For Three Sins... Even for Four...

Things are going to go to hell for Israel very quickly this year. Yesterday we learned that Hamas has won a full majority of seats in the Palestinian parliament. Abu Mazen of Fatah is still the president, but it is Hamas that is going to be calling the shots now. News of the Hamas victory has had mixed reactions. In the West, there has been a mixture of horror and anxiety. In Arab countries, however, there has been a generally positive reaction. Iran, Egypt, Syria, and the Hezbollah elements in Lebanon have all greeted the news with jubilation. No word yet on the reaction from Jordan about this. Hamas itself is still reeling a bit from their win. I think they were unprepared for their own success and tried to even get Fatah to form the new government. Fatah declined so now Hamas is scrambling to figure out what to do. In the end, they will form a new government but probably will not back down from their objective to destroy Israel.

Now, couple this with the scheduled Israeli elections to be held in March. Also throw in that there may be something of a deadline for which to make surgical strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities in either March or April. Syria is also still very twitchy about possible American advances on their border and a population that is getting restless with the current regime. Throw all these things together and the fruit of war is starting to look more and more ripe. I’m sure most people believe that the Americans are too bogged down in Iraq to make any significant coordinated effort with Israel to repel a multiple pronged attack. Especially if Iran decides to activate its forces and engage us on the Iraq-Iran border and if Hamas can coordinate with the Al-Queda cells in Iraq to disrupt our supply lines. As a result Israel would be forced to deal with the guerrilla tactics of Hamas in the south, supplied with Egyptian weapons, and hold off the Syrian army from the north with aid from Hezbollah. The true wild card would be Jordan. If Jordan stays out of it, Israel can divide its army fairly effectively. If Jordan does enter the fight, Israel then has to fight it out on the mountains of Ephraim while fending off the Syrian armies and Hamas. Then you add the fact that Syria may have some WMDs (whether of their own development or having come from Iraq is unknown) and will probably not hesitate to use them.

So, are we looking at war in a couple of months? I doubt it. I think things will need to fester for a little while. Too much has happened too fast and I think the Arab states need a couple of months to catch their breath. I’m also not totally sure they will opt for the complete surprise attack that they did in 1973. They could and achieve great success through this, but I think they might want to try and make Israel look like the bad guy. This takes time. Still, I would be rather surprised if there is not some sort of armed conflict within 18 months of now. I think the Arabs would like to try and get some sort of ironic revenge by dealing Israel a deathblow around the 40th anniversary of the Six-Day War, which is easily Israel’s greatest military victory. Of course planning that blow and delivering it are two very different things. We shall see.