesting was not worth the hype surrounding it. There is a small part of me that thinks I should watch 12 Years a Slave from a historic standpoint, but I never got a sense of importance with putting up with something that bleak like I did with Schindler's List so I don't bother.

2012 - 4/9 - Argo, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln. This marks the first winner that I've actually seen. It was ok, though not particularly outstanding. Its win was clearly more a product of the snub to Ben Afleck in the directing category. Lincoln was well acted but heavy handed and not something I'm interested in seeing again. Life of Pi was odd at the time but it has grown a bit in my memory and I think I would actually enjoy watching it a second time. Les Mis was enjoyed by both of us, though I like the actual Broadway show better. Still it was good enough to pick up on DVD and watch a couple more times. Everything else, not really my cup of tea but nearly half, including the winner, isn't bad.

2011 - 2/9 - The Help, Moneyball. Again, two movies that weren't bad and enjoyable to watch, though neither one was enjoyable enough to watch it a second time. Everything else just didn't register as being worth my time.

2010 - 4/10 - Inception, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit. It takes us to 2010 for me to find movies that really enjoyed. Toy Story 3 is very good and have watched it several times, though I think I like Toy Story 2 a bit better. I like True Grit a great deal, both for it's visual style and acting. Every since Unforgiven, I've been very fond of the more realistic Western and True Grit is a well done version of that. Even Inception I found entertaining on a conceptual level, though its been overplayed a bit. The Social Network is more like prior movies on this list where I saw it once, thought it ok and let it slide off my brain. Nothing great there. Everything else, meh.

2009 - 1/10 - Up. Avatar never appealed to me as I could see the bones of that story from a mile away. I was mildly interested in District 9 but that also faded as time went on. Up on the other hand, I've seen numerous times and I can't think of any movie that can hold a candle to the emotional storytelling of the first 10 minutes of that movie. The rest is a little more bland, though with some properly funny moments, but still head and shoulders above anything else that was nominated that year.

2008 - 1/5 - Slumdog Millionaire. Back to era of five nominees. I barely remember the other four nominees but I thought Slumdog Millionaire was ok. Nothing great, but it did hold my attention for its run and that's not bad.

2007 - 1/5 - Juno. I liked Juno. It had that cynical, yet hopeful edge to it that appealed. I've also seen enough evidence to suggest that I would probably like both No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood so I might get around to seeing them someday. So though it's only 1 of 5 here, it could be a 3 of 5 and that's not too bad.

2006 - 2/5 - Little Miss Sunshine, The Queen. Little Miss Sunshine was like Juno in that it was a quirky, indie comedy that had broad appeal. The Queen was also decent and after watching two seasons of The Crown, I'd like to go back and watch it again. I'm not much on either dirty cop movies or Scorsese so The Departed holds little interest for me.

2005 - 0/5. Gay cowboys, Spielberg trying too hard and a big head scratcher. Pass.

2004 - 1/5 - The Aviator. I saw this one on my parent's recommendation. Didn't like it as it was slow and bloated. Probably should see Million Dollar Baby but just interested in what I know will be a real downer of a movie.

2003 - 4/5 - Return of the King, Lost in Translation, Master and Commander, Mystic River. Return of the King is more of an honoring of the whole trilogy. From an individual standpoint, The Two Towers is actually the best of the three. But I like it and have watched it several times. The other three are one and done's again. I personally think Lost in Translation is way overhyped and far to artsy for my taste. The other two were at least interesting in their own way, though I have no desire to return to either of them.

So of the last fifteen years, I have seen 23 of 111 nominees (20.7%) and 3 of the 15 winners (20%). Not great percentages.

For the overall record, of the 90 best picture winners, I have seen 37 (41.1%) with most of the misses coming in the pre-1960 era.

Olympic Team Skate Scoring Redux, Part 3

Shocking no one who had seen the earlier competitions, Canada won the gold medal in the team skate competition. Russia won the silver and the USA had a very good last night to close out the bronze. Unfortunately, the same problems of last time plagued the night tonight.

Going in with a six-point lead, Canada was almost impossible to catch. A three-point lead was not insurmountable for the US to get past Russia, but it was pretty tall. The only real drama was with the US and Italy and whether the Italians could eclipse the Americans.

Because of a scoring system that doesn't penalize falls enough, Canada and Russia finished 1-2 while the US finished 3rd. This effectively put the gold medal away for Canada as they would have had to have finished in dead last in both the following competitions and have the Russians finish in first for them to catch them. Similarly, the Americans would have needed to have Russia finish dead last in at least one event for them to have a chance at getting the silver. So once again, the only drama was for the bronze and even then, a two-point lead is pretty significant when you can typically only make up one or two points at best in a round.

In the alternate scoring system, the US would have retaken the third place position from Italy, though at only a one-point differential, it would have been very close. Canada, sitting with a ten-point lead on Russia, would have been in good position to absorb a bad finish by one of their performers, but not with an insurmountable lead. Similarly, a strong performance by the US could have allowed them to overtake Russia.

With the ladies results, the competition effectively ended. A five-point lead is impossible to overcome in the current scoring system so going into the dance, Canada had secured the gold with a five-point lead over Russia. Similarly, Russia had secured the silver with a five-point lead over the US. Only the bronze was in mathematical doubt as the US had only a four-point lead over Italy but that would have required the Italians to finish in first and the Americans in last in the dance and that would have only been for co-bronze. So the dance became an exhibition for teams to work out kinks and make statements before going into their individual competitions.

In the alternate scoring system, Canada would have had a six-point lead on Russia, meaning that it was possible for the Russians to catch the Canadians if they had a bad night. Canada would have been assured at least the silver as the gap over the Americans was too big to make up, but there was a chance for drama in gold. It would have been unlikely for the US to catch the Russians for the silver, but not mathematically impossible for a co-silver should the Russians have faltered badly. It was also still possible for the Italians to vault the Americans for bronze if they had a bad night. So while the placements were still similar, there is meaning in the ice dancing round in this system as opposed to the other where everything was essentially settled.

What little drama there was with the dance competition died in the first routine when the Japanese male dancer slipped and fell. This essentially guaranteed that Japan would finish last in the category and that whisper of hope the Italians had was gone. Everything progressed as expected and the medals were awarded in exactly what was expected.

The same results would have come about in the alternate scoring system, although the American's solid second place routine would have been much more of a door slam on the Italians. Some additional tweaks might be needed but for the second time, I think this alternate scoring system would go a long way towards giving a more dramatic edge to the competition. In both 2014 and 2018, the appropriate teams won their various medals so the lesson is more about consistency and having a well rounded team. But if you're going to have a competition like this, I think a greater risk/reward system needs to be put into place so that the audience doesn't get bored with competitions that just don't matter.

One last side note, I did a quick check to see what the results would have been if falls were penalized more. Ultimately, the answer is none. I think the Canadian man's score was high enough (he actually landed one of his quad jumps before falling) that the American wouldn't have caught him anyway, but even if the American somehow finished first, the Russians still would have finished one-point ahead of the US in the standings. But that would have been a heck of a lot more drama. Interestingly, in the alternate scoring system, the Americans and Russians would have tied for the silver if the American man had finished first and the Russian third. I doubt the Olympics would have liked that but imagine the reaction from all the teams had that happened.

Drama is available to be had but only if a greater punishment is made available to counterbalance these great rewards.

Olympic Team Skate Scoring Redux, Part 2

We are now down to the qualifying five: Canada, Russia, USA, Japan and Italy. Canada entered with a clean edge and a four point lead over Russia (35-31) but Italy and Japan were within striking distance at 26 points apiece. The pairs long program was the only qualified event that also took place that day as the other three events will take place later today.

The standings after the pairs are:

Already we have our first discrepancy as Italy would be in third place in the alternate scoring system rather than still in fourth. But countering that, Canada's lead over Russia is smaller in the regular system than in the alternate system. But, with an ability to swing the pendulum in wider arcs, that larger gap may not be as big a deal as it would be in the regular system.

We shall just have to see what tonight brings.

Olympic Team Skate Scoring Redux, Part 1

Last night, the figure skating team competition kicked off at the Olympics. Four years ago I wrote a post about changing the scoring system in the second half of the competition to make it more interesting.

To recap, the scoring now is that ten teams compete in Men's, Pairs, Women's and Ice Dancing short program and the scores in each competition producing a ranking which gives them points (10 for first, 9 for second, etc.). At the end of the short program, the bottom five teams are eliminated and the remaining five do the long programs. I have no beef with this part. However, the scoring in the long program is where things fall apart.

In the long program, the five teams complete, receive scores and then get a point value based on their finish. The problem is that they get 10 thru 6 points for the finish and it's added to their existing total from the first half. This means that teams in front have little to fear from teams at the bottom as they usually can't make up ground enough. My wife and I's proposed solution was to change the points awarded from 10 thru 6 to an even award (10, 8, 6, 4, 2) based on place. This would make a mistake in the long competition much more devastating and could pull a team with a high score back to the pack or pull a team in last place up to the front.

To test this, I'm going to keep track of the scoring as done now and compare them to what they would be if the scoring was done in the alternate way.

For the first phase, it would be kept as is so the scores will show no deviation at the moment:

The FISA Memo Summary

Over the past couple of weeks, there has been talk about a 4-page memo written by several Republican members of the House potentially being released to the public. There was a vote to release this memo by the House Intelligence Committee yesterday giving President Trump five days to review the memo and opt for its release or decline and refer it to the full House. If he declines, the full House will vote whether or not to release it.

With all the buzz going on, I did a little research to try and figure out what this memo is about and what all the fuss was about.

Back in the summer of 2016, the DNC and the Clinton campaign hired a research firm called Fusion GPS to put together information on Mr. Trump. This is fairly normal, especially with someone who does not have a political record like Trump. Fusion GPS then hired a former British Intelligence officer named Christopher Steele to compile the information, sort of like hiring a private detective. Again, nothing out of the ordinary there. Mr. Steele compiles this dossier and gives it to Fusion GPS who in turn give it to the DNC.

Where things start to get murky is that Fusion GPS had supposedly also been hired by the Russian government to lobby and oppose sanctions that were being leveled or considered against their government. Shortly after this dossier was delivered to the DNC, an application was made by people in the FBI and the DOJ to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISA) for a wiretap of Trump Tower and the Trump campaign to identify whether or not Carter Page (a Trump advisor at the time) had illegal connections to the Russian government.

There are three points of interest in this. First, the dossier compiled by Fusion GPS may have been used as the source documentation for the wiretap application. If that is true, that is collusion between the DNC and the Federal government which is illegal. There is also the second accusation that the wiretaps may have extended beyond their narrowed target both in terms of the people involved and the timing allowed, meaning that the taps may have been left in after the provision by the warrant expired. Third, information collected that had nothing to do with Mr. Page or the investigation into him may have been collected and passed back to the DNC to further use against Trump. That is definitely illegal if true.

Two points. First, it is important to note that this memo is a summary of evidence collected, not the evidence itself so its interpretation can be called into question. Second, the memo was written by several Republican members of the House so again, objectivity is going to be an issue with this document.

Nevertheless, it has already had one effect in that the deputy director of the FBI, Andrew McCabe has cashed in his vacation to take a leave of absence, effective immediately, and will officially retire in March, allowing him to collect his fully vested pension. At this time it is unknown whether any other specific parties are named in the memo.

Fallout from the release of this memo is likely to amplify the partisan divide as Democrats will deny and decry it as a paranoid fever dream while Republicans will use it to accuse the Obama administration of engaging in Nixon-like tactics to ensure Clinton's victory.

I have no doubt that Mr. Trump will give the green light to the memo's release; the question is just a matter of timing. I suspect that if the State of the Union speech goes well, the memo release will be pushed back to Friday so that he can bask in the glow of validation. If it goes poorly, expect it to be released Wednesday to change the subject.