There are three contests today, none of which result in any actual delegates being awarded. There will be some assumptions for Colorado and Minnesota, much like Iowa so we will probably see the delegate summaries on the various news networks toggle in some fashion. Missouri is a complete beauty contest so even less attention will be payed to that.
The one interesting thing that will come out of today will be how the spin goes. If polling is to be believed, Mr. Romney will win Colorado while Mr. Santorum will win Minnesota and Missouri. If you are keeping score, that means that Mr. Romney will have won four contests (New Hampshire, Florida, Nevada, and Colorado) while not-Romney has also won four (Iowa, South Carolina, Minnesota, and Missouri). In the four contests that Mr. Romney has won, it's been a complete blow out, usually with saturation bombing of negative advertising. However, turnout was down a bit in Florida, significantly down in Nevada, and only up a slight amount in New Hampshire. Conversely, turnout was significantly up in Iowa and South Carolina (even though SC was a blowout for Newt).
The turnout numbers will likely be skewed from four years ago as Mr. McCain was starting to settle in on his victory tour by this point but I would still be interested to see if the idea of a proper contest between Mr. Romney and those opposed to him generate higher turnout. If the turnout is low in Colorado (or if Mr. Santorum finishes closer than the 10 point margin he is behind) and turnout is up in Missouri and Minnesota, there could be some discussion among the various talking heads that Mr. Romney hasn't quite sewn this thing up yet. We shall find out tonight.
Tuesday, February 07, 2012
Monday, February 06, 2012
Then the Game
For a totally bleh match-up, it was quite a good game. I didn't particularly care who won (I was slightly leaning toward the Giants) but was hopeful that it would be an entertaining game. In this, I was not disappointed.
The Patriots were clearly a little off in the beginning as the nerves about the Giants defensive line was obvious. However, they settled down quickly and the Patriots offensive line handled the Giants defensive line well. Brady was under some pressure, but it never got to the point where you could see him getting happy feet. In fact, more pressure seemed to be applied to Eli, who was sacked more and getting whacked a lot more than Brady was.
In the third quarter and early in the fourth quarter, I though the Patriots were going to pull away and win the game. The Giants weren't getting good pressure and they were consistently giving up the check down pass which the Patriots used to march down the field. Two specific plays cost the Patriots a chance to ice the game. Brady got greedy and threw his deep pass to his injured tight end. If he were healthy, it would have been at worst knocked down and may have even been caught. Instead it was intercepted. The following drive, Wes Welker dropped a pass that was a bit overthrown, but still catchable. Had he caught that, the Patriots would have been at the 20 with less than four minutes to go and up by 2.
The Giants drive that won them the game was impressive but the Patriots secondary had been weak all season and it didn't surprise me that the Giants were able to drive down the field. I was rather amused when the play that Cris Collinsworth mentioned two plays earlier (taking a knee at the one yard line) actually happened. In this case, the running back was so surprised by the parting of the sea, he couldn't stop his momentum.
The praise of Brady was as over the top as I expected. It was quite obvious that since Brady had won his first two Super Bowls on game winning drives, this would be no different. There were two very big differences in those though. In the first two, the game was tied. The game is very different when all you have to do is lead your team into field goal range than when you have to get a touchdown. Second, the Patriots were not operating with the full complement of weapons that they had in previous Super Bowls. They only had two decent wide receivers and one tight who was healthy enough to make the cuts needed. Still, the Patriots did manage to get to mid-field and did come surprisingly close to making the hail mary. The initial receiver was triple covered but the tight end was lurking below and came very close to catching the ball as it was knocked down.
So a good game. Kind of a meh season overall, although at least the Bengals did make the playoffs. Maybe they'll actually manage to be better next year.
I offer no opinions on either the halftime show or the commercials this year. Mrs. X and I were folding laundry during the halftime show and the music was barely registering to me in the background. The commercials were meh at best and all very predictable. I must say that I was slightly amused at the dog bribing the man about his wife's cat with Doritos. I know a few people that could easily bought for that price.
The Patriots were clearly a little off in the beginning as the nerves about the Giants defensive line was obvious. However, they settled down quickly and the Patriots offensive line handled the Giants defensive line well. Brady was under some pressure, but it never got to the point where you could see him getting happy feet. In fact, more pressure seemed to be applied to Eli, who was sacked more and getting whacked a lot more than Brady was.
In the third quarter and early in the fourth quarter, I though the Patriots were going to pull away and win the game. The Giants weren't getting good pressure and they were consistently giving up the check down pass which the Patriots used to march down the field. Two specific plays cost the Patriots a chance to ice the game. Brady got greedy and threw his deep pass to his injured tight end. If he were healthy, it would have been at worst knocked down and may have even been caught. Instead it was intercepted. The following drive, Wes Welker dropped a pass that was a bit overthrown, but still catchable. Had he caught that, the Patriots would have been at the 20 with less than four minutes to go and up by 2.
The Giants drive that won them the game was impressive but the Patriots secondary had been weak all season and it didn't surprise me that the Giants were able to drive down the field. I was rather amused when the play that Cris Collinsworth mentioned two plays earlier (taking a knee at the one yard line) actually happened. In this case, the running back was so surprised by the parting of the sea, he couldn't stop his momentum.
The praise of Brady was as over the top as I expected. It was quite obvious that since Brady had won his first two Super Bowls on game winning drives, this would be no different. There were two very big differences in those though. In the first two, the game was tied. The game is very different when all you have to do is lead your team into field goal range than when you have to get a touchdown. Second, the Patriots were not operating with the full complement of weapons that they had in previous Super Bowls. They only had two decent wide receivers and one tight who was healthy enough to make the cuts needed. Still, the Patriots did manage to get to mid-field and did come surprisingly close to making the hail mary. The initial receiver was triple covered but the tight end was lurking below and came very close to catching the ball as it was knocked down.
So a good game. Kind of a meh season overall, although at least the Bengals did make the playoffs. Maybe they'll actually manage to be better next year.
I offer no opinions on either the halftime show or the commercials this year. Mrs. X and I were folding laundry during the halftime show and the music was barely registering to me in the background. The commercials were meh at best and all very predictable. I must say that I was slightly amused at the dog bribing the man about his wife's cat with Doritos. I know a few people that could easily bought for that price.
