Mushroom Clouds

So there is now enough political news to make it worth discussing again.

First, the indictment of Mr. Libby. Many on the left were left a wee bit deflated by this indictment. They had really gotten their hopes up that Mr. Rove would be taken down. I suspect there was that possibility and people are still holding out hope that Mr. Libby will squeal like a stuck pig and finger Mr. Rove. Alas, I don’t believe that is happening. Mr. Libby is accused of lying about his testimony, not anything actually related to the leak. He may not actually have any good information to trade that would give the prosecutor reason to not go after him. Second, Mr. Bush and Mr. Cheney have been very good about selecting loyalists around them. I believe that Mr. Libby knows far better than to sin against the family. People who do that get buried.

Will it be of any major interest? I don’t know. Very few people in the country seemed to care when Mr. Clinton was indicted for perjury or when Mr. Berger was indicted for destroying documents. People seem to accept that politicians are crooks and we only want them to do more good than harm in the long run. I suspect that as soon as it becomes clear that Mr. Libby is not turning on the Bush administration it will fade from the headlines, especially if the talk of the prewar intelligence does not help the Democrats in 2006. Mr. Libby will probably be convicted on a count or two of making false statements and get a year or less in some cupcake prison, ala Martha Stewart.

Now, to the Supreme Court. Mrs. X is not fond of Mr. Alito and has voiced an opinion that the Miers nomination and withdrawal was a Rovian plot to pave the way for a justice as conservative as Mr. Alito appears to be. I think Mr. Rove was a bit too distracted to hatch a plot this complicated, plus I’m not sure Mr. Bush and his associates are that good with the acting skills. I think they honestly thought Miers would be acceptable because of her religious nature. We know Mr. Bush has a problem with cronyism and I think this was just a glaring case of it.

So, how will it play in the Senate? I think Mr. Alito will get the recommendation from the judiciary committee on party lines 10-8. Mr. Specter is pro-choice but apparently has a bit of a history with Mr. Alito and I think his acknowledgement of Mr. Alito’s credentials will outweigh his misgivings over this issue. Mr. Specter also still owes the Bush administration for backing him in the Republican primary in 2004. Then it goes to the floor. At this point I don’t know if the Democrats will filibuster. Two members of the gang of 14 (Mike De(s)wine and Lindsey Graham) have said that they will support the nuclear option. John McCain has given the impression that he will at least abstain from the vote if not vote for the nuclear option. This gives the Republicans a 50-49 edge and I think John Warner will vote with the party as well for a 51-48 option. So, do Democrats go down swinging or do they hold back keep the filibuster in the arsenal on the off chance that Justice Stevens or Ginsberg drops dead in the next three years? I’m not sure. Kos, MoveOn, and others want the fight to go nuclear on the impression that it will backfire on the GOP. I’m not sold on that argument. Harry Reid has promised to become more obstructionist if the Republicans go nuclear (as last night’s closed door session would indicate) but that might hurt Democrats as well. It would certainly kill Ben Nelson (D-NE) and could cripple Bill Nelson (D-FL) and Kent Conrad (D-ND). I can’t imagine Robert Byrd (D-WV) would be helped much by it either.

While it might enrage their base, I don’t believe that Democrats can afford to filibuster and then appear whiny when things don’t go their way. They have the opportunity to turn 2006 into 1994 and if they play spoiled child, then that might slip out of their fingers. The best option would be to try and highlight the extreme levels of conservatism in some of Mr. Alito’s decisions and look like the party of sanity. Then try and show the Republican majority as government gone amok. But I doubt they will take that road.