Some mood music for you:
The horror... the horror...
Friday, December 21, 2012
Monday, December 03, 2012
Friday, November 30, 2012
A New Pharaoh
There has not been a Pharaoh ruling Egypt since Augustus Caesar ordered the execution of Ptolemy XV Caesarion in 30 BC; although some might argue that Gamal Abdel Nassar came very close. That seems to have changed with the new constitution ratified by the Egyptian parlament.
In the new constitution Egypt's president, Mohamed Morsi, has been granted sweeping powers that President's Nassar and Mubarak could only have dreamed of. It is not quite to the level of Pharaoh (as I don't believe he has been granted dynastic succession) but the powers are vast and the protesters filling the streets have been chanting against "Pharaoh Morsi" while they attack Muslim Brotherhood sites.
Unlike some of the other Arab Spring sites (such as Syria), I don't believe that the protesters will win if they move to take military action. But a civil war is certainly possible, which will disrupt Egypt and the whole region for quite a while.
Add to this potential civil, the actual civil war in Syria and the UN's recognition of Palestine as a non-observer state yesterday and you have a reciepe for some serious nastiness in the Middle East.
The one aspect that seems to have escaped people is the full implication of what UN recognition of Palestine means. First, it means that the Oslo Accords are officially dissolved. The PLO coucil will now operate as a legislative body and any new treaties will have to be negotiated with it.
Second, and with broader implications, Israel is no longer negotiating with a people group but a declared state. Israel has stated that under international law, they will move to openly annex all territory where Jewish settlements have been established in Judea and Samaria. This is likely to seen as an assault on Palestinian territory (as they claim all land lost in the 1967 Six-Day War) and will likely move to force international sanctions through the International Criminal Court (ICC) or move to open war with whatever partners they can find.
This grows even futher when you consider that Likud (the ruling party) has nominated a slate that is more conservative than they've had in years. If they get a plurality (and it is widely expected that they will) in the January elections, it will be seen as notice to the Arabs that they are ready and perhaps willing for a fight. More so with expectation that Iran will hit a critical milestone for the development of their nuclear arsenal in late Spring of next year.
Needless to say, I think it is going to get even uglier over there before it gets any better.
In the new constitution Egypt's president, Mohamed Morsi, has been granted sweeping powers that President's Nassar and Mubarak could only have dreamed of. It is not quite to the level of Pharaoh (as I don't believe he has been granted dynastic succession) but the powers are vast and the protesters filling the streets have been chanting against "Pharaoh Morsi" while they attack Muslim Brotherhood sites.
Unlike some of the other Arab Spring sites (such as Syria), I don't believe that the protesters will win if they move to take military action. But a civil war is certainly possible, which will disrupt Egypt and the whole region for quite a while.
Add to this potential civil, the actual civil war in Syria and the UN's recognition of Palestine as a non-observer state yesterday and you have a reciepe for some serious nastiness in the Middle East.
The one aspect that seems to have escaped people is the full implication of what UN recognition of Palestine means. First, it means that the Oslo Accords are officially dissolved. The PLO coucil will now operate as a legislative body and any new treaties will have to be negotiated with it.
Second, and with broader implications, Israel is no longer negotiating with a people group but a declared state. Israel has stated that under international law, they will move to openly annex all territory where Jewish settlements have been established in Judea and Samaria. This is likely to seen as an assault on Palestinian territory (as they claim all land lost in the 1967 Six-Day War) and will likely move to force international sanctions through the International Criminal Court (ICC) or move to open war with whatever partners they can find.
This grows even futher when you consider that Likud (the ruling party) has nominated a slate that is more conservative than they've had in years. If they get a plurality (and it is widely expected that they will) in the January elections, it will be seen as notice to the Arabs that they are ready and perhaps willing for a fight. More so with expectation that Iran will hit a critical milestone for the development of their nuclear arsenal in late Spring of next year.
Needless to say, I think it is going to get even uglier over there before it gets any better.
Thursday, November 15, 2012
The Rains of Castamere
Very difficult not to just hum this tune randomly through the day.
So speaks the pride of Lannister.
So speaks the pride of Lannister.
Thursday, November 08, 2012
Lux Aeterna
I should qualify that this is from Requiem for a Dream and not from 2001. An amazing piece of music.
Wednesday, November 07, 2012
The 51st State
Puerto Rico held a referendum yesterday and the news of that was somewhat lost amid the Presidential results.
The referendum was in two parts. The first part was whether to maintain their current status as a United States territory. The voters opted to terminate their status as a territory 53.99-46.01. The second part of the referendum was that if the majority opted to terminate the current status, they were to choose from three options: apply for statehood, independent nation status, or an independent nation with associated status with the United States (the US currently has this status with the Marshall Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia, and Palau). The voters opted for statehood with 61.15% of the vote. Associated free state came in second with 33.31% of the vote.
As such, the Resident Commissioner of Puerto Rico will draft legislation to be submitted to Congress applying for statehood. This bill will have to pass both the House and Senate and be signed by President Obama. I don't forsee anyone having a problem with accepting Puerto Rico as a full state after all this time so it is very possible that the 51st state will be admitted sometime next year.
The referendum was in two parts. The first part was whether to maintain their current status as a United States territory. The voters opted to terminate their status as a territory 53.99-46.01. The second part of the referendum was that if the majority opted to terminate the current status, they were to choose from three options: apply for statehood, independent nation status, or an independent nation with associated status with the United States (the US currently has this status with the Marshall Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia, and Palau). The voters opted for statehood with 61.15% of the vote. Associated free state came in second with 33.31% of the vote.
As such, the Resident Commissioner of Puerto Rico will draft legislation to be submitted to Congress applying for statehood. This bill will have to pass both the House and Senate and be signed by President Obama. I don't forsee anyone having a problem with accepting Puerto Rico as a full state after all this time so it is very possible that the 51st state will be admitted sometime next year.
