Northeast Voting

I still don't like this new format. Makes posting harder.

The rest of New England and the upper Eastern seaboard (Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, Delaware, and Pennsylvania) go to the polls today. The majority would have gone to Mitt Romney anyway, but with Rick Santorum out of the running, things should be even clearer for Mr. Romney.

Of course, that's where the wheels start to come off. He shouldn't have any problems in Rhode Island (16 delegates), Connecticut (25 delegates), and New York (92 delegates). I'd be a bit surprised if Mr. Romney didn't win all of the New England delegates and over 80% of the New York delegates. But there is still Delaware (17 delegates) and Pennsylvania (69 delegates) to contend with.

Delaware is in consideration because Newt has been camping out for the past week there and made some allusions that this is the hill that he will die on. He's over $5 million in debt and needs something to get his name back in the papers before Indiana, North Carolina, and West Virginia (states that would not necessarily have been strong for Mr. Romney a few weeks ago) on May 8. Delaware's size makes for a good stand from an economic point of view, but there are a lot of businesses there and its political make-up is far more moderate, both advantages to Mr. Romney. It also is winner-take-all so that if Mr. Romney beats Newt by one vote, everything Newt did there is for naught in terms of actual delegates.

Pennsylvania is more of a litmus test on Mr. Romney. Polling has been highly limited since Mr. Santorum dropped out, but in what limited polling has been done, Mr. Romney has never really jumped out to any kind of lead. Mr. Santorum will still be on the ballot (and let's not forget Uncle Ron as well) for anyone to register their lack of enthusiasm for Mr. Romney. I would be highly surprised if Mr. Romney did not win the state, but if Mr. Romney fails to carry large sections of the interior of Pennsylvania, it will be a further sign that he still has a ways to go in truly consolidating the base.

Polls close at 8 pm EDT in Connecticut, Delaware, and Pennsylvania and 9 pm EDT in Rhode Island and New York.