OH-2

In theory, every election should put every House seat in play. However, due to gerrymandering, this simply isn't the case. As such, the best one can do is note how the seats are currently laid out and cover the races you know something about or think will be interesting. For reference, here are the current House districts and their current party affiliation:The best way to start off is always with your own district. In my case, OH-2:OH-2 has been represented by Jean Schmidt since Sept. 2005 when she won the special election to replace Rob Portman, who had been tapped by President Bush to become Trade Representative.

Ms. Schmidt has never been that popular (as she has the reputation of being beholden to the Republican leadership rather than conservative principles) and probably would have been defeated in 2006 if OH-2 were not structured to be a strong Republican district (50.58-49.32). To her credit, she has managed to successfully fend off challengers in the primaries and has now amassed enough time in the House to earn some ranking.

The current declared Democrats are Jim Parker, David Krikorian, and Surya Yalamanchili. As the Primary filing deadline is Feb. 18, it is unlikely that any more candidates will be declared. Of the three, Krikorian is probably the favorite to win the nomination.

On the Republican side, Ms. Schmidt is being challenged by Bryan Hawkins and Michael Kilburn. Mr. Kilburn is the most amusing as he made something of a name for himself in 2009 by refusing stimulus money on behalf of Warren County, referring to it as "Obama's filthy money." This earned him a spot as Keith Olberman's Worst Person, that day. Of course, even with this notoriety, it is very unlikely that either Mr. Hawkins or Mr. Kilburn will generate enough momentum by May 4 to unseat Ms. Schmidt for the nomination.

Whomever the candidates are (and I would strongly bet on Ms. Schmidt being one of them) the district is rated somewhere in the leans Republican to Likely Republican range, indicating that without a major change of fortunes or a serious self-inflicted wound, the district will stay red next year.

Of course, the lines will be redrawn for the 2012 race (Ohio is expected to be reduced from 18 districts to as low as 16) so who knows who the set up will be then. Mrs. X thinks it is likely that we get sucked into the Third district, but we shall just have to see. OH-3 is currently held by Mike Turner, who currently has no declared opposition from either party.