On to South Carolina

To no one's surprise, Mr. Romney won New Hampshire easily. With 95% of the vote in, the numbers are waffling between 39 and 40% of the vote (probably depends on the rounding of the decimal). Mr. Paul came in second (which surprised me a little bit) at 23% and despite his last minute surge, Mr. Huntsman finished a disappointing third with 17% of the vote. Newt and Mr. Santorum are dueling it out for fourth place with each currently at 9% (Newt seems to have the lead by a couple hundred votes). Mr. Perry opted not to campaign in New Hampshire and his 1% sixth place finish reflects that.


Despite his lower than desired third place showing, Mr. Huntsman has vowed to soldier on. He is not expected to do much in South Carolina and he is probably hoping to capture some key part of the Romney vote in Florida. I suspect monetary reality will sink in after that.

Now it's on to South Carolina on Saturday, January 21. South Carolina will probably winnow at least one more candidate out (probably Mr. Perry unless something significant happens). January finishes out with Florida (1/31). Who knows how many will be left standing after Florida. My initial guess is that will be down to three: Mr. Romney, Mr. Paul, and some not-Romney.

The itinerary for the rest of the primaries is as follows:
February 4 (Saturday) - Nevada Caucus
February 4-11 - Maine Caucus
February 7 (Tuesday) - Colorado, Minnesota, Non-binding Missouri Primary
February 28 (Tuesday) - Arizona, Michigan
March 3 (Saturday) - Washington
March 6 (Super Tuesday) - Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming
March 10 (Saturday) - Kansas
March 13 (Tuesday) - Alabama, Hawaii, Mississippi
March 17 (Saturday) - Missouri Caucus
March 20 (Tuesday) - Illinois
March 24 (Saturday) - Louisiana
April 3 (Tuesday) - Maryland, Washington DC, Wisconsin
April 24 (Tuesday) - Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island
May 8 (Tuesday) - Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia
May 15 (Tuesday) - Nebraska, Oregon
May 22 (Tuesday) - Arkansas, Kentucky
June 5 (Tuesday) - California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota
June 26 (Tuesday) - Utah

Things will continue to look up for Mr. Romney through February. He will probably win Nevada, Maine, and Michigan. Minnesota also will probably turn for Mr. Romney although it may be closer there. Colorado could just be odd and go for Mr. Paul so who knows there. Arizona I don't have a clue yet.

My gut feeling at this moment is that the not-Romney forces will eventually consolidate around Santorum. I think Mr. Perry will fall out after South Carolina and Newt is now solely committed to running a seek and destroy mission against Mr. Romney. It may damage Mr. Romney but it will probably drive away Newt's support as well. With few options, they either rally behind Mr. Romney despite Newt's attacks or they rally behind Mr. Santorum as the last option. That's just my gut feeling. We'll see how long all this lasts.