First Nevada
I don't know if it was because of the Super Bowl, but Clark County (where Las Vegas is located) took two full days to finish counting the caucus ballots. In the end, it didn't matter much. Mitt Romney took the state handily with 50% of the total votes. Newt took 21% for second place in what had to be a disappointment for Uncle Ron. Uncle Ron fell to third with 19% of the vote and Rick Santorum rounded out with 10%.
Unlike most caucus states (such as tomorrow's Colorado and Minnesota), delegate allocations are awarded at this level. The individual delegates won't be selected until the state convention, but the awards have been decided. Mr. Romney will receive 14 delegates, Newt gets 6, Uncle Ron 5, and Mr. Santorum 3. That brings the hard total up to 73 (81 soft) for Mr. Romney, 29 (33) for Newt, 8 (14) for Uncle Ron, and 3 (9) for Mr. Santorum.
There are three contests tomorrow: the aforementioned Colorado and Minnesota Caucuses and the Missouri primary. No delegates will be awarded at any of these contests, although they will probably have influences on the state conventions and the actual Missouri Caucuses that will be held on March 17. At the moment, Mr. Romney has a strong lead in Colorado with Mr. Santorum holding the second spot (mostly due to his support from former congressman Tom Tancredo). Mr. Santorum has a very narrow lead in Minnesota as well over Mr. Romney, but I think Minnesota could swing wildly during the actual caucuses. Mr. Santorum is also leading in Missouri (helped strongly by the fact that Newt failed to get on the ballot). In terms of actual delegate allocation, tomorrow won't matter for much. However, if things break for Mr. Santorum as much as they seem to be, it would provide him with a much needed surge in momentum and a revaulting back into the primary "not-Romney" position.
Unlike most caucus states (such as tomorrow's Colorado and Minnesota), delegate allocations are awarded at this level. The individual delegates won't be selected until the state convention, but the awards have been decided. Mr. Romney will receive 14 delegates, Newt gets 6, Uncle Ron 5, and Mr. Santorum 3. That brings the hard total up to 73 (81 soft) for Mr. Romney, 29 (33) for Newt, 8 (14) for Uncle Ron, and 3 (9) for Mr. Santorum.
There are three contests tomorrow: the aforementioned Colorado and Minnesota Caucuses and the Missouri primary. No delegates will be awarded at any of these contests, although they will probably have influences on the state conventions and the actual Missouri Caucuses that will be held on March 17. At the moment, Mr. Romney has a strong lead in Colorado with Mr. Santorum holding the second spot (mostly due to his support from former congressman Tom Tancredo). Mr. Santorum has a very narrow lead in Minnesota as well over Mr. Romney, but I think Minnesota could swing wildly during the actual caucuses. Mr. Santorum is also leading in Missouri (helped strongly by the fact that Newt failed to get on the ballot). In terms of actual delegate allocation, tomorrow won't matter for much. However, if things break for Mr. Santorum as much as they seem to be, it would provide him with a much needed surge in momentum and a revaulting back into the primary "not-Romney" position.
Thursday, February 02, 2012
Delegate Challenge
In another sign that you can't trust any of the delegate counts yet, the news has surfaced that Newt intends to challenge Florida's winner-take-all policy.
It seems that the RNC has a rule that states that no state may have a winner-take-all policy until after April 1. Florida got around this because they were already under sanction for jumping out of their place in line to the end of January. This sanction took half of their 99 delegates and reduced it to 50 delegates. It is unlikely that the RNC will opt to impose two rounds of penalties on Florida (which is what forcing proportionality would do since it would upend what the state voted on) but this is still a good idea for Newt.
Based on what happened in the Democrat 2008 primary (and especially considering that the Republican convention is in Tampa this year) it is highly unlikely that the RNC will actually refuse to seat the removed 49 delegates from Florida. This has the net effect of the RNC punishment to be zero. So, knowing that Florida will probably get it's full 99 delegates anyway, why not challenge for proportionality. The RNC might see this as an easy opt-out situation. They agree to give Florida their full delegate roster in exchange for the proportionality agreement. Florida won't care because the full seating of their delegates is what they really want. Who they actually vote for is irrelevant.
The RNC will probably not act to vote on this until May or June, by which time, all of this might be irrelevant. If the rules are changed to the above scenario, Mr. Romney would actually lose 4 delegates to give him 46. Newt would then get 32 delegates, while Mr. Santorum gets 13 and Uncle Ron gets 7. That would leave one additional delegate to be assigned and I would guess that would go to Mr. Romney as winner of the primary.
All this would change the delegate totals somewhat, although things are still so much in flux that it's hard to see it that much. Mr. Romney's current hard total of 59 would be reduced to 56 while Newt's hard total would increase to 55. Uncle Ron would bump up to 10 while Mr. Santorum would actually get on the board at 13. All of these candidates will be getting more delegates from Iowa later but since nothing will be set until mid-June, speculating about totals doesn't help much.
More of interest will be gained with the contest in Nevada on Saturday and in Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri on Tuesday.
It seems that the RNC has a rule that states that no state may have a winner-take-all policy until after April 1. Florida got around this because they were already under sanction for jumping out of their place in line to the end of January. This sanction took half of their 99 delegates and reduced it to 50 delegates. It is unlikely that the RNC will opt to impose two rounds of penalties on Florida (which is what forcing proportionality would do since it would upend what the state voted on) but this is still a good idea for Newt.
Based on what happened in the Democrat 2008 primary (and especially considering that the Republican convention is in Tampa this year) it is highly unlikely that the RNC will actually refuse to seat the removed 49 delegates from Florida. This has the net effect of the RNC punishment to be zero. So, knowing that Florida will probably get it's full 99 delegates anyway, why not challenge for proportionality. The RNC might see this as an easy opt-out situation. They agree to give Florida their full delegate roster in exchange for the proportionality agreement. Florida won't care because the full seating of their delegates is what they really want. Who they actually vote for is irrelevant.
The RNC will probably not act to vote on this until May or June, by which time, all of this might be irrelevant. If the rules are changed to the above scenario, Mr. Romney would actually lose 4 delegates to give him 46. Newt would then get 32 delegates, while Mr. Santorum gets 13 and Uncle Ron gets 7. That would leave one additional delegate to be assigned and I would guess that would go to Mr. Romney as winner of the primary.
