Maryland, Washington DC, and Wisconsin go to the polls today. Maryland and DC should go for Mr. Romney easily and the polls are suggesting that he will take Wisconsin as well.
DC is winner-take-all of 16 delegates (and Mr. Santorum is not on the ballot) so we can just give those to Mr. Romney.
Maryland is winner-take-all for 13 delegates and 3 delegates for each of the 8 Congressional Districts (for a total of 37 delegates). Mr. Romney should take the overall and probably the majority of the districts. I would expect Mr. Romney to take upwards of 31 delegates from Maryland.
Wisconsin will be a bit closer but Mr. Romney is favored in all the polls. Wisconsin is winner-take-all for 18 delegates and, like Maryland, gives 3 delegates for the winner of each Congressional District. This puts 42 delegates in play. If Mr. Romney wins a majority of the CDs, he'll earn upwards of 33 delegates.
Lumping it all together, Mr. Romney is looking at picking up around 80 of the 98 available delegates. That should push Mr. Romney's total number of delegates to over 600 among the projected numbers and close to 575 on the hard numbers. Either way, he'll have crossed the 50% threshold with the even more favorable terrain of Connecticut, Delaware, Rhode Island, and New York to look forward to on the 24th.
This will not be a true fatal blow to Mr. Santorum, but consensus does seem to be strengthening around Mr. Romney and the numbers are starting to fully break his way. If Mr. Santorum can keep some money flowing in, he'll probably rebound a bit in May, but the math is starting to look solid that Mr. Romney will mathematically lock things up by the time that things wrap up in June.
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