Reelection
Blogger crapped out on me just before 10 last night so I was unable to do any additional updates, but there wasn't too much else to say.
For the second Presidential election in a row, I've not only been wrong, but very wrong. I had made the assumption that Mr. Romney would win based on a couple of key assumptions. First, that turnout for Mr. Obama would not be as high as it was in 2008. Voter enthusiasm for Mr. Obama seemed to be down and it wasn't hard to believe that what had been a D+7 electorate would reduce to a D+2 or 3. This may have in fact happened when you look at how much closer it was in terms of the raw numbers in each state.
The second assumption is the one that appears to have defeated me and several other pundits. Nearly every pollster was reporting a large volume of Independents supporting Mr. Romney. Mr. Obama won Independents in 2008 by several points but that had reversed itself in polling. It would appear that that was the mistake. Either Independents were not being honest in the various polls or their support for Mr. Romney was vastly overblown.
Either way, I was wrong and Mr. Obama has been reelected. Republicans maintained their control of the House while Democrats increased their strength in the Senate. For all practical purposes, this was a status quo election where the electorate opted to not rock the boat this time around.
For the second Presidential election in a row, I've not only been wrong, but very wrong. I had made the assumption that Mr. Romney would win based on a couple of key assumptions. First, that turnout for Mr. Obama would not be as high as it was in 2008. Voter enthusiasm for Mr. Obama seemed to be down and it wasn't hard to believe that what had been a D+7 electorate would reduce to a D+2 or 3. This may have in fact happened when you look at how much closer it was in terms of the raw numbers in each state.
The second assumption is the one that appears to have defeated me and several other pundits. Nearly every pollster was reporting a large volume of Independents supporting Mr. Romney. Mr. Obama won Independents in 2008 by several points but that had reversed itself in polling. It would appear that that was the mistake. Either Independents were not being honest in the various polls or their support for Mr. Romney was vastly overblown.
Either way, I was wrong and Mr. Obama has been reelected. Republicans maintained their control of the House while Democrats increased their strength in the Senate. For all practical purposes, this was a status quo election where the electorate opted to not rock the boat this time around.
Tuesday, November 06, 2012
Election Day
Today is Election Day and I'll be keeping my customary running commentary of the day.
7:00 AM Dixville Notch and Hart's Location, NH held their votes just after midnight and reported their results. Dixville Notch tied at 5-5 (it went to Obama 15-6 in 2008) and Hart's Location went to Obama 23-9 (Obama won there 17-10 in 2008). So Mr. Obama is currently leading in New Hampshire 28-14. The rest of New Hampshire polls close at 8:00 PM EST.
10:00 AM Early voting statistics are slowly leaking out for Ohio. Ohio doesn't report party affiliation so people are using county past history. In 2008, in counties that Mr. Obama won, early turnout was 24.8% of registered voters. Counties that Mr. McCain won had early turnout of 19.1% of registered voters.
This year, historicly blue counties are showing an early vote of 21.7% of registered voters while historically red counties are showing an early vote of 21.3% of registered voters. Again, we have no idea of what party affiliation is in these counties or any potential crossover support. Taking it as a whole, it suggests that Ohio will be close and probably called late tonight.
11:30 AM Anecdotal evidence from various coworkers has suggested that turnout is pretty heavy so far. No one reported on having to wait a very long time, like it was in the early voting period, but most people are reporting of seeing more people and having to wait at least a little bit due to volume.
2:15 PM Early voting numbers have been reported by party from Colorado.
Republican: 688,503
Democrat: 653,450
Independent: 547,437
Obviously we don't know what the breakdown is, but one would assume that this would be seen as an encouraging sign for the Romney campaign. (Of course, we all know what assuming does).
3:30 PM Got a meeting and then I'll be heading off to run an errand and then its off to the polling place to vote.
5:00 PM Number 404 in my prescint. Pretty busy but it moved pretty well.
6:00 PM Polls close in most of Indiana and eastern Kentucky. The states will not be called until all polls close at 7:00. I'll be curious to see what discussion is made about those states (if any) since they are generally expected to go for Romney.
6:10 PM Flipping around, it looks like FOX has stolen CNN's interactive map board. CNN is showing results from Kentucky, but are waiting until 7 to make the call.
7:30 PM Just got back from the Y. Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Georgia have been called for Romney while Vermont has been called for Obama. Virginia and Ohio have not been called.
8:15 PM Maine, Massachussetts, Maryland, Rhode Island, Illinois, and Connecticut called for Obama. Oklahoma, Tennessee, Alabama, West Virginia, Mississippi called for Romney.
8:30 PM Arkansas called for Romney.
8:45 PM New Jersey called for Obama.
9:00 PM AP has called North Carolina for Romney.
9:10 PM Most of the plains states called for Romney. Obama takes New Mexico and New York. Michigan was called for Obama as well.
9:20 PM Pennsylvania called for Obama.
9:30 PM Wisconsin called for Obama.
9:40 PM Based on the various Senate calls, I'm guessing that the Democrats will retain control of the Senate.
9:48 PM CBS has called New Hampshire for Obama.
10:10 PM Blogger ate my last comment. The Senate is locked for the Democrats now. No calls are being made, but things are looking good for Obama in Florida, much to the surprise of just about everyone. If Florida goes to Obama, it's over.
7:00 AM Dixville Notch and Hart's Location, NH held their votes just after midnight and reported their results. Dixville Notch tied at 5-5 (it went to Obama 15-6 in 2008) and Hart's Location went to Obama 23-9 (Obama won there 17-10 in 2008). So Mr. Obama is currently leading in New Hampshire 28-14. The rest of New Hampshire polls close at 8:00 PM EST.
10:00 AM Early voting statistics are slowly leaking out for Ohio. Ohio doesn't report party affiliation so people are using county past history. In 2008, in counties that Mr. Obama won, early turnout was 24.8% of registered voters. Counties that Mr. McCain won had early turnout of 19.1% of registered voters.