All this would change the delegate totals somewhat, although things are still so much in flux that it's hard to see it that much. Mr. Romney's current hard total of 59 would be reduced to 56 while Newt's hard total would increase to 55. Uncle Ron would bump up to 10 while Mr. Santorum would actually get on the board at 13. All of these candidates will be getting more delegates from Iowa later but since nothing will be set until mid-June, speculating about totals doesn't help much.
More of interest will be gained with the contest in Nevada on Saturday and in Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri on Tuesday.
Wednesday, February 01, 2012
Five Percent
To no one's surprise, Mr. Romney did win Florida. The one surprise was by how large a margin he won (14 points). To a significant degree, this was a two-man race. Neither Uncle Ron nor Mr. Santorum had the money to do any ad buys in the expensive state and only spent a little money on organization offices and some tours around the state. Their 7 and 13% showings tend to reflect this lack of attention.
Mr. Romney was heavily buoyed by the early voting. The early numbers that went up over the networks were all due to early voting and Mr. Romney consistently held around 50% of the vote in those cases. His percentage steadily went down as the actual election day votes came in (even more so as the panhandle votes came in, which Newt won).
As noted in yesterday's post, all four men are soldiering on. For three of them, it's going to be nibbling at Mr. Romney's heels until Super Tuesday. He will be favored in most of the states but none are winner take all and I think there is enough dissatisfaction with Mr. Romney that there will be delegate allocation to other candidates.
February hands out 196 delegates as opposed to the 115 that were handed out in January (although this is theoretical as caucus state do not award delegates until their state conventions which are held later). The hard count stands at 59 for Romney, 23 for Gingrich, and 3 for Paul. Santorum has been credited in most standing with anywhere between 6 and 12 delegates for Iowa, but he won't know how many he's actually getting until mid-June. Likewise with Mr. Romney who gets anywhere from 6 to 12 Iowa delegates and is generally awarded Mr. Huntsman's 2 delegates from New Hampshire. So, given how you slice it, Mr. Romney has anywhere between 5 and 6.5% of the delegates he needs to win the nomination (1144).
Nevada theoretically gives out 28 delegates on Saturday (although they won't actually be allocated until the state convention on May 6) with Colorado and Minnesota giving out an additional 76 theoretical delegates on February 7 (state conventions are April 14 and May 5 respectively).
Mr. Romney was heavily buoyed by the early voting. The early numbers that went up over the networks were all due to early voting and Mr. Romney consistently held around 50% of the vote in those cases. His percentage steadily went down as the actual election day votes came in (even more so as the panhandle votes came in, which Newt won).
As noted in yesterday's post, all four men are soldiering on. For three of them, it's going to be nibbling at Mr. Romney's heels until Super Tuesday. He will be favored in most of the states but none are winner take all and I think there is enough dissatisfaction with Mr. Romney that there will be delegate allocation to other candidates.
February hands out 196 delegates as opposed to the 115 that were handed out in January (although this is theoretical as caucus state do not award delegates until their state conventions which are held later). The hard count stands at 59 for Romney, 23 for Gingrich, and 3 for Paul. Santorum has been credited in most standing with anywhere between 6 and 12 delegates for Iowa, but he won't know how many he's actually getting until mid-June. Likewise with Mr. Romney who gets anywhere from 6 to 12 Iowa delegates and is generally awarded Mr. Huntsman's 2 delegates from New Hampshire. So, given how you slice it, Mr. Romney has anywhere between 5 and 6.5% of the delegates he needs to win the nomination (1144).
Nevada theoretically gives out 28 delegates on Saturday (although they won't actually be allocated until the state convention on May 6) with Colorado and Minnesota giving out an additional 76 theoretical delegates on February 7 (state conventions are April 14 and May 5 respectively).
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
Florida - Meh
Barring some very weird skewing of the final vote in defiance of the polls, Mr. Romney will win Florida tonight. Newt will almost certainly finish in second place while Mr. Santorum and Uncle Ron slug it out for third.
The only question is what the final numbers are going to be and even that isn't that interesting. Florida (because of the penalty inflicted by the RNC for going early) lost half it's delegates and will be awarding them all to the winner rather than proportionately. As such, it doesn't matter whether Mr. Romney wins by 1 or 100,000 votes, he gets all 50 of Florida's delegates.
The anticipation is also diminished in that no one is going to drop out after Florida. The first four contests in February (Nevada, Maine, Colorado, and Minnesota) are caucuses which are easier to be competitive in on a shoestring budget (like Uncle Ron and Mr. Santorum are on). Missouri will have a primary but it's non-binding and means nothing outside of PR. Thus we do not have an actual primary which would require dipping harder in the budget until the end of February when Arizona and Michigan come up to bat (Michigan will be ceded to Mr. Romney. His father was governor there back in the 1960s and he has remained very popular in the state). Of course, once you've gotten this far, you might as well stay in one more week until Super Tuesday. So I don't believe that we will see the field reduced again until Super Tuesday at least.
Still, it will be fun to see the talking heads attempt to read the tea leaves and either claim or deny that the margin of victory and what people voted for whom means if you project forward to other states and the general election. The one narrative that could become very interesting is if Mr. Romney fails to win by the margin that the polls projected him at. Some polls had him building a large lead of 15 or more points. Others showed the gap narrowing to an 8 point lead. I would suspect that if the margin of victory is either less than 10 points or if Mr. Romney fails to clear 40% of the vote, there will be a discussion of how he is still vulnerable and is still failing to get conservative voters to fall in line.
Of course, if Mr. Romney blows his competition out of the water the discussion will be that opposition to him is essentially a waste of time and that we should start looking forward to Mr. Romney vs. Mr. Obama. We'll find out in a few hours. Most polls close at 7 pm EST but there are those in the panhandle that close at 7 pm CST so the News shows won't be able to announce full results (and the projected winner) until 8 pm EST.
The only question is what the final numbers are going to be and even that isn't that interesting. Florida (because of the penalty inflicted by the RNC for going early) lost half it's delegates and will be awarding them all to the winner rather than proportionately. As such, it doesn't matter whether Mr. Romney wins by 1 or 100,000 votes, he gets all 50 of Florida's delegates.
