Kentucky and Arkansas go to the polls today. We actually had to remind my cube neighbor, who lives in Kentucky, that today was voting day. It was actually pretty funny.
Almost nothing of importance is coming up from the vote today. About the only thing of note will be whether Mr. Obama loses any part of Arkansas to Democrat challenger John Wolfe Jr. There had been a little polling done which suggested that Mr. Wolfe may get enough votes to take some delegates, especially in the rural 4th CD. It won't amount to anything of significance but it would be a slight embarrassment for the President.
Tuesday, May 22, 2012
Monday, May 21, 2012
Wednesday, May 16, 2012
Political Quickie
If anyone bothered to check, Mitt Romney won 70% of the vote in Nebraska and Oregon and bringing his official delegate total to 899.
The only other race of note was the Republican selection of State Senator Deb Fischer to run against former Senator Bob Kerrey for the open Senate seat in Nebraska. Fischer had a last minute surge that powered her past the establishment candidate AG Jon Bruning and his main challenger Treasurer Don Stenberg.
The only other race of note was the Republican selection of State Senator Deb Fischer to run against former Senator Bob Kerrey for the open Senate seat in Nebraska. Fischer had a last minute surge that powered her past the establishment candidate AG Jon Bruning and his main challenger Treasurer Don Stenberg.
Tuesday, May 15, 2012
Primary Housekeeping
Yesterday, Ron Paul announced that he would no longer be actively seeking the Republican nomination. This just means that he won't be spending any money, rather than actually suspending his campaign. Not that either of these designations have stopped his followers. They have vowed to continue to vote and push for Uncle Ron until the convention. This really isn't any different from those folks still pushing Mr. Santorum or Newt, but the Ronulans feel the need to make a show of it.
Anyway, there are two primaries today, but only one will have delegates assigned as a result. Nebraska has a non-binding Presidential preference poll while Oregon ends it's primary-by-mail. Oregon actually does all it's national elections by mail and it designates a "primary day" by which all ballots must be recieved by the ballot station. If the post office lost yours in the mail and it is delivered the next day, too bad. The primary is proportional as long as the candidate gets at least 3.5% of the vote so I would expect to see some sort of four-way split of it's 25 available delegates. Oregon won't announce anything until 8 PM PDT (11 PM EDT) by which point I will be in bed.
Not that any of this really matters. Mr. Romney is the only man left standing and he should win the lion's share. This is just another pit stop on the road to official nominee, which he should hit with the Texas primary on May 29. If some glitch occurs and he doesn't hit 1144 by that point, the June 5th primaries of California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota would most certainly put him over the top.
Anyway, there are two primaries today, but only one will have delegates assigned as a result. Nebraska has a non-binding Presidential preference poll while Oregon ends it's primary-by-mail. Oregon actually does all it's national elections by mail and it designates a "primary day" by which all ballots must be recieved by the ballot station. If the post office lost yours in the mail and it is delivered the next day, too bad. The primary is proportional as long as the candidate gets at least 3.5% of the vote so I would expect to see some sort of four-way split of it's 25 available delegates. Oregon won't announce anything until 8 PM PDT (11 PM EDT) by which point I will be in bed.
Not that any of this really matters. Mr. Romney is the only man left standing and he should win the lion's share. This is just another pit stop on the road to official nominee, which he should hit with the Texas primary on May 29. If some glitch occurs and he doesn't hit 1144 by that point, the June 5th primaries of California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota would most certainly put him over the top.
Monday, May 14, 2012
Victory Requirements
Amidst the flurry of spinning the results from North Carolina, Indiana, West Virginia, and Wisconsin last week, a few political strategists have been playing numbers games in trying to determine how either Mr. Obama retains the White House or Mr. Romney wins.
This far out, any analysis is pretty much useless. The best you can do is look back at 2008 and extrapolate based on current trends. From everywhere that I can find, it is expected that Mr. Obama will not do as well as he did in 2008 and that he will likely lose a few states that he won in 2008. I see no problem with this analysis and the question is how much he can lose and still hold on to the White House.
Two states that Mr. Obama will almost certainly lose that he won are North Carolina and Indiana. Mr. Obama won North Carolina by a margin of only 0.33% (14,200 votes) and Indiana by a margin of 1.03% (28,400 votes). These would require a switch of just 7,100 and 14,200 votes in each of those states and that seems quite likely at this point.
Florida comes next. Mr. Obama's margin of victory was 2.82% (236,450 votes out of 8.3 million cast) and a switch of just under 120,000 votes will swing the state. That is increasingly likely as Florida has tightened its voting laws and the poor economy has caused a number of potential snow bird votes from New York to lose their Florida homes and stay in New York (where Mr. Obama will win easily).
Ohio is the last state that Mr. Obama won with less than a 5% margin. He won Ohio with a 4.59% margin (262,000 votes). Ohio is still showing loyalty to Mr. Obama in the early polls. His strength will remain strong in the cities just as he will be pummeled in the rural areas. The make or break area will likely be in the southeastern corner of the state. A traditionally Democratic region (poor, blue collar) but that has been hit hard by the economic downturn and could go either way.
Virginia is the last state that Mr. Obama can lose and still retain the White House. Thanks to the strength of the Northern Virginia suburbs of DC, Mr. Obama won Virginia by a margin of 6.30% (234,500 votes). He'll still get very good returns in that region of the state, but if he doesn't retain the numbers he got from Richmond and the areas around Norfolk, Virginia will swing red again.
The tipping point state is Colorado. In the scenario painted so far, Mr. Obama would win 272-266. This means that if he loses any other state (other than the 3-pointers of Delaware, Vermont, or DC), he loses the election. Colorado was the next closest margin at 8.95% (215,000 votes). Iowa and New Hampshire are also obvious targets to turn as the margins in those states were 9.53% (146,500 votes) and 9.61% (68,300 votes) respectively.
Every state is different and while there might be a wild swing in one state against Mr. Obama, another state might push his margin of victory even higher than in 2008. However, the immediate take away is that Mr. Obama must limit his losses to less than a 4.5% switch across the board. If he does that, he'll win a second term. If he does worse than that, he will lose.
This far out, any analysis is pretty much useless. The best you can do is look back at 2008 and extrapolate based on current trends. From everywhere that I can find, it is expected that Mr. Obama will not do as well as he did in 2008 and that he will likely lose a few states that he won in 2008. I see no problem with this analysis and the question is how much he can lose and still hold on to the White House.
Two states that Mr. Obama will almost certainly lose that he won are North Carolina and Indiana. Mr. Obama won North Carolina by a margin of only 0.33% (14,200 votes) and Indiana by a margin of 1.03% (28,400 votes). These would require a switch of just 7,100 and 14,200 votes in each of those states and that seems quite likely at this point.
Florida comes next. Mr. Obama's margin of victory was 2.82% (236,450 votes out of 8.3 million cast) and a switch of just under 120,000 votes will swing the state. That is increasingly likely as Florida has tightened its voting laws and the poor economy has caused a number of potential snow bird votes from New York to lose their Florida homes and stay in New York (where Mr. Obama will win easily).
Ohio is the last state that Mr. Obama won with less than a 5% margin. He won Ohio with a 4.59% margin (262,000 votes). Ohio is still showing loyalty to Mr. Obama in the early polls. His strength will remain strong in the cities just as he will be pummeled in the rural areas. The make or break area will likely be in the southeastern corner of the state. A traditionally Democratic region (poor, blue collar) but that has been hit hard by the economic downturn and could go either way.
Virginia is the last state that Mr. Obama can lose and still retain the White House. Thanks to the strength of the Northern Virginia suburbs of DC, Mr. Obama won Virginia by a margin of 6.30% (234,500 votes). He'll still get very good returns in that region of the state, but if he doesn't retain the numbers he got from Richmond and the areas around Norfolk, Virginia will swing red again.
The tipping point state is Colorado. In the scenario painted so far, Mr. Obama would win 272-266. This means that if he loses any other state (other than the 3-pointers of Delaware, Vermont, or DC), he loses the election. Colorado was the next closest margin at 8.95% (215,000 votes). Iowa and New Hampshire are also obvious targets to turn as the margins in those states were 9.53% (146,500 votes) and 9.61% (68,300 votes) respectively.
Every state is different and while there might be a wild swing in one state against Mr. Obama, another state might push his margin of victory even higher than in 2008. However, the immediate take away is that Mr. Obama must limit his losses to less than a 4.5% switch across the board. If he does that, he'll win a second term. If he does worse than that, he will lose.
Friday, May 11, 2012
Mystery 2
Miss Marple (Joan Hickson version)
Miss Marple (Geraldine McEwan/Julia McKenzie version)
Inspector Frost
Miss Marple (Geraldine McEwan/Julia McKenzie version)
Inspector Frost
Wednesday, May 09, 2012
Delegates for Prisioner #11593-051
Another primary night has passed and very little that was unexpected happened.
In the Presidential primaries, Mr. Romney won all three states (IN, NC, and WV) with better than 60% of the vote in all. He will receive 27, 36, and 21 delegates respectively, bringing his hard total up to 881 while his projected total (including unsettled caucuses and unpledged delegates) sits at 939 or 82% of the needed total.
A funny side note on the Democratic side. Mr. Obama was up against a fellow named Keith Russell Judd in the West Virginia primary. Mr. Obama won the contest 59-41, however, Mr. Judd is currently in prison in Texas and the West Virginia Democratic party is at a bit of a loss whether to void the delegates that Mr. Judd should have won or not.
Outside of President, there were three races of note. The first was the primary defeat of Senator Dick Lugar (R-IN) to state treasurer Richard Mourdock. There was much hang-wringing and lamenting by the Washington insiders but this was not an unexpected outcome.
The second result of note was the passage of a constitutional amendment in North Carolina to outlaw gay marriage and civil unions. The funny thing about this (amidst the lamenting and moaning about this from the left) is that this actually changes nothing in North Carolina. North Carolina had already outlawed gay marriage and civil unions in the normal legal process. However, there was concern that this law could be struck down through the judiciary and so the constitutional amendment was passed, just has it has in 30 other states. The most likely cause of all the extra attention is the embarrassment of having this amendment pass by a large margin (61-39) in the same state where the Democratic National Convention will be held in September.
The third result of note is the finalizing of the contestants in the Wisconsin governor recall election. Scott Walker and his running mate, Rebecca Kleefisch will face off against Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett and Mahlon Mitchell on June 5. This is actually a rematch as Mr. Walker defeated Mr. Barrett in 2010 for the governorship in the regular election. One other little note about this race is that despite a hot contest between five candidates on one side and an essentially unchallenged incumbent on the other, there were only about 24,000 more votes cast in the Democratic primary than in the Republican (out of about 1.3 million cast). That can't sit well with Mr. Barrett in terms of voter enthusiasm and generating enough support to oust Mr. Walker in four weeks.
In the Presidential primaries, Mr. Romney won all three states (IN, NC, and WV) with better than 60% of the vote in all. He will receive 27, 36, and 21 delegates respectively, bringing his hard total up to 881 while his projected total (including unsettled caucuses and unpledged delegates) sits at 939 or 82% of the needed total.
Outside of President, there were three races of note. The first was the primary defeat of Senator Dick Lugar (R-IN) to state treasurer Richard Mourdock. There was much hang-wringing and lamenting by the Washington insiders but this was not an unexpected outcome.
The second result of note was the passage of a constitutional amendment in North Carolina to outlaw gay marriage and civil unions. The funny thing about this (amidst the lamenting and moaning about this from the left) is that this actually changes nothing in North Carolina. North Carolina had already outlawed gay marriage and civil unions in the normal legal process. However, there was concern that this law could be struck down through the judiciary and so the constitutional amendment was passed, just has it has in 30 other states. The most likely cause of all the extra attention is the embarrassment of having this amendment pass by a large margin (61-39) in the same state where the Democratic National Convention will be held in September.
The third result of note is the finalizing of the contestants in the Wisconsin governor recall election. Scott Walker and his running mate, Rebecca Kleefisch will face off against Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett and Mahlon Mitchell on June 5. This is actually a rematch as Mr. Walker defeated Mr. Barrett in 2010 for the governorship in the regular election. One other little note about this race is that despite a hot contest between five candidates on one side and an essentially unchallenged incumbent on the other, there were only about 24,000 more votes cast in the Democratic primary than in the Republican (out of about 1.3 million cast). That can't sit well with Mr. Barrett in terms of voter enthusiasm and generating enough support to oust Mr. Walker in four weeks.
Tuesday, May 08, 2012
Interesting Election Day
Today should be an interesting election day. Not so much for the Presidential primary, as Mr. Romney should take nearly all of the 132 delegates at stake in Indiana, North Carolina, and West Virginia. If he does, that will put him well over hard 900 delegates and close to 1000 if you include projections and unbound party delegates.
No, the real interest will be in the Indiana Senate primary and the Wisconsin governor primary. In Indiana, six-term incumbent Dick Lugar is being challenged by a state treasurer, Richard Mourdock. Mr. Mourdock is favored by the Tea Party while Mr. Lugar is being back by the Washington establishment. Indiana is an open primary so while Mr. Mourdock is polling ahead, Mr. Lugar has asked Independents and Democrats to come vote for him. The last polls in Indiana close at 6 pm CDT (7 pm EDT), so a call in this race should be made at a reasonable hour.
The other interesting race is the Wisconsin governor's primary. Governor Scott Walker is being targeted for a recall election that will be held on June 5. However, first there is a primary to determine who the main opponents will be. Mr. Walker is nearly unopposed as his only challenger on the Republican primary ballot is the little known Arthur Kohl-Riggs (who seems to be just trying to stir the pot a little). On the Democrat side, there are five people vying to become the challenger to Mr. Walker, but the two who are most likely to win are Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett and former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk. Mr. Barrett is the more moderate Democrat and is ahead in the polls. Ms. Falk is the more liberal Democrat and will probably do very well in Madison but will need to take a large percentage of other areas to balance out Mr. Barrett's advantage in Milwaukee. Polls close at 8 pm CDT (9 EDT) but I would expect the counting to go on on the Democratic side for a little while.
No, the real interest will be in the Indiana Senate primary and the Wisconsin governor primary. In Indiana, six-term incumbent Dick Lugar is being challenged by a state treasurer, Richard Mourdock. Mr. Mourdock is favored by the Tea Party while Mr. Lugar is being back by the Washington establishment. Indiana is an open primary so while Mr. Mourdock is polling ahead, Mr. Lugar has asked Independents and Democrats to come vote for him. The last polls in Indiana close at 6 pm CDT (7 pm EDT), so a call in this race should be made at a reasonable hour.
The other interesting race is the Wisconsin governor's primary. Governor Scott Walker is being targeted for a recall election that will be held on June 5. However, first there is a primary to determine who the main opponents will be. Mr. Walker is nearly unopposed as his only challenger on the Republican primary ballot is the little known Arthur Kohl-Riggs (who seems to be just trying to stir the pot a little). On the Democrat side, there are five people vying to become the challenger to Mr. Walker, but the two who are most likely to win are Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett and former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk. Mr. Barrett is the more moderate Democrat and is ahead in the polls. Ms. Falk is the more liberal Democrat and will probably do very well in Madison but will need to take a large percentage of other areas to balance out Mr. Barrett's advantage in Milwaukee. Polls close at 8 pm CDT (9 EDT) but I would expect the counting to go on on the Democratic side for a little while.
Monday, May 07, 2012
Mystery Themes
One of my mom's favorite shows while I was growing up was Mystery! on PBS. At the high point of her watching, it would broadcast a lot of British serials done in the 80's and early 90's. Several of these seriels had some very distinctive themes and are quite good. I've had a devil of a time tracking a few of them down on CD, but now there is Youtube to help out.
This first one is the main theme for Inspector Adam Dauglish of the P.D. James series. I actually never cared much for these but the theme is so haunting. Finding this on CD has been absolutely impossible.
Second is Commissaire Maigret. Maigret actually has history going back to at least the 60's and his theme is established based on those. Mystery! actually broadcast a British version done in the early 90's with Michael Gambon (Dumbledore) as Maigret.
Third is the David Suchet version of Poirot. Poirot was actually made famous in the 70's and early 80's by Peter Ustinov, but David Suchet was cast in in the television serial and was highly memorable, as was the light jazzy theme.
Rounding out this round (of which I hope will be more) is Inspector Lewis. Lewis was much later as he actually started as the sergeant to Inspector Morse back in the late 80's. Morse has been so popular over the years (even after Jonathan Thaw's death) that the character was promoted and given his own show. His own sergeant is an obvious reference to Morse, reversing the relationship of the original show.
This first one is the main theme for Inspector Adam Dauglish of the P.D. James series. I actually never cared much for these but the theme is so haunting. Finding this on CD has been absolutely impossible.