This year, historicly blue counties are showing an early vote of 21.7% of registered voters while historically red counties are showing an early vote of 21.3% of registered voters. Again, we have no idea of what party affiliation is in these counties or any potential crossover support. Taking it as a whole, it suggests that Ohio will be close and probably called late tonight.
11:30 AM Anecdotal evidence from various coworkers has suggested that turnout is pretty heavy so far. No one reported on having to wait a very long time, like it was in the early voting period, but most people are reporting of seeing more people and having to wait at least a little bit due to volume.
2:15 PM Early voting numbers have been reported by party from Colorado.
Republican: 688,503
Democrat: 653,450
Independent: 547,437
Obviously we don't know what the breakdown is, but one would assume that this would be seen as an encouraging sign for the Romney campaign. (Of course, we all know what assuming does).
3:30 PM Got a meeting and then I'll be heading off to run an errand and then its off to the polling place to vote.
5:00 PM Number 404 in my prescint. Pretty busy but it moved pretty well.
6:00 PM Polls close in most of Indiana and eastern Kentucky. The states will not be called until all polls close at 7:00. I'll be curious to see what discussion is made about those states (if any) since they are generally expected to go for Romney.
6:10 PM Flipping around, it looks like FOX has stolen CNN's interactive map board. CNN is showing results from Kentucky, but are waiting until 7 to make the call.
7:30 PM Just got back from the Y. Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Georgia have been called for Romney while Vermont has been called for Obama. Virginia and Ohio have not been called.
8:15 PM Maine, Massachussetts, Maryland, Rhode Island, Illinois, and Connecticut called for Obama. Oklahoma, Tennessee, Alabama, West Virginia, Mississippi called for Romney.
8:30 PM Arkansas called for Romney.
8:45 PM New Jersey called for Obama.
9:00 PM AP has called North Carolina for Romney.
9:10 PM Most of the plains states called for Romney. Obama takes New Mexico and New York. Michigan was called for Obama as well.
9:20 PM Pennsylvania called for Obama.
9:30 PM Wisconsin called for Obama.
9:40 PM Based on the various Senate calls, I'm guessing that the Democrats will retain control of the Senate.
9:48 PM CBS has called New Hampshire for Obama.
10:10 PM Blogger ate my last comment. The Senate is locked for the Democrats now. No calls are being made, but things are looking good for Obama in Florida, much to the surprise of just about everyone. If Florida goes to Obama, it's over.
Electoral Predictions
Since I've lost the ability to post pictures in IE7 (and that's all I have at work), I've had to create my predictions using 270towin. I've opted for three different scenarios:
The first scenario is the minimum scenario. I think this is the best that Mr. Obama is going to do tonight, and it's still a loss. On this map, Mr. Romney wins 285-253.
It is generally accepted that Mr. Romney is going to win all the McCain states, Indiana and North Carolina. After this, although the Obama campaign is denying it, Florida and Virginia are close to out of their reach as well. Mr. Romney has crossed the 50% threshhold in several polls and has maintained a small lead for several weeks.
The next level is New Hampshire and Colorado. Polls in these states have been tied or shown Mr. Romney with a statistically insignificant lead. But the trend has been towards Mr. Romney and voter enthusiasm (espcially as measured by early voting in Colorado) has been on Mr. Romney's side.
That leaves Ohio and Iowa. Iowa has been very close but neither side has been showing an edge. Ohio has been shown as being close but in Mr. Obama's column. However, in both states, the polling I've seen has been heavily dependent on Democratic turnout closer to the 2008 model. While I do not think it will be as Republican as the 2010 mid-terms, I think it will be close enough that Ohio and Iowa will swing to Mr. Romney.
The second scenario is my own personal gut feeling on how things will go if it is a good night for Mr. Romney. In this one, Wisconsin and Nevada swing to Mr. Romney as well as the states in the 285 scenario, giving Mr. Romney a 301-237 win.
Nevada is solely a gut feeling. Polling has been close but Mr. Obama has always maintained a lead. Unlike a few other states, I've not seen any significant tightening, although the numbers are close enough that a strong independent turnout in favor of Mr. Romney will tip the state into the Republican column.
Wisconsin is also close. It narrowly eluded George W. Bush's grasp twice and it has swung Republican (albeit narrowly) in the last few races involving local issues. Polling has been close, but the recent history of the state and the inclusion of Paul Ryan might be enough to tip the state red.
The third scenario is the Obama nuclear scenario. In this one, Mr. Romney wins a decisive win on the scale of what Mr. Obama won four years ago. I think this scenario is extremely unlikely, but based on a few of the news stories that have come out in the last few days, it is not impossible. In this one, several states (PA, OR, MI, and MN) that have not gone red since at least 1988, turn giving Mr. Romney a 360-178 win.
I only pick these states as polling has shown a potential tight race. Pennsylvania is close enough that Mr. Romney and Mr. Ryan have campaigned in the state this past weekend. Oregon, Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon, New Mexico, and Maine's second district have been somewhat close, enough to speculate that in a huge Republican turnout event, these states would flip over to Mr. Romney.
We shall see if any of these scenarios play out tonight. But, barring something completely out of left field, I think Mr. Romney will win, and become the 45th President of the United States.
The first scenario is the minimum scenario. I think this is the best that Mr. Obama is going to do tonight, and it's still a loss. On this map, Mr. Romney wins 285-253.
It is generally accepted that Mr. Romney is going to win all the McCain states, Indiana and North Carolina. After this, although the Obama campaign is denying it, Florida and Virginia are close to out of their reach as well. Mr. Romney has crossed the 50% threshhold in several polls and has maintained a small lead for several weeks.
The next level is New Hampshire and Colorado. Polls in these states have been tied or shown Mr. Romney with a statistically insignificant lead. But the trend has been towards Mr. Romney and voter enthusiasm (espcially as measured by early voting in Colorado) has been on Mr. Romney's side.