The anticipation is also diminished in that no one is going to drop out after Florida. The first four contests in February (Nevada, Maine, Colorado, and Minnesota) are caucuses which are easier to be competitive in on a shoestring budget (like Uncle Ron and Mr. Santorum are on). Missouri will have a primary but it's non-binding and means nothing outside of PR. Thus we do not have an actual primary which would require dipping harder in the budget until the end of February when Arizona and Michigan come up to bat (Michigan will be ceded to Mr. Romney. His father was governor there back in the 1960s and he has remained very popular in the state). Of course, once you've gotten this far, you might as well stay in one more week until Super Tuesday. So I don't believe that we will see the field reduced again until Super Tuesday at least.
Still, it will be fun to see the talking heads attempt to read the tea leaves and either claim or deny that the margin of victory and what people voted for whom means if you project forward to other states and the general election. The one narrative that could become very interesting is if Mr. Romney fails to win by the margin that the polls projected him at. Some polls had him building a large lead of 15 or more points. Others showed the gap narrowing to an 8 point lead. I would suspect that if the margin of victory is either less than 10 points or if Mr. Romney fails to clear 40% of the vote, there will be a discussion of how he is still vulnerable and is still failing to get conservative voters to fall in line.
Of course, if Mr. Romney blows his competition out of the water the discussion will be that opposition to him is essentially a waste of time and that we should start looking forward to Mr. Romney vs. Mr. Obama. We'll find out in a few hours. Most polls close at 7 pm EST but there are those in the panhandle that close at 7 pm CST so the News shows won't be able to announce full results (and the projected winner) until 8 pm EST.
Trivia Question of the Day
I saw this in a Google ad and thought it a good trivia question.
Q: Did the state of Florida vote for the last President elected who was neither a Democrat or a Republican?
A: Yes. Florida's 3 electoral votes were won by Zachary Taylor (Whig) in 1848.
Q: Did the state of Florida vote for the last President elected who was neither a Democrat or a Republican?
A: Yes. Florida's 3 electoral votes were won by Zachary Taylor (Whig) in 1848.
Friday, January 27, 2012
Florida Fluidity
What a difference a week makes. Last Friday, Newt was surging to the cusp of a dramatic win in South Carolina and Mr. Romney was looking battered and bruised. Now it is Newt that is looking battered and bruised. Mr. Romney has staunched the bleeding and is now moving to win Florida and take it's 50 delegates (winner-take-all primary).
The current delegate count is as follows:
Romney: 17
Gingrich: 27
Santorum: 6
Paul: 9
Huntsman: 2
There are more delegates that have to be allocated from the three previously decided contests, but those have not been fully calculated and allocated yet. So other totals are estimations based on what we do know. Most of those are given to Mr. Romney, who is believed to be working with 31 delegates at the moment. Winning Florida would bump up his total to at least 67 and perhaps as high as 81. Of course, it takes 1,144 delegates to secure the nomination so there is still a long way to go just yet.
The real curiosity will be in how things shake out from last night. Mr. Romney did well in the beginning but then got torn up by Mr. Santorum on his support for health care mandates. That won't dent much of Mr. Romney's support so I'd still look for him to settle in to the 35-40% range. However, Newt did not engage and scored no point for himself. With the conservative take down that Mr. Santorum gave, it is possible that some of the soft surge that Newt had gotten from South Carolina will bleed over to Mr. Santorum. That could end up putting both men in the twenties (high for Newt, low for Santorum) with Uncle Ron rounding out the field at around 10%. We'll see how things go. Perhaps some of the ads or some outside influence will change things beyond this before Tuesday. But this is my take at the moment.
The current delegate count is as follows:
Romney: 17
Gingrich: 27
Santorum: 6
Paul: 9
Huntsman: 2
There are more delegates that have to be allocated from the three previously decided contests, but those have not been fully calculated and allocated yet. So other totals are estimations based on what we do know. Most of those are given to Mr. Romney, who is believed to be working with 31 delegates at the moment. Winning Florida would bump up his total to at least 67 and perhaps as high as 81. Of course, it takes 1,144 delegates to secure the nomination so there is still a long way to go just yet.
The real curiosity will be in how things shake out from last night. Mr. Romney did well in the beginning but then got torn up by Mr. Santorum on his support for health care mandates. That won't dent much of Mr. Romney's support so I'd still look for him to settle in to the 35-40% range. However, Newt did not engage and scored no point for himself. With the conservative take down that Mr. Santorum gave, it is possible that some of the soft surge that Newt had gotten from South Carolina will bleed over to Mr. Santorum. That could end up putting both men in the twenties (high for Newt, low for Santorum) with Uncle Ron rounding out the field at around 10%. We'll see how things go. Perhaps some of the ads or some outside influence will change things beyond this before Tuesday. But this is my take at the moment.
Saturday, January 21, 2012
She Turned Me Into a Newt...
I got better.
I'm not sure why CNN was so behind the curve in calling South Carolina for Newt. But, it's a moo point now. With 94% off the vote in, Newt has 40%. Romney is second with 27%, Santorum is third with 17% and Uncle Ron rounds out the field with 13%.
I'm watching Gingrich's speech at the moment. He's laying it on thick as the champion of the conservative people (flipping off the so-called elites even in his own party). It might work. It may not. Florida will be interesting. Newt may challenge Romney but he's going to need an infusion of capital to fight the rest of the way.
I'm not sure why CNN was so behind the curve in calling South Carolina for Newt. But, it's a moo point now. With 94% off the vote in, Newt has 40%. Romney is second with 27%, Santorum is third with 17% and Uncle Ron rounds out the field with 13%.
I'm watching Gingrich's speech at the moment. He's laying it on thick as the champion of the conservative people (flipping off the so-called elites even in his own party). It might work. It may not. Florida will be interesting. Newt may challenge Romney but he's going to need an infusion of capital to fight the rest of the way.
Friday, January 20, 2012
Dynamics
So a funny thing happened on the way to the coronation of Mitt Romney as the Republican nominee. Yesterday it was revealed that eight counties in Iowa failed to report all of their ballots. As a result, Rick Santorum is the actual winner of Iowa by 34 votes.
Meanwhile Mitt Romney has stumbled in the last two debates and, as a result, has fallen to second place in the polling for South Carolina behind Newt. Now, this doesn't mean that much. Romney could still pull out a win in South Carolina. But even he doesn't, Florida may still provide a good make up win.
