Jewish Anger Upsets Democrat

You may not have heard about it, but there were two special elections last night for vacant House seats. NV-2 was previously held by a Republican and it stayed Republican to no one's great surprise. The big news came out of the other race in NY-9.

NY-9 is out on Long Island and covers parts of Brooklyn and Queens. It was last held by Anthony Weiner who resigned due to some sexual indiscretions. Given that, it was naturally assumed that the Democrat (David Weprin) was expected to have a closer than usual race against Republican Bob Turner (Weiner defeated Turner by 9 points in 2010).

However, two things cropped up. President Obama's approval rating (down across the country) has heavily cratered in this district (31/56) and this is leading to Democratic anger and apathy, buoying the Republican hopes. The other is that like most New York City districts, NY-9 is heavily gerrymandered to favor a particular ethnic group. In this case, Orthodox Jews.

Jewish voters do tend to be stereotypically liberal, but the combination of Weiner's moral issues, the bad economic situation, and Mr. Obama's stance that favors the Arabs over Israel have pushed these voters into either apathy (leading to staying home) or a direct vote against the establishment.

Democrat National Committee Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz tried out some interesting contortions by trying to claim that NY-9 is a very difficult district for Democrats to win. Given that a Republican has not won the district since the administration of Warren G. Harding, and that it has produced such Democratic notables as Chuck Schumer and Geraldine Ferraro, this is a bit hard to swallow. Ms. Wasserman Schultz's claim that this due primarily to the large Orthodox Jewish voting bloc is also a bit unsettling (especially given her own Jewish faith).

Time will tell if this really means anything for 2012. If the economy improves, I foresee that the Democrats will take the district back without much trouble. But if it does not, more districts might fall and it could spell certain doom for Mr. Obama's reelection chances.