I stole this from my sister’s blog. I thought it might be an interesting change of pace:
1. One book that changed your life:
In a strange, convoluted way, Anne of Green Gables by LM Montgomery. I first read the book when I was in 4th grade and was interested enough that I read the entire series. I put them away after a while, but when I was in college I pulled them out again. My interest in them and the movies based on them led me to stumble on a forum devoted to the third movie, which was to be released in 2000 (it was a terrible movie, completely unlike the books). It was through this forum that I eventually met Mrs. X, which led me to move from my old job to my current job. A long string of event based off a random reading in 1987.
2. One book that you've read more than once:
I have officially lost count of the times that I have read The Hobbit by JRR Tolkien. I first read it when I was about 9 or 10 and enjoyed it so much that I have reread the book many times. In fact, the first copy I had was duct taped together for a while I had read it so much. I now have a nice hardcover edition that I pull off the shelf on occasion.
3. One book you'd want on a desert island:
In the vein of the last post, I would pick the Lord of the Rings trilogy (which they can sell as one book). It’s a very long, engaging read that should pass the time sufficiently while I wait for rescue.
4. One book that made you laugh:
I don’t read a lot of pure comedy books, although I do have a lot of comic collections. One of the few I do have is Fatherhood by Bill Cosby. A lot of things he references I’ve seen in his stand up acts and it makes for an amusing read.
5. One book that made you cry:
I don’t know that I’ve ever cried when reading a book, however, I do recall getting extremely angry while reading few books, mostly due to frustration with the character’s stupidity. Probably the one I recall the easiest is Needful Things by Stephen King. On at least one occasion, I wanted to step into the book and strangle several of the characters for acting in such a stupid fashion.
6. One book you wish had been written:
This is hard because just about every good movie or story I’ve heard has been based on a book. I’ll have to leave this one blank.
7. One book you wish had never been written:
Great Expectations by Charles Dickens. I’m no fan of Dickens under most circumstances, but I couldn’t stand this story. Days of Our Lives has had less convoluted and eyebrow raising plots.
8. One book you're currently reading:
I haven’t started it yet, but I’ve put Band of Brothers on reserve at the library. Mrs. X and I just finished watching the miniseries and I thought it might be interesting to get more details in the book.
9. One book you've been meaning to read:
There are a lot of these. One that’s been sitting by my bed for quite a while is Love and War by John Jakes. It’s the second book in the North and South series and I’ve started it twice but always put it down and never gotten back to it. Maybe later this winter I’ll pick it up and stick with it.
10. One book that has scared the crap out of you:
It didn’t exactly scare me, but I was deeply disturbed by the novella The Long Walk by Richard Bachmann (aka Stephen King). A very disturbing story about a fascist US that holds a contest where 50 young men walk continuously in competition. If you fall behind a set speed too often, you are shot. Last man standing wins a big prize. Very disturbing concept.
11. The one book that is most recommended to others by you:
Mrs. X has repeatedly recommended the Generations books. They’re a non-fiction series dealing with historical trends and patterns among the various generations and how one can use these trends to observe various sociological patterns. I keep meaning to read them but never quite get around to it.
Thursday, August 24, 2006
Thursday, August 17, 2006
The Momentary Calm
With the cease-fire between Hezbollah and Israel signed, all the religious types are starting to sit down again. I however am taking a slightly more long view. In previous posts I thought this looked like the Amos war. I still believe that, however the finishing of it may not come for another year.
Israel and Hezbollah have signed a Hunda, a temporary halt to hostilities that Muslims use to regroup and retool before launching a fresh attack whenever it suits them. Mohammed famously used this when he signed a ten-year treaty with the tribe holding Mecca after being defeated by them in battle. Mohammed returned to Medina, regrouped his army and then launched a surprise attack two years later, successfully taking Mecca. This is what Hezbollah has agreed to.
We should also remember that Israel is still fighting with Hamas in the south. That has gotten very little airtime with the war in Lebanon, but operations continue there as well, though not to the scale as in the north.
Prime Minister Olmert’s government will fall eventually but I don’t believe it will happen in the next few days as some predict. The other parties will try, but Labor and Kedima are still in tight lockstep. There will have to be some defections for a vote of no confidence to be declared. I suspect that Olmert’s government will not collapse until he tried to implement his pull out of the West Bank. That will push enough people over the edge that the government will collapse. Once the new leaders are elected (more to the right and perhaps even a stronger representation from the Orthodox parties), Iran and Syria might feel that they have no choice but to resume fighting before Israel has a chance to recover her morale and get the army back into a strong fighting force.
Either way, I’m still holding to my position that by June of next year, we will start seeing some major happenings over there. We might recall that WWII began with Germany conquering Poland in three weeks in September. Then nothing happened until Hitler launched the campaign against France in the spring. I believe this is a lull, the calm to give the Muslim armies confidence to jump in with both feet next time.
There is also supposedly the chance that Iran could do something stupid to flare things up by Tuesday (Aug 22). I’m beginning to think that Iran is backing off that date for the moment and might defer it until next year. After all, the 12th Imam has waited over 1400 years. He can wait one more year. 2007 is looking to be a banger year over there.
Israel and Hezbollah have signed a Hunda, a temporary halt to hostilities that Muslims use to regroup and retool before launching a fresh attack whenever it suits them. Mohammed famously used this when he signed a ten-year treaty with the tribe holding Mecca after being defeated by them in battle. Mohammed returned to Medina, regrouped his army and then launched a surprise attack two years later, successfully taking Mecca. This is what Hezbollah has agreed to.
We should also remember that Israel is still fighting with Hamas in the south. That has gotten very little airtime with the war in Lebanon, but operations continue there as well, though not to the scale as in the north.
Prime Minister Olmert’s government will fall eventually but I don’t believe it will happen in the next few days as some predict. The other parties will try, but Labor and Kedima are still in tight lockstep. There will have to be some defections for a vote of no confidence to be declared. I suspect that Olmert’s government will not collapse until he tried to implement his pull out of the West Bank. That will push enough people over the edge that the government will collapse. Once the new leaders are elected (more to the right and perhaps even a stronger representation from the Orthodox parties), Iran and Syria might feel that they have no choice but to resume fighting before Israel has a chance to recover her morale and get the army back into a strong fighting force.
Either way, I’m still holding to my position that by June of next year, we will start seeing some major happenings over there. We might recall that WWII began with Germany conquering Poland in three weeks in September. Then nothing happened until Hitler launched the campaign against France in the spring. I believe this is a lull, the calm to give the Muslim armies confidence to jump in with both feet next time.
There is also supposedly the chance that Iran could do something stupid to flare things up by Tuesday (Aug 22). I’m beginning to think that Iran is backing off that date for the moment and might defer it until next year. After all, the 12th Imam has waited over 1400 years. He can wait one more year. 2007 is looking to be a banger year over there.
Friday, August 11, 2006
In another Biblical doubletake, Strategypage is reporting that Ethiopia and Somalia are preparing to go to war with each other. Strategypage is predicting an Ethiopian win, however, I would caution them that Sudan might intervien on behalf of their radiacal Muslim bretherin in Somalia. If the two sides unite and push the Christian Ethiopians back, we could well have a united pan-Islamic state on the Horn of Africa. Not exactly making it the nicest place for US or Israeli interests, to say nothing of what that would mean in terms of extending ties with Iran.
I would also suggest that people keep an eye on Egypt during this time. I don't know when it will erupt, but a civil war is brewing there too. The Muslim Brotherhood is becoming increasily violent towards the government in power and I don't think it will take much for them to try and take over the government. Especially if Hamas and Hezbollah are defeated in the war with Israel. Hamas is a direct offshoot of this group and they feel that Egypt should be in the war, hitting Israel from the south as Syria and Lebanon are from the north. I give the over-under on an Egyptian civil war 3 years.
I would also suggest that people keep an eye on Egypt during this time. I don't know when it will erupt, but a civil war is brewing there too. The Muslim Brotherhood is becoming increasily violent towards the government in power and I don't think it will take much for them to try and take over the government. Especially if Hamas and Hezbollah are defeated in the war with Israel. Hamas is a direct offshoot of this group and they feel that Egypt should be in the war, hitting Israel from the south as Syria and Lebanon are from the north. I give the over-under on an Egyptian civil war 3 years.
Monday, August 07, 2006
Thoughts and Reunions
No matter how religious you are, or how much you believe in certain passages of the Bible, it is still a bit freaky to hear something on the news and have it printed directly for you in the Bible.
As I have mentioned before, I have postulated that the current war between Hezbollah/Hamas and Israel, is the opening salvo in the war mentioned in the book of Amos. This morning, I was listening to a discussion of the war and one of the commentators mentioned that according to various news reports, Hezbollah has a large array of bunkers hidden by brush scattered throughout Lebanon and Syria in a manner very similar to Japanese tactics used on Iwo Jima. The commentator noted that when the US fought the Japanese, they were forced to go into the fortified hills and burn away the brush using flame throwers before they could go in and either flush the bunkers or destroy them using air power. This is the system that Hezbollah has set up.
Now, relate this scenario as to how Israel is going to have to deal with Hezbollah to this passage in the book of Amos: “I will send fire upon the walls of Tyre that will consume her fortresses.” Most of the bunkers are in the south, arrayed in a pattern surrounding the major cities of Tyre and Beirut. If one views these bunkers as small fortresses (and I think any sensible military commander would) and knowing the methods that Israel will have to use to root them out, it does give one pause and a little bit of gooseflesh.