After that you have Nevada and Michigan which will probably be Romney wins. Still we could be surprised. It'll be curious to see how quickly things are called tomorrow.
Meanwhile Mitt Romney has stumbled in the last two debates and, as a result, has fallen to second place in the polling for South Carolina behind Newt. Now, this doesn't mean that much. Romney could still pull out a win in South Carolina. But even he doesn't, Florida may still provide a good make up win.
After that you have Nevada and Michigan which will probably be Romney wins. Still we could be surprised. It'll be curious to see how quickly things are called tomorrow.
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
Myst Ret-Con Annoyances
One of the things that has always bugged me (and I think a lot of other people) is the concept of ret-con. Put simply, this is something where some writer or designer didn't like how something happened in a previous chapter of a story and then either invents some way to dismiss it, or simply pretends that events didn't happen that way to begin with.
Frankly, it's a lazy way out. If you want to continue a story, use your imagination and come up with one. Don't just say something didn't happen because you have a new story that you want to tell but there is this little detail from the past that blows a huge hole in your story.
One example that jumps out at me is about one of my favorite games when I was in high school: Myst. Myst was a first person puzzle game that came out in 1993. The storyline was that a stranger had come across a book called Myst and when he opened it, he was transported to an island in a completely different world. As the game evolves, the player learns that two brothers, Sirrus and Achenar, have been trapped in books and need to have the pages of these books returned from other worlds to free them. However, as the player does this, he learns that both men are very dangerous. In the end, the player learns that they were caught in traps set by their father, Atrus, as they moved to get rid of him so that they could control everything themselves. In winning the game, the player frees Atrus from his own prison and he subsequently destroys the books that his sons were trapped in (presumably killing them).
This theme was continued in the sequel Riven. In that game, the player goes on a quest on behalf of Atrus to capture his father, Ghen, in a prison book and then free Atrus' wife Catherine.
The third game, Myst III: Exile, deals with the earlier actions of Sirrus and Achenar and their effects on a man named Saavedro, who had tried to stop them. It doesn't mention or use prison books.
Then comes the fourth game, Myst IV: Revelation. Apparently the game designers had been grousing for a few years that prison books didn't actually exist (despite creating two games where they were central plot points) and finally implemented this thought. In the fourth game, it is revealed that Sirrus and Achenar were not caught in prison books but in prison ages (small worlds that didn't have any linking book out of them). The storyline then follows the effects of Atrus, Catherine, and their daughter Yeesha of their attepts to contact the brothers and their possible release if they had reformed. The storyline is somewhat weak in this game and the game designers ret-con of the prison books throws everything out of whack.
If there was nothing special about the books that trapped the brothers in the first game and they were just links to other worlds without exits, then there is not much point to the game. There would have been no need to collect pages from other worlds because if pages were missing from the books, they wouldn't have worked (this is how they trapped their father in the world called D'ni). Likewise, how would the player have known anything as communication with the brother in their books is a key element in how the player learns both what to do and who to trust in the end.
The idea that prison books don't exist also blows Riven completely out of the water as well. The whole point of the story is to capture Ghen. There is a key point in the game where Ghen is close to falling into the trap but he has the player go into the trap first. This idea fits with his personality as developed in the game. When the prison book concept is used, it works well because the prison can only hold one person. If you go in, you're trapped until Ghen uses the book. Then he is trapped and you are set free. But if the concept of prison ages is used (as discussed in the context of Myst IV), the game is a dead end. The player would go to the prison age while Ghen follows. Both would be trapped (Ghen would probably kill the player in a fit of rage) and Catherine would still be imprisoned. With the disappearance of Ghen, it is likely that Ghen's followers would assume that the rebels had killed him and kill Catherine in retaliation. Not exactly a good ending to a game.
This is perhaps an extreme reaction but it was something I recently read about and it revived my old dislike of ret-cons.
/Andy Rooney mode off
Frankly, it's a lazy way out. If you want to continue a story, use your imagination and come up with one. Don't just say something didn't happen because you have a new story that you want to tell but there is this little detail from the past that blows a huge hole in your story.
One example that jumps out at me is about one of my favorite games when I was in high school: Myst. Myst was a first person puzzle game that came out in 1993. The storyline was that a stranger had come across a book called Myst and when he opened it, he was transported to an island in a completely different world. As the game evolves, the player learns that two brothers, Sirrus and Achenar, have been trapped in books and need to have the pages of these books returned from other worlds to free them. However, as the player does this, he learns that both men are very dangerous. In the end, the player learns that they were caught in traps set by their father, Atrus, as they moved to get rid of him so that they could control everything themselves. In winning the game, the player frees Atrus from his own prison and he subsequently destroys the books that his sons were trapped in (presumably killing them).
This theme was continued in the sequel Riven. In that game, the player goes on a quest on behalf of Atrus to capture his father, Ghen, in a prison book and then free Atrus' wife Catherine.
The third game, Myst III: Exile, deals with the earlier actions of Sirrus and Achenar and their effects on a man named Saavedro, who had tried to stop them. It doesn't mention or use prison books.
Then comes the fourth game, Myst IV: Revelation. Apparently the game designers had been grousing for a few years that prison books didn't actually exist (despite creating two games where they were central plot points) and finally implemented this thought. In the fourth game, it is revealed that Sirrus and Achenar were not caught in prison books but in prison ages (small worlds that didn't have any linking book out of them). The storyline then follows the effects of Atrus, Catherine, and their daughter Yeesha of their attepts to contact the brothers and their possible release if they had reformed. The storyline is somewhat weak in this game and the game designers ret-con of the prison books throws everything out of whack.
If there was nothing special about the books that trapped the brothers in the first game and they were just links to other worlds without exits, then there is not much point to the game. There would have been no need to collect pages from other worlds because if pages were missing from the books, they wouldn't have worked (this is how they trapped their father in the world called D'ni). Likewise, how would the player have known anything as communication with the brother in their books is a key element in how the player learns both what to do and who to trust in the end.
The idea that prison books don't exist also blows Riven completely out of the water as well. The whole point of the story is to capture Ghen. There is a key point in the game where Ghen is close to falling into the trap but he has the player go into the trap first. This idea fits with his personality as developed in the game. When the prison book concept is used, it works well because the prison can only hold one person. If you go in, you're trapped until Ghen uses the book. Then he is trapped and you are set free. But if the concept of prison ages is used (as discussed in the context of Myst IV), the game is a dead end. The player would go to the prison age while Ghen follows. Both would be trapped (Ghen would probably kill the player in a fit of rage) and Catherine would still be imprisoned. With the disappearance of Ghen, it is likely that Ghen's followers would assume that the rebels had killed him and kill Catherine in retaliation. Not exactly a good ending to a game.
