Wisconsin Recalls

Last night was the second of three recall elections taking place as fallout from the Democrat Senate flight from Wisconsin. A total of nine recall contests are being held. The Democrats held on to the first seat a few weeks ago (district 30) (mostly due to the ineptitude of the Republican candidate).

Last night was the contest against the six Republican incumbents (districts 2, 8, 10, 14, 18, and 32). Republicans held 4 and lost 2 (18 and 32). This means that no matter what happens next week, when the two Democratic incumbents are up, the Republicans will still control the Senate (17/16).


What's more, race handicappers suspect that there is a good chance that one of the two Democrats (Jim Holperin - district 12) will go down as his district is a more natural Republican district (much like 32 is a much more natural Democrat district). The other one (district 22) is a better shot for Democratic retention.

Taken as a whole, this is a somewhat disappointing result for the Democrats. The teacher's union and other outside union forces poured a lot of money into these races and had hoped to at least gain control of the Senate. This would have been viewed as acceptance of the Democrats tactic of leaving the state as a form of protest and given them momentum towards recalling Governor Walker; to say nothing of assuring that the state stays blue in 2012. Now, they are looking at about $30 million spent to narrow the Senate to 18-15 (when they probably would have taken districts 18 and 32 in the next election anyway) and have galvanized the grass roots Republicans.

Still, much could change over the next few months and I wouldn't go relying on Wisconsin in any red state calculations by a long shot if I were the Republican presidential candidate.