Like everyone else, I was quite surprised to learn on Monday that Pope Benedict XVI was going to resign. He was getting old enough that everyone just expected him to die in office like everyone else.
Naturally that has set off a flurry of speculation about his successor. Quite a number of men are considered in the running and Paddy Power has set odds on just about every member of the College of Cardinals. However, because of the so-called Prophecy of St. Malachy, interest has focused predominently on two men to suceed as Peter the Roman:
The first is Cardinal Tarcisio Pietro Evasio Bertone. He is currently the Vatican Secretary of State and seen as Pope Benedict's right hand man. He also happens to be from the Romano region of Italy, giving him an easy identification as a possible Peter the Roman. However, there are a few things going against him.
First is his age. He just turned 78 and the Vatican has a bit of a habit of replacing a long pope with a short one and a short one with a long one. If Cardinal Bertone were elected, his reign would look to be as short or possibly shorter than Benedict's.
Second, Cardinal Bertone is strongly tied to the policies of Pope Benedict and his elevation would be seen as a continuation of those policies. However, those policies are not particularly popular with the cardinals and much of the leity right now.
Third, Cardinal Bertone has been tied to several controversies in the past few years and his elevation would only increase these levels.
The second man that is getting a lot of Peter the Roman buzz is the current betting favorite, Cardinal Peter Turkson. After the world-wide work that Pope John Paul II did, many in the Catholic Church have expected a non-European pope. If it weren't for his age, Cardinal Francis Arinze would probably have the inside track, but he just turned 80 and I suspect that the Vatican is looking for a man a bit younger than Benedict was when he took office.
Cardinal Turkson fits the bill much better. He is only 64 and seen as a strong leader from Africa. He also has the distict advantage that although he is from Ghana and oversees Churches in that region of Africa, he has held Vatcian office for several years and is well aquainted with Vatican politics. He has been stationed in Rome long enough that people in Ghana refer to him as Peter the Roman as a badge of honor.
There is one other point that Cardinal Turkson fits while others do not: he is dark skinned. I've not been able to find a credible source, but there seems to be a belief that the last pope will have dark skin (the notations usually read "black pope"). This tidbit is not in St. Malachy's prophecy of Peter the Roman when read, but it is credited to him. I suspect that it may have come from a "reading in" of the prophecy rather than any specific wording. Early beliefs probably centered around this pope being evil and then evolved into his having dark skin.
We should find out next month anyway and then we can evaluate everything from there.
Friday, February 15, 2013
Thursday, February 14, 2013
Talk Like a Pirate
This is a kindergardner version of a drinking song. I dare you to listen to it once and not find yourself humming or singing part of it at some point later in the day.
Tuesday, February 05, 2013
Lonely Zombie
There has been an upsurge in Zombie related entertainment (The Walking Dead, World War Z) lately. Why I'm not sure, but monsters seem to go in cycles and vampires have been done in a bit by Twilight.
In that spirit, here's the Lonely Zombie song from the folks at HISHE. They did a shortened version of this song as an end tag on their Resident Evil parody and then expanded the song when it was shown to be so popular. The contrast between the nature of the song and the lyrics is very funny.
In that spirit, here's the Lonely Zombie song from the folks at HISHE. They did a shortened version of this song as an end tag on their Resident Evil parody and then expanded the song when it was shown to be so popular. The contrast between the nature of the song and the lyrics is very funny.
Monday, February 04, 2013
Post Super Bowl Thoughts
I would like to pat myself on the back for calling the Super Bowl winner two weeks ago, but I can't really take all the credit. A friend of mine pointed out that when the Ravens beat the Colt, he thought the Ravens had this air about them very much like the Super Bowl XL (2005-6) Steelers, including an incredible dumb luck win over the #1 seed (in 2006 it was the Colts) that should have gone the other way.
Still, it does feel good to be right and the game wasn't half bad either. The first half was entertaining but a little off-putting with the 49'ers failing to punch it in and turning the ball over on a couple of drives. Sports announcers always remind the viewers how no team has ever come back from a defict of more than 10 points to win the Super Bowl and that held up again.
I honestly think the game would have ended up being a total bust if it hadn't been for the power failure. That clearly gave the 49'ers time to rest and regather themselves. I actually missed the third quarter and Mrs. X and I opted to flip over to Downton Abbey about halfway through the power failure. So I didn't see San Francisco's grind back into contention. I rejoined it in time for the kickoff after Baltimore had kicked a field goal to go up 31-23. Much as expected, the Niners went right down the field and got another touchdown, but was not that surprised when the failed on the 2-point conversion.
I figured the next drive would be make or break and I wasn't far off. The Ravens did manage to get close enough for a field goal which did force the Niners to go for a touchdown. As they drove the field, I was honestly expecting San Francisco to score said touchdown and was actually wondering if they had left too much time on the clock as they looked as though they would score before the two-minute warning and Baltimore would only need a field goal to win or tie (echos of New England).
Then came four failures. I think the Niners should have run the ball at least one more time (perhaps on third down) as a means of softening the blitz and perhaps catching the Ravens by surprise. Then there was the controversial non-call on 4th down. The ball would have been near impossible to catch in-bounds so I don't think pass interference was even considered. Holding could have been called, but I think the official kept the flag in his pocket for three reasons.
First, the officials had been allowing a lot of close stuff go. There were several non-calls earlier in the game that often get called. But the officials seem to have made the decision to let things go unless things were blatently obvious.
Second, officials in the playoffs have been notoriously hesitant about throwing flags near the end of the game on critical plays unless it is just too obvious to ignore, especially if they are on some short pass in the end zone.
Third, and I think this is actually the most critical, as much as the defender was fighting and holding on to the reciever, the reciever was hand fighting and trying to push off the defender. Neither man was playing completely clean to where the fault of the other was blatently obvious.
San Francisco fans will grumble and complain but I saw nothing wrong with making a no-call there and nothing inconsistent with it either.