This is perhaps an extreme reaction but it was something I recently read about and it revived my old dislike of ret-cons.
/Andy Rooney mode off
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
On to South Carolina
To no one's surprise, Mr. Romney won New Hampshire easily. With 95% of the vote in, the numbers are waffling between 39 and 40% of the vote (probably depends on the rounding of the decimal). Mr. Paul came in second (which surprised me a little bit) at 23% and despite his last minute surge, Mr. Huntsman finished a disappointing third with 17% of the vote. Newt and Mr. Santorum are dueling it out for fourth place with each currently at 9% (Newt seems to have the lead by a couple hundred votes). Mr. Perry opted not to campaign in New Hampshire and his 1% sixth place finish reflects that.
Despite his lower than desired third place showing, Mr. Huntsman has vowed to soldier on. He is not expected to do much in South Carolina and he is probably hoping to capture some key part of the Romney vote in Florida. I suspect monetary reality will sink in after that.
Now it's on to South Carolina on Saturday, January 21. South Carolina will probably winnow at least one more candidate out (probably Mr. Perry unless something significant happens). January finishes out with Florida (1/31). Who knows how many will be left standing after Florida. My initial guess is that will be down to three: Mr. Romney, Mr. Paul, and some not-Romney.
The itinerary for the rest of the primaries is as follows:
February 4 (Saturday) - Nevada Caucus
February 4-11 - Maine Caucus
February 7 (Tuesday) - Colorado, Minnesota, Non-binding Missouri Primary
February 28 (Tuesday) - Arizona, Michigan
March 3 (Saturday) - Washington
March 6 (Super Tuesday) - Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming
March 10 (Saturday) - Kansas
March 13 (Tuesday) - Alabama, Hawaii, Mississippi
March 17 (Saturday) - Missouri Caucus
March 20 (Tuesday) - Illinois
March 24 (Saturday) - Louisiana
April 3 (Tuesday) - Maryland, Washington DC, Wisconsin
April 24 (Tuesday) - Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island
May 8 (Tuesday) - Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia
May 15 (Tuesday) - Nebraska, Oregon
May 22 (Tuesday) - Arkansas, Kentucky
June 5 (Tuesday) - California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota
June 26 (Tuesday) - Utah
Things will continue to look up for Mr. Romney through February. He will probably win Nevada, Maine, and Michigan. Minnesota also will probably turn for Mr. Romney although it may be closer there. Colorado could just be odd and go for Mr. Paul so who knows there. Arizona I don't have a clue yet.
My gut feeling at this moment is that the not-Romney forces will eventually consolidate around Santorum. I think Mr. Perry will fall out after South Carolina and Newt is now solely committed to running a seek and destroy mission against Mr. Romney. It may damage Mr. Romney but it will probably drive away Newt's support as well. With few options, they either rally behind Mr. Romney despite Newt's attacks or they rally behind Mr. Santorum as the last option. That's just my gut feeling. We'll see how long all this lasts.
Despite his lower than desired third place showing, Mr. Huntsman has vowed to soldier on. He is not expected to do much in South Carolina and he is probably hoping to capture some key part of the Romney vote in Florida. I suspect monetary reality will sink in after that.
Now it's on to South Carolina on Saturday, January 21. South Carolina will probably winnow at least one more candidate out (probably Mr. Perry unless something significant happens). January finishes out with Florida (1/31). Who knows how many will be left standing after Florida. My initial guess is that will be down to three: Mr. Romney, Mr. Paul, and some not-Romney.
The itinerary for the rest of the primaries is as follows:
February 4 (Saturday) - Nevada Caucus
February 4-11 - Maine Caucus
February 7 (Tuesday) - Colorado, Minnesota, Non-binding Missouri Primary
February 28 (Tuesday) - Arizona, Michigan
March 3 (Saturday) - Washington
March 6 (Super Tuesday) - Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming
March 10 (Saturday) - Kansas
March 13 (Tuesday) - Alabama, Hawaii, Mississippi
March 17 (Saturday) - Missouri Caucus
March 20 (Tuesday) - Illinois
March 24 (Saturday) - Louisiana
April 3 (Tuesday) - Maryland, Washington DC, Wisconsin
April 24 (Tuesday) - Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island
May 8 (Tuesday) - Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia
May 15 (Tuesday) - Nebraska, Oregon
May 22 (Tuesday) - Arkansas, Kentucky
June 5 (Tuesday) - California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota
June 26 (Tuesday) - Utah
Things will continue to look up for Mr. Romney through February. He will probably win Nevada, Maine, and Michigan. Minnesota also will probably turn for Mr. Romney although it may be closer there. Colorado could just be odd and go for Mr. Paul so who knows there. Arizona I don't have a clue yet.
My gut feeling at this moment is that the not-Romney forces will eventually consolidate around Santorum. I think Mr. Perry will fall out after South Carolina and Newt is now solely committed to running a seek and destroy mission against Mr. Romney. It may damage Mr. Romney but it will probably drive away Newt's support as well. With few options, they either rally behind Mr. Romney despite Newt's attacks or they rally behind Mr. Santorum as the last option. That's just my gut feeling. We'll see how long all this lasts.
Tuesday, January 10, 2012
Monday, January 09, 2012
New Hampshire Predictions
Tomorrow is the first primary in New Hampshire. In many ways, it'll be a snoozer. Mitt Romney has been polling way ahead of all the other candidates for months and the only questions is how much he'll win by. Generally the thought is that if he wins less than 40% of the vote, it'll be a disappointment for him.
The networks will probably declare Mr. Romney the winner as soon as the polls close and then go into an overly animated discussion about who will win second place. Uncle Ron is currently holding that position as he's been pretty stable in the high teens (even flirting with 20% in one poll). Jon Huntsman has been surging lately as his total commitment to New Hampshire starts to pay off. He has an outside chance to overtake Uncle Ron and claim the #2 spot for himself. If he fails, he may not last much longer. Mr. Huntsman has ignored South Carolina and he had hoped to turn a strong showing in New Hampshire into a chance to keep enough money flowing in to compete in Florida. However, if he finishes in third (or worse), he will probably see his money dry up just as Ms. Bachmann's did.