On a lighter note, my high school class had their 10-year reunion this past Saturday. I did not go as that would have required putting Mrs. X and Baby X (who is now three months old) in a long car ride for a party that I’m not sure I would have been that comfortable at. But the main organizer did send out a couple of pictures of those who went. Using my yearbook, I was able to successfully identify all but one person in the photo and I have a guess as to who she is (I needed the yearbook for names. Even though we only had 80 people in the class, I only went there two years and didn’t really interact with over half the class). It is amusing to see how much some people have changed and how little some others have. I was also mildly amused to see She Who Must Not Be Named there as well, especially given that she had told me on a couple of occasions that she had no interest in ever going to a High School Reunion. But, I did notice that she seems to be connected with someone again and I can only wish her the best.
As I have mentioned before, I have postulated that the current war between Hezbollah/Hamas and Israel, is the opening salvo in the war mentioned in the book of Amos. This morning, I was listening to a discussion of the war and one of the commentators mentioned that according to various news reports, Hezbollah has a large array of bunkers hidden by brush scattered throughout Lebanon and Syria in a manner very similar to Japanese tactics used on Iwo Jima. The commentator noted that when the US fought the Japanese, they were forced to go into the fortified hills and burn away the brush using flame throwers before they could go in and either flush the bunkers or destroy them using air power. This is the system that Hezbollah has set up.
Now, relate this scenario as to how Israel is going to have to deal with Hezbollah to this passage in the book of Amos: “I will send fire upon the walls of Tyre that will consume her fortresses.” Most of the bunkers are in the south, arrayed in a pattern surrounding the major cities of Tyre and Beirut. If one views these bunkers as small fortresses (and I think any sensible military commander would) and knowing the methods that Israel will have to use to root them out, it does give one pause and a little bit of gooseflesh.
On a lighter note, my high school class had their 10-year reunion this past Saturday. I did not go as that would have required putting Mrs. X and Baby X (who is now three months old) in a long car ride for a party that I’m not sure I would have been that comfortable at. But the main organizer did send out a couple of pictures of those who went. Using my yearbook, I was able to successfully identify all but one person in the photo and I have a guess as to who she is (I needed the yearbook for names. Even though we only had 80 people in the class, I only went there two years and didn’t really interact with over half the class). It is amusing to see how much some people have changed and how little some others have. I was also mildly amused to see She Who Must Not Be Named there as well, especially given that she had told me on a couple of occasions that she had no interest in ever going to a High School Reunion. But, I did notice that she seems to be connected with someone again and I can only wish her the best.
Thursday, August 03, 2006
Lieberman's Window
Several months ago, if you had said that Joe Lieberman was going to lose the Democratic nomination for Senate, most people would have laughed at you. But now that looks like it’s going to be the case. Ned Lamont leads Joe Lieberman 54-41 in the latest poll of likely Democratic primary voters.
Most people will talk about other symptoms, but I think this is another example of God forcing his people back to Israel. I know George Bush is a lightning rod of hate on the Left by now, but how could a single issue candidate (the war in Iraq) defeat a man who is more liberal than the Minority Leader of the Senate (Harry Reid – NV). Yet that is exactly what is happening. Lieberman will push ahead and run as an independent and that will most likely have two results. Lamont will win anyway because enough Connecticut voters will knee jerk vote for the guy with the “D” next to his name, or Lieberman will steal enough votes from Lamont and the independents that the Republican challenger will win in a bizarre 35-32-33 race. Especially if the second option happens, Lieberman will be hounded out of Democratic politics.
Now, despite what most of the world thinks, I think the current conflict in Israel will last quite a while, perhaps as long as a year or more. More countries will get dragged into it and as Israel’s methods get harsher in trying to secure peace, animosity towards Jews will increase around the world. I saw on the news last night a report from a group of Jewish teenagers who had been in Israel when the fighting started and despite the need for security, all they talked about was how much they loved the country and couldn’t wait to go back.
I believe that a majority of the Jewish people in the world have a secret love of the home country buried within them and I think that as anti-Semitism grows over the next couple of years, we will see a significant migration back to Israel. So, it really wouldn’t surprise me if we hear in 2010 that Joe Lieberman has been appointed as Israel’s ambassador to the United States or even to a higher office. God may be shutting the Senate door to open the Israeli window for Mr. Lieberman.
Most people will talk about other symptoms, but I think this is another example of God forcing his people back to Israel. I know George Bush is a lightning rod of hate on the Left by now, but how could a single issue candidate (the war in Iraq) defeat a man who is more liberal than the Minority Leader of the Senate (Harry Reid – NV). Yet that is exactly what is happening. Lieberman will push ahead and run as an independent and that will most likely have two results. Lamont will win anyway because enough Connecticut voters will knee jerk vote for the guy with the “D” next to his name, or Lieberman will steal enough votes from Lamont and the independents that the Republican challenger will win in a bizarre 35-32-33 race. Especially if the second option happens, Lieberman will be hounded out of Democratic politics.
Now, despite what most of the world thinks, I think the current conflict in Israel will last quite a while, perhaps as long as a year or more. More countries will get dragged into it and as Israel’s methods get harsher in trying to secure peace, animosity towards Jews will increase around the world. I saw on the news last night a report from a group of Jewish teenagers who had been in Israel when the fighting started and despite the need for security, all they talked about was how much they loved the country and couldn’t wait to go back.
I believe that a majority of the Jewish people in the world have a secret love of the home country buried within them and I think that as anti-Semitism grows over the next couple of years, we will see a significant migration back to Israel. So, it really wouldn’t surprise me if we hear in 2010 that Joe Lieberman has been appointed as Israel’s ambassador to the United States or even to a higher office. God may be shutting the Senate door to open the Israeli window for Mr. Lieberman.
Monday, July 24, 2006
Presidential Candidates
I was discussing with a co-worker about the chaos that will reign in American politics in the near future with no clear front-runners on either side. For some reference, I’m putting together a list that we can all look back on and try to determine who came out of where once we have left the Bush II era behind.
Democrats:
1) Hillary Clinton – Sen. (NY). Presumed front-runner, although much debate as to whether she could win the general election.
2) John Kerry – 2004 candidate. Still strong, although still plagued by same weaknesses of 2004 campaign.
3) John Edwards – 2004 VP candidate. Came close to winning the 2004 nomination. Has been circulating himself well and storm to the front of the pack with a win in Iowa
4) Russ Feingold – Sen. (WI). Far Left candidate and will appeal to hard core Deaniacs. Probably not strong enough to get nomination, but could seriously affect the outcome of the nomination.
5) Mark Warner – Ex-Gov. (VA). Recently retired governor has a large war chest and is reasonably well liked in the South. More moderate than Edwards, he could win if the Democrats embrace a Bill Clinton type compromise candidate.
6) Christopher Dodd – Sen. (CT). Minor candidate. Probably will drop out after New Hampshire primary.
7) Joseph Biden – Sen. (DE). Minor candidate. Might be forced to drop out prior to any primaries due to tendency to place his foot in his mouth.
8) Bill Richardson – Gov (NM). A strong Hispanic candidate and former Clinton era cabinet official. Richardson has had fluctuating popularity and is probably far behind in money collected, but he could be a very viable candidate if immigration becomes the touchstone of 2008.
9) Al Gore? – Gore has denied that he is running, although if the Democrats fail to capitalize on the opportunities in 2006, he may enter the ring to try and rescue the party.
Republicans:
1) John McCain – Sen. (AZ). McCain never stopped running in 2000. While popular with the Media and some moderates, McCain’s love of first amendment regulation has angered the base. He may not be able to sway enough of the base to secure the nomination, although he could probably peel enough Democrats to win the general election.
2) Rudy Guliani – Ex-Mayor (NY). Rudy has yet to declare himself, but he is widely expected to dip his toe into the waters soon. His socially liberal positions don’t sit well with some in the base, but many love his direct and powerful leadership style. He could be a strong spoiler if he chose to enter (read: potential VP candidate)
3) William Frist – Sen. (TN). Frist is abandoning the Senate to devote his full attention to running for President. His record in the Senate is rather wishy-washy and he has watery personality, but he might appeal to Southerners. He would actually be better served to run for governor of Tennessee, where he is very popular, and get some legislative muscle under his belt before running for President.
4) Mitt Romney – Gov. (MA). Romney is socially liberal but conservative economically. He has done well in the heavily Democratic Massachusetts and it could springboard him forward. However, there has been some question as to whether the Christian Coalition will rally behind a Mormon candidate. This could hurt Romney in the Bible-Belt states.
5) Newt Gingrich – Ex-Congressmen (GA). Newt has resurrected himself from the ashes, decrying the spending and foreign policies of the current administration. He still carries a lot of baggage and will probably not do well outside of some Southern states unless Congressional malfeasance and pork become the center of the debate.
6) Sam Brownback – Sen. (KS). A minor candidate who will appeal to the conservative Christian Coalition. He might stir here and there, but it not a real threat to get the nomination.
7) George Allen – Sen. (VA). Economically conservative and socially more conservative than most of his rivals, Allen could carry himself far if he could find a way to distinguish himself. However, he is the candidate most in the Bush mold at the moment and even Republicans are getting tired of the Bush mold.
8) Mike Huckabee – Gov. (AR). Another undeclared candidate, but one of the few Washington outsiders that might make a good run. Conservative both economically and socially, Huckabee could claim knowledge of how to efficiently run a government as he has overseen a successful economic recovery in Arkansas.
9) Rick Perry – Gov. (TX). Bush’s former Lt. Governor who has become more popular in Texas than Bush was. Perry could bring many of the same qualities as Huckabee to the table, but he will become strongest if illegal immigration comes to the fore again as his policies of border enforcement have been reasonably popular throughout the Southwest.
I’m sure there are others that I have forgotten, but I think these 18 represent the largest runners in the field at this particular time.
Democrats:
1) Hillary Clinton – Sen. (NY). Presumed front-runner, although much debate as to whether she could win the general election.
2) John Kerry – 2004 candidate. Still strong, although still plagued by same weaknesses of 2004 campaign.