That leaves Ohio and Iowa. Iowa has been very close but neither side has been showing an edge. Ohio has been shown as being close but in Mr. Obama's column. However, in both states, the polling I've seen has been heavily dependent on Democratic turnout closer to the 2008 model. While I do not think it will be as Republican as the 2010 mid-terms, I think it will be close enough that Ohio and Iowa will swing to Mr. Romney.
The second scenario is my own personal gut feeling on how things will go if it is a good night for Mr. Romney. In this one, Wisconsin and Nevada swing to Mr. Romney as well as the states in the 285 scenario, giving Mr. Romney a 301-237 win.
Nevada is solely a gut feeling. Polling has been close but Mr. Obama has always maintained a lead. Unlike a few other states, I've not seen any significant tightening, although the numbers are close enough that a strong independent turnout in favor of Mr. Romney will tip the state into the Republican column.
Wisconsin is also close. It narrowly eluded George W. Bush's grasp twice and it has swung Republican (albeit narrowly) in the last few races involving local issues. Polling has been close, but the recent history of the state and the inclusion of Paul Ryan might be enough to tip the state red.
The third scenario is the Obama nuclear scenario. In this one, Mr. Romney wins a decisive win on the scale of what Mr. Obama won four years ago. I think this scenario is extremely unlikely, but based on a few of the news stories that have come out in the last few days, it is not impossible. In this one, several states (PA, OR, MI, and MN) that have not gone red since at least 1988, turn giving Mr. Romney a 360-178 win.
I only pick these states as polling has shown a potential tight race. Pennsylvania is close enough that Mr. Romney and Mr. Ryan have campaigned in the state this past weekend. Oregon, Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon, New Mexico, and Maine's second district have been somewhat close, enough to speculate that in a huge Republican turnout event, these states would flip over to Mr. Romney.
We shall see if any of these scenarios play out tonight. But, barring something completely out of left field, I think Mr. Romney will win, and become the 45th President of the United States.
Tuesday, October 30, 2012
Troubled Blue Waters
Despite the widespread damage, I think we can all be thankful that the effects of Hurricane Sandy were not as bad as they initially seemed to be. Clean up will take a while, but there doesn't seem to be anything damaged beyond the ability to repair.
Meanwhile, there is the matter of the election a week from today. For the longest time, Mr. Obama seemed to be narrowly ahead and holding off Mr. Romney. Now, things seem to have changed. Mr. Obama lost the momentum after the first debate and has failed in his efforts to get it back. Still, while the polls narrowed further, Mr. Obama still seemed as though he was in control of the situation to make it tight.
However, two bits of news have trickled out this week that are turning things a bit grimmer for Mr. Obama. The first is that whether because of money advantage or being able to redistribute resources, the Romney campaign is now investing money in blue states, both in advertising and GotV efforts. The two largest investments have been in Pennsylvania and Minnesota. Pennsylvania is a frequent Rebublican trap as it always seems tantilizingly close, only to have Philadelphia snap it back to the Democratic column. Minnesota though it interesting. Minnesota hasn't gone red since the Nixon wave of 1972. This may be an advertising play into the bleed over markets of western Wisconsin and northern Iowa, but it has attracted enough attention that the Obama campaign has bought air time to counter the Romney ad buy.
The second, and more significant issue for Mr. Obama, is the Gallup report of early voting. Gallup is reporting in a broad poll that was done, that about 15% of registered voters have gone ahead and cast their ballot and that the percentage of early voting may rise to 33% of all registered voters. This is not groundbreaking as the percentage of votes cast in 2008 also had 33% of them being cast early. What is disturbing for the Obama campaign is that of those 15% already cast, Mr. Romney is leading 52-46. Even worse for the President is that among those who plan to cast their ballot early, Mr. Romney and Mr. Obama are tied 49-49. Mr. Romney is leading among those who plan to vote on election day 51-45.
Mr. Obama's strength in 2008 came largely through early voting. In Ohio, John McCain actually beat Mr. Obama in votes cast on election day, but Mr. Obama had already jumped out to a huge lead and Mr. McCain could not make up the difference. If Mr. Obama does not go into election day with the lead, he could be in real trouble.
One caveat to this analysis though. Gallup's report was done nationally and it is quite possible that most of Mr. Romney's support has come from states that he was going to win anyway. By my current calculation Mr. Romney is leading Mr. Obama 248-237 with six states in true toss up status (NH, OH, WI, IA, CO, NV). If any state outside of these six break against their current leanings, I think it will safe to predict an easy win for the man who does it.
Meanwhile, there is the matter of the election a week from today. For the longest time, Mr. Obama seemed to be narrowly ahead and holding off Mr. Romney. Now, things seem to have changed. Mr. Obama lost the momentum after the first debate and has failed in his efforts to get it back. Still, while the polls narrowed further, Mr. Obama still seemed as though he was in control of the situation to make it tight.
However, two bits of news have trickled out this week that are turning things a bit grimmer for Mr. Obama. The first is that whether because of money advantage or being able to redistribute resources, the Romney campaign is now investing money in blue states, both in advertising and GotV efforts. The two largest investments have been in Pennsylvania and Minnesota. Pennsylvania is a frequent Rebublican trap as it always seems tantilizingly close, only to have Philadelphia snap it back to the Democratic column. Minnesota though it interesting. Minnesota hasn't gone red since the Nixon wave of 1972. This may be an advertising play into the bleed over markets of western Wisconsin and northern Iowa, but it has attracted enough attention that the Obama campaign has bought air time to counter the Romney ad buy.
The second, and more significant issue for Mr. Obama, is the Gallup report of early voting. Gallup is reporting in a broad poll that was done, that about 15% of registered voters have gone ahead and cast their ballot and that the percentage of early voting may rise to 33% of all registered voters. This is not groundbreaking as the percentage of votes cast in 2008 also had 33% of them being cast early. What is disturbing for the Obama campaign is that of those 15% already cast, Mr. Romney is leading 52-46. Even worse for the President is that among those who plan to cast their ballot early, Mr. Romney and Mr. Obama are tied 49-49. Mr. Romney is leading among those who plan to vote on election day 51-45.