Mr. Gingrich and Mr. Santorum are fighting it out for fourth place. This actually matters to some degree. If Mr. Santorum beats out Newt by any significant margin, it will solidify his position as the "conservative option". He would then probably start to peel more of Newt's supporters away in South Carolina and maybe even a couple of the Perry diehards (Mr. Perry is pulling 1% in New Hampshire and only 5% in South Carolina). Conversely, if Newt finishes ahead of Mr. Santorum, it could feed into the impression that Mr. Santorum lucked into his Iowa tie and his supporters will bleed back to Mr. Gingrich.
The one thing that is the real take away in all of this is that if any one candidate (outside of Ron Paul) can keep some money flowing in, there will a consistent drum beat of challenging Mr. Romney through the cycle. That candidate may suffer for it, but the primary voters appear to still not like Mr. Romney very much (even if they don't like anyone else either) and will keep at least one person around as long as that person is willing to stay around.
The networks will probably declare Mr. Romney the winner as soon as the polls close and then go into an overly animated discussion about who will win second place. Uncle Ron is currently holding that position as he's been pretty stable in the high teens (even flirting with 20% in one poll). Jon Huntsman has been surging lately as his total commitment to New Hampshire starts to pay off. He has an outside chance to overtake Uncle Ron and claim the #2 spot for himself. If he fails, he may not last much longer. Mr. Huntsman has ignored South Carolina and he had hoped to turn a strong showing in New Hampshire into a chance to keep enough money flowing in to compete in Florida. However, if he finishes in third (or worse), he will probably see his money dry up just as Ms. Bachmann's did.
Mr. Gingrich and Mr. Santorum are fighting it out for fourth place. This actually matters to some degree. If Mr. Santorum beats out Newt by any significant margin, it will solidify his position as the "conservative option". He would then probably start to peel more of Newt's supporters away in South Carolina and maybe even a couple of the Perry diehards (Mr. Perry is pulling 1% in New Hampshire and only 5% in South Carolina). Conversely, if Newt finishes ahead of Mr. Santorum, it could feed into the impression that Mr. Santorum lucked into his Iowa tie and his supporters will bleed back to Mr. Gingrich.
The one thing that is the real take away in all of this is that if any one candidate (outside of Ron Paul) can keep some money flowing in, there will a consistent drum beat of challenging Mr. Romney through the cycle. That candidate may suffer for it, but the primary voters appear to still not like Mr. Romney very much (even if they don't like anyone else either) and will keep at least one person around as long as that person is willing to stay around.
Friday, January 06, 2012
NFL First Round Predictions
Tomorrow kicks off the first round of the football playoffs. Some games will probably be stinkers while others are pretty good. Here's my own take.
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans - I'm very torn here. The Bengals have been over performing all season in my opinion and taking advantage of some very good luck for them (and bad luck for the other teams). They are in the same position they were back in Week 14, only this time the game is at Houston. The Bengals should have won the Week 14 contest (which would have made all the Week 17 tension moot) but allowed Houston to come back and win (the Texans didn't win again after that). Houston's running game will give the Bengals fits but I'm going to give the Bengals one more chance and say they edge Houston just because of how badly the Texans limped into play-offs and because Yates will make some mistakes.
Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints - This game could set records for scoring. What started out as a decent defense has completely dissolved for the Lions. Fortunately for them, their offense has managed to compensate. But no one but the Green Bay Packers (and maybe the New England Patriots) can keep pace with the Saints in terms of scoring. I favor New Orleans in a total shootout that will bury any knowledge of of the New Hampshire Republican debate going on at the same time.
Atlanta Falcons at NY Giants - Both of these teams have had real up and downs this year. Atlanta started bad but has been on a good streak lately. The Giants meanwhile can't decide week to week whether they are going to come and play or not. If the good Giants show up, they can keep pace with the Falcons and use the home field cold to beat them. But if the bad Giants show up, the Falcons will win in a laugher. I think the Giants will forget to show up until the second half and the Falcons will hold on and win the game.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos - I would love to think that there is some way that Denver will win this game. I loathe the Steelers and they've got enough injuries that they are vulnerable. But Denver's defense has gone away and after 9 weeks, teams have finally figured out how to slow down Tim Tebow. I think the game is close as the Steelers won't score many points, but I think their defense shuts down even a whiff of offense from the Broncos and win a close one.
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans - I'm very torn here. The Bengals have been over performing all season in my opinion and taking advantage of some very good luck for them (and bad luck for the other teams). They are in the same position they were back in Week 14, only this time the game is at Houston. The Bengals should have won the Week 14 contest (which would have made all the Week 17 tension moot) but allowed Houston to come back and win (the Texans didn't win again after that). Houston's running game will give the Bengals fits but I'm going to give the Bengals one more chance and say they edge Houston just because of how badly the Texans limped into play-offs and because Yates will make some mistakes.
Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints - This game could set records for scoring. What started out as a decent defense has completely dissolved for the Lions. Fortunately for them, their offense has managed to compensate. But no one but the Green Bay Packers (and maybe the New England Patriots) can keep pace with the Saints in terms of scoring. I favor New Orleans in a total shootout that will bury any knowledge of of the New Hampshire Republican debate going on at the same time.
Atlanta Falcons at NY Giants - Both of these teams have had real up and downs this year. Atlanta started bad but has been on a good streak lately. The Giants meanwhile can't decide week to week whether they are going to come and play or not. If the good Giants show up, they can keep pace with the Falcons and use the home field cold to beat them. But if the bad Giants show up, the Falcons will win in a laugher. I think the Giants will forget to show up until the second half and the Falcons will hold on and win the game.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos - I would love to think that there is some way that Denver will win this game. I loathe the Steelers and they've got enough injuries that they are vulnerable. But Denver's defense has gone away and after 9 weeks, teams have finally figured out how to slow down Tim Tebow. I think the game is close as the Steelers won't score many points, but I think their defense shuts down even a whiff of offense from the Broncos and win a close one.