Second is Commissaire Maigret. Maigret actually has history going back to at least the 60's and his theme is established based on those. Mystery! actually broadcast a British version done in the early 90's with Michael Gambon (Dumbledore) as Maigret.
Third is the David Suchet version of Poirot. Poirot was actually made famous in the 70's and early 80's by Peter Ustinov, but David Suchet was cast in in the television serial and was highly memorable, as was the light jazzy theme.
Rounding out this round (of which I hope will be more) is Inspector Lewis. Lewis was much later as he actually started as the sergeant to Inspector Morse back in the late 80's. Morse has been so popular over the years (even after Jonathan Thaw's death) that the character was promoted and given his own show. His own sergeant is an obvious reference to Morse, reversing the relationship of the original show.
Monday, April 30, 2012
Politics Perspective
I enjoy following politics, especially from the horse-race perspective. But the problem is that when you follow politics, you end up having to deal with other people who follow politics. Many are fine folk, but there are some will stand on the flimsiest points and crow and others who shriek that the skies are falling at the slightest hint that their boy is not up by more than 10 points (kind of like Ohio St. fans).
I was reminded of this fact on Friday when a poll was released about the Florida US Senate race. Bill Nelson (D) is running for a third term and his seat is being heavily targeted by the GOP. The Republican primary has not yet occurred and Rasmussen released a poll of the three GOP challengers against Mr. Nelson. Not surprisingly, all three trailed by reasonable margins. The closest match was against the GOP front-runner, Connie Mack IV (great-grandson of baseball great Connie Mack) who trails 47-36.
The results of this poll didn't surprise me. The GOP hasn't decided on a single candidate yet, Mr. Nelson is fairly popular in Florida, and it's over six months until the election. Nevertheless, the amount of wailing and gnashing of teeth from conservative poll watchers and activists is mind-blowing. There was a steady stream of diatribes on how could Florida voters be so stupid and how this spells doom for the Republican's chances to retake the Senate, etc.
Perspective is a wonderful thing. Analyzing polls at this point is less than useless and politics is one of the principle games where literally anything can happen, and usually does, in a moment's notice. It is an important lesson that it's a good idea to back away once in a while and enjoy the smell of life and not act like you will throw yourself off a cliff because your team is down by 10 in the first quarter (I'm looking at you OSU).
I was reminded of this fact on Friday when a poll was released about the Florida US Senate race. Bill Nelson (D) is running for a third term and his seat is being heavily targeted by the GOP. The Republican primary has not yet occurred and Rasmussen released a poll of the three GOP challengers against Mr. Nelson. Not surprisingly, all three trailed by reasonable margins. The closest match was against the GOP front-runner, Connie Mack IV (great-grandson of baseball great Connie Mack) who trails 47-36.
The results of this poll didn't surprise me. The GOP hasn't decided on a single candidate yet, Mr. Nelson is fairly popular in Florida, and it's over six months until the election. Nevertheless, the amount of wailing and gnashing of teeth from conservative poll watchers and activists is mind-blowing. There was a steady stream of diatribes on how could Florida voters be so stupid and how this spells doom for the Republican's chances to retake the Senate, etc.
Perspective is a wonderful thing. Analyzing polls at this point is less than useless and politics is one of the principle games where literally anything can happen, and usually does, in a moment's notice. It is an important lesson that it's a good idea to back away once in a while and enjoy the smell of life and not act like you will throw yourself off a cliff because your team is down by 10 in the first quarter (I'm looking at you OSU).
Thursday, April 26, 2012
Senate Glance
With the Republican Presidential nomination all but wrapped up and a good couple of months before we get real insight into who Mr. Romney will pick as his running mate, we can turn our attention to the Congressional races.
There's not much to say as far as the House goes. I've not been able to find a national map with the new districts and the races here in Ohio are pretty cut and dried. The Senate on the other hand, does offer some interesting examination.
The current make-up of the Senate is 53-47 with the Democrats in control. This year it just so happens that the majority of seats up for election are in Democrat hands (23-10), so their majority is in jeopardy. What really hurts the Democrats is that they are almost sure to lose at least two seats (North Dakota and Nebraska), while the Democrats are only looking at one seat likely to change hands (Maine).
To be fair, the Democrats have a fair chance at taking at least two more seats from the Republicans in Massachusetts (Scott Brown) and Nevada (Dean Heller). Brown and his Democrat challenger (Elizabeth Warren) have been trading back and forth in the polls, with neither being able to get more than a few points in the lead before the other one claws back. Heller should be a bit safer but Democrats have done better in Nevada in the past four years and if Nevada says blue in the Presidential race, it could give the Democrats a chance to take the seat.
Prospects for additional Republican pick-ups are a bit better. The prize targets are Florida (Bill Nelson), Ohio (Sherrod Brown), Missouri (Claire McCaskill), Montana (Jon Tester), and Virginia (open). I would also expect money (and a few Romney visits) to be thrown at Michigan (Debbie Stabenow), Pennsylvania (Bob Casey), West Virginia (Joe Manchin), and Wisconsin (open). If the Republicans managed to win all of these seats and only lose the Maine (open) seat (a long shot but possible), they would take control of the Senate 57-43.
I doubt that would happen, but the Democrats are going to need a strong turnout from their base and grab a good number of independent voters if they want to retain their majority in the Senate.
There's not much to say as far as the House goes. I've not been able to find a national map with the new districts and the races here in Ohio are pretty cut and dried. The Senate on the other hand, does offer some interesting examination.
The current make-up of the Senate is 53-47 with the Democrats in control. This year it just so happens that the majority of seats up for election are in Democrat hands (23-10), so their majority is in jeopardy. What really hurts the Democrats is that they are almost sure to lose at least two seats (North Dakota and Nebraska), while the Democrats are only looking at one seat likely to change hands (Maine).
To be fair, the Democrats have a fair chance at taking at least two more seats from the Republicans in Massachusetts (Scott Brown) and Nevada (Dean Heller). Brown and his Democrat challenger (Elizabeth Warren) have been trading back and forth in the polls, with neither being able to get more than a few points in the lead before the other one claws back. Heller should be a bit safer but Democrats have done better in Nevada in the past four years and if Nevada says blue in the Presidential race, it could give the Democrats a chance to take the seat.
Prospects for additional Republican pick-ups are a bit better. The prize targets are Florida (Bill Nelson), Ohio (Sherrod Brown), Missouri (Claire McCaskill), Montana (Jon Tester), and Virginia (open). I would also expect money (and a few Romney visits) to be thrown at Michigan (Debbie Stabenow), Pennsylvania (Bob Casey), West Virginia (Joe Manchin), and Wisconsin (open). If the Republicans managed to win all of these seats and only lose the Maine (open) seat (a long shot but possible), they would take control of the Senate 57-43.
I doubt that would happen, but the Democrats are going to need a strong turnout from their base and grab a good number of independent voters if they want to retain their majority in the Senate.
Wednesday, April 25, 2012
Game On: Romney Vs Obama
Reality has dawned on Newt and it is being reported that he will officially suspend his campaign and endorse Mitt Romney on May 1. Why he feels the need to wait a week is beyond me.
It is also being reported that Rick Santorum will meet with Mr. Romney next week, after he stopped just short of endorsing him last night. That just leaves Uncle Ron and we all know that he won't get out, but neither will he be any obstacle to Mr. Romney. Neither man will release their delegates (which gives them power to set things in the party platform) so Mr. Romney will still have to wait until the end of May to be declared the nominee mathematically as noted in the last post.
But for all intents and purposes, we can mark today as the true official start of the general election. Technically we could have counted the official start as two weeks ago when Mr. Santorum suspended his campaign, but Mr. Romney did still have to go through the motions and there was a question about how quickly the consolidation would take. But that is all but over now.
So how will the fight go? Dirty. We've already seen a glimpse of how the campaign will go with the whole Romney's dog on the car roof/Obama ate dog nonsense. Mr. Romney apparently gave a decent attack speech last night and we can imagine that even now the Obama campaign is dusting off the book containing all the dirt that's been collected on Mr. Romney since 1994. One can only imagine the volume of mud and s*** that we'll be dragged through in this fight.
It is also being reported that Rick Santorum will meet with Mr. Romney next week, after he stopped just short of endorsing him last night. That just leaves Uncle Ron and we all know that he won't get out, but neither will he be any obstacle to Mr. Romney. Neither man will release their delegates (which gives them power to set things in the party platform) so Mr. Romney will still have to wait until the end of May to be declared the nominee mathematically as noted in the last post.
But for all intents and purposes, we can mark today as the true official start of the general election. Technically we could have counted the official start as two weeks ago when Mr. Santorum suspended his campaign, but Mr. Romney did still have to go through the motions and there was a question about how quickly the consolidation would take. But that is all but over now.
So how will the fight go? Dirty. We've already seen a glimpse of how the campaign will go with the whole Romney's dog on the car roof/Obama ate dog nonsense. Mr. Romney apparently gave a decent attack speech last night and we can imagine that even now the Obama campaign is dusting off the book containing all the dirt that's been collected on Mr. Romney since 1994. One can only imagine the volume of mud and s*** that we'll be dragged through in this fight.
Consolidation
As expected, Mr. Romney won all five contests last night and won them handily. I was wondering if a stray county or so would turn out in protest for another candidate (especially for Uncle Ron), but that does not appear to be the case.
Pennsylvania is still sorting things out as they elect their delegates directly (with each delegate declaring whom they support), but Mr. Romney has taken 10 of the first 22 delegates available in Pennsylvania. Another 37 delegates will be assigned as they sort out the votes and the last 10 will be elected by the Pennsylvania Executive Committee in June. Nominally, these 10 along with the 3 party leaders will be "Uncommitted" but they will all fall in line and support Mr. Romney I'm sure.
The other four states were dominating wins by Mr. Romney. He took all available delegates in Connecticut, Delaware, and New York and 3/4 of the available delegates in Rhode Island (Rhode Island does not have a 50% threshold rule as New York and Connecticut do). The last 1/4 in Rhode Island (4 delegates) were taken by Uncle Ron as he was the only other candidate to break the 20% voting threshold.
So, in the hard count, Mr. Romney now has 782 delegates or 68% of what he needs. This bumps up to 844 if you include non-binding pledges and caucus estimations, which would take his percentage up to almost 74%. Mr. Santorum is still in second with 226 hard delegates. Newt is third at 138 and Uncle Ron is trying to claw his way out of fourth, having now collected 61 delegates.
Next up are the state conventions in Maine and Minnesota on May 5 which will dispense another 21 and 13 delegates respectively. I would expect Uncle Ron to take most of these. Indiana, North Carolina, and West Virginia follow with primaries on May 8.
Mathematically, Mr. Romney will not be able to clinch the nomination in any delegate count until the Texas primary. If, for some reason, he fails to get the needed delegates by then, he will certainly do it on June 5 when California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota all go to the polls.
The other four states were dominating wins by Mr. Romney. He took all available delegates in Connecticut, Delaware, and New York and 3/4 of the available delegates in Rhode Island (Rhode Island does not have a 50% threshold rule as New York and Connecticut do). The last 1/4 in Rhode Island (4 delegates) were taken by Uncle Ron as he was the only other candidate to break the 20% voting threshold.
So, in the hard count, Mr. Romney now has 782 delegates or 68% of what he needs. This bumps up to 844 if you include non-binding pledges and caucus estimations, which would take his percentage up to almost 74%. Mr. Santorum is still in second with 226 hard delegates. Newt is third at 138 and Uncle Ron is trying to claw his way out of fourth, having now collected 61 delegates.
Next up are the state conventions in Maine and Minnesota on May 5 which will dispense another 21 and 13 delegates respectively. I would expect Uncle Ron to take most of these. Indiana, North Carolina, and West Virginia follow with primaries on May 8.
Mathematically, Mr. Romney will not be able to clinch the nomination in any delegate count until the Texas primary. If, for some reason, he fails to get the needed delegates by then, he will certainly do it on June 5 when California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota all go to the polls.
Tuesday, April 24, 2012
Northeast Voting
I still don't like this new format. Makes posting harder.
The rest of New England and the upper Eastern seaboard (Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, Delaware, and Pennsylvania) go to the polls today. The majority would have gone to Mitt Romney anyway, but with Rick Santorum out of the running, things should be even clearer for Mr. Romney.
Of course, that's where the wheels start to come off. He shouldn't have any problems in Rhode Island (16 delegates), Connecticut (25 delegates), and New York (92 delegates). I'd be a bit surprised if Mr. Romney didn't win all of the New England delegates and over 80% of the New York delegates. But there is still Delaware (17 delegates) and Pennsylvania (69 delegates) to contend with.
Delaware is in consideration because Newt has been camping out for the past week there and made some allusions that this is the hill that he will die on. He's over $5 million in debt and needs something to get his name back in the papers before Indiana, North Carolina, and West Virginia (states that would not necessarily have been strong for Mr. Romney a few weeks ago) on May 8. Delaware's size makes for a good stand from an economic point of view, but there are a lot of businesses there and its political make-up is far more moderate, both advantages to Mr. Romney. It also is winner-take-all so that if Mr. Romney beats Newt by one vote, everything Newt did there is for naught in terms of actual delegates.
Pennsylvania is more of a litmus test on Mr. Romney. Polling has been highly limited since Mr. Santorum dropped out, but in what limited polling has been done, Mr. Romney has never really jumped out to any kind of lead. Mr. Santorum will still be on the ballot (and let's not forget Uncle Ron as well) for anyone to register their lack of enthusiasm for Mr. Romney. I would be highly surprised if Mr. Romney did not win the state, but if Mr. Romney fails to carry large sections of the interior of Pennsylvania, it will be a further sign that he still has a ways to go in truly consolidating the base.
Polls close at 8 pm EDT in Connecticut, Delaware, and Pennsylvania and 9 pm EDT in Rhode Island and New York.
The rest of New England and the upper Eastern seaboard (Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, Delaware, and Pennsylvania) go to the polls today. The majority would have gone to Mitt Romney anyway, but with Rick Santorum out of the running, things should be even clearer for Mr. Romney.
Of course, that's where the wheels start to come off. He shouldn't have any problems in Rhode Island (16 delegates), Connecticut (25 delegates), and New York (92 delegates). I'd be a bit surprised if Mr. Romney didn't win all of the New England delegates and over 80% of the New York delegates. But there is still Delaware (17 delegates) and Pennsylvania (69 delegates) to contend with.
Delaware is in consideration because Newt has been camping out for the past week there and made some allusions that this is the hill that he will die on. He's over $5 million in debt and needs something to get his name back in the papers before Indiana, North Carolina, and West Virginia (states that would not necessarily have been strong for Mr. Romney a few weeks ago) on May 8. Delaware's size makes for a good stand from an economic point of view, but there are a lot of businesses there and its political make-up is far more moderate, both advantages to Mr. Romney. It also is winner-take-all so that if Mr. Romney beats Newt by one vote, everything Newt did there is for naught in terms of actual delegates.
Pennsylvania is more of a litmus test on Mr. Romney. Polling has been highly limited since Mr. Santorum dropped out, but in what limited polling has been done, Mr. Romney has never really jumped out to any kind of lead. Mr. Santorum will still be on the ballot (and let's not forget Uncle Ron as well) for anyone to register their lack of enthusiasm for Mr. Romney. I would be highly surprised if Mr. Romney did not win the state, but if Mr. Romney fails to carry large sections of the interior of Pennsylvania, it will be a further sign that he still has a ways to go in truly consolidating the base.
Polls close at 8 pm EDT in Connecticut, Delaware, and Pennsylvania and 9 pm EDT in Rhode Island and New York.
Sunday, April 22, 2012
Minneosta for Paul
First, let me say that I don't like the new layout for blogger. I hope it will look better on my work computer, but I'm not hopeful.
Anyway, Minnesota is wrapping up their district caucuses today. Mr. Santorum would probably have done very well here (he took 2 of the 3 delegates in the caucus held before his withdrawal), but in his absence, Uncle Ron has ruled the roost. With 24 delegates available, Uncle Ron has taken 20. Santorum has the aforementioned 2 and 2 delegates have not declared, leaving them in the "Uncommitted" column.
Missouri also held district caucuses yesterday. With also 24 delegates available here, Mr. Romney snagged 12 delegates for a decent showing, although not as well as he would have preferred. Mr. Santorum took 7 delegates, Uncle Ron took 4, and Newt snagged 1.
Thus our updated hard numbers are 626 delegates for Mr. Romney, 223 for Mr. Santorum, 134 for Newt, and 52 for Uncle Ron.
Anyway, Minnesota is wrapping up their district caucuses today. Mr. Santorum would probably have done very well here (he took 2 of the 3 delegates in the caucus held before his withdrawal), but in his absence, Uncle Ron has ruled the roost. With 24 delegates available, Uncle Ron has taken 20. Santorum has the aforementioned 2 and 2 delegates have not declared, leaving them in the "Uncommitted" column.
