Anti-Incumbency?

There were a number of primary races but four in particular seemed to be played up more than the rest.

The first was the Republican nomination in Kentucky. In that, Rand Paul (son of Ron Paul) defeated Trey Grayson. Grayson had been recruited by Mitch McConnell and was seen as more representing the establishment while Paul is the darling of the Kentucky Tea Party and has no specific political experience (aside from what he got helping his father).

The second race was the special election to replace the late Jack Murtha (D-PA) in PA-12. In that race, Mark Critz (D) defeated Tim Burns (R) by 8 points (53-45). PA-12 is heavily Democratic but it went for McCain in the general so the message is mixed. Mr. Critz did make a big show of opposing key points of Mr. Obama's agenda so his record for the remainder of the term will likely make or break him come November when he faces off against Mr. Burns again.

Also in Pennsylvania, Arlen Spector was knocked out by Joe Sestak in the Democratic Senate primary. This is being spun as part of the anti-incumbent movement but the particulars should be examined here. Mr. Spector had been a Republican for 29 of his 30 years in the Senate and then flipped because he knew he was probably going to lose to Pat Toomey in the Republican primary (Toomey won easily). That doesn't breed a lot of loyalty even if you do have the backing of the White House and the DSCC. Plus, if one actually takes a deeper look at the polling, Mr. Sestak was polling better against Mr. Toomey anyway. So why not go with him rather than the old turncoat?

The final race of interest was the Democratic Senate primary in Arkansas. Blanche Lincoln was facing a challenge from the left in the form of Lt. Gov. Bill Halter. Ms. Lincoln earned more votes (barely) but failed to achieve 50% of the total so a runoff will be held on June 8 to determine who faces off against John Boozman. This may be an open purity test by the Democrats as neither Ms. Lincoln or Mr. Halter have cracked 40% in the polls. In that case, Democrats may be saying that if we're going to lose, we're going to lose with the candidate we like rather than squishy middle of the roaders. We'll have to see who gets that remaining 10% of the vote in three weeks.

All in all, I think the mood is not so much anti-incumbent as it is a strive for purity. Both sides are purging the party of both those who have been in Washington a long time and those seen as middle of the road folk. I think drives of more conservative candidates is being paralleled by drives for more liberal candidates. The gap between the sides is getting wider, not narrower.