Mr. Obama's strength in 2008 came largely through early voting. In Ohio, John McCain actually beat Mr. Obama in votes cast on election day, but Mr. Obama had already jumped out to a huge lead and Mr. McCain could not make up the difference. If Mr. Obama does not go into election day with the lead, he could be in real trouble.
One caveat to this analysis though. Gallup's report was done nationally and it is quite possible that most of Mr. Romney's support has come from states that he was going to win anyway. By my current calculation Mr. Romney is leading Mr. Obama 248-237 with six states in true toss up status (NH, OH, WI, IA, CO, NV). If any state outside of these six break against their current leanings, I think it will safe to predict an easy win for the man who does it.
Monday, October 29, 2012
Poll Closing Times
Now that we're close to the actual election, here's the list of the poll closing times so we can keep tabs on which states are next. All times are EST:
7:00 PM EST
Georgia
Kentucky
Indiana
South Carolina
Vermont
Virginia
7:30 PM EST
North Carolina
Ohio
West Virginia
8:00 PM EST
Alabama
Connecticut
Deleware
Florida
Illinois
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Mississippi
Missouri
New Hampshire
New Jersey
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Tennessee
Washington DC
8:30 PM EST
Arkansas
9:00 PM EST
Arizona
Colorado
Louisiana
Michigan
Minnesota
Nebraska
New Mexico
New York
South Dakota
Texas
Wisconsin
Wyoming
10:00 PM EST
Kansas
Montana
Nevada
Utah
11:00 PM EST
California
Hawaii
Idaho
North Dakota
Oregon
Washington
01:00 AM EST
Alaska
One minor note. Several states (Florida, Michigan, etc.) cover two time zones and will have polls closing at different times. Rather than posting two different times, I've listed the later poll closing times since the media will not call a state until all polls are closed. So, even if it's well known that Mr. Obama has won Michigan a little after 8:00 PM EST, they won't call the state until the polls are closed on the UP at 9:00 PM EST.
7:00 PM EST
Georgia
Kentucky
Indiana
South Carolina
Vermont
Virginia
7:30 PM EST
North Carolina
Ohio
West Virginia
8:00 PM EST
Alabama
Connecticut
Deleware
Florida
Illinois
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Mississippi
Missouri
New Hampshire
New Jersey
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Tennessee
Washington DC
8:30 PM EST
Arkansas
9:00 PM EST
Arizona
Colorado
Louisiana
Michigan
Minnesota
Nebraska
New Mexico
New York
South Dakota
Texas
Wisconsin
Wyoming
10:00 PM EST
Kansas
Montana
Nevada
Utah
11:00 PM EST
California
Hawaii
Idaho
North Dakota
Oregon
Washington
01:00 AM EST
Alaska
One minor note. Several states (Florida, Michigan, etc.) cover two time zones and will have polls closing at different times. Rather than posting two different times, I've listed the later poll closing times since the media will not call a state until all polls are closed. So, even if it's well known that Mr. Obama has won Michigan a little after 8:00 PM EST, they won't call the state until the polls are closed on the UP at 9:00 PM EST.
Friday, October 26, 2012
Philadelphia as New Orleans?
We are still five days out, but the cone track of Hurricane Sandy does not look promising for the city of Philadelphia. The center of the cone is tracking to the mouth of the Deleware River on Tuesday morning and if this holds (or keeps to something similar, Sandy could push significant storm surge up the Deleware River and into downtown Philadelphia.
Philadelphia obviously does not have the levy system that New Orleans has, nor is it below sea level. It is a major port with most of downtown being at or just above sea level. Any significant storm surge would meet little resistance as it comes up the river.
Making matters even more interesting is the fact that this storm is looking to come ashore one week before the election. If there is significant damage done to the area, it is possible that power might not be restored to sections of the Eastern seaboard by the following Tuesday. I don't know what kind of back up plans are in place, but alternate polling locations would have to be set up and those polling locations would have to rely on back up paper ballots.
This is obviously a worst-case scenario, but one to keep in mind as Sandy tracks closer to the US over the next few days.
Philadelphia obviously does not have the levy system that New Orleans has, nor is it below sea level. It is a major port with most of downtown being at or just above sea level. Any significant storm surge would meet little resistance as it comes up the river.
Making matters even more interesting is the fact that this storm is looking to come ashore one week before the election. If there is significant damage done to the area, it is possible that power might not be restored to sections of the Eastern seaboard by the following Tuesday. I don't know what kind of back up plans are in place, but alternate polling locations would have to be set up and those polling locations would have to rely on back up paper ballots.
This is obviously a worst-case scenario, but one to keep in mind as Sandy tracks closer to the US over the next few days.
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
Results
With several contests going on last night, there were multiple results.
First, the San Francisco Giants completed their second big comeback of the postseason, crushing the St. Louis Cardinals in game 7 to earn a date with the Detroit Tigers in the World Series. As the National League won the All-Star Game, the series will open in San Francisco tomorrow.
Second, the Chicago Bears used a brutal defense to beat the Detroit Lions 13-7. Chicago retains first place in the NFC North and more importantly, as Matt Forte and Brandon Marshall failed to score 30 fantasy points, I won my match-up for the week. This was only my second win of the season (2-4-1) but I'm actually not in last place in my division.
Finally, there was the debate. My reading on it seems that it was mostly a draw again. Mr. Obama seems to have been credited with the win, but it doesn't appear that in the immediate reaction that he was able to land any significant blows on Mr. Romney to move the needle much. CBS instant poll showed an Obama win 53-23-24 while CNN's instant poll showed Obama winning 48-40. CNN also had a poll showing that both men scored in the 60's on handling the job of C-in-C, while PPP had a poll showing that for independent voters, the more/less likely to vote for a candidate was 32/48 Obama and 47/35 Romney. CNN had one additional poll asking who the debate made you more likely to vote for: Obama - 24, Romney - 25, Neither - 50.