Now, on to the commercials. They were particularly unmemorable this year. Usually, one might say that they were either good or bad or there might be a debate about which ones they liked or didn't. I simply can't remember most of them as they made almost no impression on me.
The only one that comes to my mind that I remember and like was the M&M's "Anything For Love". One, I like M&Ms; two, I like that song; and three, it took us a second, but the primary actress there is the same actress who plays Santana on Glee. I've seen a fair amount of love for Dodge's "Farmer" ad, which I missed. However, most of the love for this ad seems to stem for people's love of Paul Harvey and you have to pay close attention to notice that it's an ad for a Dodge truck.
The consensus worst ad was the Go Daddy ad featuring the Supermodel and the Nerd. If left to simple devices, the ad might have been funny, however, the producers elected to amp up the audio on the kissing to levels I've not even heard in adult films. Even if the Nerd had magically transformed to a Calvin Klien model (which was Mrs. X's favorite ad), the audio would have sickened anyone watching. It was memorable but for all the wrong reasons.
So here's to the end of another football season. Now we'll wait two and a half months until the draft and then four months after that to the start of the 2013 season.
Still, it does feel good to be right and the game wasn't half bad either. The first half was entertaining but a little off-putting with the 49'ers failing to punch it in and turning the ball over on a couple of drives. Sports announcers always remind the viewers how no team has ever come back from a defict of more than 10 points to win the Super Bowl and that held up again.
I honestly think the game would have ended up being a total bust if it hadn't been for the power failure. That clearly gave the 49'ers time to rest and regather themselves. I actually missed the third quarter and Mrs. X and I opted to flip over to Downton Abbey about halfway through the power failure. So I didn't see San Francisco's grind back into contention. I rejoined it in time for the kickoff after Baltimore had kicked a field goal to go up 31-23. Much as expected, the Niners went right down the field and got another touchdown, but was not that surprised when the failed on the 2-point conversion.
I figured the next drive would be make or break and I wasn't far off. The Ravens did manage to get close enough for a field goal which did force the Niners to go for a touchdown. As they drove the field, I was honestly expecting San Francisco to score said touchdown and was actually wondering if they had left too much time on the clock as they looked as though they would score before the two-minute warning and Baltimore would only need a field goal to win or tie (echos of New England).
Then came four failures. I think the Niners should have run the ball at least one more time (perhaps on third down) as a means of softening the blitz and perhaps catching the Ravens by surprise. Then there was the controversial non-call on 4th down. The ball would have been near impossible to catch in-bounds so I don't think pass interference was even considered. Holding could have been called, but I think the official kept the flag in his pocket for three reasons.
First, the officials had been allowing a lot of close stuff go. There were several non-calls earlier in the game that often get called. But the officials seem to have made the decision to let things go unless things were blatently obvious.
Second, officials in the playoffs have been notoriously hesitant about throwing flags near the end of the game on critical plays unless it is just too obvious to ignore, especially if they are on some short pass in the end zone.
Third, and I think this is actually the most critical, as much as the defender was fighting and holding on to the reciever, the reciever was hand fighting and trying to push off the defender. Neither man was playing completely clean to where the fault of the other was blatently obvious.
San Francisco fans will grumble and complain but I saw nothing wrong with making a no-call there and nothing inconsistent with it either.
Now, on to the commercials. They were particularly unmemorable this year. Usually, one might say that they were either good or bad or there might be a debate about which ones they liked or didn't. I simply can't remember most of them as they made almost no impression on me.
The only one that comes to my mind that I remember and like was the M&M's "Anything For Love". One, I like M&Ms; two, I like that song; and three, it took us a second, but the primary actress there is the same actress who plays Santana on Glee. I've seen a fair amount of love for Dodge's "Farmer" ad, which I missed. However, most of the love for this ad seems to stem for people's love of Paul Harvey and you have to pay close attention to notice that it's an ad for a Dodge truck.
The consensus worst ad was the Go Daddy ad featuring the Supermodel and the Nerd. If left to simple devices, the ad might have been funny, however, the producers elected to amp up the audio on the kissing to levels I've not even heard in adult films. Even if the Nerd had magically transformed to a Calvin Klien model (which was Mrs. X's favorite ad), the audio would have sickened anyone watching. It was memorable but for all the wrong reasons.
So here's to the end of another football season. Now we'll wait two and a half months until the draft and then four months after that to the start of the 2013 season.
Monday, January 21, 2013
The Harbaugh Bowl
Although I hadn't posted about it, I think I did pretty well in the post-season picks this year. I got all four games right in the first week. I went 2 of 4 in the second week (I picked Denver, New England, San Francisco, and Seattle) and then I got both games right this week.
I was a lot less sold on Baltimore, but after they defeated Denver, a friend of mine told me that that he thought that this Ravens team looks an awful lot like the Steelers team that won Super Bowl XL back in 2006. New England wasn't that good when one looked at them closely and they're much vaunted defense was about as bad as I expected. Baltimore would have won by even more if their recievers had figured out how to catch the ball before the second half. There were a number of dropped passes that the defense had nothing to do with.
On the NFC side, I had a feeling about the 49ers but that feeling was tested early when the Falcons jumped up 17-0. Then you could see the tide turning, much like the Seattle game. The only question was whether or not San Francisco was going to shoot themselves in the foot before they managed to take the lead. But they did and they managed to bleed the Falcons down at the end.
So who has the advantage in the Super Bowl? Going with the '05 Steelers parallel, I would say Baltimore. I think their defense is more consistent (even if it is old) and I think they will hit harder than the 49ers, who still seem like a bit of a finese team (although not as much as the Falcons). I also trust the Baltimore offense and it's deep threat better than I do the scrambling QB for the 49ers.