3) John Edwards – 2004 VP candidate. Came close to winning the 2004 nomination. Has been circulating himself well and storm to the front of the pack with a win in Iowa
4) Russ Feingold – Sen. (WI). Far Left candidate and will appeal to hard core Deaniacs. Probably not strong enough to get nomination, but could seriously affect the outcome of the nomination.
5) Mark Warner – Ex-Gov. (VA). Recently retired governor has a large war chest and is reasonably well liked in the South. More moderate than Edwards, he could win if the Democrats embrace a Bill Clinton type compromise candidate.
6) Christopher Dodd – Sen. (CT). Minor candidate. Probably will drop out after New Hampshire primary.
7) Joseph Biden – Sen. (DE). Minor candidate. Might be forced to drop out prior to any primaries due to tendency to place his foot in his mouth.
8) Bill Richardson – Gov (NM). A strong Hispanic candidate and former Clinton era cabinet official. Richardson has had fluctuating popularity and is probably far behind in money collected, but he could be a very viable candidate if immigration becomes the touchstone of 2008.
9) Al Gore? – Gore has denied that he is running, although if the Democrats fail to capitalize on the opportunities in 2006, he may enter the ring to try and rescue the party.
Republicans:
1) John McCain – Sen. (AZ). McCain never stopped running in 2000. While popular with the Media and some moderates, McCain’s love of first amendment regulation has angered the base. He may not be able to sway enough of the base to secure the nomination, although he could probably peel enough Democrats to win the general election.
2) Rudy Guliani – Ex-Mayor (NY). Rudy has yet to declare himself, but he is widely expected to dip his toe into the waters soon. His socially liberal positions don’t sit well with some in the base, but many love his direct and powerful leadership style. He could be a strong spoiler if he chose to enter (read: potential VP candidate)
3) William Frist – Sen. (TN). Frist is abandoning the Senate to devote his full attention to running for President. His record in the Senate is rather wishy-washy and he has watery personality, but he might appeal to Southerners. He would actually be better served to run for governor of Tennessee, where he is very popular, and get some legislative muscle under his belt before running for President.
4) Mitt Romney – Gov. (MA). Romney is socially liberal but conservative economically. He has done well in the heavily Democratic Massachusetts and it could springboard him forward. However, there has been some question as to whether the Christian Coalition will rally behind a Mormon candidate. This could hurt Romney in the Bible-Belt states.
5) Newt Gingrich – Ex-Congressmen (GA). Newt has resurrected himself from the ashes, decrying the spending and foreign policies of the current administration. He still carries a lot of baggage and will probably not do well outside of some Southern states unless Congressional malfeasance and pork become the center of the debate.
6) Sam Brownback – Sen. (KS). A minor candidate who will appeal to the conservative Christian Coalition. He might stir here and there, but it not a real threat to get the nomination.
7) George Allen – Sen. (VA). Economically conservative and socially more conservative than most of his rivals, Allen could carry himself far if he could find a way to distinguish himself. However, he is the candidate most in the Bush mold at the moment and even Republicans are getting tired of the Bush mold.
8) Mike Huckabee – Gov. (AR). Another undeclared candidate, but one of the few Washington outsiders that might make a good run. Conservative both economically and socially, Huckabee could claim knowledge of how to efficiently run a government as he has overseen a successful economic recovery in Arkansas.
9) Rick Perry – Gov. (TX). Bush’s former Lt. Governor who has become more popular in Texas than Bush was. Perry could bring many of the same qualities as Huckabee to the table, but he will become strongest if illegal immigration comes to the fore again as his policies of border enforcement have been reasonably popular throughout the Southwest.
I’m sure there are others that I have forgotten, but I think these 18 represent the largest runners in the field at this particular time.
Friday, July 21, 2006
Waiting for Ezekiel
As I am nearly finished with the Left Behind books (at least the main series) I can understand some of the fervent desire among many that the war in Israel is the beginning of the War of Gog, which many Christians believe is the last major event before the Rapture and the Tribulation. However, it always bothers me when people allow their desires to cloud their judgment. A simple examination of the nature of the prophecy gives an excellent indication that not only is this not the beginning of the war, but that we still have a ways to go before we get to that point.
The thing that drives people the most is the knowledge that Russia and Iran have recently formed a strategic alliance. As Russia and Iran are mentioned as the primary players in the war, it’s easy to get carried away and think that they are the singular forces. However, we forget that there are several other prominent members of the alliance: Turkey (Gomer, Beth Togarmah), Libya (Put), and Cush (modern Sudan and Ethiopia). Libya has been cowed as of late to almost a non-entity, Sudan and Ethiopia are in the midst of civil wars and steadily becoming radical Islamic states (similar to Taliban Afghanistan), and Turkey is still a predominantly secular state, worried more about smoothing things over and becoming a member of the EU than anything else. Even Russia herself has no geopolitical reason to launch a massive invasion of Israel at the moment. She is still concerned in getting influence through proxies like Syria (with whom Russia recently signed a large military contract with). None of these countries (with the exception of Iran) is any position to band up and launch a massive ground invasion of Israel at the moment.
A second flaw is the geographic nature of Israel at the time of the invasion. Ezekiel 38:8 notes that the Jews have regathered into the land and have settled to the mountains of Israel. Israel is rather hilly country but the “mountains of Israel”, as often quoted in scripture, specifically refer to the territory of Ephraim and Benjamin. This region is currently under the dominion of the Palestinians under the name of the West Bank. Israel has not even fully received her inheritance of the land yet. What’s more, the Jews themselves have not even fully regathered to Israel yet. The total Jewish population of New York is still greater than the Jewish population of Israel. I myself don’t believe that we have fully seen the fulfillment of the prophecy of the Valley of Dry Bones (Ezekiel 37:1-14). If we are still in the works on that prophecy, how can we even hope to be ready to move on to Ezekiel 38 and 39?
A third point is the state of Israel’s affairs. At the time of the attack, Israel lives at peace and in a land of unwalled villages. Many scholars have tried to argue that Israel has been more at peace than any other time in her history starting in the late 80s. Yet they have been undergoing continuous suicide attacks from the Palestinians and numerous raids and harassment from Hezbollah. The DMZ of the Golan Heights is one of the most armed places in the world and Israel is in the process of building a large wall around her territory, especially in the region of Jerusalem. At no point would any person living in Israel stand up and say that they are living in a state of peace and safety.
Yet, I am not willing to say that we are not seeing prophecy fulfilled. I have no major rationalization for my feeling, but as I have alluded to in previous posts, I believe this new war could be the fulfillment of the prophecies of Amos and could spill over to some of the prophecies of Isaiah. Notable in their absence among the invaders in the War of Gog, are all the immediate neighbors of Israel. Yet all of these (with the exception of Egypt) are mentioned in Amos. The first two chapters of Amos imply that all the nations surrounding Israel have committed three major sins and that the fourth sin will bring about the judgment of God. Damascus (Syria) will be consumed with fire; Gaza (the Philistines aka the Palestinians) will be wiped out; Tyre (southern Lebanon) will have her military destroyed; Edom, Moab, and Ammon (Jordan) will be overrun and destroyed.
Israel has endured three major wars with Syrian and Jordan (1948, 1967, and 1973). The Palestinians formed themselves as a military force through the PLO in 1964, but did not directly assault Israel until the 1970’s, choosing instead to act through small (but highly visible) terrorist attacks. They attacked Israel in the Lebanese Civil War (1982) and have brought about armed uprisings through the First and Second Intafadas (1987, 2000). Lebanon has existed predominantly as a Syrian and PLO proxy through her wars with Israel. She existed as a staging area for PLO and Hezbollah attacks against Israel in the 1973 war and fought against Israel when she was forced to invade in both 1978 and 1982. Only through Israeli occupation (which ended in 2000) has southern Lebanon managed to gain any form of stability. With the withdrawal of Israeli forces six years ago, Hezbollah have entrenched themselves and will not be driven out quietly.
Now, could I be wrong? Sure. Scripture never mentions the influence of Persia on affairs during this war (and everyone knows Iran is involved in this one). What’s more, Syria and Jordan are not directly involved in the current war (although Syria is funneling weapons to Hezbollah). Israel may beat down Hezbollah and Hamas and then turn back leaving things unresolved. But my gut tells me that things are not going that way. Israel is not going to stop until they are satisfied that they will be left alone and that just won’t happen until Hezbollah and Hamas (indeed, all of the Palestinian groups) are destroyed.
I believe that the war will continue and eventually Syria will be dragged into it, if only to protect their proxy interests in the form of Hezbollah. I don’t know what could bring Jordan into the fight, unless there is a successful coup against King Abdullah II. If his (and most of his government’s) influence were removed, most of the Jordanian people would immediately rush to support a Palestinian war effort against Israel. Perhaps a military coup will occur, under the auspices of Hamas. Yasser Arafat tried to overthrow King Abdullah I many years ago and failed. Perhaps a second stab at things will succeed. Once all her neighbors are against her Israel may be forced to turn to unconventional weapons, which will bring loud condemnation from the world. But if they are successful and Israel claims the land of Syria, Jordan, and the occupied territories, and then signs a security pact with the liberated government of Lebanon, Israel could well be on her way to securing a land of peace, untroubled by fears of attack. Then I believe we can enter into discussions about the invasion of Gog.
The thing that drives people the most is the knowledge that Russia and Iran have recently formed a strategic alliance. As Russia and Iran are mentioned as the primary players in the war, it’s easy to get carried away and think that they are the singular forces. However, we forget that there are several other prominent members of the alliance: Turkey (Gomer, Beth Togarmah), Libya (Put), and Cush (modern Sudan and Ethiopia). Libya has been cowed as of late to almost a non-entity, Sudan and Ethiopia are in the midst of civil wars and steadily becoming radical Islamic states (similar to Taliban Afghanistan), and Turkey is still a predominantly secular state, worried more about smoothing things over and becoming a member of the EU than anything else. Even Russia herself has no geopolitical reason to launch a massive invasion of Israel at the moment. She is still concerned in getting influence through proxies like Syria (with whom Russia recently signed a large military contract with). None of these countries (with the exception of Iran) is any position to band up and launch a massive ground invasion of Israel at the moment.
