Narratives

Much hooping and hollering has been going on lately over Mr. Santorum's wins on Tuesday (despite not actually earning any delegates out of it). The biggest reason for this is the fact that there's not going to be any story to fill the media vacuum for a couple of weeks. Yes, we have the Maine caucuses on Saturday, but Maine is one small state and is expected to be only a contest between Mr. Romney and Uncle Ron.

Regardless of what happens in Maine, there is a two-week lull where nothing happens except campaigning and fundraising until we get to the debate in Phoenix on Feb. 22. By that point, I'm sure the talking heads will be so starved for something new that they will take anything they can get out of the debate and make hay out of it. But until that time, the void will be filled with endless chatter of how Mr. Romney is not quite so inevitible now or whether Newt's southern firewall will hold, et cetera.

Speaking of Newt's Southern firewall, that raises an interesting question about how long he may choose to stay in the race. I think it unlikely that Newt will do well in Michigan, Arizona, or Washington so that will leave him desperate for any kind of win come Super Tuesday. There are three Southern states voting on Super Tuesday: Georgia, Virginia, and Tennessee.

Unfortunately, both Newt and Mr. Santorum made errors in their filing and will not be on the ballot in Virginia. I don't know if Virginia has a write-in policy but it seems likely that this kind of mistake will allow Mr. Romney to make nearly a clean sweep of the state.

Georgia, being Newt's home state, will go heavily for him so it's effects will be rather diminished (even though it gives the most delegates of any state on Super Tuesday (76). That leaves Tennessee (and maybe Ohio) to help Newt keep the narrative alive that he is still a viable candidate. If Newt loses Tennessee, especially if it's to Mr. Santorum, then he will probably receive even more pressure to drop out and make it a two-man race.

Of course, anything could happen. It could be revealed in the news tomorrow that Mr. Santorum serves barbecued puppies for Sunday dinner every week and that would both change the narrative and give Newt a third riser from the ashes. It is still early and I wouldn't want to denigrate any one's chances (except Uncle Ron who has no chance).