Southern Straw Burning

This past weekend the Republican Southern Leadership Council held an informal straw poll among the various front-runners for the 2008 nomination. Most would not even take note of this except that Republican moneymen like to back front-runners early. Unlike Democrats, who are more willing to embrace an outsider, Republicans like to know whom they are voting and raising money for early. So this straw poll actually did a lot in lining up men with cash and making preparations for the jockeying that will take place next year.

Bill Frist, the Senate Majority leader from Tennessee, was the overall winner, but his victory is largely discounted. The event was held in Memphis and Frist is quite popular in his home state. However, he only received a few votes outside of the Tennessee delegation. What’s more, his leadership style has been almost completely lacking since Trent Lott was forced to resign. In any other state, Frist would probably consider himself luck to finish third. So, this doesn’t mean much overall, except that Frist might want to consider scrapping the Presidency and running for governor of Tennessee first.

The big surprise was who finished number two: Mitt Romney, governor of Massachusetts. It was widely expected that the number two slot would be a horserace between John McCain and John Warner (senator from Virginia). That someone not even from the south won the number two spot is potentially very big. Depending on how the increased scrutiny on his record as governor of Massachusetts goes, Romney could have just made a major step forward. Most of the Washington insiders want someone a bit more moderate that President Bush who will work a little better with the Democrats and won’t bring this emotional baggage to the table. What’s more, coming from a New England state, Romney could force a Democratic candidate to spend money to secure states they would normally win hands down. If Romney gets the nomination, he’ll have to select a southern conservative like Warner to fully placate the base and ensure a good turnout. Fortunately, being a Mormon, Romney shouldn’t have too much trouble getting the religious vote, despite the fact that conservative Christians and Mormons don’t always see eye to eye.

The other amusing story was the performance of John McCain. McCain seemed to sense early that he would get thumped in a race where he really needed to finish second. So he began going around and telling people to vote for Bush as a measure of solidarity. Some did and Bush finished fourth in a race that he can’t win, but most saw through this a ploy for McCain to disguise his poor showing. Even assuming that all those who voted for Bush would have voted for McCain, combining the two stacks would still have given McCain a third place finish and a fourth place finish is probably more accurate of his standing among the SRLC. What this shows is that McCain, while popular with the Beltway insiders and the media, is still not very popular with the base, despite his pandering. I don’t know what kind of deal McCain cut with Bush to get McCain to campaign for him, but McCain is going to need some serious help if he wants to be a factor in the primaries after Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

Now, much is still going on and I don’t know what’s going to happen in the next couple of years. For all we know, Mr. Cheney could have a fifth heart attack and be forced to resign for health reasons, prompting Mr. Bush to pluck someone from the masses and anoint them as a successor. But, I rather doubt that will happen. Still, this upcoming election is starting to take on more and more of a West Wing flavor.