Senate Balance

While there are many races going on to be decided in 6 weeks, the Senate seems to be capturing the most attention. At the moment there are 59 Democratic Senators and 41 Republicans. It has become almost a given at this point to say that the Democrats are going to lose some seats to the Republicans and the question is just how many. Some go so far as to say that the Republicans might even take hold of the Senate. Let's examine the balance to see how likely that is.

Currently there are 18 seats held by Republicans and 19 seats held by Democrats that are on the ballot. Four of these are special elections: New York for the remainder of Ms. Clinton's term (currently held by Ms. Gillibrand), Illinois for the remainder of Mr. Obama's term (currently held by Mr. Burris), Delaware for the remainder of Mr. Biden's term (currently held by Mr. Kaufman), and West Virginia for the remainder of Mr. Byrd's term (currently held by Mr. Goodwin).

As of right now, the GOP does not look as though they will lose any seats. Florida, Missouri, New Hampshire, and Ohio are tighter races but the polling seems to favor the Republicans. In the same vein, the Republicans look as though they will pick up North Dakota, Indiana, Arkansas, and Pennsylvania. That would push the GOP to 45 seats.

On the Democratic side, they have locks on Hawaii, Maryland, New York, Oregon and Vermont. They are likely to retain Delaware, New York (special), and Connecticut. That puts the Democrats at 48 seats.

That leaves the following seats in a state of flux: California, Washington, West Virginia, Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, and Wisconsin. I think the odds favor the Democrats keeping California and Washington. The Democratic governor running for the West Virginia is popular and has the inside track for that seat, but the Republican has kept on his heels. If the Democrats retain all three of these seats, that puts them at 51 seats.

Current polling favors the Republicans in the 4 remaining seats, which would leave the Senate at 51-49, Democratic control. Now, the one thing that no one seems to be able to get a firm handle on is turnout. Heavy turnout by one side or the other would upend these numbers. A good night for the Democrats would have them retain the 4 toss-ups and press for the New Hampshire and Pennsylvania seats. A bad night for the Democrats would be to lose the 4 toss-ups and be pressed in the three medium seats mentioned above. A really bad night would have the Republicans take all 7 of these seats and press in Connecticut, Delaware, or even the special election in New York. These are unlikely, but it does give us a sense of scale for these races.

So we can rate Senate control is this manner:
Good Night for Democrats (54+ seats)
Bad Night for Democrats (50-53 seats)
Really Bad Night for Democrats (47-49 seats)
Democratic Seppeku (Less than 47 seats)