Romney Wins Iowa (Technically)

Mitt Romney has won the Iowa Caucuses by 8 votes over Rick Santorum, giving them each 25% of the vote. Crazy Uncle Ron finished 4 points back at 21%. Newt came in fourth with 13% and Rick Perry notched fifth at 10% (although Perry won two counties in the southwest section of the state). Michele Bachmann flamed out at 5% while Jon Huntsman (who skipped campaigning in the state) notched 1%.


The first big questions come from those who did not do so well. Michele Bachmann has stated that she will push on despite her very poor showing. She can say that, but her money will completely dry up now. She is certainly free to leave her name on the ballots but she is now effectively done.

Rick Perry has announced that he will be reevaluating things down in Texas. He has been unable to climb above 10% in the polls of either South Carolina or Florida and while he has a reasonable amount of money left, his funds may start to dry up as well.

The big question is how fast the not-Romney forces consolidate. Mr. Romney has done quite well to maintain his steady 25%, but he has never had any real fluctuations above that. He carries an air of inevitability but one that carries a stink of dislike. There will be a strong push to cast off some of the lesser candidates and to get those votes to unite into a single not-Romney candidate. Whether that is Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich remains to be seen.

As an aside, I'm not completely dismissing Ron Paul, who obviously has passionate supporters. But he also has some of the highest negatives of any candidate. Also, if you look at the breakdown of those who voted for him, they were mostly independent and very young. Quite a number of these folks will be both unable and unwilling to vote in later primaries so it is likely that Mr. Paul's vote percentage will steadily decline as the contest continues. In states with a closed primary (such as Ohio) I would suspect that Mr. Paul will fare rather poorly.

Now it's on to New Hampshire. That Mr. Romney is going to win is a given. The question is by how much. With expectations running this high, anything less than 40% will probably be seen as a disappointment. Mr. Huntsman will do well as he has been glad handling the New Hampshire folks almost as much as Mr. Santorum was the Iowans. Probably the real question is who challenges Ron Paul for third place.

*UPDATE*

And what I predicted on Sept. 13 has now come to pass.

We're now down to six, with it possibly being five by the end of the week.