Sweater Vests in the South

In a minor upset, Mr. Santorum won both the Alabama and Mississippi primaries. Going in to the contests all polls showed things as being very tight, although Mr. Santorum had never shown a lead in Mississippi and hadn't registered a lead in Alabama since Wednesday (Alabama St. 3/7). Newt ended up being a very close second in Mississippi and a slightly less close second in Alabama. Mr. Romney finished a disappointing third in both contests (especially as CNN's initial exit polls showed him winning Mississippi).


Still, I can't imagine that Mr. Romney feels too bad as he won both Hawaii and American Samoa as expected. The final numbers are still being digested in both Alabama and Hawaii, but it appears that with these two wins and a strong showing (even at third place) in the South, Mr. Romney will take the most delegates from the day. Mr. Romney is currently holding 39 delegates for the night, while Mr. Santorum has 32 and Newt has 24. Uncle Ron did manage to snag 1 Hawaii delegate with 14 delegates still to be allocated (most of those from Alabama).

With his failure to actually win the states, the talk is starting to get louder that Newt is to withdraw from the field. I still think that is unlikely at the moment. Newt came very close to winning Mississippi and I don't believe that his ego will allow him to drop out until he has at least contested Missouri (this Saturday) and Louisiana (next Saturday). Still, expect the calls for Newt to withdraw and endorse Mr. Santorum to only get louder as the contest continues.

As noted above, the Missouri caucus is this Saturday. This time it won't be a cakewalk for Mr. Santorum as it was during the primary. Mr. Romney will actually be trying this time and Newt will be an option (unless he withdraws before Saturday). Puerto Rico in on Sunday and that is a true winner-take-all contest. Illinois follows on Tuesday (3/20) with Louisiana rounding it out for March next Saturday (3/24).

*UPDATE*

Hawaii has fully come in with 9 delegates for Mr. Romney, 5 delegates for Mr. Santorum, and 3 delegates for Uncle Ron. Alabama still has 9 delegates outstanding which I'm assuming are coming from three congressional districts where the vote is tight.

Overall totals are 470 (422 confirmed) for Mr. Romney, 226 (176) for Mr. Santorum, 150 (133) for Newt, and 72 (34) for Uncle Ron.