Just About Set

Things are just about ready to go for the Republican Primaries. With the announcements of Mr. Christie and Mrs. Palin that they are not running, the field of candidates looks to be locked in to what we have. Mr. Romney and Mr. Perry will be considered the favorites and awarded frontrunner status by The Powers That Be. Mr. Cain will probably be set in tier 1A, close to the front but not quite of their caliber. Everyone else will be considered to be behind those three unless they make a big splash in the earlier primaries.

Speaking of the primaries, the calendar is almost set as well. Nevada announced yesterday that they have set their caucus for January 14. That puts a full week between them and South Carolina (January 21) with another 10 days before the Florida primary January 31).

The only remaining states are New Hampshire and Iowa. The main problem is that New Hampshire actually has a law on their books specifying that their primary must be held at least a week before the next primary or caucus (Nevada). This now means that to comply with New Hampshire law, the primary date must either be set on Saturday (January 7) or the next available Tuesday (January 3).

If New Hampshire opts for January 7, Iowa would probably take January 2 or 3, keeping everything in 2012 (barely). However, if New Hampshire opts for January 3, Iowa will vault itself into 2011 with the caucuses being held sometime in the week after Christmas. Christmas is on a Sunday this year so I wouldn't be surprised to see December 27 (Tuesday) being looked at as the target date.

For ease of reference, I've put together a map with the various states and what month their primaries and caucuses are. I didn't bother creating a new color for Iowa, assuming they fall in December. Most of the March contests (including Ohio) are being held on the 6th which is Super Tuesday.


The official dates for the 48 set sates (Republican contests only) are:
January 14 (Saturday) - Nevada
January 21 (Saturday) - South Carolina
January 31 (Tuesday) - Florida
February 4-11 - Maine Caucus
February 7 (Tuesday) - Colorado, Minnesota
February 28 (Tuesday) - Arizona, Michigan
March 3 (Saturday) - Washington
March 6 (Tuesday) - Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming
March 10 (Saturday) - Kansas
March 13 (Tuesday) - Alabama, Hawaii, Mississippi
March 17 (Saturday) - Missouri
March 20 (Tuesday) - Illinois
March 24 (Saturday) - Louisiana
April 3 (Tuesday) - Maryland, Washington DC, Wisconsin
April 24 (Tuesday) - Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island
May 8 (Tuesday) - Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia
May 15 (Tuesday) - Nebraska, Oregon
May 22 (Tuesday) - Arkansas, Kentucky
June 5 (Tuesday) - California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota
June 26 (Tuesday) - Utah