I did not watch most of the debate, but I did flip over for a few minutes during halftime of MNF. My own personal thoughts (aside from being bored listening to the men) was that Mr. Romney looked fairly confident and a little condescending towards Mr. Obama. Mr. Obama looked frustrated and a bit angry. He knew he had to land a hard blow to move the momentum back into his column and it appeared that he knew he wasn't getting it.
As I said yesterday, I expect the numbers on this debate to be much lower than the first two. I suspect that both candidates knew it too, giving even more rise to the idea that Mr. Romney was playing prevent defense and Mr. Obama was getting frustrated by his lack of ability to score a strong hit on Mr. Romney.
Fourteen days to go.
First, the San Francisco Giants completed their second big comeback of the postseason, crushing the St. Louis Cardinals in game 7 to earn a date with the Detroit Tigers in the World Series. As the National League won the All-Star Game, the series will open in San Francisco tomorrow.
Second, the Chicago Bears used a brutal defense to beat the Detroit Lions 13-7. Chicago retains first place in the NFC North and more importantly, as Matt Forte and Brandon Marshall failed to score 30 fantasy points, I won my match-up for the week. This was only my second win of the season (2-4-1) but I'm actually not in last place in my division.
Finally, there was the debate. My reading on it seems that it was mostly a draw again. Mr. Obama seems to have been credited with the win, but it doesn't appear that in the immediate reaction that he was able to land any significant blows on Mr. Romney to move the needle much. CBS instant poll showed an Obama win 53-23-24 while CNN's instant poll showed Obama winning 48-40. CNN also had a poll showing that both men scored in the 60's on handling the job of C-in-C, while PPP had a poll showing that for independent voters, the more/less likely to vote for a candidate was 32/48 Obama and 47/35 Romney. CNN had one additional poll asking who the debate made you more likely to vote for: Obama - 24, Romney - 25, Neither - 50.
I did not watch most of the debate, but I did flip over for a few minutes during halftime of MNF. My own personal thoughts (aside from being bored listening to the men) was that Mr. Romney looked fairly confident and a little condescending towards Mr. Obama. Mr. Obama looked frustrated and a bit angry. He knew he had to land a hard blow to move the momentum back into his column and it appeared that he knew he wasn't getting it.
As I said yesterday, I expect the numbers on this debate to be much lower than the first two. I suspect that both candidates knew it too, giving even more rise to the idea that Mr. Romney was playing prevent defense and Mr. Obama was getting frustrated by his lack of ability to score a strong hit on Mr. Romney.
Fourteen days to go.
Monday, October 22, 2012
Final Debate Tonight
Tonight is the third and final debate between Mr. Romney and Mr. Obama. The subject of the debate is Foreign Policy and I would imagine that the events in Libya a little over a month ago will dominate the discussion.
I would expect significantly lower ratings for this debate rather than the first two.
First, anyone looking for reassurance in their leanings or curious about a candidate they didn't know that well should have been answered in the first two debates.
Second, Foreign Policy almost always rates lower in issues than economic issues so a number of people will by-pass as they are not interested in the subject matter of the debate.
Third, competition. This debate happens to be going up against both Monday Night Football (Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears) and Game 7 of the NLCS (St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants). With two fairly big sporting events to chose from, a number of people will turn elsewhere on the tube tonight.
Still, there should be some fireworks tonight as Mr. Obama is still trying to fully right the ship after the first debate. He staunched the bleeding in the second debate, but Mr. Romney seems to still have the momentum. Ideally, Mr. Obama needs a knock down as hard as the one he recieved in the first debate. Mr. Romney, on the other hand, just needs to land a few hard blows and not take too many (i.e. another draw) and he should keep himself in good position.
Even though I have no intention of actually watching the debate, I'll still look things over and try to do some sort of post-mortem.
I would expect significantly lower ratings for this debate rather than the first two.
First, anyone looking for reassurance in their leanings or curious about a candidate they didn't know that well should have been answered in the first two debates.
Second, Foreign Policy almost always rates lower in issues than economic issues so a number of people will by-pass as they are not interested in the subject matter of the debate.
Third, competition. This debate happens to be going up against both Monday Night Football (Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears) and Game 7 of the NLCS (St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants). With two fairly big sporting events to chose from, a number of people will turn elsewhere on the tube tonight.
Still, there should be some fireworks tonight as Mr. Obama is still trying to fully right the ship after the first debate. He staunched the bleeding in the second debate, but Mr. Romney seems to still have the momentum. Ideally, Mr. Obama needs a knock down as hard as the one he recieved in the first debate. Mr. Romney, on the other hand, just needs to land a few hard blows and not take too many (i.e. another draw) and he should keep himself in good position.
Even though I have no intention of actually watching the debate, I'll still look things over and try to do some sort of post-mortem.
Friday, October 19, 2012
2006 Redux?
Last night the Tigers eliminated the NY Yankees and won the AL Pennant. Also last night, the St. Louis Cardinals went up on the SF Giants 3 games to 1 and will look to close out their series tonight.
This would set up a rematch of the 2006 World Series which the Cardinals won 4-1. I'm sure the Tigers will be looking to redeem themselves this time around.
One other odd little point about the AL and NL Championship series. This may have been the first time that the last three World Series winners were represented in the Championship series. St. Louis is the defending champion and they are facing off against San Francisco, who won the 2010 World Series. The Yankees had won the 2009 World Series. Only Detroit was the oddball, having not won the World Series since 1984.
It wouldn't have been possible to get all four previous winners in the Championship series as the Philadelphia Phillies (NL) won the 2008 World Series. The best one could have done would have been to replace Detroit with the Boston Red Sox, who won the 2007 World Series.
This would set up a rematch of the 2006 World Series which the Cardinals won 4-1. I'm sure the Tigers will be looking to redeem themselves this time around.