Missouri also held district caucuses yesterday. With also 24 delegates available here, Mr. Romney snagged 12 delegates for a decent showing, although not as well as he would have preferred. Mr. Santorum took 7 delegates, Uncle Ron took 4, and Newt snagged 1.
Thus our updated hard numbers are 626 delegates for Mr. Romney, 223 for Mr. Santorum, 134 for Newt, and 52 for Uncle Ron.
Thursday, April 19, 2012
Minor Delegate Tidying
While reading up on a few Republican party leaders who were officially declaring themselves for Mr. Romney, I noticed a couple of changes to the delegate allocations in North Dakota, Georgia, and Alaska.
Alaska and Georgia were simple changes. Finalized vote totals had lead to a slight reallocation of delegates. Mr. Santorum picked up 1 delegate in Alaska (8 total) at the expense of Newt and Newt picked up 1 delegate in Georgia (53 total) at the expense of Mr. Romney.
North Dakota was a bit more interesting. The North Dakota state convention met on April 1 and the vote totals changed rather dramatically over the caucus results. In the original allocation, Mr. Santorum won with 11 delegates, then Uncle Ron with 8, Mr. Romney with 7, and Newt with 2. At the convention, the attendees were heavy Romney backers and managed to get more of their people elected as delegates. Thus, the final total from North Dakota is now 20 delegates for Mr. Romney, 6 delegates for Mr. Santorum, and 2 for Uncle Ron. Newt was shut out.
So, our revised totals are 614 confirmed delegates for Mr. Romney (671 if you include caucus estimations and unbound pledges), 216 for Mr. Santorum (238 including caucus estimations and unbound pledges), 133 for Newt (143 including caucus estimations and unbound pledges), and 38 for Uncle Ron (63 including caucus estimations and unbound pledges).
Missouri and Minnesota elect more delegates on Saturday so we'll have updated totals then.
Alaska and Georgia were simple changes. Finalized vote totals had lead to a slight reallocation of delegates. Mr. Santorum picked up 1 delegate in Alaska (8 total) at the expense of Newt and Newt picked up 1 delegate in Georgia (53 total) at the expense of Mr. Romney.
North Dakota was a bit more interesting. The North Dakota state convention met on April 1 and the vote totals changed rather dramatically over the caucus results. In the original allocation, Mr. Santorum won with 11 delegates, then Uncle Ron with 8, Mr. Romney with 7, and Newt with 2. At the convention, the attendees were heavy Romney backers and managed to get more of their people elected as delegates. Thus, the final total from North Dakota is now 20 delegates for Mr. Romney, 6 delegates for Mr. Santorum, and 2 for Uncle Ron. Newt was shut out.
So, our revised totals are 614 confirmed delegates for Mr. Romney (671 if you include caucus estimations and unbound pledges), 216 for Mr. Santorum (238 including caucus estimations and unbound pledges), 133 for Newt (143 including caucus estimations and unbound pledges), and 38 for Uncle Ron (63 including caucus estimations and unbound pledges).
Missouri and Minnesota elect more delegates on Saturday so we'll have updated totals then.
Tuesday, April 17, 2012
Very, Very Early Handicapping
In politics, a week is close to an eternity so you can imagine what six and half months will be like. Nevertheless, you have to start somewhere and the first maps shading the various states are starting to show up.
There are minor deviations here and there, but the initial take is that Mr. Obama is starting out with 201 electoral votes and Mr. Romney is starting out with 180.
The states currently up in the air and not counted for either side are: Arizona (11), Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Michigan (16), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), Virginia (13), and Wisconsin (10) for 157 available electoral votes.
Now, this list varies from site to site. Michigan and Wisconsin are occasionally added to Mr. Obama's column, Arizona added to Mr. Romney's column, and Missouri listed as a toss-up state. We can quibble about the edges, but it would seem that at this point anyway, that the heavy money spending and campaigning will be primarily done in the above 12 states. Any wins by either side in states outside of this list that should "belong in the other column" will be seen as a major win during the election.
Obviously expect the numbers to shift and swing wildly as the months progress.
There are minor deviations here and there, but the initial take is that Mr. Obama is starting out with 201 electoral votes and Mr. Romney is starting out with 180.
The states currently up in the air and not counted for either side are: Arizona (11), Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Michigan (16), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), Virginia (13), and Wisconsin (10) for 157 available electoral votes.
Now, this list varies from site to site. Michigan and Wisconsin are occasionally added to Mr. Obama's column, Arizona added to Mr. Romney's column, and Missouri listed as a toss-up state. We can quibble about the edges, but it would seem that at this point anyway, that the heavy money spending and campaigning will be primarily done in the above 12 states. Any wins by either side in states outside of this list that should "belong in the other column" will be seen as a major win during the election.
Obviously expect the numbers to shift and swing wildly as the months progress.
Monday, April 16, 2012
Weekend Delegate Wrap Up
Mitt Romney is going to be the Republican nominee, but he's still going to have to work at it. I noted on Saturday that about half of the Colorado district delegates punted and are going to the convention as "unpledged." He fared better at the state convention where he took 8 delegates with 4 remaining "unpledged", plus the three part leader delegates. This gives Colorado a final score of 13 delegates for Mr. Romney, 6 for Mr. Santorum, and 17 committed to no one.
Wyoming went far more as planned. Mr. Romney took all 14 of the state convention delegates to give him 22 out of 29 available delegates. The remaining 7 are 2 for Mr. Santorum, 1 for Uncle Ron, and 4 as "unpledged", although 1 of those unpledged party leaders has committed to voting for Mr. Romney.
A third contest, mostly under the radar, were three district conventions in Minnesota (for the 3rd, 5th, and 6th Congressional Districts). The 7th district had already held theirs on March 31 (resulting in 2 delegates for Mr. Santorum and 1 for Uncle Ron). The remaining 4 districts will select this Saturday (April 21). Uncle Ron swept these three districts giving him 9 more delegates.
So our final totals are now 604 actual delegates for Mr. Romney (646 projected), 220 actual delegates for Mr. Santorum, 135 actual for Newt, and 44 for Uncle Ron.
This Saturday we'll have the rest of Minnesota's district conventions (for 12 delegates) and Missouri's district conventions for 24 delegates (3 per CD).
Wyoming went far more as planned. Mr. Romney took all 14 of the state convention delegates to give him 22 out of 29 available delegates. The remaining 7 are 2 for Mr. Santorum, 1 for Uncle Ron, and 4 as "unpledged", although 1 of those unpledged party leaders has committed to voting for Mr. Romney.
A third contest, mostly under the radar, were three district conventions in Minnesota (for the 3rd, 5th, and 6th Congressional Districts). The 7th district had already held theirs on March 31 (resulting in 2 delegates for Mr. Santorum and 1 for Uncle Ron). The remaining 4 districts will select this Saturday (April 21). Uncle Ron swept these three districts giving him 9 more delegates.
So our final totals are now 604 actual delegates for Mr. Romney (646 projected), 220 actual delegates for Mr. Santorum, 135 actual for Newt, and 44 for Uncle Ron.
This Saturday we'll have the rest of Minnesota's district conventions (for 12 delegates) and Missouri's district conventions for 24 delegates (3 per CD).
Saturday, April 14, 2012
Punting?
Colorado finished their district caucuses last night. Given Mr. Santorum's recent withdrawal, one would have expected most of the delegates to be pledged to Mr. Romney. That was not the case.
No candidate took all three delegates available in each Congressional District (21 total). Mr. Romney took 5 delegates while Mr. Santorum took 6. The remaining 10 went to "unpledged". I don't know if this is what they had in mind or if those spots were thought to be for another candidate and didn't want to officially declare for Romney.
Colorado will finish it's delegate list tonight along with Wyoming. That should give us a better idea of how things are balancing out in the initial aftermath of the Santorum withdrawal.
No candidate took all three delegates available in each Congressional District (21 total). Mr. Romney took 5 delegates while Mr. Santorum took 6. The remaining 10 went to "unpledged". I don't know if this is what they had in mind or if those spots were thought to be for another candidate and didn't want to officially declare for Romney.
Colorado will finish it's delegate list tonight along with Wyoming. That should give us a better idea of how things are balancing out in the initial aftermath of the Santorum withdrawal.
Wednesday, April 11, 2012
Colorado and Wyoming Conventions
It had been my intention to post about the Colorado and Wyoming conventions that start tomorrow with the same air of dramatic interest that we'd had over the last few months. However, since Mr. Santorum has now withdrawn, the selection process will likely be heavily one-sided.
But it may not be a complete slam dunk for Mr. Romney. Mr. Santorum, despite being gracious and polite, did not officially endorse Mr. Romney. This means that he'll retain the 212 hard delegates that he has, as he has not officially released them. Although he is now essentially a non-entity, Newt is still out there and will be making a pitch for the delegates available at the various conventions and in the remaining primaries. I personally doubt he will be very successful though.
Still, tomorrow does kick off the district convention in the 7th district of Colorado (outer suburbs of Denver). At this convention, they will select three delegates while the remaining six districts in Colorado will do the same thing with the same results on Friday for a total of 21 official delegates decided.
On Saturday, the Colorado state convention will meet and they will allocate an additional 12 delegates to the convention. There will be three party leaders sent as well who will be bound by the results of the state convention. That will give 15 total delegates from the state convention and 36 delegates in total.
Also on Saturday will be the Wyoming state convention. There the remaining 14 available delegates will be allocated to the various candidates. Twelve delegates have already been assigned (8 to Mr. Romney, 2 to Mr. Santorum, 1 to Uncle Ron, and 1 uncommitted). There are also three party leaders who are officially unassigned, although 1 has stated that they will be voting for Mr. Romney.
So by this weekend we'll have 50 delegates assigned and 36 delegates taken out of the estimated column. By all logic, Mr. Romney should recieve all 50 delegates. If he does not, then it will be a sign that Mr. Romney still has some work to do to rally the conservatives. An additional tell will be if there are any similar signs of protest voting at the Missouri district convention (24 delegates to be assigned) next Saturday.
But it may not be a complete slam dunk for Mr. Romney. Mr. Santorum, despite being gracious and polite, did not officially endorse Mr. Romney. This means that he'll retain the 212 hard delegates that he has, as he has not officially released them. Although he is now essentially a non-entity, Newt is still out there and will be making a pitch for the delegates available at the various conventions and in the remaining primaries. I personally doubt he will be very successful though.
Still, tomorrow does kick off the district convention in the 7th district of Colorado (outer suburbs of Denver). At this convention, they will select three delegates while the remaining six districts in Colorado will do the same thing with the same results on Friday for a total of 21 official delegates decided.
On Saturday, the Colorado state convention will meet and they will allocate an additional 12 delegates to the convention. There will be three party leaders sent as well who will be bound by the results of the state convention. That will give 15 total delegates from the state convention and 36 delegates in total.
Also on Saturday will be the Wyoming state convention. There the remaining 14 available delegates will be allocated to the various candidates. Twelve delegates have already been assigned (8 to Mr. Romney, 2 to Mr. Santorum, 1 to Uncle Ron, and 1 uncommitted). There are also three party leaders who are officially unassigned, although 1 has stated that they will be voting for Mr. Romney.
So by this weekend we'll have 50 delegates assigned and 36 delegates taken out of the estimated column. By all logic, Mr. Romney should recieve all 50 delegates. If he does not, then it will be a sign that Mr. Romney still has some work to do to rally the conservatives. An additional tell will be if there are any similar signs of protest voting at the Missouri district convention (24 delegates to be assigned) next Saturday.
Tuesday, April 10, 2012
Game Over!
Rick Santorum has suspended his campaign.
He'll still be able to raise money to pay off his debt but this now leaves Mitt Romney as the last man standing. Newt and Uncle Ron are still technically in the race but they are non-entities at this point.
Let the general election campaign commence.
He'll still be able to raise money to pay off his debt but this now leaves Mitt Romney as the last man standing. Newt and Uncle Ron are still technically in the race but they are non-entities at this point.
Let the general election campaign commence.
Friday, April 06, 2012
Veep Considerations
Mitt Romney has officially crossed the 50% line in the delegate totals and it is highly likely that he'll be tacking on between 150-200 delegates in another two and a half weeks. This would bring him to 2/3 of the required delegates with the bonanzas of Texas and California still waiting.
Given all of that, talk has started to drift from the actual Republican nominating contest to who would be a good Vice Presidential candidate. Talk has swirled around a number of people, several who are more likely than others. I'm going to leave out anyone who has actually run for President this term as they have been discussed ad naseum. Here are named contestant in alphabetical order:
1. Chris Christie (Gov-NJ) - Christie was one of Mr. Romney's earliest supporters and is a perfect attack dog. However, being from New Jersey doesn't do anything for Mr. Romney. He's also not any further to the Right that Mr. Romney is on the various issues that threaten to keep the Republican base at home. Mr. Romney might be comfortable with Mr. Christie, but he doesn't gain anything outside of that.
2. Mitch Daniels (Gov-IN) - Daniels is a long shot as I doubt he (or his wife) would be any more interested on the ticket as a #2 as opposed to the #1 slot. Daniels would help Mr. Romney in the Midwest as he is a bit more folksy than Mr. Romney has ever managed to be. However, he also is not much to the Right of Mr. Romney on the key issues in terms of generating base enthusiasm. Mr. Daniels also has failed to impress as an attack dog and that is the primary role of a Vice Presidential candidate in the election. The Daniels talk is mostly done by those who favored him for President last year.
3. Nikki Haley (Gov-SC) - Ms. Haley was, at one point, a Tea Party darling and seen as having honest cred with the hard Right. However, she has recently got under their skin, first by openly supporting Mr. Romney during the South Carolina primary and then through a series of decisions that have not slashed the budget as much as Tea Party folks hoped. She also was only elected governor in 2010, giving her little executive experience. In many ways, her selection would be Sarah Palin all over again. Ms. Haley did serve in Congress prior to the governorship, but she will likely be seen as too green to take the Veep spot.
4. Bobby Jindal (Gov-LA) - Mr. Jindal recently won reelection as governor of Louisiana, giving him executive seasoning. He also is a Southern governor with a strong social conservative streak that Mr. Romney is seen as a bit weak on. He also adds a bit of diversity, being of Indian ancestry. I don't know what his relationship with Mr. Romney is as Mr. Jindal backed Governor Perry early on and then went neutral after he dropped out.
5. Rob Portman (Sen-OH) - Portman would fall in the same area as Mr. Daniels and Mr. Christie. Ideologically he is in the same ballpark as Mr. Romney, perhaps with shades a bit to the Right. He also gives Mr. Romney a tie to the Midwest. One edge he has over Mr. Daniels is that Mr. Portman has been in Washington for almost 20 years and knows the ins and outs that Mr. Romney does not. The major downside is that even four years later, Mr. Portman is still heavily tied to the Bush administration and he suffers on both the Right and the Left as a result.
6. Marco Rubio (Sen-FL) - Mr. Rubio has been the hot pick of the conservative media. He is young and energetic. He is Hispanic and goes after the Left in attack dog fashion that appeals to the Right. He also is from Florida and could tie that state down for Mr. Romney. However, he is still fairly green in terms of national experience. He also has come out several times and said that he will not accept the Vice-Presidential nomination. So despite what people talk about, his candidacy seems to be a non-starter.
7. Paul Ryan (Rep-WI) - Mr. Ryan falls mainly in the same camp as Mr. Portman. He has been in Washington for 13 years and is a member of the senior leadership of the House. He also is from a Midwestern state that will be a battleground come November. Unlike Mr. Portman, Mr. Ryan is popular with the Tea Party and has produced several ads designed to both promote the Republican budget plan and attack Mr. Obama. These as have been popular enough in Conservative circles to cause much wailing that Mr. Ryan is running for the top job himself. The one point that the selection of Mr. Ryan would do, is to ensure that Mr. Romney is planting his campaign flag on economic issues. Mr. Ryan has become so synonymous with budget battles over the past years that money is his main talking point (despite being just as conservative on social issues).
8. Allen West (Rep-FL) - Mr. West is very popular with Conservative media. He is a retired army colonel and African-American. He also has given quite a few fiery conservative attack speeches both during his initial campaign and since winning his seat in 2010. However, he is quite green in terms of political experience and it is unlikely that his being on the ticket would even cause much drift in Florida.
I have a guess as to which candidate (assuming he only works with this list) that Mr. Romney will favor. Time will tell and the nature of the campaign may drive one more towards him than originally thought.
*UPDATE*
Literally within an hour of hitting publish, I see this story from Politico. GOP strategists appear to favor Mr. Portman and also throw Susana Martinez (Gov-NM) into the mix. Ms. Martinez would also be a long shot, due to lack of national experience, and has also stated that she would decline the offer if extended.
