Presidential Curse

I tried to publish this entry once before but blogger seems to have eaten it. I guess that's why one should save their stuff before doing a full publish. Well, live and learn.

Earlier today we were discussing presidential politics and we got sidetracked by the presidential curse story. I'm sure you've all heard it before. During the Indian Wars of the 1820's and 30's, the Native American warrior Tecumseh proclaimed a curse, saying that every American president who was elected in a year ending in 0 would die in office. His curse has had a remarkable degree of accuracy:

1840 - William Henry Harrison - died 30 days after taking office.

1860 - Abraham Lincoln - assassinated during his second term.

1880 - James Garfield - shot but in fact died from complications due to his treatment, see more below.

1900 - William McKinley - assassinated by a radical anarchist.

1920 - Warren G Harding - died of a heart attack in 1923.

1940 - Franklin Roosevelt - died of a cerebral hemorrhage early in his 4th term, although he became eligible for the curse by his 3rd term.

1960 - John F Kennedy - assassinated in Dallas.

1980 - Ronald Reagan - shot early in his first term but survived mostly due to modern medicine and a little luck. Reagan almost died although this fact was not released to the public until much later.

Another interesting thing about the curse is the 100 year parallels:

1840, 1940 - Both presidents die due to illness shortly after beginning their term. FDR waited for the next 4 year term though.

1860, 1960 - Both presidents are assassinated while enjoying high popularity after steering the country though a significant crisis.

1880, 1980 - Both presidents are shot but do not die from their wounds. Reagan survived completely. Garfield died, but not from the bullet. The bullet passed through his body and lodged in a cyst near his spine. It is widely believed that he would have survived the incident had it not been for his "treatment." Many of the doctors probed the entry wound with unsterilized fingers and instruments, even managing to puncture Garfield's liver during an examination. Garfield eventually died of a heart attack brought on by infection 80 days after being shot.

Given these parallels, George W Bush might want to be a little bit careful. Granted, John Kerry could defeat him in 2004 and render the curse moot, but if he doesn't, Bush is still a prime target. Already there are some unsettling similarities between Bush and McKinley. McKinley was elected president as a two term governor of one of the largest and most powerful states in the Union. He also came to power in the waning days of a significant economic downturn. After being elected, McKinley cozied up to major industrialist and was even derided as being a "little boy" who was led around by his "nurse", a representative of the corporate trust. Later, he went to war in a perceived attack on American soldiers when the USS Maine exploded off Cuba. His subsequent annexation of Cuba, Guam, and the Philippines earned him the name of imperialist by his reelection opponent (William Jennings Bryan). McKinley was reelected, but shortly into his second term, he was assassinated by a member of a radical movement, working to topple Western style governments.

George W Bush has said that he tries to model himself in the manner of Teddy Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan. If he were told that he was more closely following the path of William McKinley, I wonder how interested he would be in seeking reelection.