Early Playoff Speculation

Now that Week 12 is just about over, we can start to speculate about the playoffs.

Starting with the AFC, things are starting to look pretty solid on several fronts. New England will probably win the AFC East. Baltimore has the tiebreaker against Pittsburgh but they really need another game to make themselves comfortable as winners of the AFC North.

Houston has a two game lead over Tennessee for the AFC South and has won their first game against Tennessee. Houston has lost both their starting and backup quarterbacks so their two game lead over Tennessee is not solid. They play Tennessee in the last game of the regular season. It is not impossible that that could end up being a game for all the marbles. Houston could actually be a game behind Tennessee going into that game and if they win, the tie-breaker would go to Houston.

In the West, Oakland has a one game lead over Denver. Oakland and Denver split the season series so that race will remain tight. Looking ahead, Denver has a very real shot of going 3-2 at worst and may go for more. Oakland has a slightly tougher schedule with games against Green Bay and Detroit still on the horizon. This division also could come down to the wire.

Pittsburgh, as they are nipping on Baltimore's heels is looking strong for that first wild card spot. Should they overtake Baltimore in the division, Baltimore would probably supplant them at the #5 seed so there is little excitement there. Cincinnati currently has exclusive rights to the second wild card, but the NY Jets, Tennessee Titans, and Denver Broncos are all one game back. Cincinnati has the tiebreaker over Tennessee and a better conference record than the Jets. Denver has the tiebreaker over Cincinnati. If the Bengals could go 3-1 over their next four games (Pittsburgh, Houston, Arizona, St. Louis), they would be in good shape, even if Denver and the Jets stay on their current strong streaks. Still, it might be to the Bengals advantage to have Denver overtake Oakland for the AFC West crown as the Bengals would be better off matching conference records against Oakland than the guaranteed tiebreaker loss to Denver.

Seeding is up in the air. Houston currently has the #1 seed but that's not going to hold up over the next several weeks. Likely, it will be New England and the AFC North winner (Baltimore currently) that will get the first round byes. I think Houston will hold on to the #3 unless they completely free fall. This gives the #4 to Oakland/Denver. If Oakland held on to win the division and faced Pittsburgh in the first round of the playoffs, that would pose a very interesting match-up as it would call up the shades of when Carson Palmer tore his ACL in the 2005-6 playoffs against Pittsburgh.

On the NFC side, things are also a bit murky in the lower reaches. Green Bay is very close to wrapping up the NFC North crown and will probably wrap up the #1 seed by Week 15. San Francisco will win the NFC West next week if they beat St. Louis, regardless of what anyone else does. This puts them is a solid slot for the #2 seed.

New Orleans currently holds the NFC South lead and the #3 spot. Atlanta is right behind them though and could move into a tie for the lead if New Orleans loses to the NY Giants tonight. New Orleans won the first match-up with Atlanta and they face each other again in Week 16. New Orleans also has a better divisional record which gives them an additional inside track against Atlanta.

Should New Orleans fall, they will lose the #3 seed to Dallas who currently sits atop the NFC East. Of course, a New Orleans loss means that the NY Giants will vault into a tie with the Cowboys at 7-4. Dallas and New York have not played each other yet this year. Dallas has a better divisional record, but the contests of Weeks 14 and 17 will likely decide who wins that division.

Chicago, Detroit and Atlanta are all tied at 7-4 and looking for those two wild card spots. If New York wins tonight, that'll introduce a 4th team fighting for the two spots. Currently the Bears have the #5 seed by virtue of a better conference record and a head-to-head win against Atlanta. Atlanta beats out Detroit due to their head-to-head win against the Lions for the #6 spot. However, I would not put much stock in these standings. Detroit is a gritty team with at least three winnable games on their schedule (Minnesota, Oakland, San Diego). They also play Green Bay in the last game of the season and Green Bay may be resting people giving Detroit a real chance of getting 11 wins this season. Chicago has lost their starting quarterback but a softer schedule (Kansas City, Seattle, Minnesota) gives them a good shot at 10+ wins.

At least one team from the NFC North will make the playoffs and possibly two depending on how Atlanta plays out. The Giants and Cowboys could enter into the picture as well, but I think it is likely that they will beat each other up too much to sneak a wild card spot from a 10+ win Chicago, Detroit, or Atlanta.

Much will probably change in the next couple of weeks, but this is where we stand now.