Predictions

Tomorrow is election day so it would only be fair to offer some predictions on how things will go.

Things are looking pretty good for the GOP at the moment. That they will retake the House seems almost certain and many prognosticators have been talking of a 1994-like wave. It may be even bigger than that. Checking RCPs House Rankings, if the Republicans and Democrats take all the seats in the lean or better column assigned to them and you split the Toss-Ups 50-50, the GOP would pick up 66 seats. I think there will be higher GOP turnout that will push this model slightly to the right, so I'm going to offer my pick of 70 seats in the House. That would put it above 1994 (54 seats), but well below the insane wave of 1894 (130 seats).

The Senate is a little trickier. At the moment, I see no evidence that the GOP will lose any of the Senate seats they currently hold. They look to pick up North Dakota, Indiana, Arkansas, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Wisconsin, and Nevada. That would push them to 48 seats.

Democrats will easily keep Hawaii, Maryland, both New York seats, Oregon, and Vermont. I think they will also hold on to Connecticut and Delaware, although these races might be closer than they should be. Either way, the Democrats would have 48 seats at this point.

That leaves Illinois, West Virginia, California, and Washington as the toss-ups. I think Illinois will swing Republican (albeit reluctantly) and I also see West Virginia going Republican despite some polls showing Mr. Manchin (D) ahead. Mr. Obama is still somewhat popular in California so I think that though it will be close, the wave will not be as hard there and Ms. Boxer retains her seat. Washington is a true toss-up but things seem to break Democratic whenever they are so close in that state, so I will give the Democrats that seat as well.

In the end, I think the GOP picks up 9 seats for a 50-50 split with Joe Biden breaking the tie and allowing the Democrats to retain control of the Senate.