Senate Races 2010

With all the attention paid to the Massachusetts special election, I thought it would be interesting to list the Senate seats that are being fought over in November. Most pundits I've read state that it would an extremely good day if the Republicans picked up 8+ seats (essentially implying that it is impossible for the Senate to switch sides this year).

As of right now, there are 10 seats that will have no incumbent. Those seats are:

CT (D)
DE (D) - Special election (seat up again in 2014)
FL (R)
KS (R)
KY (R)
IL (D)
MO (R)
NH (R)
ND (D)
OH (R)

The Connecticut seat was in danger until Chris Dodd retired. Now this seat considered relatively safe for Democrats. Should the anti-incumbency feeling hold, Republicans have a good shot winning 7 of these seats with relative ease and the Delaware and Illinois seats requiring more of a fight.

The 26 seats up this year that have the incumbent vying for that seat are:

AL (R)
AK (R)
AR (D)
AZ (R)
CA (D)
CO (D)
GA (R)
HI (D)
ID (R)
IN (D)
IA (R)
LA (R)
MD (D)
NV (D)
NY (D)
NY (D) - Special election (seat up again in 2012; currently held by Kirsten Gillibrand)
NC (R)
OK (R)
OR (D)
PA (D)
SC (R)
SD (R)
UT (R)
VT (D)
WA (D)
WI (D)

On the Republican side it's already known that there will be serious primary challenges in Arizona (John McCain) and Iowa (Chuck Grassley), but of the states listed, the Democrat's best shot at taking an Republican seat would probably be Iowa. All other states are pretty red.

On the Democrat side, Nevada has already been declared essentially lost and both Arkansas and Colorado are considered uphill battles. It is also no secret that the Republicans intend to strongly pursue IN (Evan Bayh) and PA (Arlen Spector). Of course, Mr. Spector may lose his primary fight and that will change the whole picture in PA.

Of course, much can change in 10.5 months and there may be unexpected loses on either side. But looking at the state of play in January, a 12 seat switch is theoretically possible. Unlikely, but possible. The fallout from the MA special election could put a whole new spin on things as well. We shall see.