A second flaw is the geographic nature of Israel at the time of the invasion. Ezekiel 38:8 notes that the Jews have regathered into the land and have settled to the mountains of Israel. Israel is rather hilly country but the “mountains of Israel”, as often quoted in scripture, specifically refer to the territory of Ephraim and Benjamin. This region is currently under the dominion of the Palestinians under the name of the West Bank. Israel has not even fully received her inheritance of the land yet. What’s more, the Jews themselves have not even fully regathered to Israel yet. The total Jewish population of New York is still greater than the Jewish population of Israel. I myself don’t believe that we have fully seen the fulfillment of the prophecy of the Valley of Dry Bones (Ezekiel 37:1-14). If we are still in the works on that prophecy, how can we even hope to be ready to move on to Ezekiel 38 and 39?
A third point is the state of Israel’s affairs. At the time of the attack, Israel lives at peace and in a land of unwalled villages. Many scholars have tried to argue that Israel has been more at peace than any other time in her history starting in the late 80s. Yet they have been undergoing continuous suicide attacks from the Palestinians and numerous raids and harassment from Hezbollah. The DMZ of the Golan Heights is one of the most armed places in the world and Israel is in the process of building a large wall around her territory, especially in the region of Jerusalem. At no point would any person living in Israel stand up and say that they are living in a state of peace and safety.
Yet, I am not willing to say that we are not seeing prophecy fulfilled. I have no major rationalization for my feeling, but as I have alluded to in previous posts, I believe this new war could be the fulfillment of the prophecies of Amos and could spill over to some of the prophecies of Isaiah. Notable in their absence among the invaders in the War of Gog, are all the immediate neighbors of Israel. Yet all of these (with the exception of Egypt) are mentioned in Amos. The first two chapters of Amos imply that all the nations surrounding Israel have committed three major sins and that the fourth sin will bring about the judgment of God. Damascus (Syria) will be consumed with fire; Gaza (the Philistines aka the Palestinians) will be wiped out; Tyre (southern Lebanon) will have her military destroyed; Edom, Moab, and Ammon (Jordan) will be overrun and destroyed.
Israel has endured three major wars with Syrian and Jordan (1948, 1967, and 1973). The Palestinians formed themselves as a military force through the PLO in 1964, but did not directly assault Israel until the 1970’s, choosing instead to act through small (but highly visible) terrorist attacks. They attacked Israel in the Lebanese Civil War (1982) and have brought about armed uprisings through the First and Second Intafadas (1987, 2000). Lebanon has existed predominantly as a Syrian and PLO proxy through her wars with Israel. She existed as a staging area for PLO and Hezbollah attacks against Israel in the 1973 war and fought against Israel when she was forced to invade in both 1978 and 1982. Only through Israeli occupation (which ended in 2000) has southern Lebanon managed to gain any form of stability. With the withdrawal of Israeli forces six years ago, Hezbollah have entrenched themselves and will not be driven out quietly.
Now, could I be wrong? Sure. Scripture never mentions the influence of Persia on affairs during this war (and everyone knows Iran is involved in this one). What’s more, Syria and Jordan are not directly involved in the current war (although Syria is funneling weapons to Hezbollah). Israel may beat down Hezbollah and Hamas and then turn back leaving things unresolved. But my gut tells me that things are not going that way. Israel is not going to stop until they are satisfied that they will be left alone and that just won’t happen until Hezbollah and Hamas (indeed, all of the Palestinian groups) are destroyed.
I believe that the war will continue and eventually Syria will be dragged into it, if only to protect their proxy interests in the form of Hezbollah. I don’t know what could bring Jordan into the fight, unless there is a successful coup against King Abdullah II. If his (and most of his government’s) influence were removed, most of the Jordanian people would immediately rush to support a Palestinian war effort against Israel. Perhaps a military coup will occur, under the auspices of Hamas. Yasser Arafat tried to overthrow King Abdullah I many years ago and failed. Perhaps a second stab at things will succeed. Once all her neighbors are against her Israel may be forced to turn to unconventional weapons, which will bring loud condemnation from the world. But if they are successful and Israel claims the land of Syria, Jordan, and the occupied territories, and then signs a security pact with the liberated government of Lebanon, Israel could well be on her way to securing a land of peace, untroubled by fears of attack. Then I believe we can enter into discussions about the invasion of Gog.
Wednesday, July 19, 2006
Iran's Plans
Someone made an interesting comment on the blog lgf the other day that got me thinking. This person noted that the President of Iran, Ahmadinejad, sent President Bush a letter a little while back encouraging him to convert to Islam. There was something in the letter about having 90 days to think about it. The 90 days expire on August 8. Then, Iran has stated that they will respond to the West’s proposals on their nuclear program on August 22.
Now, someone looked through and noted that August 22 corresponds to the end of the Islamic month and that there is something regarding this month and the supposed return of the 12th Imam. Ahmadinejad is well known to be a great believer in this prophecy and believes that the event is imminent. I believe he even gave a speech (maybe his UN speech) where he announced that it would happen within 2 years. Then, there was another speech he gave yesterday where he announced that there would be great rejoicing among the Muslim community very soon.
This has led some to speculate that the Iranians are planning something big. The 12th Imam is supposed to return in the midst of worldwide chaos and war. He will rally the Muslims to him and then proceed to conquer the world. I don’t believe the Iranians thought that Israel would respond in such an aggressive manner to their proxy Hezbollah’s actions and they are now backpedaling. The Iranians are probably trying very hard to move up the timetable of whatever it is they were planning in the first place. I would suspect that it might heavily involve Syria and possibly Jordan though.
Iran has a sizable and reasonably well-trained army, but their air force leaves something to be desired. If they tried to push through any part of Iraq towards Israel, they would meet a nasty obstacle in the US Army, even if it were caught flat-footed by the sudden launching of an invasion force. Plus, the shortest route would be through northern Iraq and the Kurds would play havoc with the Iranian supply lines, to say nothing of what the American Air Force would do. So, we can put things to bed regarding the Iranian army moving against Israel. They might come out and try and hit the US Army, but I think the bulk of their might would be used in supplies that they have funneled into Syria. Syria could try for a lightning strike with WMDs and a ground force. If Jordan got in, and I’m still not sure how they would do it without a coup-de-tat, that would put two conventional armies striking towards the center of Israel while the majority of Israel’s army was spread to the two wings of the country. This could force Israel into using non-conventional weapons and it would certainly trigger the chaos that Ahmadinejad desires, although I have my doubts about the appearance of the 12th Imam.
Either way, I suspect that Iran will be throwing a gas balloon on this fire in the next two to four weeks. Something to watch for.
Now, someone looked through and noted that August 22 corresponds to the end of the Islamic month and that there is something regarding this month and the supposed return of the 12th Imam. Ahmadinejad is well known to be a great believer in this prophecy and believes that the event is imminent. I believe he even gave a speech (maybe his UN speech) where he announced that it would happen within 2 years. Then, there was another speech he gave yesterday where he announced that there would be great rejoicing among the Muslim community very soon.
This has led some to speculate that the Iranians are planning something big. The 12th Imam is supposed to return in the midst of worldwide chaos and war. He will rally the Muslims to him and then proceed to conquer the world. I don’t believe the Iranians thought that Israel would respond in such an aggressive manner to their proxy Hezbollah’s actions and they are now backpedaling. The Iranians are probably trying very hard to move up the timetable of whatever it is they were planning in the first place. I would suspect that it might heavily involve Syria and possibly Jordan though.
Iran has a sizable and reasonably well-trained army, but their air force leaves something to be desired. If they tried to push through any part of Iraq towards Israel, they would meet a nasty obstacle in the US Army, even if it were caught flat-footed by the sudden launching of an invasion force. Plus, the shortest route would be through northern Iraq and the Kurds would play havoc with the Iranian supply lines, to say nothing of what the American Air Force would do. So, we can put things to bed regarding the Iranian army moving against Israel. They might come out and try and hit the US Army, but I think the bulk of their might would be used in supplies that they have funneled into Syria. Syria could try for a lightning strike with WMDs and a ground force. If Jordan got in, and I’m still not sure how they would do it without a coup-de-tat, that would put two conventional armies striking towards the center of Israel while the majority of Israel’s army was spread to the two wings of the country. This could force Israel into using non-conventional weapons and it would certainly trigger the chaos that Ahmadinejad desires, although I have my doubts about the appearance of the 12th Imam.
Either way, I suspect that Iran will be throwing a gas balloon on this fire in the next two to four weeks. Something to watch for.
Thursday, July 13, 2006
References
Just a quick thought by me that I mentioned during our Bible study today. If you want a possibility as to where the current hostilities in Israel are leading, read Amos 1-2 and Isaiah 17. There might be a couple of other chapters that are relevant, but I think these cover the basics. Of course, I could be way off base and things get resolved nicely. But I've got something tickling the back of my brain on this one.
Just a hunch.
Just a hunch.
Wednesday, July 12, 2006
Two Fronts
Two down, two to go. This morning, Israeli troops crossed the border into Lebanon (or at least the part controlled by Hezbollah). At this point, Israel is now at war with two of her immediate four regional neighbors. Or if you would like to view it in historical Biblical terms: Israel is now at war with the Philistines and Tyre and Sidon.