I was a lot less sold on Baltimore, but after they defeated Denver, a friend of mine told me that that he thought that this Ravens team looks an awful lot like the Steelers team that won Super Bowl XL back in 2006. New England wasn't that good when one looked at them closely and they're much vaunted defense was about as bad as I expected. Baltimore would have won by even more if their recievers had figured out how to catch the ball before the second half. There were a number of dropped passes that the defense had nothing to do with.
On the NFC side, I had a feeling about the 49ers but that feeling was tested early when the Falcons jumped up 17-0. Then you could see the tide turning, much like the Seattle game. The only question was whether or not San Francisco was going to shoot themselves in the foot before they managed to take the lead. But they did and they managed to bleed the Falcons down at the end.
So who has the advantage in the Super Bowl? Going with the '05 Steelers parallel, I would say Baltimore. I think their defense is more consistent (even if it is old) and I think they will hit harder than the 49ers, who still seem like a bit of a finese team (although not as much as the Falcons). I also trust the Baltimore offense and it's deep threat better than I do the scrambling QB for the 49ers.
Friday, January 18, 2013
The Riddle of Power
A king, a priest, and a wealthy man are in a room together. Also in the room is a poor, common man with a sword. Each man demands that the commoner kill the other two. The king promises to elevate the man to that of a knight with his own lands and estate. The priest promises that the man will have earned favor with God and his place in paradise will be assured. The wealthy man offers half of his fortune for the man to do with as he pleases.
Who does the common man obey and who dies?
This is a variation on a riddle posed by the spymaster Varys to the newly appointed Hand of the King, Tyrion Lannister, in A Clash of Kings. The riddle itself is most interesting for several reasons, not the least of which is that it has no answer. Obviously the common man is going to respond to whichever aspect of power is most attractive to himself, whether that be governmental, spiritual, or monetary.
The riddle is also interesting in how it shows that power itself is an illusion. The three men in question all held things that defined power, but the true power of life and death was held by the man with the sword. Only by the exise of this power, would the power of the survivor be able to manifest itself to the benefit of the common man with the sword. However, the powers that the three men have are real to some degree because the common man can't take what was offered from the two dead men. Likewise, he earns nothing for his troubles if he kills all three men with his absolute power of life and death. This gives a partial answer to the follow up question that if the man with the sword has all the power, why to the men with swords follow the leaders and not the other way around?
I have no real point to all of this, only to note the interesting nature of power and the illusary pursuit of it. I like riddles and I like philosphical questions as well.
Who does the common man obey and who dies?
This is a variation on a riddle posed by the spymaster Varys to the newly appointed Hand of the King, Tyrion Lannister, in A Clash of Kings. The riddle itself is most interesting for several reasons, not the least of which is that it has no answer. Obviously the common man is going to respond to whichever aspect of power is most attractive to himself, whether that be governmental, spiritual, or monetary.
The riddle is also interesting in how it shows that power itself is an illusion. The three men in question all held things that defined power, but the true power of life and death was held by the man with the sword. Only by the exise of this power, would the power of the survivor be able to manifest itself to the benefit of the common man with the sword. However, the powers that the three men have are real to some degree because the common man can't take what was offered from the two dead men. Likewise, he earns nothing for his troubles if he kills all three men with his absolute power of life and death. This gives a partial answer to the follow up question that if the man with the sword has all the power, why to the men with swords follow the leaders and not the other way around?
I have no real point to all of this, only to note the interesting nature of power and the illusary pursuit of it. I like riddles and I like philosphical questions as well.
Tuesday, January 08, 2013
Monday, January 07, 2013
Wednesday, January 02, 2013
NFL Playoffs - Wild Card Round
The NFL Playoffs begin this Saturday and especially as the Bengals have actually gotten in, it seems only natural that we take a quick look at things.
Game 1 - Cincinnati at Houston
This is a rematch of the wild card game last year. The Bengals had a good chance going in but Houston was too strong and prevailed. This year, no one seems to be giving Cincinnati even a fighting chance. This is somewhat understandable as up until the last week of the season, Houston was in line for the #1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Houston has an okay defense but a very good offense. Cincinnati has a pretty good defense, but their offense is sorely lacking. AJ Green remains the only true wide recieving threat and the running game has struggled all season. Unless the defense goes into hyperdrive and scores at least one touchdown for the Bengals, I would expect Houston to win the game comfortably.
Game 2 - Minnesota at Green Bay
Divisional playoff games are always hard to get a proper bead on. Minnesota beat Green Bay in the last game of the regular season to make the playoffs so they certainly know how to beat them. Minnesota's defense is nothing to sneeze at and any offense that has Adrian Peterson is always a threat. Green Bay may have one of the best offenses in the league but their defense is still pretty terrible. Still, the game will be played in Green Bay and I have a hard time believing that a team as experienced as the Packers will fold under pressure of the first round. The Vikings could do it, but I would still expect Green Bay to emerge victorious.
Game 3 - Indianapolis at Baltimore
This is where the possiblity of upsets start to become more realistic. Baltimore started strong but has been hampered by injuries as the season has gone on. Their once vaunted defense is a shell of it's former glory and the offense has never fully materialized. Conversely, the Indianapolis offense has become stronger against more difficult foes. Their defense is still a bit suspect but that may not matter as much against a weaker offense. If Baltimore has a good chance of avoiding the upset it is the fact that they are the veteran team and this Colts team has enough new parts that they may be caught up in the "happy to be here" moment. I would give the edge to Baltimore but I think Indianapolis has nearly a 50-50 chance of winning the game.
Game 4 - Seattle at Washington
Washington has done very well to win the East and get to this point. They are a good team and are fairly hot at the moment. However, they are going up against what may be the hottest team in football at the moment in Seattle. Seattle and Washington are nearly mirror images of each other with a mobile QB and a run first mentality anchored by a quick, slashing running attack. Washington probably has a slightly better defense but I wouldn't slouch on Seattle's defense. Washington has homefield and RG3 has been amazing in his ability to magic wins from nowhere but they are also going to be somewhat emotionally spent after the game against Dallas to win the division. Seattle has a long ride but they are used to that and have been assured of a playoff spot since the end of Week 16. I think Seattle will keep their momentum going and win against Washington but I think it will take nearly everything they've got to top the Redskins.