Real Unemployment
Back in December, I ranted about the tricks the Bureau of Labor Statistics used to show a huge drop in unemployment. Today's drop wasn't as big and it was accompanied by some good news (addition of 200,000 jobs) but it got me wondering enough to put together a true apples to apples comparison.
The economy began to go south in 2008 and about September or October (remember McCain's campaign suspension) is when the tipping point began. The labor participation rate had been holding at about 66% for the better part of two years. Starting in October 2008, the unemployment rate began to jack up significantly and the labor participation rate also began to go down. I decided to chart what the U3 unemployment rate would be if the labor participation rate was held constant (no magicking of jobs away because people stopped looking). I also started in January 2009 just so I could keep it simple over a solid three years. The labor participation rate in January 2009 was 65.7% (with a U3 unemployment rate of 7.8) and that was my baseline. At the moment it's 64.0% (but with a U3 unemployment rate of 8.5), which represents a base loss of about 2.5 million jobs.
Holding everything equal, unemployment should be at 10.9%. Now, some flux is to be expected with people retiring or choosing to leave the workforce for other reasons. However, much of that should be offset by new workers coming in so keeping a labor participation rate constant or close to constant is not unreasonable.
This is why I hate statistics and the inferences people choose to pull from them.
The economy began to go south in 2008 and about September or October (remember McCain's campaign suspension) is when the tipping point began. The labor participation rate had been holding at about 66% for the better part of two years. Starting in October 2008, the unemployment rate began to jack up significantly and the labor participation rate also began to go down. I decided to chart what the U3 unemployment rate would be if the labor participation rate was held constant (no magicking of jobs away because people stopped looking). I also started in January 2009 just so I could keep it simple over a solid three years. The labor participation rate in January 2009 was 65.7% (with a U3 unemployment rate of 7.8) and that was my baseline. At the moment it's 64.0% (but with a U3 unemployment rate of 8.5), which represents a base loss of about 2.5 million jobs.
Holding everything equal, unemployment should be at 10.9%. Now, some flux is to be expected with people retiring or choosing to leave the workforce for other reasons. However, much of that should be offset by new workers coming in so keeping a labor participation rate constant or close to constant is not unreasonable.
This is why I hate statistics and the inferences people choose to pull from them.
Wednesday, January 04, 2012
Romney Wins Iowa (Technically)
Mitt Romney has won the Iowa Caucuses by 8 votes over Rick Santorum, giving them each 25% of the vote. Crazy Uncle Ron finished 4 points back at 21%. Newt came in fourth with 13% and Rick Perry notched fifth at 10% (although Perry won two counties in the southwest section of the state). Michele Bachmann flamed out at 5% while Jon Huntsman (who skipped campaigning in the state) notched 1%.
The first big questions come from those who did not do so well. Michele Bachmann has stated that she will push on despite her very poor showing. She can say that, but her money will completely dry up now. She is certainly free to leave her name on the ballots but she is now effectively done.
Rick Perry has announced that he will be reevaluating things down in Texas. He has been unable to climb above 10% in the polls of either South Carolina or Florida and while he has a reasonable amount of money left, his funds may start to dry up as well.
The big question is how fast the not-Romney forces consolidate. Mr. Romney has done quite well to maintain his steady 25%, but he has never had any real fluctuations above that. He carries an air of inevitability but one that carries a stink of dislike. There will be a strong push to cast off some of the lesser candidates and to get those votes to unite into a single not-Romney candidate. Whether that is Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich remains to be seen.
As an aside, I'm not completely dismissing Ron Paul, who obviously has passionate supporters. But he also has some of the highest negatives of any candidate. Also, if you look at the breakdown of those who voted for him, they were mostly independent and very young. Quite a number of these folks will be both unable and unwilling to vote in later primaries so it is likely that Mr. Paul's vote percentage will steadily decline as the contest continues. In states with a closed primary (such as Ohio) I would suspect that Mr. Paul will fare rather poorly.
Now it's on to New Hampshire. That Mr. Romney is going to win is a given. The question is by how much. With expectations running this high, anything less than 40% will probably be seen as a disappointment. Mr. Huntsman will do well as he has been glad handling the New Hampshire folks almost as much as Mr. Santorum was the Iowans. Probably the real question is who challenges Ron Paul for third place.
*UPDATE*
And what I predicted on Sept. 13 has now come to pass.
We're now down to six, with it possibly being five by the end of the week.
The first big questions come from those who did not do so well. Michele Bachmann has stated that she will push on despite her very poor showing. She can say that, but her money will completely dry up now. She is certainly free to leave her name on the ballots but she is now effectively done.
Rick Perry has announced that he will be reevaluating things down in Texas. He has been unable to climb above 10% in the polls of either South Carolina or Florida and while he has a reasonable amount of money left, his funds may start to dry up as well.
The big question is how fast the not-Romney forces consolidate. Mr. Romney has done quite well to maintain his steady 25%, but he has never had any real fluctuations above that. He carries an air of inevitability but one that carries a stink of dislike. There will be a strong push to cast off some of the lesser candidates and to get those votes to unite into a single not-Romney candidate. Whether that is Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich remains to be seen.
As an aside, I'm not completely dismissing Ron Paul, who obviously has passionate supporters. But he also has some of the highest negatives of any candidate. Also, if you look at the breakdown of those who voted for him, they were mostly independent and very young. Quite a number of these folks will be both unable and unwilling to vote in later primaries so it is likely that Mr. Paul's vote percentage will steadily decline as the contest continues. In states with a closed primary (such as Ohio) I would suspect that Mr. Paul will fare rather poorly.
Now it's on to New Hampshire. That Mr. Romney is going to win is a given. The question is by how much. With expectations running this high, anything less than 40% will probably be seen as a disappointment. Mr. Huntsman will do well as he has been glad handling the New Hampshire folks almost as much as Mr. Santorum was the Iowans. Probably the real question is who challenges Ron Paul for third place.
*UPDATE*
And what I predicted on Sept. 13 has now come to pass.
We're now down to six, with it possibly being five by the end of the week.
Tuesday, January 03, 2012
Minor Political Events
About 50% of the precincts in and Santorum leads Romney by about 300 votes. Each is getting about 24% of the total.
Meanwhile, bad news for Obama. I'm not sure what this Mexican warlock's track record is from 2008.
Meanwhile, bad news for Obama. I'm not sure what this Mexican warlock's track record is from 2008.
Monday, January 02, 2012
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