Super Tuesday Handicapping

This year, Super Tuesday has ten states all going to the polls or holding caucuses. One would like to think that the playing field is level, but in reality, the outcome of certain states is probably pretty obvious. We'll go through each state and have a look at what we should expect.

Alaska (27) - I can honestly say that I have no idea what will happen here. The re-election of Senator Murkowski two years ago suggests that there might be a strong Romney presence. But you also have the strong independent streak that might favor Santorum or Newt. I'm going to punt on this one.

Idaho (32) - This will similar to other Mountain West contests in that it will pit Romney and Santorum head-to-head with Uncle Ron playing spoiler. I think the Mormon vote (which could be as large as 30% of the electorate) along the Utah border and the slightly more liberal areas around Boise will go for Mr. Romney while the interior areas favor Mr. Santorum. As with the rest of the Rocky states, Uncle Ron will syphon off a number of votes (probably from both candidates). I think Mr. Romney has a slight edge but the delegate split is likely to be close to 50-50 given the way that Idaho elects their delegates.

North Dakota (28) - We've not had a true plain states contest yet so the closest you can compare it to would be western Minnesota and western Iowa. In both those contests, Mr. Santorum did very well. I would expect him to take North Dakota.

Oklahoma (43) - Limited polling (taken before the debate on the 22nd) showed Mr. Santorum with a large lead. I doubt the results in Michigan will affect that lead much. Mr. Santorum's social issue platform plays well in this very conservative state so I would expect a strong Santorum win here.

Georgia (76) - Newt's home state and he should win easily here. Despite a natural homefield, Newt has spent a reasonable amount of time campaigning here. That is reflected in his 15-point lead in the polls. However, the fact that Newt has spent so much time here (where he shouldn't have to) suggests that he is not going to be much of a factor elsewhere.

Tennessee (58) - This is a prime example of the problem that Georgia showed. What limited polling has been done shows that Mr. Santorum holds nearly a 2-1 advantage over Mr. Romney. Newt is sitting back in 3rd place, having just managed to crawl out of 4th place. The campaign could change things, but I still expect Mr. Santorum to win Tennessee easily.

Virginia (49) - Only Mr. Romney and Uncle Ron are on the ballot. Mr. Romney may win every county in Virginia and should win close to all the delegates overall.

Massachusetts (41) - Despite all the hot air over Michigan, this is actually Mr. Romney's home state. He should win handily here. The only real problem he has is how the delegates are divided. As long as one of his opponents clears 20%, he'll lose out on about 1/3 of the delegates despite crushing his opposition.

Vermont (17) - Again Mr. Romney should win Vermont easily. If he can clear 50% of the total vote, he'll take all the delegates there.

Ohio (66) - I've saved Ohio for last for several reasons. First, I live in Ohio and like to talk most about it. Second, although being second in total number of available delegates (to Georgia) it is viewed as the most open of all the campaigns and could see some wild swings. Virginia might have held this role if Mr. Santorum had gotten on the ballot there, but he didn't.

The natural demographics of Ohio favor Mr. Santorum, especially if Newt continues to be seen as an also ran. Unlike Michigan, there aren't a whole lot of districts packed into a single city so there won't be a way to snag a whole lot of delegates in a tight area. Mr. Romney will probably win the more urban areas of Columbus, Cleveland, and Toledo, but that won't buy him much in terms of delegate haul. More to his advantage is the fact that Mr. Santorum didn't file a slate of delegates in three congressional districts (6, 9, and 13). CD 9 is the lake front from Toledo to Cleveland and 13 is the area between Youngstown and Akron. I would expect Mr. Romney to do better in these areas anyway but why give your opponent a free ride? The loss of delegates in CD 6 is an even bigger unforced error. This is the rural, mountainous area bordering West Virginia and Kentucky. Most voters here are poor, working class folks and tend to be more conservative Democrats. These are the people that Mr. Romney is having a very hard time capturing and would have been an easy win for Mr. Santorum. He may end up winning this area (allowing him to contribute to the statewide vote) on the overall vote, but the voters would have to go to their second choice candidate for the actual CD delegates.

Recaping, I would say that Mr. Romney has three guaranteed wins (VT, MA, VA) with a potential for at least three more (ID, AK, OH). Mr. Santorum is looking at three strong possible wins (ND, OK, TN) with the same three states being more questionable. Newt's only real play is Georgia and a prayer that he breaks into second place in some of the other states.