Romney/Santorum Split

Over the weekend, Mr. Santorum won the Kansas Caucus decisively. Unfortunately for him, Kansas does not have the 50% winner take all threshold that many other states do. As such, he took 33 of the state's 40 delegates while Mr. Romney took the remaining 7.


Meanwhile, Mr. Romney took 7 of the 12 available county delegates in Wyoming, all 9 of the delegates from Guam, all 9 of the delegates from the Northern Marinaras, and 7 of the 9 available delegates from the US Virgin Islands.

In the end, Mr. Romney emerged from the weekend with 39 additional delegates. Mr. Santorum finished with 36 additional delegates, while Uncle Ron scratched together 2 additional delegates. This gives Mr. Romney a tentative total of 430 (382 confirmed) delegates while Mr. Santorum lags behind at 192 (142 confirmed). Newt is also still in play with 126 delegates (109 confirmed).

Tomorrow all eyes will be on the South. Hawaii and American Samoa hold caucuses but their delegate allocations are fairly small (20 and 9 respectively) and will be likely taken easily by Mr. Romney. Mississippi and Alabama will have 90 total delegates in play and the additional storyline of Newt's last stand. Newt is already crippled both in total delegate count and by the fact that finished third in Tennessee. If he fails to win either of the two southern contests, it puts the kibosh on his Southern strategy and effectively destroying any path he has to the nomination.

If Newt had run strong in the South, he could have walked in to the convention with a unified South and then tried to convince the Midwest and the Plains to break away and support him. But without a unified South, Newt will be left flapping in the wind. Now, if he loses, does that means that Newt will actually drop out is another story.