Game 1 - Cincinnati at Houston
This is a rematch of the wild card game last year. The Bengals had a good chance going in but Houston was too strong and prevailed. This year, no one seems to be giving Cincinnati even a fighting chance. This is somewhat understandable as up until the last week of the season, Houston was in line for the #1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Houston has an okay defense but a very good offense. Cincinnati has a pretty good defense, but their offense is sorely lacking. AJ Green remains the only true wide recieving threat and the running game has struggled all season. Unless the defense goes into hyperdrive and scores at least one touchdown for the Bengals, I would expect Houston to win the game comfortably.
Game 2 - Minnesota at Green Bay
Divisional playoff games are always hard to get a proper bead on. Minnesota beat Green Bay in the last game of the regular season to make the playoffs so they certainly know how to beat them. Minnesota's defense is nothing to sneeze at and any offense that has Adrian Peterson is always a threat. Green Bay may have one of the best offenses in the league but their defense is still pretty terrible. Still, the game will be played in Green Bay and I have a hard time believing that a team as experienced as the Packers will fold under pressure of the first round. The Vikings could do it, but I would still expect Green Bay to emerge victorious.
Game 3 - Indianapolis at Baltimore
This is where the possiblity of upsets start to become more realistic. Baltimore started strong but has been hampered by injuries as the season has gone on. Their once vaunted defense is a shell of it's former glory and the offense has never fully materialized. Conversely, the Indianapolis offense has become stronger against more difficult foes. Their defense is still a bit suspect but that may not matter as much against a weaker offense. If Baltimore has a good chance of avoiding the upset it is the fact that they are the veteran team and this Colts team has enough new parts that they may be caught up in the "happy to be here" moment. I would give the edge to Baltimore but I think Indianapolis has nearly a 50-50 chance of winning the game.
Game 4 - Seattle at Washington
Washington has done very well to win the East and get to this point. They are a good team and are fairly hot at the moment. However, they are going up against what may be the hottest team in football at the moment in Seattle. Seattle and Washington are nearly mirror images of each other with a mobile QB and a run first mentality anchored by a quick, slashing running attack. Washington probably has a slightly better defense but I wouldn't slouch on Seattle's defense. Washington has homefield and RG3 has been amazing in his ability to magic wins from nowhere but they are also going to be somewhat emotionally spent after the game against Dallas to win the division. Seattle has a long ride but they are used to that and have been assured of a playoff spot since the end of Week 16. I think Seattle will keep their momentum going and win against Washington but I think it will take nearly everything they've got to top the Redskins.
Friday, December 21, 2012
Monday, December 03, 2012
Friday, November 30, 2012
A New Pharaoh
There has not been a Pharaoh ruling Egypt since Augustus Caesar ordered the execution of Ptolemy XV Caesarion in 30 BC; although some might argue that Gamal Abdel Nassar came very close. That seems to have changed with the new constitution ratified by the Egyptian parlament.
In the new constitution Egypt's president, Mohamed Morsi, has been granted sweeping powers that President's Nassar and Mubarak could only have dreamed of. It is not quite to the level of Pharaoh (as I don't believe he has been granted dynastic succession) but the powers are vast and the protesters filling the streets have been chanting against "Pharaoh Morsi" while they attack Muslim Brotherhood sites.
Unlike some of the other Arab Spring sites (such as Syria), I don't believe that the protesters will win if they move to take military action. But a civil war is certainly possible, which will disrupt Egypt and the whole region for quite a while.
Add to this potential civil, the actual civil war in Syria and the UN's recognition of Palestine as a non-observer state yesterday and you have a reciepe for some serious nastiness in the Middle East.
The one aspect that seems to have escaped people is the full implication of what UN recognition of Palestine means. First, it means that the Oslo Accords are officially dissolved. The PLO coucil will now operate as a legislative body and any new treaties will have to be negotiated with it.
Second, and with broader implications, Israel is no longer negotiating with a people group but a declared state. Israel has stated that under international law, they will move to openly annex all territory where Jewish settlements have been established in Judea and Samaria. This is likely to seen as an assault on Palestinian territory (as they claim all land lost in the 1967 Six-Day War) and will likely move to force international sanctions through the International Criminal Court (ICC) or move to open war with whatever partners they can find.
This grows even futher when you consider that Likud (the ruling party) has nominated a slate that is more conservative than they've had in years. If they get a plurality (and it is widely expected that they will) in the January elections, it will be seen as notice to the Arabs that they are ready and perhaps willing for a fight. More so with expectation that Iran will hit a critical milestone for the development of their nuclear arsenal in late Spring of next year.
Needless to say, I think it is going to get even uglier over there before it gets any better.
In the new constitution Egypt's president, Mohamed Morsi, has been granted sweeping powers that President's Nassar and Mubarak could only have dreamed of. It is not quite to the level of Pharaoh (as I don't believe he has been granted dynastic succession) but the powers are vast and the protesters filling the streets have been chanting against "Pharaoh Morsi" while they attack Muslim Brotherhood sites.
Unlike some of the other Arab Spring sites (such as Syria), I don't believe that the protesters will win if they move to take military action. But a civil war is certainly possible, which will disrupt Egypt and the whole region for quite a while.
Add to this potential civil, the actual civil war in Syria and the UN's recognition of Palestine as a non-observer state yesterday and you have a reciepe for some serious nastiness in the Middle East.
The one aspect that seems to have escaped people is the full implication of what UN recognition of Palestine means. First, it means that the Oslo Accords are officially dissolved. The PLO coucil will now operate as a legislative body and any new treaties will have to be negotiated with it.
