Very Early Handicapping

It's amazing what one bad year will do to a politician. Granted, the Presidential election season gets longer and longer, but it seems that people have already factored in that the Republicans are going to make significant gains in 2010 and are starting to look at 2012.

This isn't very practical as two and a half years is a very long time politically (we all thought Mr. Clinton was dead in Dec. 1994) and we can only estimate how the electoral votes will be recast following the 2010 census. Most people seem to be looking at the projections that Wiki quotes, which would take 7 from Mr. Obama and give them to Mr. McCain for a 358-180 win for Mr. Obama.

Playing my own game with the numbers, I start Mr. Obama with 222 EV and the Republican with 181 (for ease of math I'm giving the R all of Nebraska rather than the 4-1 split of 2008). In 2008, all the swing states broke for Mr. Obama. Depending on the quality of the candidate and the current economic climate, I think the Republicans have a good shot at taking back Virginia (13), North Carolina (15) and Indiana (11). I also think that if the cards are played correctly, the Republicans take back Nevada (6) and Colorado (9). This brings the balance up to 235-222.

Of the remaining states, Florida is the brass ring. Florida is expected to gain 1 vote for a total of 28 votes. If the Republican wins that they would only need 7 more votes to win (alternatively, the Republicans could concede Colorado and take Ohio (18) to win if they take Florida). On the other hand, if Mr. Obama takes Florida and then holds Pennsylvania, he gets 270 exactly and the rest is irrelevant.

It is possible that one side may make a play for a state that's been solid to one side, but that adds to much variable to the mix at the moment. Still, I would warn Floridians to prepare themselves for intense bombardment over the entire stretch of 2012.