Israel is currently not at war with anyone over in the West Bank, which is still nominally under the control of Fatah. However, Israeli forces are fairly concentrated there and only an invasion by Jordan would really ignite a conflict there and Jordan’s government is still pro-West (and therefore willing to ignore Israel at the moment).
Israel is also technically not a war with Syria yet. However, as Hezbollah receives the majority of its support from Syria (with weapons and support via Iran) it is probably only a matter of time before Syria feels compelled to declare war as well. That will be when the proverbial poop hits the fan. Unlike the terrorist organizations, Syria has a conventional army and air force. They also may have a large supply of chemical weapons, whether developed on their own or from Iraq, which could be loaded onto scud missiles (of which Syria has a lot).
Syria may bide her time a little bit to see how the incursion into Lebanon goes. Their first desire is to reclaim Lebanon as a territory, which they lost last year in the Cedar Revolution. Anything that allows them to reestablish themselves as a regional power will take priority first. I still believe that Syria believes they must act in a complete surprise attack with overwhelming firepower to even have a prayer of defeating Israel. I also believe that such an attack would fail and if Syria chose to use chemical weapons, Israel would respond by turning Damascus into a glass parking lot.
The storm clouds of war are getting darker and thicker.
Israel is currently not at war with anyone over in the West Bank, which is still nominally under the control of Fatah. However, Israeli forces are fairly concentrated there and only an invasion by Jordan would really ignite a conflict there and Jordan’s government is still pro-West (and therefore willing to ignore Israel at the moment).
Israel is also technically not a war with Syria yet. However, as Hezbollah receives the majority of its support from Syria (with weapons and support via Iran) it is probably only a matter of time before Syria feels compelled to declare war as well. That will be when the proverbial poop hits the fan. Unlike the terrorist organizations, Syria has a conventional army and air force. They also may have a large supply of chemical weapons, whether developed on their own or from Iraq, which could be loaded onto scud missiles (of which Syria has a lot).
Syria may bide her time a little bit to see how the incursion into Lebanon goes. Their first desire is to reclaim Lebanon as a territory, which they lost last year in the Cedar Revolution. Anything that allows them to reestablish themselves as a regional power will take priority first. I still believe that Syria believes they must act in a complete surprise attack with overwhelming firepower to even have a prayer of defeating Israel. I also believe that such an attack would fail and if Syria chose to use chemical weapons, Israel would respond by turning Damascus into a glass parking lot.
The storm clouds of war are getting darker and thicker.
Thursday, June 29, 2006
Israel Realizes It's at War
For one brief moment, it appears that Israel has finally realized that they’ve been at war for the past several years. Yesterday, Israel invaded Gaza in response to a Palestinian raid into Israel that killed two soldiers and kidnapped a third (never mind the hundreds of homemade rockets that Hamas lobs into Israeli towns). Meanwhile, the Palestinians are crying foul for Israel finally acting like any sovereign nation would when they are attacked by a foreign power.
If a company from the Mexican Army drove over the border and killed national guardsmen in Arizona and took hostages back to Mexico and had fellow Mexican companies firing rockets into the adjoining towns in Arizona, I don’t image that the Federal government’s response would be to say everything is okay and let’s talk. It would probably be a race to see if a portion of the US Army or the rest of the Arizona National Guard invaded Mexico first. Given our previous experience with Mexico, I’m not sure we would stop until we had Mexico City at full surrender and then we would demand concessions (most likely Mexican territory).
Yet in all this, the rest of the world acts as though Israel is the warmonger and the Palestinians are these weak, helpless individuals that never did anything wrong. Its very sad and also very insulting to treat an adult population that is fully capable of making its own decisions like two-year olds. The Palestinian people, fully cognizant of their actions, elected a terrorist group to be their government and elements of that government have committed acts of war on a country that this same government refuses even the right to exist. Israel is fully justified in whatever force they chose to use to get their soldier back.
In fact, I fully believe that there will be a time in the near future where the light bulb will go on in the minds of the Israelis and when they go to war again, they will not stop with attacking Hamas elements. They will not even stop with occupying Gaza and Judah. They will physically expel the Palestinians, forcing them out to Iran, Egypt, Iraq, and any other country that will take them. Of course the world will scream about the barbarity of this act and anti-Semitism will reach a fever pitch around the world (even in havens like the US and Australia), forcing an even greater exodus of Jews to Israel. Of course, Israel will have all this new land to colonize, so they’ll have lots of room for the refugees.
Crisis is coming and it is coming by a people finally picking themselves off the mat and just saying “enough.”
If a company from the Mexican Army drove over the border and killed national guardsmen in Arizona and took hostages back to Mexico and had fellow Mexican companies firing rockets into the adjoining towns in Arizona, I don’t image that the Federal government’s response would be to say everything is okay and let’s talk. It would probably be a race to see if a portion of the US Army or the rest of the Arizona National Guard invaded Mexico first. Given our previous experience with Mexico, I’m not sure we would stop until we had Mexico City at full surrender and then we would demand concessions (most likely Mexican territory).
Yet in all this, the rest of the world acts as though Israel is the warmonger and the Palestinians are these weak, helpless individuals that never did anything wrong. Its very sad and also very insulting to treat an adult population that is fully capable of making its own decisions like two-year olds. The Palestinian people, fully cognizant of their actions, elected a terrorist group to be their government and elements of that government have committed acts of war on a country that this same government refuses even the right to exist. Israel is fully justified in whatever force they chose to use to get their soldier back.
In fact, I fully believe that there will be a time in the near future where the light bulb will go on in the minds of the Israelis and when they go to war again, they will not stop with attacking Hamas elements. They will not even stop with occupying Gaza and Judah. They will physically expel the Palestinians, forcing them out to Iran, Egypt, Iraq, and any other country that will take them. Of course the world will scream about the barbarity of this act and anti-Semitism will reach a fever pitch around the world (even in havens like the US and Australia), forcing an even greater exodus of Jews to Israel. Of course, Israel will have all this new land to colonize, so they’ll have lots of room for the refugees.
Crisis is coming and it is coming by a people finally picking themselves off the mat and just saying “enough.”
Friday, June 23, 2006
Waiting for the End
I’ve been reading the Left Behind series lately. It’s actually been pretty good with a fairly well engaging plot. It’s a little preachy but I think that’s hard to avoid given the subject matter. I’m on the sixth book right now and I think I have a good chance of polishing that off by this weekend. But reading this series and some of the other things that I’ve noticed while reading my blogs amuse me with how much people are hoping/expecting for the end of man’s dominion of Earth.
Of course, Christians have been doing that for a long time, but it seems that the whole society has been even twitchier about it for nearly 15 years now. I would place the principle portion of blame on three distinct events. The first is the refounding of Israel in 1948. The second is the calculations of Bishop Usher, in which he calculated that God created the Earth in 4004 BC. The third is a book published by Hal Lindsey called The Late, Great Planet Earth that postulated that the rapture would occur in 1988. Obviously, Mr. Lindsey was incorrect, but that began stirring up a lot of things.
People began to note things like President Bush (the first) talking about a New World Order and an alliance of nations. The various religions of the world began having discussions with each other in the Council of Churches. New Age thought began hitting mainstream. People began to sit up and take notice of them and there was a natural Christian blowback.
I remember another book that was published discussing the possible end in 1994. Although, surprisingly, there was very little discussion about it in 1997, which would have been the actual year 6000 if Bishop Usher’s chronology had been correct. Then there was all the hype around the year 2000, plus the recent publishing of both the Left Behind series and Joel Rosenberg’s Ezekiel series (Rosenberg has interesting insight, but his narrative style is a bit tedious for me).
As I have stated in earlier posts, I think additional events happening in Israel and around other areas of the Middle East are going to continue to feed into this trend and End Times predictions. There might even be a non-Christian tie in, as we get closer to the end of 2012 (which is where the Mayan calendar stops). But, in the end, I think all these events will pass and nothing will happen. I personally believe that the rapture and the return of Christ is still quite a few years away and that everything will happen when people are least expecting it. Not that I wouldn’t mind being wrong, but quite frankly, there is too much in the Bible talking about how things will happen when we are least expecting it (and least prepared for it).
Of course, Christians have been doing that for a long time, but it seems that the whole society has been even twitchier about it for nearly 15 years now. I would place the principle portion of blame on three distinct events. The first is the refounding of Israel in 1948. The second is the calculations of Bishop Usher, in which he calculated that God created the Earth in 4004 BC. The third is a book published by Hal Lindsey called The Late, Great Planet Earth that postulated that the rapture would occur in 1988. Obviously, Mr. Lindsey was incorrect, but that began stirring up a lot of things.
People began to note things like President Bush (the first) talking about a New World Order and an alliance of nations. The various religions of the world began having discussions with each other in the Council of Churches. New Age thought began hitting mainstream. People began to sit up and take notice of them and there was a natural Christian blowback.
I remember another book that was published discussing the possible end in 1994. Although, surprisingly, there was very little discussion about it in 1997, which would have been the actual year 6000 if Bishop Usher’s chronology had been correct. Then there was all the hype around the year 2000, plus the recent publishing of both the Left Behind series and Joel Rosenberg’s Ezekiel series (Rosenberg has interesting insight, but his narrative style is a bit tedious for me).
As I have stated in earlier posts, I think additional events happening in Israel and around other areas of the Middle East are going to continue to feed into this trend and End Times predictions. There might even be a non-Christian tie in, as we get closer to the end of 2012 (which is where the Mayan calendar stops). But, in the end, I think all these events will pass and nothing will happen. I personally believe that the rapture and the return of Christ is still quite a few years away and that everything will happen when people are least expecting it. Not that I wouldn’t mind being wrong, but quite frankly, there is too much in the Bible talking about how things will happen when we are least expecting it (and least prepared for it).