Given all of that, talk has started to drift from the actual Republican nominating contest to who would be a good Vice Presidential candidate. Talk has swirled around a number of people, several who are more likely than others. I'm going to leave out anyone who has actually run for President this term as they have been discussed ad naseum. Here are named contestant in alphabetical order:
1. Chris Christie (Gov-NJ) - Christie was one of Mr. Romney's earliest supporters and is a perfect attack dog. However, being from New Jersey doesn't do anything for Mr. Romney. He's also not any further to the Right that Mr. Romney is on the various issues that threaten to keep the Republican base at home. Mr. Romney might be comfortable with Mr. Christie, but he doesn't gain anything outside of that.
2. Mitch Daniels (Gov-IN) - Daniels is a long shot as I doubt he (or his wife) would be any more interested on the ticket as a #2 as opposed to the #1 slot. Daniels would help Mr. Romney in the Midwest as he is a bit more folksy than Mr. Romney has ever managed to be. However, he also is not much to the Right of Mr. Romney on the key issues in terms of generating base enthusiasm. Mr. Daniels also has failed to impress as an attack dog and that is the primary role of a Vice Presidential candidate in the election. The Daniels talk is mostly done by those who favored him for President last year.
3. Nikki Haley (Gov-SC) - Ms. Haley was, at one point, a Tea Party darling and seen as having honest cred with the hard Right. However, she has recently got under their skin, first by openly supporting Mr. Romney during the South Carolina primary and then through a series of decisions that have not slashed the budget as much as Tea Party folks hoped. She also was only elected governor in 2010, giving her little executive experience. In many ways, her selection would be Sarah Palin all over again. Ms. Haley did serve in Congress prior to the governorship, but she will likely be seen as too green to take the Veep spot.
4. Bobby Jindal (Gov-LA) - Mr. Jindal recently won reelection as governor of Louisiana, giving him executive seasoning. He also is a Southern governor with a strong social conservative streak that Mr. Romney is seen as a bit weak on. He also adds a bit of diversity, being of Indian ancestry. I don't know what his relationship with Mr. Romney is as Mr. Jindal backed Governor Perry early on and then went neutral after he dropped out.
5. Rob Portman (Sen-OH) - Portman would fall in the same area as Mr. Daniels and Mr. Christie. Ideologically he is in the same ballpark as Mr. Romney, perhaps with shades a bit to the Right. He also gives Mr. Romney a tie to the Midwest. One edge he has over Mr. Daniels is that Mr. Portman has been in Washington for almost 20 years and knows the ins and outs that Mr. Romney does not. The major downside is that even four years later, Mr. Portman is still heavily tied to the Bush administration and he suffers on both the Right and the Left as a result.
6. Marco Rubio (Sen-FL) - Mr. Rubio has been the hot pick of the conservative media. He is young and energetic. He is Hispanic and goes after the Left in attack dog fashion that appeals to the Right. He also is from Florida and could tie that state down for Mr. Romney. However, he is still fairly green in terms of national experience. He also has come out several times and said that he will not accept the Vice-Presidential nomination. So despite what people talk about, his candidacy seems to be a non-starter.
7. Paul Ryan (Rep-WI) - Mr. Ryan falls mainly in the same camp as Mr. Portman. He has been in Washington for 13 years and is a member of the senior leadership of the House. He also is from a Midwestern state that will be a battleground come November. Unlike Mr. Portman, Mr. Ryan is popular with the Tea Party and has produced several ads designed to both promote the Republican budget plan and attack Mr. Obama. These as have been popular enough in Conservative circles to cause much wailing that Mr. Ryan is running for the top job himself. The one point that the selection of Mr. Ryan would do, is to ensure that Mr. Romney is planting his campaign flag on economic issues. Mr. Ryan has become so synonymous with budget battles over the past years that money is his main talking point (despite being just as conservative on social issues).
8. Allen West (Rep-FL) - Mr. West is very popular with Conservative media. He is a retired army colonel and African-American. He also has given quite a few fiery conservative attack speeches both during his initial campaign and since winning his seat in 2010. However, he is quite green in terms of political experience and it is unlikely that his being on the ticket would even cause much drift in Florida.
I have a guess as to which candidate (assuming he only works with this list) that Mr. Romney will favor. Time will tell and the nature of the campaign may drive one more towards him than originally thought.
*UPDATE*
Literally within an hour of hitting publish, I see this story from Politico. GOP strategists appear to favor Mr. Portman and also throw Susana Martinez (Gov-NM) into the mix. Ms. Martinez would also be a long shot, due to lack of national experience, and has also stated that she would decline the offer if extended.
Wednesday, April 04, 2012
Romney Sweeps
As expected, Mitt Romney won Maryland, Washington DC, and Wisconsin.
Mr. Romney took all 16 delegates from DC, all 37 from Maryland, and 33 from Wisconsin. His total delegate allocation is now 625 in the projected total and 577 in the hard total. In the hard total, Mr. Romney is now at 50.4% of the needed delegates.
Mr. Santorum was shut out in DC and Maryland, and only took 9 from Wisconsin. His delegate total is now at 262 projected and 212 in the hard total.
Next up is the district and state conventions in Colorado starting April 12 and running through April 14. 21 delegates will be assigned at the district level on the 12th and 13th, while the remaining 12 are assigned at the state convention on the 14th. Estimated allocation is 13 to Mr. Santorum, 12 to Mr. Romney, and 4 each to Uncle Ron and Newt. These estimations will probably be thrown completely out the window once the actual hard allocations begin.
April 14 will also see the remaining 14 Wyoming delegates assigned at their state convention. Mr. Romney is expected to take the bulk of those delegates.
Mr. Romney took all 16 delegates from DC, all 37 from Maryland, and 33 from Wisconsin. His total delegate allocation is now 625 in the projected total and 577 in the hard total. In the hard total, Mr. Romney is now at 50.4% of the needed delegates.
Mr. Santorum was shut out in DC and Maryland, and only took 9 from Wisconsin. His delegate total is now at 262 projected and 212 in the hard total.
Next up is the district and state conventions in Colorado starting April 12 and running through April 14. 21 delegates will be assigned at the district level on the 12th and 13th, while the remaining 12 are assigned at the state convention on the 14th. Estimated allocation is 13 to Mr. Santorum, 12 to Mr. Romney, and 4 each to Uncle Ron and Newt. These estimations will probably be thrown completely out the window once the actual hard allocations begin.
April 14 will also see the remaining 14 Wyoming delegates assigned at their state convention. Mr. Romney is expected to take the bulk of those delegates.
Tuesday, April 03, 2012
Fatal Blow Tonight?
Maryland, Washington DC, and Wisconsin go to the polls today. Maryland and DC should go for Mr. Romney easily and the polls are suggesting that he will take Wisconsin as well.
DC is winner-take-all of 16 delegates (and Mr. Santorum is not on the ballot) so we can just give those to Mr. Romney.
Maryland is winner-take-all for 13 delegates and 3 delegates for each of the 8 Congressional Districts (for a total of 37 delegates). Mr. Romney should take the overall and probably the majority of the districts. I would expect Mr. Romney to take upwards of 31 delegates from Maryland.
Wisconsin will be a bit closer but Mr. Romney is favored in all the polls. Wisconsin is winner-take-all for 18 delegates and, like Maryland, gives 3 delegates for the winner of each Congressional District. This puts 42 delegates in play. If Mr. Romney wins a majority of the CDs, he'll earn upwards of 33 delegates.
Lumping it all together, Mr. Romney is looking at picking up around 80 of the 98 available delegates. That should push Mr. Romney's total number of delegates to over 600 among the projected numbers and close to 575 on the hard numbers. Either way, he'll have crossed the 50% threshold with the even more favorable terrain of Connecticut, Delaware, Rhode Island, and New York to look forward to on the 24th.
This will not be a true fatal blow to Mr. Santorum, but consensus does seem to be strengthening around Mr. Romney and the numbers are starting to fully break his way. If Mr. Santorum can keep some money flowing in, he'll probably rebound a bit in May, but the math is starting to look solid that Mr. Romney will mathematically lock things up by the time that things wrap up in June.
DC is winner-take-all of 16 delegates (and Mr. Santorum is not on the ballot) so we can just give those to Mr. Romney.
Maryland is winner-take-all for 13 delegates and 3 delegates for each of the 8 Congressional Districts (for a total of 37 delegates). Mr. Romney should take the overall and probably the majority of the districts. I would expect Mr. Romney to take upwards of 31 delegates from Maryland.
Wisconsin will be a bit closer but Mr. Romney is favored in all the polls. Wisconsin is winner-take-all for 18 delegates and, like Maryland, gives 3 delegates for the winner of each Congressional District. This puts 42 delegates in play. If Mr. Romney wins a majority of the CDs, he'll earn upwards of 33 delegates.
Lumping it all together, Mr. Romney is looking at picking up around 80 of the 98 available delegates. That should push Mr. Romney's total number of delegates to over 600 among the projected numbers and close to 575 on the hard numbers. Either way, he'll have crossed the 50% threshold with the even more favorable terrain of Connecticut, Delaware, Rhode Island, and New York to look forward to on the 24th.
This will not be a true fatal blow to Mr. Santorum, but consensus does seem to be strengthening around Mr. Romney and the numbers are starting to fully break his way. If Mr. Santorum can keep some money flowing in, he'll probably rebound a bit in May, but the math is starting to look solid that Mr. Romney will mathematically lock things up by the time that things wrap up in June.
Thursday, March 29, 2012
Clarification on Severability
I've been reading a bit on the three day Supreme Court hearings about Obamacare. The first day dealt with the definition of the mandate as whether it is a tax or not. Should it be ruled a tax, the rest of the case gets thrown out because a tax law cannot be challenged in court until at least one year after the tax is collected and the taxes in Obamacare are not collected until 2014.
Day two of the hearings dealt directly with the mandate and whether or not it violates the Commerce Clause of the 14th Amendment. Day three dealt with the lack of a severability clause in the law. It was specifically about the severability clause that I got some edification today.
I was under the impression (I think like most people) that a severability clause is inserted into a bill so that if one part of a law is determined to be unconstitutional then only that part is thrown out and the rest of the law is still good. However, that doesn't seem to be the case. A severability clause is included to denote the intention of Congress that should a portion of the law be found unconstitutional, they don't care if that part is struck out. If they want it, they'll go back and pass it as a separate law in a restructured manner.
The lack of a severability clause, and in this case it was intentionally left out, denotes that it is Congress' intention that they are not kosher with any portion of the law being struck out and therefore intend that if any one part goes down, the whole thing goes down. In the case of Obamacare, the severability clause was left out because the mandate is how this thing is paid for. If it is struck out, the whole thing has no way to pay for itself and will drive itself out of control economically.
Now, whether the Supreme Court sees it quite that way is another question. They could choose to override Congress' opinion and say that the law is still ok even if the mandate is struck down. I doubt it will because so much of the law is layered on top of each other that if the mandate goes, the rest of the law will collapse in a tangled mess of unreferenced strings (think of it as program code with a series of unclosed "if statements").
My own personal opinion is that everything hinges on the second day arguments. I think the Supremes will will rule (perhaps 9-0) that the mandate is not a tax, because it doesn't fit that definition. Plus, they're itching to go at this thing so they're not going to punt this thing three years down the road. If they were interested in punting, they never would have fast-tracked the case to this session.
So it comes down to how the mandate relates to the Commerce Clause. I think it will go 5-4, but I'm not sure as to which way Justice Kennedy will swing. He gave indications during oral arguments that could be read as positive and negative for both sides. We'll find out in June.
Day two of the hearings dealt directly with the mandate and whether or not it violates the Commerce Clause of the 14th Amendment. Day three dealt with the lack of a severability clause in the law. It was specifically about the severability clause that I got some edification today.
I was under the impression (I think like most people) that a severability clause is inserted into a bill so that if one part of a law is determined to be unconstitutional then only that part is thrown out and the rest of the law is still good. However, that doesn't seem to be the case. A severability clause is included to denote the intention of Congress that should a portion of the law be found unconstitutional, they don't care if that part is struck out. If they want it, they'll go back and pass it as a separate law in a restructured manner.
The lack of a severability clause, and in this case it was intentionally left out, denotes that it is Congress' intention that they are not kosher with any portion of the law being struck out and therefore intend that if any one part goes down, the whole thing goes down. In the case of Obamacare, the severability clause was left out because the mandate is how this thing is paid for. If it is struck out, the whole thing has no way to pay for itself and will drive itself out of control economically.
Now, whether the Supreme Court sees it quite that way is another question. They could choose to override Congress' opinion and say that the law is still ok even if the mandate is struck down. I doubt it will because so much of the law is layered on top of each other that if the mandate goes, the rest of the law will collapse in a tangled mess of unreferenced strings (think of it as program code with a series of unclosed "if statements").
My own personal opinion is that everything hinges on the second day arguments. I think the Supremes will will rule (perhaps 9-0) that the mandate is not a tax, because it doesn't fit that definition. Plus, they're itching to go at this thing so they're not going to punt this thing three years down the road. If they were interested in punting, they never would have fast-tracked the case to this session.
So it comes down to how the mandate relates to the Commerce Clause. I think it will go 5-4, but I'm not sure as to which way Justice Kennedy will swing. He gave indications during oral arguments that could be read as positive and negative for both sides. We'll find out in June.
Monday, March 26, 2012
Santorum Goes Cajun
On Saturday, Rick Santorum won the Louisiana Primary with 49% of the vote. Mr. Romney came in second at 27%, while Newt finished a very disappointing third at 16%.
Louisiana was only doling out 20 of it's 46 delegates at this point. Because of a 25% threshold rule, Mr. Santorum will receive 10 delegates, Mr. Romney 5, and the remaining 5 will be unbound. The rest will be assigned at the state convention on June 2.
We now go into a lull week before picking back up again. Next Tuesday (April 3) will see Washington DC, Maryland, and Wisconsin vote. That will be followed by the district convention in Colorado and the state convention in Wyoming on April 14 where actual delegates will be selected.
In all likelihood, this will be where Mr. Romney mathematically eliminates Mr. Santorum from winning the nomination outright. Mr. Santorum (and Newt if he's still in it) will be playing prevent defense after that to simply deny Mr. Romney the nomination on the first ballot and force things through multiple convention votes. How successful that strategy will be remains to be seen.
Louisiana was only doling out 20 of it's 46 delegates at this point. Because of a 25% threshold rule, Mr. Santorum will receive 10 delegates, Mr. Romney 5, and the remaining 5 will be unbound. The rest will be assigned at the state convention on June 2.
We now go into a lull week before picking back up again. Next Tuesday (April 3) will see Washington DC, Maryland, and Wisconsin vote. That will be followed by the district convention in Colorado and the state convention in Wyoming on April 14 where actual delegates will be selected.
In all likelihood, this will be where Mr. Romney mathematically eliminates Mr. Santorum from winning the nomination outright. Mr. Santorum (and Newt if he's still in it) will be playing prevent defense after that to simply deny Mr. Romney the nomination on the first ballot and force things through multiple convention votes. How successful that strategy will be remains to be seen.
Friday, March 23, 2012
Thursday, March 22, 2012
France Nearly Surrenders to Lone Gunman
Poor France. They tried to surrender but just couldn't quite do it.
Mohammad Merah murdered seven people (3 soldiers, 3 Jewish children, and 1 rabbi) over the course of a week. French police managed to corner Merah in an apartment building and then started to negotiate. Merah strung the French police along, telling them he would come out after dark and then reneging. The police were no better as they threatened to storm the building, started to attack, and then backed off.
After nearly 32 hours, someone in the police department grew a pair and ordered the men in. Merah pinned himself in a bathroom and came out guns blazing. Overwhelmed by the ferocity of the attack, the police retreated. Merah then attempted to get away by jumping out a window. It has not yet been released as to whether Merah was killed due to the fall or if he was shot while climbing out the window. The police are stating that they did have snipers on the surrounding buildings so it is possible (and probably likely) that a sniper took him out while he was climbing out the window.
Props to the men who took out the scumbag but there is no way he should have been able to hold the police off as long as he did. Not only did it give him a platform to parade on but it gave him far too much time to set booby traps and other nasty surprises had he been so inclined. The French got lucky that only two of their men were injured in the attack. Hopefully they learn from this and if it happens again, they will act quicker and more decisively.
Mohammad Merah murdered seven people (3 soldiers, 3 Jewish children, and 1 rabbi) over the course of a week. French police managed to corner Merah in an apartment building and then started to negotiate. Merah strung the French police along, telling them he would come out after dark and then reneging. The police were no better as they threatened to storm the building, started to attack, and then backed off.