Second, and with broader implications, Israel is no longer negotiating with a people group but a declared state. Israel has stated that under international law, they will move to openly annex all territory where Jewish settlements have been established in Judea and Samaria. This is likely to seen as an assault on Palestinian territory (as they claim all land lost in the 1967 Six-Day War) and will likely move to force international sanctions through the International Criminal Court (ICC) or move to open war with whatever partners they can find.
This grows even futher when you consider that Likud (the ruling party) has nominated a slate that is more conservative than they've had in years. If they get a plurality (and it is widely expected that they will) in the January elections, it will be seen as notice to the Arabs that they are ready and perhaps willing for a fight. More so with expectation that Iran will hit a critical milestone for the development of their nuclear arsenal in late Spring of next year.
Needless to say, I think it is going to get even uglier over there before it gets any better.
Thursday, November 15, 2012
The Rains of Castamere
Very difficult not to just hum this tune randomly through the day.
So speaks the pride of Lannister.
So speaks the pride of Lannister.
Thursday, November 08, 2012
Lux Aeterna
I should qualify that this is from Requiem for a Dream and not from 2001. An amazing piece of music.
Wednesday, November 07, 2012
The 51st State
Puerto Rico held a referendum yesterday and the news of that was somewhat lost amid the Presidential results.
The referendum was in two parts. The first part was whether to maintain their current status as a United States territory. The voters opted to terminate their status as a territory 53.99-46.01. The second part of the referendum was that if the majority opted to terminate the current status, they were to choose from three options: apply for statehood, independent nation status, or an independent nation with associated status with the United States (the US currently has this status with the Marshall Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia, and Palau). The voters opted for statehood with 61.15% of the vote. Associated free state came in second with 33.31% of the vote.
As such, the Resident Commissioner of Puerto Rico will draft legislation to be submitted to Congress applying for statehood. This bill will have to pass both the House and Senate and be signed by President Obama. I don't forsee anyone having a problem with accepting Puerto Rico as a full state after all this time so it is very possible that the 51st state will be admitted sometime next year.
The referendum was in two parts. The first part was whether to maintain their current status as a United States territory. The voters opted to terminate their status as a territory 53.99-46.01. The second part of the referendum was that if the majority opted to terminate the current status, they were to choose from three options: apply for statehood, independent nation status, or an independent nation with associated status with the United States (the US currently has this status with the Marshall Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia, and Palau). The voters opted for statehood with 61.15% of the vote. Associated free state came in second with 33.31% of the vote.
As such, the Resident Commissioner of Puerto Rico will draft legislation to be submitted to Congress applying for statehood. This bill will have to pass both the House and Senate and be signed by President Obama. I don't forsee anyone having a problem with accepting Puerto Rico as a full state after all this time so it is very possible that the 51st state will be admitted sometime next year.
Reelection
Blogger crapped out on me just before 10 last night so I was unable to do any additional updates, but there wasn't too much else to say.
For the second Presidential election in a row, I've not only been wrong, but very wrong. I had made the assumption that Mr. Romney would win based on a couple of key assumptions. First, that turnout for Mr. Obama would not be as high as it was in 2008. Voter enthusiasm for Mr. Obama seemed to be down and it wasn't hard to believe that what had been a D+7 electorate would reduce to a D+2 or 3. This may have in fact happened when you look at how much closer it was in terms of the raw numbers in each state.
The second assumption is the one that appears to have defeated me and several other pundits. Nearly every pollster was reporting a large volume of Independents supporting Mr. Romney. Mr. Obama won Independents in 2008 by several points but that had reversed itself in polling. It would appear that that was the mistake. Either Independents were not being honest in the various polls or their support for Mr. Romney was vastly overblown.
Either way, I was wrong and Mr. Obama has been reelected. Republicans maintained their control of the House while Democrats increased their strength in the Senate. For all practical purposes, this was a status quo election where the electorate opted to not rock the boat this time around.
For the second Presidential election in a row, I've not only been wrong, but very wrong. I had made the assumption that Mr. Romney would win based on a couple of key assumptions. First, that turnout for Mr. Obama would not be as high as it was in 2008. Voter enthusiasm for Mr. Obama seemed to be down and it wasn't hard to believe that what had been a D+7 electorate would reduce to a D+2 or 3. This may have in fact happened when you look at how much closer it was in terms of the raw numbers in each state.
The second assumption is the one that appears to have defeated me and several other pundits. Nearly every pollster was reporting a large volume of Independents supporting Mr. Romney. Mr. Obama won Independents in 2008 by several points but that had reversed itself in polling. It would appear that that was the mistake. Either Independents were not being honest in the various polls or their support for Mr. Romney was vastly overblown.
Either way, I was wrong and Mr. Obama has been reelected. Republicans maintained their control of the House while Democrats increased their strength in the Senate. For all practical purposes, this was a status quo election where the electorate opted to not rock the boat this time around.
Tuesday, November 06, 2012
Election Day
Today is Election Day and I'll be keeping my customary running commentary of the day.
7:00 AM Dixville Notch and Hart's Location, NH held their votes just after midnight and reported their results. Dixville Notch tied at 5-5 (it went to Obama 15-6 in 2008) and Hart's Location went to Obama 23-9 (Obama won there 17-10 in 2008). So Mr. Obama is currently leading in New Hampshire 28-14. The rest of New Hampshire polls close at 8:00 PM EST.
10:00 AM Early voting statistics are slowly leaking out for Ohio. Ohio doesn't report party affiliation so people are using county past history. In 2008, in counties that Mr. Obama won, early turnout was 24.8% of registered voters. Counties that Mr. McCain won had early turnout of 19.1% of registered voters.
This year, historicly blue counties are showing an early vote of 21.7% of registered voters while historically red counties are showing an early vote of 21.3% of registered voters. Again, we have no idea of what party affiliation is in these counties or any potential crossover support. Taking it as a whole, it suggests that Ohio will be close and probably called late tonight.
11:30 AM Anecdotal evidence from various coworkers has suggested that turnout is pretty heavy so far. No one reported on having to wait a very long time, like it was in the early voting period, but most people are reporting of seeing more people and having to wait at least a little bit due to volume.