One other odd little point about the AL and NL Championship series. This may have been the first time that the last three World Series winners were represented in the Championship series. St. Louis is the defending champion and they are facing off against San Francisco, who won the 2010 World Series. The Yankees had won the 2009 World Series. Only Detroit was the oddball, having not won the World Series since 1984.
It wouldn't have been possible to get all four previous winners in the Championship series as the Philadelphia Phillies (NL) won the 2008 World Series. The best one could have done would have been to replace Detroit with the Boston Red Sox, who won the 2007 World Series.
Thursday, October 18, 2012
Cutting the South?
A week ago, I read that Suffolk University was cutting operations in Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia. Now it is rumored that several PACs allied with the Obama Campaign are doing the same. Similar rumors are leaking out of Colorado as well.
If this is true, Mr. Obama is playing a dangerous game. The West Coast (78), New England (29), the Altantic Coridor (59), Illinois (20), Minnesota (10), and New Mexico (5) will net Mr. Obama 201 EVs. He is clearly expecting to hold the blue trio of Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), and Wisconsin (10), despite the Romney campaign mounting an assault on those three states. That takes him to 247. That then puts the onus of victory on four states: Ohio (18), Nevada (6), Iowa (5), and New Hampshire (4). This is not a large margin for error.
In fact, it effectivly puts the nearly the entire burden of reelection on holding Ohio. If Mr. Obama wins all the states mentioned above but loses Ohio, he only takes 262 electoral votes. If he wins Ohio, he must take either Nevada or Iowa to secure victory. A New Hampshire and Ohio only win would produce a 269-269 tie and throw things to the House where Republicans hold the majority by state allocation.
However, this is all conjecture at the moment. I highly doubt the Obama campaign, or the majority of it's PACs will openly concede either Virginia or Colorado, which are very close in the RCP standings. Conceding Florida would hurt a bit, but it would free up a large volume of resources as Florida is a very expensive media market.
Much remains to be seen over the next two and a half weeks as to how the campaigns conduct their strategies.
If this is true, Mr. Obama is playing a dangerous game. The West Coast (78), New England (29), the Altantic Coridor (59), Illinois (20), Minnesota (10), and New Mexico (5) will net Mr. Obama 201 EVs. He is clearly expecting to hold the blue trio of Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), and Wisconsin (10), despite the Romney campaign mounting an assault on those three states. That takes him to 247. That then puts the onus of victory on four states: Ohio (18), Nevada (6), Iowa (5), and New Hampshire (4). This is not a large margin for error.
In fact, it effectivly puts the nearly the entire burden of reelection on holding Ohio. If Mr. Obama wins all the states mentioned above but loses Ohio, he only takes 262 electoral votes. If he wins Ohio, he must take either Nevada or Iowa to secure victory. A New Hampshire and Ohio only win would produce a 269-269 tie and throw things to the House where Republicans hold the majority by state allocation.
However, this is all conjecture at the moment. I highly doubt the Obama campaign, or the majority of it's PACs will openly concede either Virginia or Colorado, which are very close in the RCP standings. Conceding Florida would hurt a bit, but it would free up a large volume of resources as Florida is a very expensive media market.
Much remains to be seen over the next two and a half weeks as to how the campaigns conduct their strategies.
Wednesday, October 17, 2012
Second Debate
For the third debate in the row, I opted to watch baseball instead of the candidates. Watching the Yankees go down 3 games to 0 was far more enjoyable than watching two men bicker at each other.
Still, I caught some of the post debate reaction. The general thought seems to be that it was something close to a draw. CNN's instant poll had Mr. Obama winning 37-30 with the remaining thinking it was a draw, while a CBS poll thought that Mr. Romney dominated the questions on the economy.
The big talking point coming out of this debate seems to be the reaction on the Libya incident. Mr. Romney and Mr. Obama got after each other a bit and the moderator, Ms. Crowley, seems to have interjected herself in it to cut off the debate with an instant fact check. Watching the clip, I think this was a bit of a disservice to Mr. Obama. He seemed to be holding his own at that moment in the debate and would have scored easy points for simply deflecting Mr. Romney's accusations and making him look like a bully trying to turn American dead into a political football.
The appeal to Ms. Crowley and then her statement validating the President's argument had a bit of a "running to mom" feel to it. Regardless of whether or not the facts of the argument favored Mr. Romney or Mr. Obama (and that comes with an extreme parsing of the statement Mr. Obama made in the Rose Garden), the optics of that moment didn't help Mr. Obama and will probably keep the Libya topic in the news up until the next debate.
Overall, I doubt this debate will move the needle much in one direction or the other. Mr. Obama didn't hurt himself as he did in the first debate, but neither did it seem that he did anything that seriously blunted Mr. Romney's momentum. I'm sure that there will be many polls out soon, each saying that things are either swinging back towards Mr. Obama or swinging further to Mr. Romney (and possibly both).
Twenty days to go.
Still, I caught some of the post debate reaction. The general thought seems to be that it was something close to a draw. CNN's instant poll had Mr. Obama winning 37-30 with the remaining thinking it was a draw, while a CBS poll thought that Mr. Romney dominated the questions on the economy.
The big talking point coming out of this debate seems to be the reaction on the Libya incident. Mr. Romney and Mr. Obama got after each other a bit and the moderator, Ms. Crowley, seems to have interjected herself in it to cut off the debate with an instant fact check. Watching the clip, I think this was a bit of a disservice to Mr. Obama. He seemed to be holding his own at that moment in the debate and would have scored easy points for simply deflecting Mr. Romney's accusations and making him look like a bully trying to turn American dead into a political football.
The appeal to Ms. Crowley and then her statement validating the President's argument had a bit of a "running to mom" feel to it. Regardless of whether or not the facts of the argument favored Mr. Romney or Mr. Obama (and that comes with an extreme parsing of the statement Mr. Obama made in the Rose Garden), the optics of that moment didn't help Mr. Obama and will probably keep the Libya topic in the news up until the next debate.