After nearly 32 hours, someone in the police department grew a pair and ordered the men in. Merah pinned himself in a bathroom and came out guns blazing. Overwhelmed by the ferocity of the attack, the police retreated. Merah then attempted to get away by jumping out a window. It has not yet been released as to whether Merah was killed due to the fall or if he was shot while climbing out the window. The police are stating that they did have snipers on the surrounding buildings so it is possible (and probably likely) that a sniper took him out while he was climbing out the window.
Props to the men who took out the scumbag but there is no way he should have been able to hold the police off as long as he did. Not only did it give him a platform to parade on but it gave him far too much time to set booby traps and other nasty surprises had he been so inclined. The French got lucky that only two of their men were injured in the attack. Hopefully they learn from this and if it happens again, they will act quicker and more decisively.
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
Timmy and the Jets
Tim Tebow has been traded to the NY Jets for a 4th round draft pick.
I have to admit, this trade makes no sense to me whatsoever. Mark Sanchez was recently resigned to a considerable contract and despite having a "meh" year last year, he was good enough his first two years to get the Jets to the AFC Championship game. What's more, Sanchez is a bit of a fragile ego. He's going to be feeling the heat on this one quickly. If he screws up at all, the Jets fans will be screaming for Tebow to come in and that will only accelerate Sanchez's spiral.
There is also the culture clash. Coach Rex Ryan is one of the most foul-mouthed coaches out there and the Jets are somewhat known for being bad boys both on and off the field. Maybe not as bad as the Raiders but pretty close. Now you throw in the choir boy who openly prays on the sidelines. He may not say anything but his presence and actions may act as more of an irritant rather than an aid.
If I were a Jets fan (and I'm not) I'd actually be quite worried about what the heck the front office is thinking on this one.
I have to admit, this trade makes no sense to me whatsoever. Mark Sanchez was recently resigned to a considerable contract and despite having a "meh" year last year, he was good enough his first two years to get the Jets to the AFC Championship game. What's more, Sanchez is a bit of a fragile ego. He's going to be feeling the heat on this one quickly. If he screws up at all, the Jets fans will be screaming for Tebow to come in and that will only accelerate Sanchez's spiral.
There is also the culture clash. Coach Rex Ryan is one of the most foul-mouthed coaches out there and the Jets are somewhat known for being bad boys both on and off the field. Maybe not as bad as the Raiders but pretty close. Now you throw in the choir boy who openly prays on the sidelines. He may not say anything but his presence and actions may act as more of an irritant rather than an aid.
If I were a Jets fan (and I'm not) I'd actually be quite worried about what the heck the front office is thinking on this one.
Fait Accompli?
Mr. Romney has about a 300 delegate lead over Mr. Santorum and is close to 50% of the total delegates that he needs to secure the nomination. What's more, if you look ahead to the schedule in April, things are looking pretty rosy for Mr. Romney.
In the month of April, there will be primaries/caucuses in Washington DC, Maryland, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Delaware, Rhode Island, New York, and Pennsylvania. What's more, several of these contests are winner-take-all (either outright, or per each Congressional District). I would expect Mr. Romney to win almost all of these contests, with only Wisconsin and Pennsylvania offering an opportunity for Mr. Santorum to win (and I wouldn't bet large sums on those two states).
Mr. Santorum can console himself somewhat in that the geography favors him in May (Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Oregon, Nebraska, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Texas), but that might not matter after the beating that he will take in April.
Does that mean that Mr. Romney has already achieved fait accompli? No, but he's pretty close. After April, Mr. Romney will have essentially mathematically eliminated Mr. Santorum and Newt (should he still be in it). But it is still better than 50-50 that Mr. Romney will not reach 1144 bound delegates by the time the Utah delegates are assigned on June 26.
He will probably be very close. I'd be willing to bet that he will be somewhere between 1050 and 1100 delegates. If that is the case, the unbound party delegates will almost certainly unite behind him and push him over the top. There will be a lot of grumbling about that among the base (party elders picking the candidate) but everyone will fall in line as the general kicks in to gear.
If Mr. Santorum wishes to thwart this scenario and ensure that Mr. Romney does not secure the nomination on the first ballot of the convention, he probably needs to keep Mr. Romney at least 100 delegates away from the nomination. If he could somehow keep him below 1000 delegates, that would be gravy. Once the first ballot is over, almost all bound delegates are released and can vote however they choose to go (or are persuaded to go).
To accomplish this, Mr. Santorum will need to seize Mr. Romney's delegates in the caucuses where things are unsettled and bleed Mr. Romney in the proportional states. This is especially true in New York and California. Ideally, he would crush Mr. Romney in Texas as well.
I would not give high odds on this happening, but it does give an insight in to how it could happen. This gives an insight into the mindset of the Santorum camp as to how they think they will swing the nomination. Odder things have happened, but Occam's Razor...
In the month of April, there will be primaries/caucuses in Washington DC, Maryland, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Delaware, Rhode Island, New York, and Pennsylvania. What's more, several of these contests are winner-take-all (either outright, or per each Congressional District). I would expect Mr. Romney to win almost all of these contests, with only Wisconsin and Pennsylvania offering an opportunity for Mr. Santorum to win (and I wouldn't bet large sums on those two states).
Mr. Santorum can console himself somewhat in that the geography favors him in May (Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Oregon, Nebraska, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Texas), but that might not matter after the beating that he will take in April.
Does that mean that Mr. Romney has already achieved fait accompli? No, but he's pretty close. After April, Mr. Romney will have essentially mathematically eliminated Mr. Santorum and Newt (should he still be in it). But it is still better than 50-50 that Mr. Romney will not reach 1144 bound delegates by the time the Utah delegates are assigned on June 26.
He will probably be very close. I'd be willing to bet that he will be somewhere between 1050 and 1100 delegates. If that is the case, the unbound party delegates will almost certainly unite behind him and push him over the top. There will be a lot of grumbling about that among the base (party elders picking the candidate) but everyone will fall in line as the general kicks in to gear.
If Mr. Santorum wishes to thwart this scenario and ensure that Mr. Romney does not secure the nomination on the first ballot of the convention, he probably needs to keep Mr. Romney at least 100 delegates away from the nomination. If he could somehow keep him below 1000 delegates, that would be gravy. Once the first ballot is over, almost all bound delegates are released and can vote however they choose to go (or are persuaded to go).
To accomplish this, Mr. Santorum will need to seize Mr. Romney's delegates in the caucuses where things are unsettled and bleed Mr. Romney in the proportional states. This is especially true in New York and California. Ideally, he would crush Mr. Romney in Texas as well.
I would not give high odds on this happening, but it does give an insight in to how it could happen. This gives an insight into the mindset of the Santorum camp as to how they think they will swing the nomination. Odder things have happened, but Occam's Razor...
Romney Wins Illinois
As expected, Mitt Romney won Illinois. I was actually quite surprised that the networks didn't call it at 8 pm (they instead called it about 45 minutes later). Romney won fairly handily (47-35) and took 42 of the 54 available delegates. His hard total now stands at 485 although when you factor in caucus projections and verbal pledges from various unbound delegates he creeps up to about 545. This is about 300 delegates ahead of Mr. Santorum's total.
Next we have Louisiana on Saturday. We should also get the results from the Missouri caucuses. Those delegates are only to the district and state convention so their technically is still no allocation to any candidate. We won't get that until April 21. Then we have a reprieve until April 3 when Maryland, Wisconsin, and Washington DC all have their contests.
The big question that is floating around is when Newt will be forced to suspend his campaign. He is now officially running in the red and since nearly everyone but him sees the writing on the wall, his campaign donations are drying up. His major SuperPAC donor has also stated that he will no longer be giving that entity any more money. In all likelihood, Newt will limp through Louisiana and then cease to actively campaign. Whether he formally suspends his campaign is questionable, but economic reality will prevent him from doing anything other than keep his name on the ballot.
Next we have Louisiana on Saturday. We should also get the results from the Missouri caucuses. Those delegates are only to the district and state convention so their technically is still no allocation to any candidate. We won't get that until April 21. Then we have a reprieve until April 3 when Maryland, Wisconsin, and Washington DC all have their contests.
The big question that is floating around is when Newt will be forced to suspend his campaign. He is now officially running in the red and since nearly everyone but him sees the writing on the wall, his campaign donations are drying up. His major SuperPAC donor has also stated that he will no longer be giving that entity any more money. In all likelihood, Newt will limp through Louisiana and then cease to actively campaign. Whether he formally suspends his campaign is questionable, but economic reality will prevent him from doing anything other than keep his name on the ballot.
Tuesday, March 20, 2012
Illinois Today
Today is the Republican primary in Illinois. Most polls show Mr. Romney winning easily, the only question will be the margin. What's more, Mr. Santorum failed to file enough signatures in four Congressional districts, making him ineligible for 10 of the 54 available delegates. Those will likely go to Mr. Romney, unless there is a large Newt protest vote. Polls close at 7 pm CDT (8 pm EDT).
Also over the weekend were the Puerto Rico caucuses. Mr. Romney won those by 74 points (82-8) and was awarded all 20 delegates.
Missouri is holding caucuses as well. Most of them occurred on Saturday with a rather entertaining fight breaking out at the one in St. Charles when a few Ron Paul supporters took umbrage with the caucus rules against filming the proceedings. A few people were arrested and the caucus was cancelled. I have no idea if they'll make it up before the caucuses end this Saturday. Like the primary back in February, the caucus is non-binding but at least it is electing delegates to the district and state conventions. The district convention meets on April 21 and will pick 24 of the 49 available delegates while the remaining 25 are selected at the June 2 state convention.
So, for recap, Mr. Romney has 491 (443 confirmed) delegates while Mr. Santorum has 232 (182 confirmed). Newt and Uncle Ron are still out there but they are starting to fade further and further into the background. Mr. Romney has almost 43% of the delegates he needs to secure the win and geography and primary style suggest that he will do well in April. I don't think he will be able to win mathematically until June (depending on how he does in California) but I don't see a situation where he will lose his mantle of front-runner for the duration.
Also over the weekend were the Puerto Rico caucuses. Mr. Romney won those by 74 points (82-8) and was awarded all 20 delegates.
Missouri is holding caucuses as well. Most of them occurred on Saturday with a rather entertaining fight breaking out at the one in St. Charles when a few Ron Paul supporters took umbrage with the caucus rules against filming the proceedings. A few people were arrested and the caucus was cancelled. I have no idea if they'll make it up before the caucuses end this Saturday. Like the primary back in February, the caucus is non-binding but at least it is electing delegates to the district and state conventions. The district convention meets on April 21 and will pick 24 of the 49 available delegates while the remaining 25 are selected at the June 2 state convention.
So, for recap, Mr. Romney has 491 (443 confirmed) delegates while Mr. Santorum has 232 (182 confirmed). Newt and Uncle Ron are still out there but they are starting to fade further and further into the background. Mr. Romney has almost 43% of the delegates he needs to secure the win and geography and primary style suggest that he will do well in April. I don't think he will be able to win mathematically until June (depending on how he does in California) but I don't see a situation where he will lose his mantle of front-runner for the duration.
Monday, March 19, 2012
Awww... the Denver Broncos!
What? I think owning the Denver Broncos is pretty good.
*Sigh* Marge you just don't understand football.
Whispers are swirling that Petyon Manning's agent is hashing out a deal with the Denver Broncos. Denver has a good defense, but I hope they plan on adding some muscle to the offensive line or Mr. Manning is going to be on his back a lot.
Meanwhile, where does this leave Tim Tebow? Because the Denver ownership is so dead set against Mr. Tebow, they're almost certain to trade him. Jacksonville makes the most sense as Mr. Tebow is still a god in Florida and his style of play is more suited to that offense. The Jaguars do already have a first round pick that they've been working for the past year, but he might get included in some sort of trade deal. We shall have to see.
*Sigh* Marge you just don't understand football.
Whispers are swirling that Petyon Manning's agent is hashing out a deal with the Denver Broncos. Denver has a good defense, but I hope they plan on adding some muscle to the offensive line or Mr. Manning is going to be on his back a lot.
Meanwhile, where does this leave Tim Tebow? Because the Denver ownership is so dead set against Mr. Tebow, they're almost certain to trade him. Jacksonville makes the most sense as Mr. Tebow is still a god in Florida and his style of play is more suited to that offense. The Jaguars do already have a first round pick that they've been working for the past year, but he might get included in some sort of trade deal. We shall have to see.
Wednesday, March 14, 2012
Orchestral Zelda
This is what happens when video game nerds grow up and learn how to compose and play instruments well. Fun and amusing.
Sweater Vests in the South
In a minor upset, Mr. Santorum won both the Alabama and Mississippi primaries. Going in to the contests all polls showed things as being very tight, although Mr. Santorum had never shown a lead in Mississippi and hadn't registered a lead in Alabama since Wednesday (Alabama St. 3/7). Newt ended up being a very close second in Mississippi and a slightly less close second in Alabama. Mr. Romney finished a disappointing third in both contests (especially as CNN's initial exit polls showed him winning Mississippi).
Still, I can't imagine that Mr. Romney feels too bad as he won both Hawaii and American Samoa as expected. The final numbers are still being digested in both Alabama and Hawaii, but it appears that with these two wins and a strong showing (even at third place) in the South, Mr. Romney will take the most delegates from the day. Mr. Romney is currently holding 39 delegates for the night, while Mr. Santorum has 32 and Newt has 24. Uncle Ron did manage to snag 1 Hawaii delegate with 14 delegates still to be allocated (most of those from Alabama).
With his failure to actually win the states, the talk is starting to get louder that Newt is to withdraw from the field. I still think that is unlikely at the moment. Newt came very close to winning Mississippi and I don't believe that his ego will allow him to drop out until he has at least contested Missouri (this Saturday) and Louisiana (next Saturday). Still, expect the calls for Newt to withdraw and endorse Mr. Santorum to only get louder as the contest continues.
As noted above, the Missouri caucus is this Saturday. This time it won't be a cakewalk for Mr. Santorum as it was during the primary. Mr. Romney will actually be trying this time and Newt will be an option (unless he withdraws before Saturday). Puerto Rico in on Sunday and that is a true winner-take-all contest. Illinois follows on Tuesday (3/20) with Louisiana rounding it out for March next Saturday (3/24).
*UPDATE*
Hawaii has fully come in with 9 delegates for Mr. Romney, 5 delegates for Mr. Santorum, and 3 delegates for Uncle Ron. Alabama still has 9 delegates outstanding which I'm assuming are coming from three congressional districts where the vote is tight.
Overall totals are 470 (422 confirmed) for Mr. Romney, 226 (176) for Mr. Santorum, 150 (133) for Newt, and 72 (34) for Uncle Ron.
Still, I can't imagine that Mr. Romney feels too bad as he won both Hawaii and American Samoa as expected. The final numbers are still being digested in both Alabama and Hawaii, but it appears that with these two wins and a strong showing (even at third place) in the South, Mr. Romney will take the most delegates from the day. Mr. Romney is currently holding 39 delegates for the night, while Mr. Santorum has 32 and Newt has 24. Uncle Ron did manage to snag 1 Hawaii delegate with 14 delegates still to be allocated (most of those from Alabama).
With his failure to actually win the states, the talk is starting to get louder that Newt is to withdraw from the field. I still think that is unlikely at the moment. Newt came very close to winning Mississippi and I don't believe that his ego will allow him to drop out until he has at least contested Missouri (this Saturday) and Louisiana (next Saturday). Still, expect the calls for Newt to withdraw and endorse Mr. Santorum to only get louder as the contest continues.
As noted above, the Missouri caucus is this Saturday. This time it won't be a cakewalk for Mr. Santorum as it was during the primary. Mr. Romney will actually be trying this time and Newt will be an option (unless he withdraws before Saturday). Puerto Rico in on Sunday and that is a true winner-take-all contest. Illinois follows on Tuesday (3/20) with Louisiana rounding it out for March next Saturday (3/24).
*UPDATE*
Hawaii has fully come in with 9 delegates for Mr. Romney, 5 delegates for Mr. Santorum, and 3 delegates for Uncle Ron. Alabama still has 9 delegates outstanding which I'm assuming are coming from three congressional districts where the vote is tight.
Overall totals are 470 (422 confirmed) for Mr. Romney, 226 (176) for Mr. Santorum, 150 (133) for Newt, and 72 (34) for Uncle Ron.
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
It's Good To Be In Dixie...
Mississippi and Alabama are counting votes right now. No projections are going to be made for a while as all three top candidates are shooting around 30%. CNN's exit polls are showing Mr. Romney with a slight lead in Mississippi while Mr. Santorum has a slight lead in Alabama. Newt finishing third in both states would be quite crippling to him. Whether he drops out or not remains to be seen.
