Curiousity in MA

On January 19, Massachusetts will hold a special election to replace the late Ted Kennedy. The two principle candidates are Martha Coakley (D) and Scott Brown (R). Normally you would expect Ms. Coakley to coast to an easy victory (and she still might), but things have been a bit unsettled in the Bay State.

Current polling of likely voters is showing Ms. Coakley up only by 9 points (50-41) . This gets even scarier for Ms. Coakley when you factor in that special elections always have much lower turnout and that only two months ago, she was up by 31. Governor Deval Patrick (D) is currently suffering from high unpopularity and there has been only tepid support for Mr. Obama's legislative agenda (still better than most of the country).

A combination of these factors may drive Democratic turnout even lower than normal in a special election (especially if the weather stays bad). All of this could give Mr. Brown a realistic chance of winning the seat.

Now, do I really think that Mr. Brown will win? No. But it could end up being a much closer race than the talking heads feel it should be. It might scare a few more Blue Dogs about their reelection chances. Or it could have no effect at all. For now, we shall just watch and wait.