Wednesday, June 07, 2006
Ohio Confusion
I recently read a post on Real Clear Politics that accused RFK Jr. of reviving the Democratic shriek of how Ohio was stolen in 2004 to discredit Ken Blackwell, who is now running for Governor. If this truly is what was on RFK Jr.'s mind, or any other outside Democratic operatives mind, they are the most stupid people on the face of this Earth.
Anyone who has spent any time in the this state for the past few years knows that the group of Republicans who control the top offices in the state are a group of lazy fat cats, who swap jobs every four years with each other to avoid the appearance of individual kingdoms. Then, on top of that, the current Republican governor (Bob Taft) is the least liked governor in the entire country (polling between 12 -20% approval). Taft is corrupt and the reek of scandal has tainted all those around him. All Ted Strickland needs to do to defeat Blackwell is keep his mouth shut (except to remind people of the corruption in Columbus) and breathe.
Yet, we see the possibility of the DNC coming in and screwing things up by reviving the "we was robbed" hysteria. Why? The prevailing theory is that its because Ken Blackwell is black and that he might peel off enough of the 90% African-American voters who normally vote Democratic to push him over the top and make further GOP inroads into the African-American community. Except that it won't happen and if Democrats continue to think in this racial manner, rather than appreciate the ability of the voters to think for themselves, they will start losing their block voters. Mr. Blackwell is extremely conservative and I highly doubt that any of his ideas will play well in the African-American community.
So the 90% is safe, assuming the Democrats don't push them into a state of disgust with them that they just stay at home. Discression is the better part of valor. Sometimes the donkeys need that whispered in their ears from time to time.
Anyone who has spent any time in the this state for the past few years knows that the group of Republicans who control the top offices in the state are a group of lazy fat cats, who swap jobs every four years with each other to avoid the appearance of individual kingdoms. Then, on top of that, the current Republican governor (Bob Taft) is the least liked governor in the entire country (polling between 12 -20% approval). Taft is corrupt and the reek of scandal has tainted all those around him. All Ted Strickland needs to do to defeat Blackwell is keep his mouth shut (except to remind people of the corruption in Columbus) and breathe.
Yet, we see the possibility of the DNC coming in and screwing things up by reviving the "we was robbed" hysteria. Why? The prevailing theory is that its because Ken Blackwell is black and that he might peel off enough of the 90% African-American voters who normally vote Democratic to push him over the top and make further GOP inroads into the African-American community. Except that it won't happen and if Democrats continue to think in this racial manner, rather than appreciate the ability of the voters to think for themselves, they will start losing their block voters. Mr. Blackwell is extremely conservative and I highly doubt that any of his ideas will play well in the African-American community.
So the 90% is safe, assuming the Democrats don't push them into a state of disgust with them that they just stay at home. Discression is the better part of valor. Sometimes the donkeys need that whispered in their ears from time to time.
Monday, May 15, 2006
Baby's Here
I know blogging has been light, but its been a wreck at work and now the baby is here. She was born at 1:24 pm on May 11, 2006. She was 20.75 inches long and 8lb 8.8 oz. For those close to us who would like to see a picture, go here and enter the pertinant information. I'll try to keep everyone abreast of the situation, but these will be some long nights. :)
Tuesday, May 02, 2006
Anti-Illegal Elections
Well, its election time here in Ohio. We have no non-partisan issues, so Mrs. X will be staying home today (she’s still pregnant by the way). I am a registered Republican so I’ll be voting in the primary when I get off work. Most of the races are pretty cut and dry. We’ve got a couple of local races where I’m still tossing one candidate vs. the other. The big one is the governor’s race: Blackwell vs. Petrio for the Republican ticket. Blackwell is polling ahead of Petrio and Petrio’s last campaign ad reeked of desperation so it probably doesn’t really matter whom I vote for. Blackwell will win the nomination and be down anywhere from 7 to 15 points to Ted Strickland five months out.
Meanwhile, ANSWER (Act Now to Stop War and End Racism), a socialist workers group, organized a large protest with immigrants and has probably done more to hang them out to dry than any other event. Reading a few blogs from San Diego and Los Angeles, where the boycott had the widest participation, there seemed to be very little overall impact to businesses. Some inconveniences were reported, but nothing ground to a halt.
However, some snooping around to businesses that had significant percentages of people not showing up for work showed that the managers were not overly concerned. In fact, most responded that they would be firing a number of those who did not come in. Sadly, there is a feeling that you can just plug and chug. Someone who is more appreciative of the job can replace anyone who isn’t working out.
Worse for the immigrants than just the loss of their jobs is the public perception that has no entered in the thought process of most Americans. The winds were starting to blow against illegals, especially after many of them began demanding amnesty and reward for flouting the laws of this country. The biggest outcry has come from people who recently entered this country legally and have been going through the heavy bureaucratic red tape trying to get what these other folks are demanding to get easily. They have not helped their case by including members of fringe groups who go around waving Mexican flags and demanding that California and Arizona be returned to Mexico. The image of the Mexican flag over an upside-down American flag still burns rather hot in some people’s minds.
The boycott also called up what some will use as a powerful anti-illegal statistic. Los Angeles Public Schools reported approximately 25% absenteeism yesterday. Some of that were probably kids taking advantage of the situation even if they are not children of illegals. But throw in those children of illegals who did show up and 25% is probably a reasonably accurate number of the children of illegals (whether the children are citizens or not) who are in the school system of LA. The education budget for LA is approximately $13 billion. This means that anti-illegal groups are going to be talking about the over $3 billion that are spend educating the children of illegals in LA alone. If that statistic gets out to Joe and Jane six-pack of the mid-West and the South, guess what kind of hammer is going to be brought down on the local school boards?
Thus, by marching and attempting to demonstrate their power, power that is predominately an illusion due to the servitude that most are held in through fear, many illegal (and even non-illegal) immigrants are going to have some very hard times ahead. Arizona is already drafting legislation to create serious punishment and border enforcement for immigrants. The Democratic governor has promised to veto it, but the Republican congress is also crafting a ballot initiative to perform an end-around around that.
There have also been whispers that the minutemen or some other anti-illegal immigration group may field a third party candidate to get their concerns heard. When polled in Arizona, New Mexico, and other border states, a hypothetical third party candidate running on this issue does as well as a theoretical Democratic candidate and cuts deeply into the Republican base. Its an issue that cuts both ways and it’s not something that is going to go away anytime soon.
Meanwhile, ANSWER (Act Now to Stop War and End Racism), a socialist workers group, organized a large protest with immigrants and has probably done more to hang them out to dry than any other event. Reading a few blogs from San Diego and Los Angeles, where the boycott had the widest participation, there seemed to be very little overall impact to businesses. Some inconveniences were reported, but nothing ground to a halt.
However, some snooping around to businesses that had significant percentages of people not showing up for work showed that the managers were not overly concerned. In fact, most responded that they would be firing a number of those who did not come in. Sadly, there is a feeling that you can just plug and chug. Someone who is more appreciative of the job can replace anyone who isn’t working out.
Worse for the immigrants than just the loss of their jobs is the public perception that has no entered in the thought process of most Americans. The winds were starting to blow against illegals, especially after many of them began demanding amnesty and reward for flouting the laws of this country. The biggest outcry has come from people who recently entered this country legally and have been going through the heavy bureaucratic red tape trying to get what these other folks are demanding to get easily. They have not helped their case by including members of fringe groups who go around waving Mexican flags and demanding that California and Arizona be returned to Mexico. The image of the Mexican flag over an upside-down American flag still burns rather hot in some people’s minds.
The boycott also called up what some will use as a powerful anti-illegal statistic. Los Angeles Public Schools reported approximately 25% absenteeism yesterday. Some of that were probably kids taking advantage of the situation even if they are not children of illegals. But throw in those children of illegals who did show up and 25% is probably a reasonably accurate number of the children of illegals (whether the children are citizens or not) who are in the school system of LA. The education budget for LA is approximately $13 billion. This means that anti-illegal groups are going to be talking about the over $3 billion that are spend educating the children of illegals in LA alone. If that statistic gets out to Joe and Jane six-pack of the mid-West and the South, guess what kind of hammer is going to be brought down on the local school boards?
Thus, by marching and attempting to demonstrate their power, power that is predominately an illusion due to the servitude that most are held in through fear, many illegal (and even non-illegal) immigrants are going to have some very hard times ahead. Arizona is already drafting legislation to create serious punishment and border enforcement for immigrants. The Democratic governor has promised to veto it, but the Republican congress is also crafting a ballot initiative to perform an end-around around that.
There have also been whispers that the minutemen or some other anti-illegal immigration group may field a third party candidate to get their concerns heard. When polled in Arizona, New Mexico, and other border states, a hypothetical third party candidate running on this issue does as well as a theoretical Democratic candidate and cuts deeply into the Republican base. Its an issue that cuts both ways and it’s not something that is going to go away anytime soon.
Tuesday, April 18, 2006
One Step Closer
This little bit of news caught my eye this morning. Of course, its glossed over with the typical tragedy of war and occupation, but it was the fact that the international community as well as the local officials that want to see the city rebuilt even beyond a simple archeological attraction. Still, I think its going to be a while before we can call this the Williamsburg of the Middle East ;)
If Iraq ever splits up, as I postulated in a previous post, look for Babylon to be declared the free city of the Middle East, especially once Jerusalem fully falls into Israeli hands.
If Iraq ever splits up, as I postulated in a previous post, look for Babylon to be declared the free city of the Middle East, especially once Jerusalem fully falls into Israeli hands.
Monday, April 10, 2006
Hollywood Fantasyland
Sorry for the long delay but I've been a bit out of the blogging mood. Plus, its been all baby, all the time in my mind and Mrs. X provides much better commentary on that than I do.
