Reds Win! Reds Win!

Last night the Reds clinched the division by defeating the Houston Astros 3-2 on a walk-off home run in the 9th by Jay Bruce. Bruce took the literal first pitch and cracked it over the center field wall. For good measure, the St. Louis Cardinals also lost, firmly cementing the Reds as NL Central Division Champions.

As of right now, the playoffs are nearly set. All four AL teams are decided, although it's not yet clear as to who wins the division and who wins the wild card between the NY Yankees and the Tampa Bay Rays (Tampa leads the division by a 1/2 game). The Rays are also 2 games ahead of the Minnesota Twins for home-field advantage. The Texas Rangers round out the AL field.

In the NL, the Phillies have won the East and have clinched home-field. The Reds have the Central. That leaves the West and the wild card. The SF Giants have a 2-game lead on the San Diego Padres for the West and the Atlanta Braves have a 1-1/2 game lead over the Padres for the wild card. All other teams have been eliminated from contention.

For the AL, the East winner will almost surely face off against the Rangers while the Twins take on the wild card winner.

In the NL, the Giants are a game ahead of the Reds for record. If the season ended today, the Phillies would play the Reds and the Giants would play the Braves. But this might change based on the last five games of the season.

Tracking the House

Last week I noted what would constitute good news and bad news for the Democrats in the Senate on election night. Now we should take a quick look at the House.

Currently, the House has 255 Democratic members, 178 Republican members and 2 vacancys. To retain the majority, the Democrats must keep 218 seats or no worse than a loss of 37 seats. I found this map on Realclearpolitics:

The color code breakdown is as follows. Red and Blue denote Republican and Democrat seats that either have not been polled or are considered to stay with their current representation. Salmon are Democratic seats that are considered to likely to switch. Light blue are Republican seats likely to switch and purple are toss ups.

If this map held, the Republicans would have 206 seats and the Democrats would have 191 seats with 38 seats in toss-up. Given this, a good night for the Democrats would mean simply keeping control of the House: 218+ seats (loss of 37 or less). A bad night would mean loss of control and loss of most of the toss-up seats: 200-217 (loss of 38-55 seats). A really bad night would be the loss of all the toss-up seats and not gaining the vunerable Republican seats: 185-199 (loss of 56-70 seats). A "let's get drunk night" would be losing even some of the leaner seats: 184 or less (loss of more than 70 seats).

Senate Balance

While there are many races going on to be decided in 6 weeks, the Senate seems to be capturing the most attention. At the moment there are 59 Democratic Senators and 41 Republicans. It has become almost a given at this point to say that the Democrats are going to lose some seats to the Republicans and the question is just how many. Some go so far as to say that the Republicans might even take hold of the Senate. Let's examine the balance to see how likely that is.

Currently there are 18 seats held by Republicans and 19 seats held by Democrats that are on the ballot. Four of these are special elections: New York for the remainder of Ms. Clinton's term (currently held by Ms. Gillibrand), Illinois for the remainder of Mr. Obama's term (currently held by Mr. Burris), Delaware for the remainder of Mr. Biden's term (currently held by Mr. Kaufman), and West Virginia for the remainder of Mr. Byrd's term (currently held by Mr. Goodwin).

As of right now, the GOP does not look as though they will lose any seats. Florida, Missouri, New Hampshire, and Ohio are tighter races but the polling seems to favor the Republicans. In the same vein, the Republicans look as though they will pick up North Dakota, Indiana, Arkansas, and Pennsylvania. That would push the GOP to 45 seats.

On the Democratic side, they have locks on Hawaii, Maryland, New York, Oregon and Vermont. They are likely to retain Delaware, New York (special), and Connecticut. That puts the Democrats at 48 seats.

That leaves the following seats in a state of flux: California, Washington, West Virginia, Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, and Wisconsin. I think the odds favor the Democrats keeping California and Washington. The Democratic governor running for the West Virginia is popular and has the inside track for that seat, but the Republican has kept on his heels. If the Democrats retain all three of these seats, that puts them at 51 seats.

Current polling favors the Republicans in the 4 remaining seats, which would leave the Senate at 51-49, Democratic control. Now, the one thing that no one seems to be able to get a firm handle on is turnout. Heavy turnout by one side or the other would upend these numbers. A good night for the Democrats would have them retain the 4 toss-ups and press for the New Hampshire and Pennsylvania seats. A bad night for the Democrats would be to lose the 4 toss-ups and be pressed in the three medium seats mentioned above. A really bad night would have the Republicans take all 7 of these seats and press in Connecticut, Delaware, or even the special election in New York. These are unlikely, but it does give us a sense of scale for these races.

So we can rate Senate control is this manner:
Good Night for Democrats (54+ seats)
Bad Night for Democrats (50-53 seats)
Really Bad Night for Democrats (47-49 seats)
Democratic Seppeku (Less than 47 seats)

Tea Party Fallout

Ms. O'Donnell won last night 53-47. The first polls coming out after the contest show her down about 15 points. Interestingly, when she first announced back in July, she polled 3 points above Mr. Coons but then the internecine warfare began.

Can she recover? Perhaps but it will take a significant GotV effort. Democrats outnumber Republicans in Delaware by about 2-1. A significant number of them will have to stay home and Ms. O'Donnell will have to score big among the Independents as well. A tall order for only a month and a half of campaigning.

The one other story that is not getting any play for some reason is the jeopardy that Senator Russ Feingold (D) is finding himself in. Ron Johnson easily won the Republican nomination last night and will be challenging him for the Wisconsin Senate seat. I've been following the poll tracking on this race and the two men have been neck and neck since Johnson announced back in May. Mr. Feingold seems to be unable to break 46 percent in polling while Mr. Johnson dances around him between 44 and 47 points. If turnout is as weighted toward the Republicans as the grand poobahs seem to think they will be, Mr. Feingold may be in trouble of losing his seat. That would be significant.

Delaware Blood

Tonight marks the last major primary night before the November mid-terms. Hawaii will have a primary later this month, but this is last big one. Most of the races are already predetermined but there is one that is causing a true explosion in Republican circles.

Democrats settled on their nominee for the open Delaware senate seat months ago (Chris Coons). The Republicans looked like they had settled on their nominee as well (Current House Rep. Mike Castle), but there has been a late surge by Christine O'Donnell, who is backed by the state tea party.

The issue has become quite contentious as it has evolved into a purity contest. Mr. Castle is seen as something of a RINO (having voted with the GOP only about 85% of the time in the last term of Congress) but is almost certain to crush Mr. Coons in the general (current polling has Castle up 48-37). Ms. O'Donnell is more conservative in her positions but is seen as a flawed candidate who will lose to Mr. Coons (current polling has her down 47-36).

So this has become a purity debate. Is it better to win with a candidate who is squishy in their positions or better to lose with a pure candidate? Either way, the fallout from tonight's primary will be amusing to read.

Polls close at 8pm in Delaware.

Incoming...

Earl from space: