Looking ahead to 2012 is mostly pointless as two years is an eternity in politics and much could change, but let's look at the basics of it. Mr. Obama had significant momentum and even if the economy recovers, it seems unlikely to me that he is likely to win any of the states he lost in 2008 to Mr. McCain.
That starts the Republican off with 180 votes (for simplicity, I'm giving the Republican all of Nebraska's 5 votes rather than the 4-1 split in 2008). I think it is not unreasonable to think that Virginia and Indiana will swing back to the Republican column based off more recent elections. That bumps the Republican to 204.
Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina will be tougher and that's where other factors come in to play (like who the Republican nominee is for example). While these have been reddish states in the past, they are more purple and will require more effort to swing back into the red column. Wins in these three states bring the Republican to 266.
This means that to defeat Mr. Obama, the Republican will need to take those three large purple states and one more of the straddlers (Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, or New Hampshire). Nevada would probably be the easiest, followed by New Hampshire, but neither of these is automatic.
The census has made things slight more difficult for Mr. Obama, but the path to his reelection still remains mostly the same: hold the traditional blue states, keep most of the bluish-purple little states, and hold one of the big purple states (Florida being the ideal but North Carolina, Virgina, or Ohio would do in a pinch). Obviously much can and will change in the next couple of years, but the path in a broad sense looks fairly straightforward.
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