The West Wing has been referred to as “if Hollywood had run the Clinton White House.” Last night, Hollywood stepped in again and tried to claim that they were still in touch with the American electorate. To make a compelling storyline for this season’s election, they decided they needed to show a liberal Democratic candidate win the White House against a moderate conservative who was going to win California, thus proving that the country is more liberal and that a Democrat can win the White House without winning California.
Their plan for this involved a standard electoral map from the 2000 election with swaps in six key states: California, Texas, Arizona, Colorado, Missouri, and South Carolina. They also had this moderate Republican win Maine and Vermont but those electoral votes are small enough that it was only to make it more dramatic at the end.
That California and Texas would swap colors is possible, but rather unlikely. California has been receiving more and more liberal Easterners, inflating its population and driving it more to the left. Texas, meanwhile, hasn’t gone for a Democrat since it voted with the rest of the South for Jimmy Carter in 1976. But, Texans are definitely puffed up when it comes to native sons. A liberal candidate from Texas has a much better shot at winning the state than say a liberal from New England.
The idea that Santos could win Arizona and Colorado is tied into the mistaken idea of race block voting. Because African-Americans tend to vote 90% Democrat, there is this mistaken belief that Hispanics and other minority groups are this big voting block where if you convince one, you win them all. In fact, the two most recent elections showed that Hispanics especially are very nuanced and split along many different lines depending on what issues are important to them, much like many portions of white America. BTW, Colorado hasn’t gone Democrat since 1992.
Missouri has been a bellweather state for a long time. However, it has been trending more Republican over the last four years. In terms of the state of the country, a state like Ohio is a little more indicative of the mood of the country. Its fun to stick with trends so it’s easy to see why the writers gave Santos Missouri, however, in a real election, if Santos had won Missouri, he would have probably also won Ohio and Florida, ruining the storyline.
South Carolina is another non-sequitor. SC hasn’t voted Democrat since 1976, even when Bill Clinton won several states among the old Confederacy. Simply because a candidate visits a state many times during a campaign, that doesn’t mean you can necessarily reverse overlying trends. Again, if a Democratic candidate could carry a conservative state like South Carolina, they should nail states like Florida and Ohio, where the vote is much closer.
The producers of the show claim that up until John Spencer died, they were planning to have Vinick win the election. But when they were forced to write the death of Leo into the show, the writers decided that it would be too much of a downer if Santos lost his running mate and the election in one night. Actually, I think it would have been more real and would have given the show a biting edge that it once had back in the first four seasons. Your side doesn’t always win and those are the breaks. When it rains, it pours, etc. Of course, despite their claims, the way the show has laid itself out since the beginning of the season has presented a strong case that they were going to let Santos win from the beginning. So their explanation doesn’t exactly hold water in my mind.
I have no real problem with Santos winning, except for the fact that it seems so repetitive of Bartlett storylines. My only real problem is the manner in which it was done. The whole thing smacks of laziness on the part of the writers and only further exacerbates the cry of Mrs. X and myself, “Bring me the head of John Wells!”
The West Wing has been referred to as “if Hollywood had run the Clinton White House.” Last night, Hollywood stepped in again and tried to claim that they were still in touch with the American electorate. To make a compelling storyline for this season’s election, they decided they needed to show a liberal Democratic candidate win the White House against a moderate conservative who was going to win California, thus proving that the country is more liberal and that a Democrat can win the White House without winning California.
Their plan for this involved a standard electoral map from the 2000 election with swaps in six key states: California, Texas, Arizona, Colorado, Missouri, and South Carolina. They also had this moderate Republican win Maine and Vermont but those electoral votes are small enough that it was only to make it more dramatic at the end.
That California and Texas would swap colors is possible, but rather unlikely. California has been receiving more and more liberal Easterners, inflating its population and driving it more to the left. Texas, meanwhile, hasn’t gone for a Democrat since it voted with the rest of the South for Jimmy Carter in 1976. But, Texans are definitely puffed up when it comes to native sons. A liberal candidate from Texas has a much better shot at winning the state than say a liberal from New England.
The idea that Santos could win Arizona and Colorado is tied into the mistaken idea of race block voting. Because African-Americans tend to vote 90% Democrat, there is this mistaken belief that Hispanics and other minority groups are this big voting block where if you convince one, you win them all. In fact, the two most recent elections showed that Hispanics especially are very nuanced and split along many different lines depending on what issues are important to them, much like many portions of white America. BTW, Colorado hasn’t gone Democrat since 1992.
Missouri has been a bellweather state for a long time. However, it has been trending more Republican over the last four years. In terms of the state of the country, a state like Ohio is a little more indicative of the mood of the country. Its fun to stick with trends so it’s easy to see why the writers gave Santos Missouri, however, in a real election, if Santos had won Missouri, he would have probably also won Ohio and Florida, ruining the storyline.
South Carolina is another non-sequitor. SC hasn’t voted Democrat since 1976, even when Bill Clinton won several states among the old Confederacy. Simply because a candidate visits a state many times during a campaign, that doesn’t mean you can necessarily reverse overlying trends. Again, if a Democratic candidate could carry a conservative state like South Carolina, they should nail states like Florida and Ohio, where the vote is much closer.
The producers of the show claim that up until John Spencer died, they were planning to have Vinick win the election. But when they were forced to write the death of Leo into the show, the writers decided that it would be too much of a downer if Santos lost his running mate and the election in one night. Actually, I think it would have been more real and would have given the show a biting edge that it once had back in the first four seasons. Your side doesn’t always win and those are the breaks. When it rains, it pours, etc. Of course, despite their claims, the way the show has laid itself out since the beginning of the season has presented a strong case that they were going to let Santos win from the beginning. So their explanation doesn’t exactly hold water in my mind.
I have no real problem with Santos winning, except for the fact that it seems so repetitive of Bartlett storylines. My only real problem is the manner in which it was done. The whole thing smacks of laziness on the part of the writers and only further exacerbates the cry of Mrs. X and myself, “Bring me the head of John Wells!”
Monday, March 13, 2006
Southern Straw Burning
This past weekend the Republican Southern Leadership Council held an informal straw poll among the various front-runners for the 2008 nomination. Most would not even take note of this except that Republican moneymen like to back front-runners early. Unlike Democrats, who are more willing to embrace an outsider, Republicans like to know whom they are voting and raising money for early. So this straw poll actually did a lot in lining up men with cash and making preparations for the jockeying that will take place next year.
Bill Frist, the Senate Majority leader from Tennessee, was the overall winner, but his victory is largely discounted. The event was held in Memphis and Frist is quite popular in his home state. However, he only received a few votes outside of the Tennessee delegation. What’s more, his leadership style has been almost completely lacking since Trent Lott was forced to resign. In any other state, Frist would probably consider himself luck to finish third. So, this doesn’t mean much overall, except that Frist might want to consider scrapping the Presidency and running for governor of Tennessee first.
The big surprise was who finished number two: Mitt Romney, governor of Massachusetts. It was widely expected that the number two slot would be a horserace between John McCain and John Warner (senator from Virginia). That someone not even from the south won the number two spot is potentially very big. Depending on how the increased scrutiny on his record as governor of Massachusetts goes, Romney could have just made a major step forward. Most of the Washington insiders want someone a bit more moderate that President Bush who will work a little better with the Democrats and won’t bring this emotional baggage to the table. What’s more, coming from a New England state, Romney could force a Democratic candidate to spend money to secure states they would normally win hands down. If Romney gets the nomination, he’ll have to select a southern conservative like Warner to fully placate the base and ensure a good turnout. Fortunately, being a Mormon, Romney shouldn’t have too much trouble getting the religious vote, despite the fact that conservative Christians and Mormons don’t always see eye to eye.
The other amusing story was the performance of John McCain. McCain seemed to sense early that he would get thumped in a race where he really needed to finish second. So he began going around and telling people to vote for Bush as a measure of solidarity. Some did and Bush finished fourth in a race that he can’t win, but most saw through this a ploy for McCain to disguise his poor showing. Even assuming that all those who voted for Bush would have voted for McCain, combining the two stacks would still have given McCain a third place finish and a fourth place finish is probably more accurate of his standing among the SRLC. What this shows is that McCain, while popular with the Beltway insiders and the media, is still not very popular with the base, despite his pandering. I don’t know what kind of deal McCain cut with Bush to get McCain to campaign for him, but McCain is going to need some serious help if he wants to be a factor in the primaries after Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.
Now, much is still going on and I don’t know what’s going to happen in the next couple of years. For all we know, Mr. Cheney could have a fifth heart attack and be forced to resign for health reasons, prompting Mr. Bush to pluck someone from the masses and anoint them as a successor. But, I rather doubt that will happen. Still, this upcoming election is starting to take on more and more of a West Wing flavor.
Bill Frist, the Senate Majority leader from Tennessee, was the overall winner, but his victory is largely discounted. The event was held in Memphis and Frist is quite popular in his home state. However, he only received a few votes outside of the Tennessee delegation. What’s more, his leadership style has been almost completely lacking since Trent Lott was forced to resign. In any other state, Frist would probably consider himself luck to finish third. So, this doesn’t mean much overall, except that Frist might want to consider scrapping the Presidency and running for governor of Tennessee first.
The big surprise was who finished number two: Mitt Romney, governor of Massachusetts. It was widely expected that the number two slot would be a horserace between John McCain and John Warner (senator from Virginia). That someone not even from the south won the number two spot is potentially very big. Depending on how the increased scrutiny on his record as governor of Massachusetts goes, Romney could have just made a major step forward. Most of the Washington insiders want someone a bit more moderate that President Bush who will work a little better with the Democrats and won’t bring this emotional baggage to the table. What’s more, coming from a New England state, Romney could force a Democratic candidate to spend money to secure states they would normally win hands down. If Romney gets the nomination, he’ll have to select a southern conservative like Warner to fully placate the base and ensure a good turnout. Fortunately, being a Mormon, Romney shouldn’t have too much trouble getting the religious vote, despite the fact that conservative Christians and Mormons don’t always see eye to eye.
