Senate Glance

With the Republican Presidential nomination all but wrapped up and a good couple of months before we get real insight into who Mr. Romney will pick as his running mate, we can turn our attention to the Congressional races.

There's not much to say as far as the House goes. I've not been able to find a national map with the new districts and the races here in Ohio are pretty cut and dried. The Senate on the other hand, does offer some interesting examination.

The current make-up of the Senate is 53-47 with the Democrats in control. This year it just so happens that the majority of seats up for election are in Democrat hands (23-10), so their majority is in jeopardy. What really hurts the Democrats is that they are almost sure to lose at least two seats (North Dakota and Nebraska), while the Democrats are only looking at one seat likely to change hands (Maine).

To be fair, the Democrats have a fair chance at taking at least two more seats from the Republicans in Massachusetts (Scott Brown) and Nevada (Dean Heller). Brown and his Democrat challenger (Elizabeth Warren) have been trading back and forth in the polls, with neither being able to get more than a few points in the lead before the other one claws back. Heller should be a bit safer but Democrats have done better in Nevada in the past four years and if Nevada says blue in the Presidential race, it could give the Democrats a chance to take the seat.

Prospects for additional Republican pick-ups are a bit better. The prize targets are Florida (Bill Nelson), Ohio (Sherrod Brown), Missouri (Claire McCaskill), Montana (Jon Tester), and Virginia (open). I would also expect money (and a few Romney visits) to be thrown at Michigan (Debbie Stabenow), Pennsylvania (Bob Casey), West Virginia (Joe Manchin), and Wisconsin (open). If the Republicans managed to win all of these seats and only lose the Maine (open) seat (a long shot but possible), they would take control of the Senate 57-43.

I doubt that would happen, but the Democrats are going to need a strong turnout from their base and grab a good number of independent voters if they want to retain their majority in the Senate.