Trust Me...

Yesterday, the Senate Parliamentarian ruled that the Senate is not allowed to take up Reconciliation measures regarding the Health Care Bill until President Obama has signed it into law. Essentially this means that any changes the House would have liked to make would be placed on hold. Before anything else may be considered, they must pass the Senate version of the bill as written and then Mr. Obama must sign it.

This actually is potential bad news for Mr. Obama. Up until now, there has been a game of chicken going on between Democrats in the House and Democrats in the Senate, neither one wanting to commit any more political capital to a very unpopular measure. Now the Senate is off the hook and the House has to indulge in a huge trust me.

Let's be frank. The House hates this version of the bill. All 178 Republicans have committed to voting against it. Bart Stupak and his 14 other Pro-Life Democrats have stated that they will not vote for the Senate version due to it's Federal funding of abortion. A number of Blue Dog Democrats don't want to vote for it because it means humiliating defeat in their conservative districts (Heath Schuler being a prime example).

Adding to Ms. Pelosi's woes are members of the Progressive Caucus (like Dennis Kucinich) who are livid that the Senate version does not contain a Public Option for health care and imposes a heavy tax on Union pension plans. There have also been rumblings that both the CBC and the CHC are unhappy and may vote no because of the lack of perks for their own constituents.

The main problem is that no one wants to touch an unpopular bill and House Democrats are worried that they will be hung out to dry. The theory goes that after the House passes the bill and Mr. Obama signs it into law, the Senate will go through Reconciliation to change budgetary matters within the bill that no one likes. This includes removing the large bribes paid to Ben Nelson (D-NE) and Mary Landrieu (D-LA). However, the House is deathly afraid that once Mr. Obama signs the bill, he will call it a great accomplishment and the matter will be dropped. The Senate will not bother with Reconciliation and the House will be left holding the bag while the members of their districts sharpen their knives.

To pass the bill, Ms. Pelosi needs 216 votes (this is reduced from the normal 218 votes due to four vacancies in the House at the moment: Robert Wexler (FL-19), Jack Murtha (PA-12), Neil Abercrombie (HI-1), and Eric Massa (NY-29)). As stated above, 178 Republicans and 15 Democrats are absolute "nos" at the moment. Which means that of the 39 Democrats who voted no last time, she will have to flip 17 of them while making sure that none of the more liberal members flip to no as a sign of protest.

A tall order, even without the stink of fear.