2:15 PM Early voting numbers have been reported by party from Colorado.
Republican: 688,503
Democrat: 653,450
Independent: 547,437
Obviously we don't know what the breakdown is, but one would assume that this would be seen as an encouraging sign for the Romney campaign. (Of course, we all know what assuming does).
3:30 PM Got a meeting and then I'll be heading off to run an errand and then its off to the polling place to vote.
5:00 PM Number 404 in my prescint. Pretty busy but it moved pretty well.
6:00 PM Polls close in most of Indiana and eastern Kentucky. The states will not be called until all polls close at 7:00. I'll be curious to see what discussion is made about those states (if any) since they are generally expected to go for Romney.
6:10 PM Flipping around, it looks like FOX has stolen CNN's interactive map board. CNN is showing results from Kentucky, but are waiting until 7 to make the call.
7:30 PM Just got back from the Y. Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Georgia have been called for Romney while Vermont has been called for Obama. Virginia and Ohio have not been called.
8:15 PM Maine, Massachussetts, Maryland, Rhode Island, Illinois, and Connecticut called for Obama. Oklahoma, Tennessee, Alabama, West Virginia, Mississippi called for Romney.
8:30 PM Arkansas called for Romney.
8:45 PM New Jersey called for Obama.
9:00 PM AP has called North Carolina for Romney.
9:10 PM Most of the plains states called for Romney. Obama takes New Mexico and New York. Michigan was called for Obama as well.
9:20 PM Pennsylvania called for Obama.
9:30 PM Wisconsin called for Obama.
9:40 PM Based on the various Senate calls, I'm guessing that the Democrats will retain control of the Senate.
9:48 PM CBS has called New Hampshire for Obama.
10:10 PM Blogger ate my last comment. The Senate is locked for the Democrats now. No calls are being made, but things are looking good for Obama in Florida, much to the surprise of just about everyone. If Florida goes to Obama, it's over.
7:00 AM Dixville Notch and Hart's Location, NH held their votes just after midnight and reported their results. Dixville Notch tied at 5-5 (it went to Obama 15-6 in 2008) and Hart's Location went to Obama 23-9 (Obama won there 17-10 in 2008). So Mr. Obama is currently leading in New Hampshire 28-14. The rest of New Hampshire polls close at 8:00 PM EST.
10:00 AM Early voting statistics are slowly leaking out for Ohio. Ohio doesn't report party affiliation so people are using county past history. In 2008, in counties that Mr. Obama won, early turnout was 24.8% of registered voters. Counties that Mr. McCain won had early turnout of 19.1% of registered voters.
This year, historicly blue counties are showing an early vote of 21.7% of registered voters while historically red counties are showing an early vote of 21.3% of registered voters. Again, we have no idea of what party affiliation is in these counties or any potential crossover support. Taking it as a whole, it suggests that Ohio will be close and probably called late tonight.
11:30 AM Anecdotal evidence from various coworkers has suggested that turnout is pretty heavy so far. No one reported on having to wait a very long time, like it was in the early voting period, but most people are reporting of seeing more people and having to wait at least a little bit due to volume.
2:15 PM Early voting numbers have been reported by party from Colorado.
Republican: 688,503
Democrat: 653,450
Independent: 547,437
Obviously we don't know what the breakdown is, but one would assume that this would be seen as an encouraging sign for the Romney campaign. (Of course, we all know what assuming does).
3:30 PM Got a meeting and then I'll be heading off to run an errand and then its off to the polling place to vote.
5:00 PM Number 404 in my prescint. Pretty busy but it moved pretty well.
6:00 PM Polls close in most of Indiana and eastern Kentucky. The states will not be called until all polls close at 7:00. I'll be curious to see what discussion is made about those states (if any) since they are generally expected to go for Romney.
6:10 PM Flipping around, it looks like FOX has stolen CNN's interactive map board. CNN is showing results from Kentucky, but are waiting until 7 to make the call.
7:30 PM Just got back from the Y. Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Georgia have been called for Romney while Vermont has been called for Obama. Virginia and Ohio have not been called.
8:15 PM Maine, Massachussetts, Maryland, Rhode Island, Illinois, and Connecticut called for Obama. Oklahoma, Tennessee, Alabama, West Virginia, Mississippi called for Romney.
8:30 PM Arkansas called for Romney.
8:45 PM New Jersey called for Obama.
9:00 PM AP has called North Carolina for Romney.
9:10 PM Most of the plains states called for Romney. Obama takes New Mexico and New York. Michigan was called for Obama as well.
9:20 PM Pennsylvania called for Obama.
9:30 PM Wisconsin called for Obama.
9:40 PM Based on the various Senate calls, I'm guessing that the Democrats will retain control of the Senate.
9:48 PM CBS has called New Hampshire for Obama.
10:10 PM Blogger ate my last comment. The Senate is locked for the Democrats now. No calls are being made, but things are looking good for Obama in Florida, much to the surprise of just about everyone. If Florida goes to Obama, it's over.
Electoral Predictions
Since I've lost the ability to post pictures in IE7 (and that's all I have at work), I've had to create my predictions using 270towin. I've opted for three different scenarios:
The first scenario is the minimum scenario. I think this is the best that Mr. Obama is going to do tonight, and it's still a loss. On this map, Mr. Romney wins 285-253.
It is generally accepted that Mr. Romney is going to win all the McCain states, Indiana and North Carolina. After this, although the Obama campaign is denying it, Florida and Virginia are close to out of their reach as well. Mr. Romney has crossed the 50% threshhold in several polls and has maintained a small lead for several weeks.
The next level is New Hampshire and Colorado. Polls in these states have been tied or shown Mr. Romney with a statistically insignificant lead. But the trend has been towards Mr. Romney and voter enthusiasm (espcially as measured by early voting in Colorado) has been on Mr. Romney's side.