Meanwhile there is also Hawaii and American Samoa. Mr. Romney is expected to win both easily.
*UPDATE*
Alabama has been called for Mr. Santorum. Mississippi has 90% of the vote in and Mr. Santorum is up by a little over 3,000 votes over Newt. A second place finish in both states should buoy Newt at least through Louisiana.
I'll see if I can get a delegate breakdown tomorrow.
Meanwhile there is also Hawaii and American Samoa. Mr. Romney is expected to win both easily.
*UPDATE*
Alabama has been called for Mr. Santorum. Mississippi has 90% of the vote in and Mr. Santorum is up by a little over 3,000 votes over Newt. A second place finish in both states should buoy Newt at least through Louisiana.
I'll see if I can get a delegate breakdown tomorrow.
Monday, March 12, 2012
Romney/Santorum Split
Over the weekend, Mr. Santorum won the Kansas Caucus decisively. Unfortunately for him, Kansas does not have the 50% winner take all threshold that many other states do. As such, he took 33 of the state's 40 delegates while Mr. Romney took the remaining 7.
Meanwhile, Mr. Romney took 7 of the 12 available county delegates in Wyoming, all 9 of the delegates from Guam, all 9 of the delegates from the Northern Marinaras, and 7 of the 9 available delegates from the US Virgin Islands.
In the end, Mr. Romney emerged from the weekend with 39 additional delegates. Mr. Santorum finished with 36 additional delegates, while Uncle Ron scratched together 2 additional delegates. This gives Mr. Romney a tentative total of 430 (382 confirmed) delegates while Mr. Santorum lags behind at 192 (142 confirmed). Newt is also still in play with 126 delegates (109 confirmed).
Tomorrow all eyes will be on the South. Hawaii and American Samoa hold caucuses but their delegate allocations are fairly small (20 and 9 respectively) and will be likely taken easily by Mr. Romney. Mississippi and Alabama will have 90 total delegates in play and the additional storyline of Newt's last stand. Newt is already crippled both in total delegate count and by the fact that finished third in Tennessee. If he fails to win either of the two southern contests, it puts the kibosh on his Southern strategy and effectively destroying any path he has to the nomination.
If Newt had run strong in the South, he could have walked in to the convention with a unified South and then tried to convince the Midwest and the Plains to break away and support him. But without a unified South, Newt will be left flapping in the wind. Now, if he loses, does that means that Newt will actually drop out is another story.
Meanwhile, Mr. Romney took 7 of the 12 available county delegates in Wyoming, all 9 of the delegates from Guam, all 9 of the delegates from the Northern Marinaras, and 7 of the 9 available delegates from the US Virgin Islands.
In the end, Mr. Romney emerged from the weekend with 39 additional delegates. Mr. Santorum finished with 36 additional delegates, while Uncle Ron scratched together 2 additional delegates. This gives Mr. Romney a tentative total of 430 (382 confirmed) delegates while Mr. Santorum lags behind at 192 (142 confirmed). Newt is also still in play with 126 delegates (109 confirmed).
Tomorrow all eyes will be on the South. Hawaii and American Samoa hold caucuses but their delegate allocations are fairly small (20 and 9 respectively) and will be likely taken easily by Mr. Romney. Mississippi and Alabama will have 90 total delegates in play and the additional storyline of Newt's last stand. Newt is already crippled both in total delegate count and by the fact that finished third in Tennessee. If he fails to win either of the two southern contests, it puts the kibosh on his Southern strategy and effectively destroying any path he has to the nomination.
If Newt had run strong in the South, he could have walked in to the convention with a unified South and then tried to convince the Midwest and the Plains to break away and support him. But without a unified South, Newt will be left flapping in the wind. Now, if he loses, does that means that Newt will actually drop out is another story.
Friday, March 09, 2012
O' Death
I'm not much for throat singing, but this is the first version of this song (which I'm quite fond of) that sings in response style. I can understand not singing fully in response when it is sung solo such as Ralph Stanley's version, but the song really is at its best when two voices play off of each other.
Wednesday, March 07, 2012
New Narratives
In the immediate aftermath of Super Tuesday, two narratives seem to be emerging.
The first is that although it is increasingly likely that Mitt Romney will be the GOP nominee, people (including his own supporters) are not very happy and grow increasingly fretful about how long this primary season is going to last. The main driver behind this seems to be how Mr. Romney is unable to win just about any of the areas that are seen as strong Republican areas (the South and rural areas).
Ohio presents a good example of this. If you compare the county breakdown of last night's primary, it looks very similar to a Republican vs. Democrat breakdown of the state. Romney won Cleveland, Youngstown, Columbus, Dayton, and Cincinnati, which are the areas that normally turn blue. He also won many of the suburban areas around these cities (which better than most Democrats do). Conversely, Mr. Santorum won all the rural areas and the poor working class areas (including Toledo for some reason). In the general election, no matter who the Republican nominee is, almost all the areas won by Mr. Santorum will be won by the Republican. A number of the areas won by Mr. Romney are going to be won by Mr. Obama, although heavy Republican turnout in these areas is going to be important. But the fact that this pattern is repeated in nearly all the states so far, is not giving people in the Republican party the warm fuzzies.
The second narrative that seems to be emerging is that Mr. Santorum's surrogates are close to screaming that it's time for Newt to get out. There is a fair argument for this. If Newt had not been in the race and 2/3 of his support had gone to Mr. Santorum and 1/3 to Mr. Romney (for ease of math), Mr. Santorum would have beaten Mr. Romney in Ohio by 45,000 votes and won Alaska by about 150 votes. He might have even won Georgia to say nothing of padding his vote totals in Tennessee and Oklahoma. Imagine what that would have done to the delegate totals.
Regardless, if Newt wants to stay in and someone is willing to bankroll him, he is free to do so.
Newt's last real argument for viability is coming up in a week. Alabama and Mississippi go to the polls on Tuesday (March 13) along with caucuses in Hawaii and American Samoa. If Newt wins those two, it gives him more reason to stay in and say that he is the candidate of the South. If however, he loses those to Mr. Santorum or he syphons enough votes away that Mr. Romney wins and he finishes third, it will be very difficult to justify staying in without admitting that he is dividing the "Not-Romney" vote. He may not care about that and that's his prerogative. We'll just have to wait and see there.
Meanwhile the next contests will be fairly quiet ones. Kansas holds a binding caucus (40 delegates) and Wyoming will officially settle on the allocation of their first 12 delegates at the county conventions. There will also be caucuses in the territories of Guam, Northern Marianas, and Virgin Islands. Each of the territories gets 9 delegates.
The first is that although it is increasingly likely that Mitt Romney will be the GOP nominee, people (including his own supporters) are not very happy and grow increasingly fretful about how long this primary season is going to last. The main driver behind this seems to be how Mr. Romney is unable to win just about any of the areas that are seen as strong Republican areas (the South and rural areas).
Ohio presents a good example of this. If you compare the county breakdown of last night's primary, it looks very similar to a Republican vs. Democrat breakdown of the state. Romney won Cleveland, Youngstown, Columbus, Dayton, and Cincinnati, which are the areas that normally turn blue. He also won many of the suburban areas around these cities (which better than most Democrats do). Conversely, Mr. Santorum won all the rural areas and the poor working class areas (including Toledo for some reason). In the general election, no matter who the Republican nominee is, almost all the areas won by Mr. Santorum will be won by the Republican. A number of the areas won by Mr. Romney are going to be won by Mr. Obama, although heavy Republican turnout in these areas is going to be important. But the fact that this pattern is repeated in nearly all the states so far, is not giving people in the Republican party the warm fuzzies.
The second narrative that seems to be emerging is that Mr. Santorum's surrogates are close to screaming that it's time for Newt to get out. There is a fair argument for this. If Newt had not been in the race and 2/3 of his support had gone to Mr. Santorum and 1/3 to Mr. Romney (for ease of math), Mr. Santorum would have beaten Mr. Romney in Ohio by 45,000 votes and won Alaska by about 150 votes. He might have even won Georgia to say nothing of padding his vote totals in Tennessee and Oklahoma. Imagine what that would have done to the delegate totals.
Regardless, if Newt wants to stay in and someone is willing to bankroll him, he is free to do so.
Newt's last real argument for viability is coming up in a week. Alabama and Mississippi go to the polls on Tuesday (March 13) along with caucuses in Hawaii and American Samoa. If Newt wins those two, it gives him more reason to stay in and say that he is the candidate of the South. If however, he loses those to Mr. Santorum or he syphons enough votes away that Mr. Romney wins and he finishes third, it will be very difficult to justify staying in without admitting that he is dividing the "Not-Romney" vote. He may not care about that and that's his prerogative. We'll just have to wait and see there.
Meanwhile the next contests will be fairly quiet ones. Kansas holds a binding caucus (40 delegates) and Wyoming will officially settle on the allocation of their first 12 delegates at the county conventions. There will also be caucuses in the territories of Guam, Northern Marianas, and Virgin Islands. Each of the territories gets 9 delegates.
Super Tuesday Post Mortem
In the end it was a good night for Mr. Romney. Not a great night, but a good night. The seven contests I predicted all went as expected, although things ended up being closer than I expected in both Virginia and Vermont. He made up for that by winning all three of the toss up contests.
Ohio sat in the Santorum column most of the night, but Hamilton and Cuyahoga counties kept sitting out there. When they finally came in near the end of the night, it completely erased Mr. Santorum's 15,000 vote lead and catapulted Mr. Romney to a 12,000 vote win.
Idaho turned out to be a laugher. Mr. Santorum and Uncle Ron hung in and did manage to win 13 counties, but the Idaho rules stipulate that if any candidate gets over 50% of the delegates, he wins them all. So Mr. Romney swept Idaho and all 32 delegates.
Alaska was closer and there are no special rules there. The delegates will be allotted proportionately, giving Mr. Romney 8, Mr. Santorum 7, Uncle Ron 6, and Newt 3.
The results are still being digested in some states so the full delegate total updates won't be ready for a little while yet. At the moment, it appears that Mr. Romney has picked up 196 delegates, Mr. Santorum has picked up 80 delegates, Newt has picked up 72 delegates, and Uncle Ron has picked up 21 delegates. These allotments will change a little bit as the breakdowns per Congressional District clarified.
On a side note, Marcy Kaptur defeated Dennis Kucinich in OH-9. Also my old congresswoman, Jean Schmidt, lost her primary race to Brad Wenstrup in OH-2. He'll likely face off against David Smith, also a newcomer to the race.
Ohio sat in the Santorum column most of the night, but Hamilton and Cuyahoga counties kept sitting out there. When they finally came in near the end of the night, it completely erased Mr. Santorum's 15,000 vote lead and catapulted Mr. Romney to a 12,000 vote win.
Idaho turned out to be a laugher. Mr. Santorum and Uncle Ron hung in and did manage to win 13 counties, but the Idaho rules stipulate that if any candidate gets over 50% of the delegates, he wins them all. So Mr. Romney swept Idaho and all 32 delegates.
Alaska was closer and there are no special rules there. The delegates will be allotted proportionately, giving Mr. Romney 8, Mr. Santorum 7, Uncle Ron 6, and Newt 3.
The results are still being digested in some states so the full delegate total updates won't be ready for a little while yet. At the moment, it appears that Mr. Romney has picked up 196 delegates, Mr. Santorum has picked up 80 delegates, Newt has picked up 72 delegates, and Uncle Ron has picked up 21 delegates. These allotments will change a little bit as the breakdowns per Congressional District clarified.
On a side note, Marcy Kaptur defeated Dennis Kucinich in OH-9. Also my old congresswoman, Jean Schmidt, lost her primary race to Brad Wenstrup in OH-2. He'll likely face off against David Smith, also a newcomer to the race.
Tuesday, March 06, 2012
Super Tuesday
10:40 PM - I'm off to bed. Santorum's lead is down to 7,000 votes with 79% reporting. God only knows how long it'll be before Idaho and Alaska are reported. Alaska polls close at midnight.
10:30 PM - Hamilton county is reporting what should be a nearly 6,000 vote gain for Romney once everything is added. Cuyahoga may do the same. If that holds, it'll come down to little bits still reporting in other counties. It may be well after midnight before Ohio is called.
10:20 PM - Romney dominating Idaho in the early counting. 30% Mormon turnout indeed. Santorum's lead is about 15,000 in Ohio with 70% of the vote in. It's starting to get tight for Romney to make that up.
10:06 PM - North Dakota called for Santorum.
9:50 PM - With about 50% of the caucuses counted, Santorum is up by about 700 votes over Uncle Ron in North Dakota. He's up by 15,000 in Ohio with 46% of the vote but Hamilton, Cuyahoga, and Franklin counties have not reported much yet.
9:30 PM - I'm very surprised to see that with 80% of the vote counted, Romney is beating Santorum in Warren County by nearly 2,000 votes. Meanwhile the Odas are both winning their races here. I'm mildly disappointed by that.
8:45 PM - I just got back from the store. Vermont and Massachusetts have been called for Mr. Romney. Oklahoma and Tennessee have been called for Mr. Santorum.
7:30 PM - How many times can Wolf Blitzer say Ohio in one minute? Too close to call, no surprise.
7:15 PM - Georgia called for Newt. Mr. Romney takes Virginia, although it took a few minutes. Uncle Ron is running stronger than expected there. Vermont is strangely close as both Uncle Ron and Mr. Santorum are fighting it out. Vermont might just be weird enough to put Uncle Ron over the top here.
4:15 PM - Voted. I was #111. Not bad turnout for my precinct.
11:30 AM - In addition to the Presidential Primary, there are a few Congressional Primaries to watch. Probably the most interesting here in Ohio is for OH-9, pitting incumbent Marcy Kaptur (Toledo) against Dennis Kucinich (Cleveland). Although nominal allies, this race has been down and dirty.
One particular ad hit Mr. Kucinich hard. When he first thought he would lose his district, Mr. Kucinich took a few trips to Washington State and even looked into moving there and running for one of Washington's new districts (they gained one district). Ms. Kaptur took this bit and paired Mr. Kucinich up with Art Modell and LeBron James as Ohioans who cut and run to make their fortunes elsewhere. Nasty, but effective.
Geography would seem to favor Ms. Kaptur laying everything else aside. The district contains most of Toledo, the entire lakefront, and only the western sections of Cleveland. Most of Mr. Kucinich's old district was folded into Marcia Fudge's 11th district, leaving him without much of his old support. I'll be curious to see how this one turns out.
6:50 AM - Today's the day that Mr. Romney either relegates his rivals to the second tier or has them come back up and bite his heels. Polls closings are as follows:
Georgia - 7:00 EST
Vermont - 7:00 EST
Virginia - 7:00 EST
Ohio - 7:30 EST
Oklahoma - 7:00 CST (8:00 EST)
Massachusetts - 8:00 EST
Tennessee - 8:00 EST
North Dakota - 9:00 CST (10:00 EST)
Alaska - caucuses begin at 7:30 AKST (11:30 EST)
Idaho - no closing time given for caucuses
10:30 PM - Hamilton county is reporting what should be a nearly 6,000 vote gain for Romney once everything is added. Cuyahoga may do the same. If that holds, it'll come down to little bits still reporting in other counties. It may be well after midnight before Ohio is called.
10:20 PM - Romney dominating Idaho in the early counting. 30% Mormon turnout indeed. Santorum's lead is about 15,000 in Ohio with 70% of the vote in. It's starting to get tight for Romney to make that up.
10:06 PM - North Dakota called for Santorum.
9:50 PM - With about 50% of the caucuses counted, Santorum is up by about 700 votes over Uncle Ron in North Dakota. He's up by 15,000 in Ohio with 46% of the vote but Hamilton, Cuyahoga, and Franklin counties have not reported much yet.
9:30 PM - I'm very surprised to see that with 80% of the vote counted, Romney is beating Santorum in Warren County by nearly 2,000 votes. Meanwhile the Odas are both winning their races here. I'm mildly disappointed by that.
8:45 PM - I just got back from the store. Vermont and Massachusetts have been called for Mr. Romney. Oklahoma and Tennessee have been called for Mr. Santorum.
7:30 PM - How many times can Wolf Blitzer say Ohio in one minute? Too close to call, no surprise.
7:15 PM - Georgia called for Newt. Mr. Romney takes Virginia, although it took a few minutes. Uncle Ron is running stronger than expected there. Vermont is strangely close as both Uncle Ron and Mr. Santorum are fighting it out. Vermont might just be weird enough to put Uncle Ron over the top here.
4:15 PM - Voted. I was #111. Not bad turnout for my precinct.
11:30 AM - In addition to the Presidential Primary, there are a few Congressional Primaries to watch. Probably the most interesting here in Ohio is for OH-9, pitting incumbent Marcy Kaptur (Toledo) against Dennis Kucinich (Cleveland). Although nominal allies, this race has been down and dirty.