Overall, I doubt this debate will move the needle much in one direction or the other. Mr. Obama didn't hurt himself as he did in the first debate, but neither did it seem that he did anything that seriously blunted Mr. Romney's momentum. I'm sure that there will be many polls out soon, each saying that things are either swinging back towards Mr. Obama or swinging further to Mr. Romney (and possibly both).
Twenty days to go.
Wednesday, October 10, 2012
Confidence or Idiocy?
Suffolk University announced yesterday that they were suspending polling operations in North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida as they felt that those states were going to be won by Mr. Romney and would only waste their money.
I don't know much about Suffolk University polling but this strikes me as very, very odd. I can understand North Carolina as I've felt confident that Mr. Romney would win their easily. But Florida and especially Virgina make little sense to me. Florida has always been a bit close and even if you were confident that Mr. Romney (or Mr. Obama) were to win there, why not keep the polling going as it is a good benchmark for the overall election?
Virginia makes even less sense to me. The strong Democratic presence Northern Virginia has made the state a strong purple, counterbalancing the natural Republicanism of the rest of the state. I've seen almost no polling that has Mr. Romney outside the margin of error in Virginia and even if you attempt to correct for any perceived Democratic bias in the polls, the race is still very close. In my thinking, announcing that you are not going to poll Virginia is nearly equivalent to washing your hands of the whole election.
Suffolk University is either very confident in things they are seeing on the ground, very strapped for cash and cutting costs in large states, or very stupid.
I don't know much about Suffolk University polling but this strikes me as very, very odd. I can understand North Carolina as I've felt confident that Mr. Romney would win their easily. But Florida and especially Virgina make little sense to me. Florida has always been a bit close and even if you were confident that Mr. Romney (or Mr. Obama) were to win there, why not keep the polling going as it is a good benchmark for the overall election?
Virginia makes even less sense to me. The strong Democratic presence Northern Virginia has made the state a strong purple, counterbalancing the natural Republicanism of the rest of the state. I've seen almost no polling that has Mr. Romney outside the margin of error in Virginia and even if you attempt to correct for any perceived Democratic bias in the polls, the race is still very close. In my thinking, announcing that you are not going to poll Virginia is nearly equivalent to washing your hands of the whole election.
Suffolk University is either very confident in things they are seeing on the ground, very strapped for cash and cutting costs in large states, or very stupid.
Tuesday, October 09, 2012
Big Bird... Seriously?
Mr. Obama's team has launched a new ad attacking Mr. Romney's proposal to cut funding for PBS:
I am a bit dumbfounded that this is an actual political ad. I like Big Bird a great deal and stand opposed to the cutting of funding to PBS (although Sesame Street's merchandising sales would more than keep it afloat if that ever happened), but this seems like a very trivial thing to try and make a campaign issue.
What's more, even if you did want to make an issue out of it, this seems like a silly way to go about it. I get that it's supposed to be sarcastic and the like, but Mr. Obama would have been far better served to note the miniscule percentage of the budget that funds PBS and use that to paint a class warfare attack on how poor children must suffer to pay for tax cuts to the wealthy or something like that. This feels more like something that SNL would put out.
I am a bit dumbfounded that this is an actual political ad. I like Big Bird a great deal and stand opposed to the cutting of funding to PBS (although Sesame Street's merchandising sales would more than keep it afloat if that ever happened), but this seems like a very trivial thing to try and make a campaign issue.
What's more, even if you did want to make an issue out of it, this seems like a silly way to go about it. I get that it's supposed to be sarcastic and the like, but Mr. Obama would have been far better served to note the miniscule percentage of the budget that funds PBS and use that to paint a class warfare attack on how poor children must suffer to pay for tax cuts to the wealthy or something like that. This feels more like something that SNL would put out.
Monday, October 08, 2012
Baseball Update
So far, the playing the first two games in the lower seed cities hasn't hurt the higher seeds too much.
In the National League, the Cincinnati Reds won both games in San Francisco and will resume playing tomorrow. They'll have three chances to win one game at home and advance to the NL Championship Series. Ideally, they do it in game 3 as that will be the game that I'm at.
Meanwhile, Washington defeated St. Louis in game 1 in Busch Stadium. Game 2 starts about 4:30 EDT this afternoon
On the American League side, the NY Yankees defeated the Baltimore Orioles in game 1 of that series, after waiting out a lengthy rain delay.
The lone exception to the higher seed winning is the Oakland Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers series. Detroit won both games at home and now just have to take one game in Oakland. This takes a little added depth when you remember that the Tigers will probably have Justin Verlander going to the mound again in Game 5. No matter where you play, I give the Tigers the edge in that game.
The Championship Series (for both leagues) start this weekend. Times are not set yet but if the NY Yankees advance, expect the prime time slots to go the AL. A Baltimore victory would probably have MLB tearing their hair out with the propect of no major media market teams left. I personally, would love that.
In the National League, the Cincinnati Reds won both games in San Francisco and will resume playing tomorrow. They'll have three chances to win one game at home and advance to the NL Championship Series. Ideally, they do it in game 3 as that will be the game that I'm at.
Meanwhile, Washington defeated St. Louis in game 1 in Busch Stadium. Game 2 starts about 4:30 EDT this afternoon
On the American League side, the NY Yankees defeated the Baltimore Orioles in game 1 of that series, after waiting out a lengthy rain delay.
The lone exception to the higher seed winning is the Oakland Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers series. Detroit won both games at home and now just have to take one game in Oakland. This takes a little added depth when you remember that the Tigers will probably have Justin Verlander going to the mound again in Game 5. No matter where you play, I give the Tigers the edge in that game.
The Championship Series (for both leagues) start this weekend. Times are not set yet but if the NY Yankees advance, expect the prime time slots to go the AL. A Baltimore victory would probably have MLB tearing their hair out with the propect of no major media market teams left. I personally, would love that.
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