That leaves Ohio and Iowa. Iowa has been very close but neither side has been showing an edge. Ohio has been shown as being close but in Mr. Obama's column. However, in both states, the polling I've seen has been heavily dependent on Democratic turnout closer to the 2008 model. While I do not think it will be as Republican as the 2010 mid-terms, I think it will be close enough that Ohio and Iowa will swing to Mr. Romney.
The second scenario is my own personal gut feeling on how things will go if it is a good night for Mr. Romney. In this one, Wisconsin and Nevada swing to Mr. Romney as well as the states in the 285 scenario, giving Mr. Romney a 301-237 win.
Nevada is solely a gut feeling. Polling has been close but Mr. Obama has always maintained a lead. Unlike a few other states, I've not seen any significant tightening, although the numbers are close enough that a strong independent turnout in favor of Mr. Romney will tip the state into the Republican column.
Wisconsin is also close. It narrowly eluded George W. Bush's grasp twice and it has swung Republican (albeit narrowly) in the last few races involving local issues. Polling has been close, but the recent history of the state and the inclusion of Paul Ryan might be enough to tip the state red.
The third scenario is the Obama nuclear scenario. In this one, Mr. Romney wins a decisive win on the scale of what Mr. Obama won four years ago. I think this scenario is extremely unlikely, but based on a few of the news stories that have come out in the last few days, it is not impossible. In this one, several states (PA, OR, MI, and MN) that have not gone red since at least 1988, turn giving Mr. Romney a 360-178 win.
I only pick these states as polling has shown a potential tight race. Pennsylvania is close enough that Mr. Romney and Mr. Ryan have campaigned in the state this past weekend. Oregon, Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon, New Mexico, and Maine's second district have been somewhat close, enough to speculate that in a huge Republican turnout event, these states would flip over to Mr. Romney.
We shall see if any of these scenarios play out tonight. But, barring something completely out of left field, I think Mr. Romney will win, and become the 45th President of the United States.
The first scenario is the minimum scenario. I think this is the best that Mr. Obama is going to do tonight, and it's still a loss. On this map, Mr. Romney wins 285-253.
It is generally accepted that Mr. Romney is going to win all the McCain states, Indiana and North Carolina. After this, although the Obama campaign is denying it, Florida and Virginia are close to out of their reach as well. Mr. Romney has crossed the 50% threshhold in several polls and has maintained a small lead for several weeks.
The next level is New Hampshire and Colorado. Polls in these states have been tied or shown Mr. Romney with a statistically insignificant lead. But the trend has been towards Mr. Romney and voter enthusiasm (espcially as measured by early voting in Colorado) has been on Mr. Romney's side.
That leaves Ohio and Iowa. Iowa has been very close but neither side has been showing an edge. Ohio has been shown as being close but in Mr. Obama's column. However, in both states, the polling I've seen has been heavily dependent on Democratic turnout closer to the 2008 model. While I do not think it will be as Republican as the 2010 mid-terms, I think it will be close enough that Ohio and Iowa will swing to Mr. Romney.
The second scenario is my own personal gut feeling on how things will go if it is a good night for Mr. Romney. In this one, Wisconsin and Nevada swing to Mr. Romney as well as the states in the 285 scenario, giving Mr. Romney a 301-237 win.
Nevada is solely a gut feeling. Polling has been close but Mr. Obama has always maintained a lead. Unlike a few other states, I've not seen any significant tightening, although the numbers are close enough that a strong independent turnout in favor of Mr. Romney will tip the state into the Republican column.
Wisconsin is also close. It narrowly eluded George W. Bush's grasp twice and it has swung Republican (albeit narrowly) in the last few races involving local issues. Polling has been close, but the recent history of the state and the inclusion of Paul Ryan might be enough to tip the state red.
The third scenario is the Obama nuclear scenario. In this one, Mr. Romney wins a decisive win on the scale of what Mr. Obama won four years ago. I think this scenario is extremely unlikely, but based on a few of the news stories that have come out in the last few days, it is not impossible. In this one, several states (PA, OR, MI, and MN) that have not gone red since at least 1988, turn giving Mr. Romney a 360-178 win.
I only pick these states as polling has shown a potential tight race. Pennsylvania is close enough that Mr. Romney and Mr. Ryan have campaigned in the state this past weekend. Oregon, Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon, New Mexico, and Maine's second district have been somewhat close, enough to speculate that in a huge Republican turnout event, these states would flip over to Mr. Romney.
We shall see if any of these scenarios play out tonight. But, barring something completely out of left field, I think Mr. Romney will win, and become the 45th President of the United States.
Tuesday, October 30, 2012
Troubled Blue Waters
Despite the widespread damage, I think we can all be thankful that the effects of Hurricane Sandy were not as bad as they initially seemed to be. Clean up will take a while, but there doesn't seem to be anything damaged beyond the ability to repair.
Meanwhile, there is the matter of the election a week from today. For the longest time, Mr. Obama seemed to be narrowly ahead and holding off Mr. Romney. Now, things seem to have changed. Mr. Obama lost the momentum after the first debate and has failed in his efforts to get it back. Still, while the polls narrowed further, Mr. Obama still seemed as though he was in control of the situation to make it tight.
However, two bits of news have trickled out this week that are turning things a bit grimmer for Mr. Obama. The first is that whether because of money advantage or being able to redistribute resources, the Romney campaign is now investing money in blue states, both in advertising and GotV efforts. The two largest investments have been in Pennsylvania and Minnesota. Pennsylvania is a frequent Rebublican trap as it always seems tantilizingly close, only to have Philadelphia snap it back to the Democratic column. Minnesota though it interesting. Minnesota hasn't gone red since the Nixon wave of 1972. This may be an advertising play into the bleed over markets of western Wisconsin and northern Iowa, but it has attracted enough attention that the Obama campaign has bought air time to counter the Romney ad buy.