One particular ad hit Mr. Kucinich hard. When he first thought he would lose his district, Mr. Kucinich took a few trips to Washington State and even looked into moving there and running for one of Washington's new districts (they gained one district). Ms. Kaptur took this bit and paired Mr. Kucinich up with Art Modell and LeBron James as Ohioans who cut and run to make their fortunes elsewhere. Nasty, but effective.
Geography would seem to favor Ms. Kaptur laying everything else aside. The district contains most of Toledo, the entire lakefront, and only the western sections of Cleveland. Most of Mr. Kucinich's old district was folded into Marcia Fudge's 11th district, leaving him without much of his old support. I'll be curious to see how this one turns out.
6:50 AM - Today's the day that Mr. Romney either relegates his rivals to the second tier or has them come back up and bite his heels. Polls closings are as follows:
Georgia - 7:00 EST
Vermont - 7:00 EST
Virginia - 7:00 EST
Ohio - 7:30 EST
Oklahoma - 7:00 CST (8:00 EST)
Massachusetts - 8:00 EST
Tennessee - 8:00 EST
North Dakota - 9:00 CST (10:00 EST)
Alaska - caucuses begin at 7:30 AKST (11:30 EST)
Idaho - no closing time given for caucuses
Monday, March 05, 2012
Romney Wins Washington (State)
Fueled by the wins in Arizona and Michigan, Mitt Romney won the Washington Caucuses on Saturday. He topped Uncle Ron by thirteen points (38-25), while Rick Santorum (who had been leading the Washington polls for a while) fell to third with 24%. These caucuses are non-binding so it doesn't mean much in terms of actual delegates (who won't be allotted until June). But it does help with perception. Mr. Romney has now not lost a contest since Mr. Santorum's three state back in the middle of February.
So now we wait for Super Tuesday. Polls continue to narrow in Ohio, now showing Mr. Santorum leading Mr. Romney by only two points. Mr. Romney is ahead in those people that have already voted, but only by 4 points and early voting has been very light this year. Still, it's always nice to start with a lead and if momentum can carry you, starting ahead by an extra step won't hurt either.
So now we wait for Super Tuesday. Polls continue to narrow in Ohio, now showing Mr. Santorum leading Mr. Romney by only two points. Mr. Romney is ahead in those people that have already voted, but only by 4 points and early voting has been very light this year. Still, it's always nice to start with a lead and if momentum can carry you, starting ahead by an extra step won't hurt either.
Friday, March 02, 2012
Super Tuesday Handicapping
This year, Super Tuesday has ten states all going to the polls or holding caucuses. One would like to think that the playing field is level, but in reality, the outcome of certain states is probably pretty obvious. We'll go through each state and have a look at what we should expect.
Alaska (27) - I can honestly say that I have no idea what will happen here. The re-election of Senator Murkowski two years ago suggests that there might be a strong Romney presence. But you also have the strong independent streak that might favor Santorum or Newt. I'm going to punt on this one.
Idaho (32) - This will similar to other Mountain West contests in that it will pit Romney and Santorum head-to-head with Uncle Ron playing spoiler. I think the Mormon vote (which could be as large as 30% of the electorate) along the Utah border and the slightly more liberal areas around Boise will go for Mr. Romney while the interior areas favor Mr. Santorum. As with the rest of the Rocky states, Uncle Ron will syphon off a number of votes (probably from both candidates). I think Mr. Romney has a slight edge but the delegate split is likely to be close to 50-50 given the way that Idaho elects their delegates.
North Dakota (28) - We've not had a true plain states contest yet so the closest you can compare it to would be western Minnesota and western Iowa. In both those contests, Mr. Santorum did very well. I would expect him to take North Dakota.
Oklahoma (43) - Limited polling (taken before the debate on the 22nd) showed Mr. Santorum with a large lead. I doubt the results in Michigan will affect that lead much. Mr. Santorum's social issue platform plays well in this very conservative state so I would expect a strong Santorum win here.
Georgia (76) - Newt's home state and he should win easily here. Despite a natural homefield, Newt has spent a reasonable amount of time campaigning here. That is reflected in his 15-point lead in the polls. However, the fact that Newt has spent so much time here (where he shouldn't have to) suggests that he is not going to be much of a factor elsewhere.
Tennessee (58) - This is a prime example of the problem that Georgia showed. What limited polling has been done shows that Mr. Santorum holds nearly a 2-1 advantage over Mr. Romney. Newt is sitting back in 3rd place, having just managed to crawl out of 4th place. The campaign could change things, but I still expect Mr. Santorum to win Tennessee easily.
Virginia (49) - Only Mr. Romney and Uncle Ron are on the ballot. Mr. Romney may win every county in Virginia and should win close to all the delegates overall.
Massachusetts (41) - Despite all the hot air over Michigan, this is actually Mr. Romney's home state. He should win handily here. The only real problem he has is how the delegates are divided. As long as one of his opponents clears 20%, he'll lose out on about 1/3 of the delegates despite crushing his opposition.
Vermont (17) - Again Mr. Romney should win Vermont easily. If he can clear 50% of the total vote, he'll take all the delegates there.
Ohio (66) - I've saved Ohio for last for several reasons. First, I live in Ohio and like to talk most about it. Second, although being second in total number of available delegates (to Georgia) it is viewed as the most open of all the campaigns and could see some wild swings. Virginia might have held this role if Mr. Santorum had gotten on the ballot there, but he didn't.
The natural demographics of Ohio favor Mr. Santorum, especially if Newt continues to be seen as an also ran. Unlike Michigan, there aren't a whole lot of districts packed into a single city so there won't be a way to snag a whole lot of delegates in a tight area. Mr. Romney will probably win the more urban areas of Columbus, Cleveland, and Toledo, but that won't buy him much in terms of delegate haul. More to his advantage is the fact that Mr. Santorum didn't file a slate of delegates in three congressional districts (6, 9, and 13). CD 9 is the lake front from Toledo to Cleveland and 13 is the area between Youngstown and Akron. I would expect Mr. Romney to do better in these areas anyway but why give your opponent a free ride? The loss of delegates in CD 6 is an even bigger unforced error. This is the rural, mountainous area bordering West Virginia and Kentucky. Most voters here are poor, working class folks and tend to be more conservative Democrats. These are the people that Mr. Romney is having a very hard time capturing and would have been an easy win for Mr. Santorum. He may end up winning this area (allowing him to contribute to the statewide vote) on the overall vote, but the voters would have to go to their second choice candidate for the actual CD delegates.
Recaping, I would say that Mr. Romney has three guaranteed wins (VT, MA, VA) with a potential for at least three more (ID, AK, OH). Mr. Santorum is looking at three strong possible wins (ND, OK, TN) with the same three states being more questionable. Newt's only real play is Georgia and a prayer that he breaks into second place in some of the other states.
Alaska (27) - I can honestly say that I have no idea what will happen here. The re-election of Senator Murkowski two years ago suggests that there might be a strong Romney presence. But you also have the strong independent streak that might favor Santorum or Newt. I'm going to punt on this one.
Idaho (32) - This will similar to other Mountain West contests in that it will pit Romney and Santorum head-to-head with Uncle Ron playing spoiler. I think the Mormon vote (which could be as large as 30% of the electorate) along the Utah border and the slightly more liberal areas around Boise will go for Mr. Romney while the interior areas favor Mr. Santorum. As with the rest of the Rocky states, Uncle Ron will syphon off a number of votes (probably from both candidates). I think Mr. Romney has a slight edge but the delegate split is likely to be close to 50-50 given the way that Idaho elects their delegates.
North Dakota (28) - We've not had a true plain states contest yet so the closest you can compare it to would be western Minnesota and western Iowa. In both those contests, Mr. Santorum did very well. I would expect him to take North Dakota.
Oklahoma (43) - Limited polling (taken before the debate on the 22nd) showed Mr. Santorum with a large lead. I doubt the results in Michigan will affect that lead much. Mr. Santorum's social issue platform plays well in this very conservative state so I would expect a strong Santorum win here.
Georgia (76) - Newt's home state and he should win easily here. Despite a natural homefield, Newt has spent a reasonable amount of time campaigning here. That is reflected in his 15-point lead in the polls. However, the fact that Newt has spent so much time here (where he shouldn't have to) suggests that he is not going to be much of a factor elsewhere.
Tennessee (58) - This is a prime example of the problem that Georgia showed. What limited polling has been done shows that Mr. Santorum holds nearly a 2-1 advantage over Mr. Romney. Newt is sitting back in 3rd place, having just managed to crawl out of 4th place. The campaign could change things, but I still expect Mr. Santorum to win Tennessee easily.
Virginia (49) - Only Mr. Romney and Uncle Ron are on the ballot. Mr. Romney may win every county in Virginia and should win close to all the delegates overall.
Massachusetts (41) - Despite all the hot air over Michigan, this is actually Mr. Romney's home state. He should win handily here. The only real problem he has is how the delegates are divided. As long as one of his opponents clears 20%, he'll lose out on about 1/3 of the delegates despite crushing his opposition.
Vermont (17) - Again Mr. Romney should win Vermont easily. If he can clear 50% of the total vote, he'll take all the delegates there.
Ohio (66) - I've saved Ohio for last for several reasons. First, I live in Ohio and like to talk most about it. Second, although being second in total number of available delegates (to Georgia) it is viewed as the most open of all the campaigns and could see some wild swings. Virginia might have held this role if Mr. Santorum had gotten on the ballot there, but he didn't.
The natural demographics of Ohio favor Mr. Santorum, especially if Newt continues to be seen as an also ran. Unlike Michigan, there aren't a whole lot of districts packed into a single city so there won't be a way to snag a whole lot of delegates in a tight area. Mr. Romney will probably win the more urban areas of Columbus, Cleveland, and Toledo, but that won't buy him much in terms of delegate haul. More to his advantage is the fact that Mr. Santorum didn't file a slate of delegates in three congressional districts (6, 9, and 13). CD 9 is the lake front from Toledo to Cleveland and 13 is the area between Youngstown and Akron. I would expect Mr. Romney to do better in these areas anyway but why give your opponent a free ride? The loss of delegates in CD 6 is an even bigger unforced error. This is the rural, mountainous area bordering West Virginia and Kentucky. Most voters here are poor, working class folks and tend to be more conservative Democrats. These are the people that Mr. Romney is having a very hard time capturing and would have been an easy win for Mr. Santorum. He may end up winning this area (allowing him to contribute to the statewide vote) on the overall vote, but the voters would have to go to their second choice candidate for the actual CD delegates.
Recaping, I would say that Mr. Romney has three guaranteed wins (VT, MA, VA) with a potential for at least three more (ID, AK, OH). Mr. Santorum is looking at three strong possible wins (ND, OK, TN) with the same three states being more questionable. Newt's only real play is Georgia and a prayer that he breaks into second place in some of the other states.
Wednesday, February 29, 2012
Partial Wyoming Results
Wyoming is funky even by caucus standards. Wyoming splits its delegate allocation (29) into three piles. Three delegates are the party leader delegates who go unassigned. The next 14 are decided at the state convention (April 14) and, to my knowledge, are not tied to any voting across the state. The last 12 are decided by county caucuses that run from February 9 to 29. However, the process for allocating these county delegates is curious.
There are 23 counties in Wyoming. Twenty-two of these counties are paired up, while Laramie County (where Cheyenne is located) stands alone (electing both a delegate and an alternate). The pairing doesn't change but the order of the pairing does as it alternates every presidential election. The reason this is important is that in each county pairing, one county elects a delegate while the other county elects an alternate. Thus, you could have two different candidates represented in the delegate/alternate pairing depending on who wins each county.
Delegates will be chosen on March 10 at the county conventions but one would expect the delegate selection to mirror that of straw poll (unless the vote was very close and someone switched). As such, we should expect the delegate selection to reflect the county poll winners as follows:
1. Laramie - Santorum
2. Natrona - Santorum
3. Carbon - Santorum
4. Lincoln - Romney
5. Sublette - Romney
6. Park - Romney
7. Washakie - Romney
8. Big Horn - Romney
9. Johnson - Paul
10. Weston - Paul
11. Niobrara - Paul
12. Platte - Santorum
This gives Mr. Romney 5 delegates, Mr. Santorum 4 delegates, and Uncle Ron 3 delegates. These however are soft allocations as all 29 Wyoming delegates are to be officially "unbound." How unbound they actually are is open for debate.
If the alternate counties are considered, Mr. Santorum would jump to 7 delegates while Mr. Romney falls to 3 and Uncle Ron would get only 1. Sweetwater County will decide today but their vote will not be enough to overcome Mr. Romney's win in the straw poll. Whether any of this will matter at the state convention in April is anyone's guess.
There are 23 counties in Wyoming. Twenty-two of these counties are paired up, while Laramie County (where Cheyenne is located) stands alone (electing both a delegate and an alternate). The pairing doesn't change but the order of the pairing does as it alternates every presidential election. The reason this is important is that in each county pairing, one county elects a delegate while the other county elects an alternate. Thus, you could have two different candidates represented in the delegate/alternate pairing depending on who wins each county.
Delegates will be chosen on March 10 at the county conventions but one would expect the delegate selection to mirror that of straw poll (unless the vote was very close and someone switched). As such, we should expect the delegate selection to reflect the county poll winners as follows:
1. Laramie - Santorum
2. Natrona - Santorum
3. Carbon - Santorum
4. Lincoln - Romney
5. Sublette - Romney
6. Park - Romney
7. Washakie - Romney
8. Big Horn - Romney
9. Johnson - Paul
10. Weston - Paul
11. Niobrara - Paul
12. Platte - Santorum
This gives Mr. Romney 5 delegates, Mr. Santorum 4 delegates, and Uncle Ron 3 delegates. These however are soft allocations as all 29 Wyoming delegates are to be officially "unbound." How unbound they actually are is open for debate.
If the alternate counties are considered, Mr. Santorum would jump to 7 delegates while Mr. Romney falls to 3 and Uncle Ron would get only 1. Sweetwater County will decide today but their vote will not be enough to overcome Mr. Romney's win in the straw poll. Whether any of this will matter at the state convention in April is anyone's guess.
Romney Strikes Back
To no one's surprise, Mitt Romney easily won Arizona (47-27). Far more interesting is that he also won Michigan. Mr. Romney bested Mr. Santorum in Michigan by a little over 30,000 votes or around 3% (41-38). As I predicted yesterday, a low turnout benefited Mr. Romney. Whether Democrat chicanery added anything is impossible to tell at this point.
The delegate split is 50-50 as Mr. Romney has taken seven congressional districts for 14 delegates and Mr. Santorum has taken seven congressional districts for 14 delegates. Mr. Romney's domination of the Detroit area bagged him the majority of delegates, despite Mr. Santorum taking a larger percentage of the geography of Michigan. The last two delegates are split even between the two men as they both topped the 15% vote threshold.
Looking at things as a whole, Mr. Romney has a hard total of 117 delegates with another 32 as soft additions from the caucuses. Mr. Santorum has 18 hard delegates but an additional soft 40 from the caucuses. Either way, Mr. Romney is the solid front runner at the moment and he should stem the narrative that he's in trouble for the moment. That might change depending on what happens on Super Tuesday but that's a good week away.
BTW, Wyoming wraps up their county caucuses today and it looks as though Mr. Romney is going to win that straw poll. However, the delegate allocation is quite different in that state so I'll cover Wyoming in a separate post.
The delegate split is 50-50 as Mr. Romney has taken seven congressional districts for 14 delegates and Mr. Santorum has taken seven congressional districts for 14 delegates. Mr. Romney's domination of the Detroit area bagged him the majority of delegates, despite Mr. Santorum taking a larger percentage of the geography of Michigan. The last two delegates are split even between the two men as they both topped the 15% vote threshold.
Looking at things as a whole, Mr. Romney has a hard total of 117 delegates with another 32 as soft additions from the caucuses. Mr. Santorum has 18 hard delegates but an additional soft 40 from the caucuses. Either way, Mr. Romney is the solid front runner at the moment and he should stem the narrative that he's in trouble for the moment. That might change depending on what happens on Super Tuesday but that's a good week away.
BTW, Wyoming wraps up their county caucuses today and it looks as though Mr. Romney is going to win that straw poll. However, the delegate allocation is quite different in that state so I'll cover Wyoming in a separate post.
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
Arizona and Michigan Today
After a long hiatus, we are actually going back to voting today. Arizona and Michigan vote today.
Arizona is a complete non-story. Mr. Romney has been polling about 15 points ahead and has the backing of the senior Senator (John McCain) and the governor (Jan Brewer). Polls close at 7 pm MST (9pm EST) and I would expect the networks to all call it immediately for Mr. Romney. What's more, since it is winner-take-all, there's very little interest in seeing how the remaining candidates did or where they won their votes outside of national data miners.