The other amusing story was the performance of John McCain. McCain seemed to sense early that he would get thumped in a race where he really needed to finish second. So he began going around and telling people to vote for Bush as a measure of solidarity. Some did and Bush finished fourth in a race that he can’t win, but most saw through this a ploy for McCain to disguise his poor showing. Even assuming that all those who voted for Bush would have voted for McCain, combining the two stacks would still have given McCain a third place finish and a fourth place finish is probably more accurate of his standing among the SRLC. What this shows is that McCain, while popular with the Beltway insiders and the media, is still not very popular with the base, despite his pandering. I don’t know what kind of deal McCain cut with Bush to get McCain to campaign for him, but McCain is going to need some serious help if he wants to be a factor in the primaries after Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.
Now, much is still going on and I don’t know what’s going to happen in the next couple of years. For all we know, Mr. Cheney could have a fifth heart attack and be forced to resign for health reasons, prompting Mr. Bush to pluck someone from the masses and anoint them as a successor. But, I rather doubt that will happen. Still, this upcoming election is starting to take on more and more of a West Wing flavor.
Monday, March 06, 2006
IDIOT! Give me your money for this Crap!
So the Oscars were on last night. I didn’t really watch anything beyond Jon Stewart’s opening monologue, but I was in the other room and could hear a lot of it while Mrs. X watched it. However, she turned the TV off at 10 so I can’t say anything beyond that. In general of what I overheard, I was reminded of the scene from The Breakfast Club where Anthony Michael Hall’s character is spilling out about being unpopular and Molly Ringwald’s character says its because that they all look up to the popular kids (which include her and Emilio Estevez). Hollywood spend a good portion of last night slapping themselves on the back and chastising the public about not going to see the movies they make and slurping them for being on the cutting edge of culture.
There have been decidedly mixed reviews for Jon Stewart’s performance as host. I liked it, but it was easy to tell that the audience didn’t. Actors want to be lauded, not made fun of. Except that that’s what Jon Stewart does. But then again, with the trouble Hollywood has had in the past in getting people to host the show, its not surprising that they turned to Stewart. Maybe they thought it would make them hip or something.
No matter what you thought of Stewart’s performance, it was easily overshadowed by the almost palpable anger/irritation displayed by the Hollywood elite towards the unwashed masses for not recognizing them as the vanguard of culture and for giving them lots of money to see movies in a theater. There were at least two very snide comments about how nothing compares to seeing a movie in the theater and how we shouldn’t be buying DVDs because it doesn’t compare to a real movie experience. Actually, the last two movies I saw in the theater were Goblet of Fire and The Lion, The Witch, and the Wardrobe. At Goblet of Fire, I nearly passed out from heat stroke, the theater was so packed and overheated and Mrs. X was almost reduced to tears she was in so much pain from sitting in the seats and being crowded by so many people. At Narnia, the aspect ratio of the movie was off so that any character’s head that was near the top of the screen was cut off at the nose. Neither of these is what I would call a truly enjoyable experience. Certainly not one that encourages me to go out and spend $9 on a random movie that may or not interest me.
The other thing that got me was the endless montages of how great Hollywood is. I made the snide remark to Mrs. X that if Hollywood could actually make a move as good as Ben Hur again, maybe people would actually go see them and they wouldn’t have to spend all this time and money yelling at people to remember how good they were and to try and get them to see a bunch of bad movies now.
One can only hope that the laws of capitalism eventually sink in to the Hollywood types and that if they make a good product, people will actually take part of that product. If not, the Oscars are only going to get worse in they’re living in the past and anger towards the masses.
There have been decidedly mixed reviews for Jon Stewart’s performance as host. I liked it, but it was easy to tell that the audience didn’t. Actors want to be lauded, not made fun of. Except that that’s what Jon Stewart does. But then again, with the trouble Hollywood has had in the past in getting people to host the show, its not surprising that they turned to Stewart. Maybe they thought it would make them hip or something.
No matter what you thought of Stewart’s performance, it was easily overshadowed by the almost palpable anger/irritation displayed by the Hollywood elite towards the unwashed masses for not recognizing them as the vanguard of culture and for giving them lots of money to see movies in a theater. There were at least two very snide comments about how nothing compares to seeing a movie in the theater and how we shouldn’t be buying DVDs because it doesn’t compare to a real movie experience. Actually, the last two movies I saw in the theater were Goblet of Fire and The Lion, The Witch, and the Wardrobe. At Goblet of Fire, I nearly passed out from heat stroke, the theater was so packed and overheated and Mrs. X was almost reduced to tears she was in so much pain from sitting in the seats and being crowded by so many people. At Narnia, the aspect ratio of the movie was off so that any character’s head that was near the top of the screen was cut off at the nose. Neither of these is what I would call a truly enjoyable experience. Certainly not one that encourages me to go out and spend $9 on a random movie that may or not interest me.
The other thing that got me was the endless montages of how great Hollywood is. I made the snide remark to Mrs. X that if Hollywood could actually make a move as good as Ben Hur again, maybe people would actually go see them and they wouldn’t have to spend all this time and money yelling at people to remember how good they were and to try and get them to see a bunch of bad movies now.
One can only hope that the laws of capitalism eventually sink in to the Hollywood types and that if they make a good product, people will actually take part of that product. If not, the Oscars are only going to get worse in they’re living in the past and anger towards the masses.
Friday, February 24, 2006
Resurrection of Al?
In an article that appeared on The Hill, it appears that Al Gore might be ready to make a Nixon like run at the White House. In 1960, John Kennedy narrowly defeated Richard Nixon in a controversial election. Nixon was exiled where he became even more of a joke after being defeated in his run for Governor of California in 1962. However, after the more conservative Barry Goldwater was destroyed by LBJ in 1964, Republicans started having second thoughts about Nixon. Nixon, in turn, started glad-handing the party faithful, positioning himself for a run at the nomination in 1968. He locked it up and then narrowly defeated Hubert Humphrey in the 1968 election.
This could be a potential mirror for Al Gore in 2008. Gore was narrowly defeated in the 2000 election that had its share of controversy. Bush was blamed, but Gore received a great deal of scorn as well for not putting things out of reach by either winning Tennessee or New Hampshire. Gore was exiled to the political wilderness and was even see as the kiss of death after he endorsed Howard Dean in 2004 and Dean suddenly collapsed. But the more liberal John Kerry’s worse-than-Gore defeat to Bush kept shifting more of the 2000 election anger on Bush and the Democratic establishment rather than on Gore himself.
Gore has also been endearing himself more and more to the moveon.org portion of the Democratic base with his consistent attacks on Bush policies and complete opposition to the war in Iraq. In addition, Gore’s consistent position on global warming and energy policy are a bit more in favor following the aftereffects of Hurricane Katrina and the gas price spikes of last year.
With these as tools, as well as a couple of political favors that Howard Dean still owes him, Gore might be able to score a win in Iowa and a first or second finish in New Hampshire. This might be able to give him traction and generate more money to his campaign. Senator Clinton is already on the outs with the more liberal base because of her mixed position on the war and there are growing fears that she might not be electable. If Gore out-greens her, he might steal enough of her support in the party machinery to overcome the neck-and-neck race he’ll have to deal with from Mark Warner (former governor of Virginia). This is where the mood of the party will come into play as to see if they’ll be ready to embrace a more moderate candidate in the mold of former President Clinton.
Now, could Gore win the election? I doubt it. He’s made himself too extreme with his cries in the wilderness and all those SNL caricatures are hard to overcome. I’m also not completely sure that Gore could beat Warner in a head-to-head match up. But, if he does defeat Warner, he might be able to capture enough momentum to seize the middle and take out the Republican candidate, especially if the nominee is a hard righter like Sen. Sam Brownback (Kan). Still, I’d keep an eye on Al in the near future.
This could be a potential mirror for Al Gore in 2008. Gore was narrowly defeated in the 2000 election that had its share of controversy. Bush was blamed, but Gore received a great deal of scorn as well for not putting things out of reach by either winning Tennessee or New Hampshire. Gore was exiled to the political wilderness and was even see as the kiss of death after he endorsed Howard Dean in 2004 and Dean suddenly collapsed. But the more liberal John Kerry’s worse-than-Gore defeat to Bush kept shifting more of the 2000 election anger on Bush and the Democratic establishment rather than on Gore himself.
Gore has also been endearing himself more and more to the moveon.org portion of the Democratic base with his consistent attacks on Bush policies and complete opposition to the war in Iraq. In addition, Gore’s consistent position on global warming and energy policy are a bit more in favor following the aftereffects of Hurricane Katrina and the gas price spikes of last year.
With these as tools, as well as a couple of political favors that Howard Dean still owes him, Gore might be able to score a win in Iowa and a first or second finish in New Hampshire. This might be able to give him traction and generate more money to his campaign. Senator Clinton is already on the outs with the more liberal base because of her mixed position on the war and there are growing fears that she might not be electable. If Gore out-greens her, he might steal enough of her support in the party machinery to overcome the neck-and-neck race he’ll have to deal with from Mark Warner (former governor of Virginia). This is where the mood of the party will come into play as to see if they’ll be ready to embrace a more moderate candidate in the mold of former President Clinton.
Now, could Gore win the election? I doubt it. He’s made himself too extreme with his cries in the wilderness and all those SNL caricatures are hard to overcome. I’m also not completely sure that Gore could beat Warner in a head-to-head match up. But, if he does defeat Warner, he might be able to capture enough momentum to seize the middle and take out the Republican candidate, especially if the nominee is a hard righter like Sen. Sam Brownback (Kan). Still, I’d keep an eye on Al in the near future.
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