The second, and more significant issue for Mr. Obama, is the Gallup report of early voting. Gallup is reporting in a broad poll that was done, that about 15% of registered voters have gone ahead and cast their ballot and that the percentage of early voting may rise to 33% of all registered voters. This is not groundbreaking as the percentage of votes cast in 2008 also had 33% of them being cast early. What is disturbing for the Obama campaign is that of those 15% already cast, Mr. Romney is leading 52-46. Even worse for the President is that among those who plan to cast their ballot early, Mr. Romney and Mr. Obama are tied 49-49. Mr. Romney is leading among those who plan to vote on election day 51-45.
Mr. Obama's strength in 2008 came largely through early voting. In Ohio, John McCain actually beat Mr. Obama in votes cast on election day, but Mr. Obama had already jumped out to a huge lead and Mr. McCain could not make up the difference. If Mr. Obama does not go into election day with the lead, he could be in real trouble.
One caveat to this analysis though. Gallup's report was done nationally and it is quite possible that most of Mr. Romney's support has come from states that he was going to win anyway. By my current calculation Mr. Romney is leading Mr. Obama 248-237 with six states in true toss up status (NH, OH, WI, IA, CO, NV). If any state outside of these six break against their current leanings, I think it will safe to predict an easy win for the man who does it.
Meanwhile, there is the matter of the election a week from today. For the longest time, Mr. Obama seemed to be narrowly ahead and holding off Mr. Romney. Now, things seem to have changed. Mr. Obama lost the momentum after the first debate and has failed in his efforts to get it back. Still, while the polls narrowed further, Mr. Obama still seemed as though he was in control of the situation to make it tight.
However, two bits of news have trickled out this week that are turning things a bit grimmer for Mr. Obama. The first is that whether because of money advantage or being able to redistribute resources, the Romney campaign is now investing money in blue states, both in advertising and GotV efforts. The two largest investments have been in Pennsylvania and Minnesota. Pennsylvania is a frequent Rebublican trap as it always seems tantilizingly close, only to have Philadelphia snap it back to the Democratic column. Minnesota though it interesting. Minnesota hasn't gone red since the Nixon wave of 1972. This may be an advertising play into the bleed over markets of western Wisconsin and northern Iowa, but it has attracted enough attention that the Obama campaign has bought air time to counter the Romney ad buy.
The second, and more significant issue for Mr. Obama, is the Gallup report of early voting. Gallup is reporting in a broad poll that was done, that about 15% of registered voters have gone ahead and cast their ballot and that the percentage of early voting may rise to 33% of all registered voters. This is not groundbreaking as the percentage of votes cast in 2008 also had 33% of them being cast early. What is disturbing for the Obama campaign is that of those 15% already cast, Mr. Romney is leading 52-46. Even worse for the President is that among those who plan to cast their ballot early, Mr. Romney and Mr. Obama are tied 49-49. Mr. Romney is leading among those who plan to vote on election day 51-45.
Mr. Obama's strength in 2008 came largely through early voting. In Ohio, John McCain actually beat Mr. Obama in votes cast on election day, but Mr. Obama had already jumped out to a huge lead and Mr. McCain could not make up the difference. If Mr. Obama does not go into election day with the lead, he could be in real trouble.
One caveat to this analysis though. Gallup's report was done nationally and it is quite possible that most of Mr. Romney's support has come from states that he was going to win anyway. By my current calculation Mr. Romney is leading Mr. Obama 248-237 with six states in true toss up status (NH, OH, WI, IA, CO, NV). If any state outside of these six break against their current leanings, I think it will safe to predict an easy win for the man who does it.
Monday, October 29, 2012
Poll Closing Times
Now that we're close to the actual election, here's the list of the poll closing times so we can keep tabs on which states are next. All times are EST:
7:00 PM EST
Georgia
Kentucky
Indiana
South Carolina
Vermont
Virginia
7:30 PM EST
North Carolina
Ohio
West Virginia
8:00 PM EST
Alabama
Connecticut
Deleware
Florida
Illinois
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Mississippi
Missouri
New Hampshire
New Jersey
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Tennessee
Washington DC
8:30 PM EST
Arkansas
9:00 PM EST
Arizona
Colorado
Louisiana
Michigan
Minnesota
Nebraska
New Mexico
New York
South Dakota
Texas
Wisconsin
Wyoming
10:00 PM EST
Kansas
Montana
Nevada
Utah
11:00 PM EST
California
Hawaii
Idaho
North Dakota
Oregon
Washington
01:00 AM EST
Alaska
One minor note. Several states (Florida, Michigan, etc.) cover two time zones and will have polls closing at different times. Rather than posting two different times, I've listed the later poll closing times since the media will not call a state until all polls are closed. So, even if it's well known that Mr. Obama has won Michigan a little after 8:00 PM EST, they won't call the state until the polls are closed on the UP at 9:00 PM EST.
7:00 PM EST
Georgia
Kentucky
Indiana
South Carolina
Vermont
Virginia
7:30 PM EST
North Carolina
Ohio
West Virginia
8:00 PM EST
Alabama
Connecticut
Deleware
Florida
Illinois
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Mississippi
Missouri
New Hampshire
New Jersey
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Tennessee
Washington DC
8:30 PM EST
Arkansas
9:00 PM EST
Arizona
Colorado
Louisiana
Michigan
Minnesota
Nebraska
New Mexico
New York
South Dakota
Texas
Wisconsin
Wyoming
10:00 PM EST
Kansas
Montana
Nevada
Utah
11:00 PM EST
California
Hawaii
Idaho
North Dakota
Oregon
Washington
01:00 AM EST
Alaska
One minor note. Several states (Florida, Michigan, etc.) cover two time zones and will have polls closing at different times. Rather than posting two different times, I've listed the later poll closing times since the media will not call a state until all polls are closed. So, even if it's well known that Mr. Obama has won Michigan a little after 8:00 PM EST, they won't call the state until the polls are closed on the UP at 9:00 PM EST.
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