Michigan, on the other hand, will be far more interesting. Polling has shown Mr. Romney and Mr. Santorum running neck and neck for the past week or so. Mr. Romney has been shown to have a slight lead but that is within the margin of error. He also has a lead in those that have voted early. However, Mr. Santorum has been shown to be the choice of those planning on voting today. He also is polling higher among those Democrats who plan to vote in the Republican contest today. One can read whatever motive you want into that bit of information.
Polls close at 8pm EST for most of the state. However, the UP has polls open until 8 pm CST (9:00 pm EST) and that will prevent the networks from calling anything until then. Michigan will allocate two delegates to the winner of each Congressional District and then Mr. Romney and Mr. Santorum will split the remaining two delegates as they will be the two top vote-getters. I would suspect that Mr. Santorum will do better in the more rural areas while Mr. Romney wins in the thumb and around Detroit. That will probably lead to a balancing of the delegate allocation (since there are more CDs around Detroit to make up the delegate count). In the end, I wouldn't be surprised to see a near tie in delegate allocation (15-15). As far as the overall win, if turnout is low, Mr. Romney should win. If turnout is high, I think Mr. Santorum wins.
Since Mr. Romney will take all 29 of the Arizona delegates, he will have a pretty good night for himself with a takeaway of between 40 and 45 delegates while Mr. Santorum only takes between 15 and 20 delegates. But its the grab for the headlines that is important. If Mr. Santorum manages to win Michigan (even if it is by one vote), he grabs the story about taking it to Mr. Romney in his birth state. If he follows that up with a win in the Washington caucuses on Saturday (where polls currently have him ahead), Mr. Santorum will be well poised to build a strong narrative going into Super Tuesday.
From a delegate standpoint, Mr. Romney will stay safely ahead even through Super Tuesday, no matter what the results. I think it is unlikely that Mr. Santorum will even come close to overtaking Mr. Romney in the delegate count until the middle to end of May. If the two men stay close, it will make the delegate feasts of Texas (155) and California (172) the potential deciding factors. It will be interesting to see how things play out going forward.
Arizona is a complete non-story. Mr. Romney has been polling about 15 points ahead and has the backing of the senior Senator (John McCain) and the governor (Jan Brewer). Polls close at 7 pm MST (9pm EST) and I would expect the networks to all call it immediately for Mr. Romney. What's more, since it is winner-take-all, there's very little interest in seeing how the remaining candidates did or where they won their votes outside of national data miners.
Michigan, on the other hand, will be far more interesting. Polling has shown Mr. Romney and Mr. Santorum running neck and neck for the past week or so. Mr. Romney has been shown to have a slight lead but that is within the margin of error. He also has a lead in those that have voted early. However, Mr. Santorum has been shown to be the choice of those planning on voting today. He also is polling higher among those Democrats who plan to vote in the Republican contest today. One can read whatever motive you want into that bit of information.
Polls close at 8pm EST for most of the state. However, the UP has polls open until 8 pm CST (9:00 pm EST) and that will prevent the networks from calling anything until then. Michigan will allocate two delegates to the winner of each Congressional District and then Mr. Romney and Mr. Santorum will split the remaining two delegates as they will be the two top vote-getters. I would suspect that Mr. Santorum will do better in the more rural areas while Mr. Romney wins in the thumb and around Detroit. That will probably lead to a balancing of the delegate allocation (since there are more CDs around Detroit to make up the delegate count). In the end, I wouldn't be surprised to see a near tie in delegate allocation (15-15). As far as the overall win, if turnout is low, Mr. Romney should win. If turnout is high, I think Mr. Santorum wins.
Since Mr. Romney will take all 29 of the Arizona delegates, he will have a pretty good night for himself with a takeaway of between 40 and 45 delegates while Mr. Santorum only takes between 15 and 20 delegates. But its the grab for the headlines that is important. If Mr. Santorum manages to win Michigan (even if it is by one vote), he grabs the story about taking it to Mr. Romney in his birth state. If he follows that up with a win in the Washington caucuses on Saturday (where polls currently have him ahead), Mr. Santorum will be well poised to build a strong narrative going into Super Tuesday.
From a delegate standpoint, Mr. Romney will stay safely ahead even through Super Tuesday, no matter what the results. I think it is unlikely that Mr. Santorum will even come close to overtaking Mr. Romney in the delegate count until the middle to end of May. If the two men stay close, it will make the delegate feasts of Texas (155) and California (172) the potential deciding factors. It will be interesting to see how things play out going forward.
Monday, February 27, 2012
Oscar Opinion
Last night were the Oscars. If I hadn't been playing a computer game while watching, I may have actually died of boredom. Fortunately, Mrs. X and I were watching on recorded delay so we were able to fast forward through any speech we didn't want to see (which was most of them). Probably the best opinion of the Oscars is reflected here:
Friday, February 24, 2012
Kill Da Wabbit!
Trivia question.
What's the only episode of Merrie Melodies staring Elmer Fudd and Bugs Bunny where Elmer successfully gets Bugs?
Answer: What's Opera Doc?
What's the only episode of Merrie Melodies staring Elmer Fudd and Bugs Bunny where Elmer successfully gets Bugs?
Answer: What's Opera Doc?
Wednesday, February 22, 2012
Glee and the Funkyverse
Last night's episode of Glee was rather up and down in terms of depression and euphoria. There always seems to be some sort of karma going on where anything good that happens has to balanced out with something bad. No more was this more pronounced than in the cliffhanger ending (I won't spoil it in case you haven't seen it).
This balancing out is good for storylines, but it also tends to produce a universe that is just barely missing out on soul crushing doom. In that, I was reminded of the universe of Funky Winkerbean (affectionately referred to by folks such as Josh as the Funkyverse). Funky Winkerbean used to be a funny comic strip, but ever since the creator got and recovered from cancer, the whole strip has taken a very dark turn. All events that produce happiness are balanced out by things that result in soul crushing depression.
I think the characters of Glee and the Funkyverse would get along quite nicely and be able to relate on how glimpses of happiness are destroyed because the universe has decided that you must be punished for your existence.
This balancing out is good for storylines, but it also tends to produce a universe that is just barely missing out on soul crushing doom. In that, I was reminded of the universe of Funky Winkerbean (affectionately referred to by folks such as Josh as the Funkyverse). Funky Winkerbean used to be a funny comic strip, but ever since the creator got and recovered from cancer, the whole strip has taken a very dark turn. All events that produce happiness are balanced out by things that result in soul crushing depression.
I think the characters of Glee and the Funkyverse would get along quite nicely and be able to relate on how glimpses of happiness are destroyed because the universe has decided that you must be punished for your existence.
Monday, February 20, 2012
Delegate Breakdowns
Michigan and Arizona will go to the polls a week from tomorrow. One week after that is Super Tuesday (with the Washington Caucuses in between the two). I figured this would be a good time to do a quick cover on the delegate standings and what's at stake over the next two weeks.
To recap, Mitt Romney currently has the lead both in actual delegates and projected delegates. Mr. Romney has 73 delegates locked in at the moment. He is generally credited with the two delegates that Mr. Huntsman won in New Hampshire since Mr. Huntsman endorsed Mr. Romney. Then the caucuses give Mr. Romney an additional 32 delegates. These are unreliable numbers but the general thought is that Mr. Romney has about 107 delegates.
Rick Santorum holds second place, although this is based on estimates. Mr. Santorum only has 3 hard delegates (from Nevada). But he is credited with 40 caucus delegates. The first of these states to turn soft numbers into hard delegates is Colorado on April 14. So Mr. Santorum's numbers are very sketchy at the moment.
Newt sits in third place with 29 hard delegates and an estimate of an additional 13 caucus delegates for a soft total of 42. Uncle Ron rounds out the field with 8 hard delegates and 28 caucus delegates for a soft total of 36 delegates.
Now, on to the contests.
Michigan and Arizona come first on the 28th. Arizona has 29 delegates and they go to whomever wins the state, period. Michigan is a little more complicated. Michigan has 30 delegates. Two delegates will go to whomever wins the overall state (assuming that candidate amassed more than 15% of the total vote) and two delegates will be awarded to the candidate who wins each congressional districts (Michigan has 14 CDs).
Washington state follows on Saturday, March 3. Washington has 43 delegates, but it is a caucus. The "winner" will be declared based on the straw poll, but the actual delegates won't be selected until June 2.
Then comes Super Tuesday with 10 states casting ballots.
Alaska has 27 delegates. Three are "leader delegates" who go to the convention as unpledged. These are the Republican equivalent to the Democrat superdelegates that caused so much fuss four years ago. The remaining 24 delegates are to be divided evenly based on the voting percentage that each candidate receives. This is a caucus but the delegates at this level are bound to a candidate so it's more like Nevada than other caucuses.
Georgia is largest delegate allocation of the day with 76 delegates. Georgia gives out three delegates per congressional district (42 total). If a candidate gets over 50% in a CD, they get all 3 delegates. If not, the candidate who gets the largest total in each CD gets 2 delegates while the runner-up gets 1. 31 delegates are apportioned out based on the overall results among the candidates who get more than 20% of the vote. Three additional delegates are given to the overall winner of the primary.
Idaho has 32 delegates. This might be my favorite method for choosing delegates. There is one caucus per county. The caucuses meet and vote by secret ballot. They vote in successive rounds, dropping the candidate who receives the least amount of votes each round, until either one candidate receives 50% of the vote or there are only two candidates left. If a candidate gets over 50% of the vote at that caucus (which should happen at almost all of them) that candidate will get the entire share of delegates allotted to that county. Else, the vote is split between the two candidates. Things are then added up and the delegates are apportioned out, rounding to the nearest whole number. If one candidate ends up with more than 16 delegates (50%), that candidate gets all 32.
Massachusetts has 41 delegates and 38 are apportioned strictly proportionally for those candidates who get more than 20% of the vote. The last three delegates are the "leader delegates" and go unapportioned.
North Dakota has 28 delegates and they are given out proportionally. I believe these delegates are bound like Alaska and Nevada, but I can't find confirmation on that.
Ohio has 66 delegates. Three are the "leader delegates" and go unassigned. There are 3 delegates per congressional district (48 total) and the winner of each CD will get all 3 delegates. 15 additional delegates will be apportioned out to those candidates who get over 20% of the total vote unless one candidate gets 50% or more of the vote. If that happens, that candidate gets all 15 delegates.
Oklahoma has 43 delegates. Three are the "leader delegates" and go unassigned. There are 3 delegates per congressional district (15 total). These will be split 2:1 between the top two candidates in each CD. 25 additional delegates will be apportioned out to those candidates who get over 15% of the total vote unless one candidate gets 50% or more of the vote. If that happens, that candidate gets all 25 delegates.
Tennessee has 58 delegates. There are 3 delegates per congressional district (27 total). These will be split 2:1 between the top two candidates in each CD (unless one candidate gets 67% of the vote, then that candidate gets all 3 delegates). 14 additional delegates will be apportioned out to the candidates based on the overall vote assuming they get at least 20% of the total vote. 14 more delegates will be given out
by the Tennessee GOP executive committee on April 7. Three additional delegates are "leader delegates" and unassigned.
Vermont has 17 delegates. Three are "leader delegates" and unassigned. Three more will go to the overall winner. The remaining 11 delegates will give given out proportionately to those candidates who get more than 20% of the vote unless one candidate gets 50% of the vote. Then that candidate will get all 11 delegates.
Virginia has 49 delegates (nearly all of which will go to Mitt Romney as only he and Uncle Ron are on the ballot). Three are "leader delegates" and will be unassigned. Three delegates are assigned per congressional district (33 total) and the winner of each CD will receive all 3 delegates. The remaining 13 delegates will apportioned between the candidates who receive more than 15%; unless one candidate gets more than 50%, in which that candidate will receive all 13.
To recap, Mitt Romney currently has the lead both in actual delegates and projected delegates. Mr. Romney has 73 delegates locked in at the moment. He is generally credited with the two delegates that Mr. Huntsman won in New Hampshire since Mr. Huntsman endorsed Mr. Romney. Then the caucuses give Mr. Romney an additional 32 delegates. These are unreliable numbers but the general thought is that Mr. Romney has about 107 delegates.
Rick Santorum holds second place, although this is based on estimates. Mr. Santorum only has 3 hard delegates (from Nevada). But he is credited with 40 caucus delegates. The first of these states to turn soft numbers into hard delegates is Colorado on April 14. So Mr. Santorum's numbers are very sketchy at the moment.
Newt sits in third place with 29 hard delegates and an estimate of an additional 13 caucus delegates for a soft total of 42. Uncle Ron rounds out the field with 8 hard delegates and 28 caucus delegates for a soft total of 36 delegates.
Now, on to the contests.
Michigan and Arizona come first on the 28th. Arizona has 29 delegates and they go to whomever wins the state, period. Michigan is a little more complicated. Michigan has 30 delegates. Two delegates will go to whomever wins the overall state (assuming that candidate amassed more than 15% of the total vote) and two delegates will be awarded to the candidate who wins each congressional districts (Michigan has 14 CDs).
Washington state follows on Saturday, March 3. Washington has 43 delegates, but it is a caucus. The "winner" will be declared based on the straw poll, but the actual delegates won't be selected until June 2.
Then comes Super Tuesday with 10 states casting ballots.
Alaska has 27 delegates. Three are "leader delegates" who go to the convention as unpledged. These are the Republican equivalent to the Democrat superdelegates that caused so much fuss four years ago. The remaining 24 delegates are to be divided evenly based on the voting percentage that each candidate receives. This is a caucus but the delegates at this level are bound to a candidate so it's more like Nevada than other caucuses.
Georgia is largest delegate allocation of the day with 76 delegates. Georgia gives out three delegates per congressional district (42 total). If a candidate gets over 50% in a CD, they get all 3 delegates. If not, the candidate who gets the largest total in each CD gets 2 delegates while the runner-up gets 1. 31 delegates are apportioned out based on the overall results among the candidates who get more than 20% of the vote. Three additional delegates are given to the overall winner of the primary.
Idaho has 32 delegates. This might be my favorite method for choosing delegates. There is one caucus per county. The caucuses meet and vote by secret ballot. They vote in successive rounds, dropping the candidate who receives the least amount of votes each round, until either one candidate receives 50% of the vote or there are only two candidates left. If a candidate gets over 50% of the vote at that caucus (which should happen at almost all of them) that candidate will get the entire share of delegates allotted to that county. Else, the vote is split between the two candidates. Things are then added up and the delegates are apportioned out, rounding to the nearest whole number. If one candidate ends up with more than 16 delegates (50%), that candidate gets all 32.
Massachusetts has 41 delegates and 38 are apportioned strictly proportionally for those candidates who get more than 20% of the vote. The last three delegates are the "leader delegates" and go unapportioned.
North Dakota has 28 delegates and they are given out proportionally. I believe these delegates are bound like Alaska and Nevada, but I can't find confirmation on that.
Ohio has 66 delegates. Three are the "leader delegates" and go unassigned. There are 3 delegates per congressional district (48 total) and the winner of each CD will get all 3 delegates. 15 additional delegates will be apportioned out to those candidates who get over 20% of the total vote unless one candidate gets 50% or more of the vote. If that happens, that candidate gets all 15 delegates.
Oklahoma has 43 delegates. Three are the "leader delegates" and go unassigned. There are 3 delegates per congressional district (15 total). These will be split 2:1 between the top two candidates in each CD. 25 additional delegates will be apportioned out to those candidates who get over 15% of the total vote unless one candidate gets 50% or more of the vote. If that happens, that candidate gets all 25 delegates.
Tennessee has 58 delegates. There are 3 delegates per congressional district (27 total). These will be split 2:1 between the top two candidates in each CD (unless one candidate gets 67% of the vote, then that candidate gets all 3 delegates). 14 additional delegates will be apportioned out to the candidates based on the overall vote assuming they get at least 20% of the total vote. 14 more delegates will be given out
by the Tennessee GOP executive committee on April 7. Three additional delegates are "leader delegates" and unassigned.
Vermont has 17 delegates. Three are "leader delegates" and unassigned. Three more will go to the overall winner. The remaining 11 delegates will give given out proportionately to those candidates who get more than 20% of the vote unless one candidate gets 50% of the vote. Then that candidate will get all 11 delegates.
Virginia has 49 delegates (nearly all of which will go to Mitt Romney as only he and Uncle Ron are on the ballot). Three are "leader delegates" and will be unassigned. Three delegates are assigned per congressional district (33 total) and the winner of each CD will receive all 3 delegates. The remaining 13 delegates will apportioned between the candidates who receive more than 15%; unless one candidate gets more than 50%, in which that candidate will receive all 13.
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