Santorum Sweep

In a bit of a surprise, Rick Santorum swept the three contests last night. Missouri was not a surprise. Mr. Santorum was the only one that bothered to visit the state and Mr. Gingrich had not made the ballot, rendering it a genuine Romney vs. not-Romney race.


Minnesota was also not much of a surprise as polling had Mr. Santorum up in the state (33-24 over Mr. Romney). However his margin was a bit of a surprise (45-27-17-11 as of now) as well as who came in second: Ron Paul. I know caucuses can get skewed but a margin that dramatic is slightly eyebrow raising.

But the big surprise came in Colorado. Mr. Romney was leading in the polls by 10 (37-27) and now it appears that he has lost by 5. Interestingly, the percentage of Romney support stayed about the same (37 vs. 35) but Mr. Santorum surged from 27 points to 40 points. This suggests he took many of the undecideds as well as poaching from other candidates. Again though, it is a caucus and weird things happen at caucuses. Weather may also have been a factor as the heavy snow around Denver may have kept a number of more tepid Romney voters from going to the caucuses, giving Mr. Santorum's wins in the outer counties more weight.

The overall result tonight doesn't mean much. The base estimates from Colorado are that Mr. Santorum and Mr. Romney will essentially split the delegates (13-12) with the rest being passed out to Newt (4) and Uncle Ron (4). The same is done in Minnesota, giving Mr. Santorum 17 delegates to Uncle Ron's 10, with 6 to Mr. Romney and 4 to Newt. Missouri, of course, is not giving out anything until March.

A three state sweep however will give a boost to Mr. Santorum's fundraising and set up some interesting commentary leading up to the primaries in Michigan and Arizona (Maine does come up next but that's a two man race between Mr. Romney and Uncle Ron and those delegates aren't selected until May as well). Even though history has been on his side, Mr. Romney may start to see some hits in the polls in Michigan. I'm not sure about Arizona at the moment, although I know Mr. Romney is currently ahead there.

Probably the biggest question of the night won't be answered until Super Tuesday. Although he finished badly, I see no reason for Newt to drop out until at least after Super Tuesday. Newt is going to win Georgia as it is his home state. Newt and Mr. Santorum failed to get enough signatures to appear on the Virginia ballot so it is likely that Mr. Romney will easily take Virginia. That leaves Ohio and Tennessee as the really big prizes on Super Tuesday. If Mr. Santorum wins Ohio and Tennessee (or at least finishes better than Newt in those states) it essentially destroys Newt's argument of viability, even as a "Southern Candidate." It is possible that Newt might retire to allow a single candidate to become the focus of the "Not-Romney" support.

Of course, Mr. Santorum could flame out in the next debate and Newt could rise from the ashes a third time. We shall see.