2006 Senate Considerations

I know its way too early for this, but the recent election around here got me thinking about the Republican’s desire to win the supermajority in the Senate. So I looked at who was up for reelection and who would be vulnerable. The answers are very interesting.

Democrats are defending 18 seats to the 15 being defended by Republicans (this count assumes Jim Jeffords to be with the Democratic Party). As in all Senate elections, a number of seats are safe and some are in trouble. I’ll stick with the possible ones to avoid useless clutter:

1) Jim Jeffords (I-VT) is retiring. His seat will probably go to the Democrats so there is no real race here unless the GOP decides to waste a lot of money for principle’s sake.

2) Lincoln Chaffee (R-RI). Mr. Chaffee is a Democrat in Republican clothing. This is the only reason why he’ll probably win reelection. The Democrats are throwing people at him, but his family is still very popular in Rhode Island. I think they would have a better chance to let him win easily and then convince him to switch parties.

3) George Allen (R-VA). If the Democratic governor (Mark Warner) were running, Mr. Allen would be a lot of hot water, but Mr. Warner is gearing up for the 2008 Presidential race and isn’t wasting money. Mr. Allen should be able to survive other opponents.

4) Rick Santorum (R-PA). This is the first real trouble spot. Pennsylvania is moderate to liberal and Santorum is very conservative. He’s also going to be going up against a very popular Democrat. The only thing that could save him is if he gets Arlen Specter to seriously campaign for him and Mr. Specter is still recovering from cancer treatment. I seriously expect a party switch here.

5) Bill Nelson (D-FL). If Mr. Nelson were going up against Jeb Bush, the contest would be over. But the leading candidate for the GOP is Katherine Harris (yes, that Katherine Harris) so the race falls back into 50-50 range. This will be a very bloody fight and will probably require personal visits by President Bush to take this seat.

6) Mike De(s)wine (R-OH). Dewine could have won reelection easily, but he torqued off conservatives in Ohio with his membership in the gang of 14. He will be forced to spend money fending off more conservative primary candidates. If he survives that, he will do better because it appears that the Democrats are just going to throw Fingerhut forward again. But if the Democrats can find a stronger candidate and Dewine suffers badly in the primaries, the seat could be free to steal.

7) Debbie Stabenow (D-MI). The GOP has vowed to go after this relatively weak freshman senator, but they’ve been unable to grab a strong candidate. Stabenow will probably retain the seat unless labor openly revolts, which is unlikely.

8) Herb Kohl (D-WI). Normally this wouldn’t even be a contest, but former governor and HHS secretary, Tommy Thomson may try for this seat. If he does, the race moves to a toss up due to Thomson’s still high popularity in Wisconsin.

9) Robert Byrd (D-WV). Byrd has not committed as to whether he will run again and he is getting up there in years. If he chooses to run, he’ll probably win reelection, but if the seat is free this is a seat that could easily become Republican.

10) Ben Nelson (D-NE). Nelson treads a very careful line not to tick off his conservative constituents. But the Nebraska Republicans have not been able to coalesce around a strong candidate. If Nelson makes a wrong move or the GOP pulls a strong candidate out of it’s hat, this seat could switch.

11) Kent Conrad (D-ND). Conrad is quite popular but his state is very red. If things get too sour in Washington with the Democratic Party and the Republicans find a strong candidate, they might be able to take this seat.

12) Mark Dayton (D-MN). Dayton is not running and the Minnesota Democratic party has been bleeding badly every since the death of Paul Wellstone. The Republicans will make a strong push for this seat in a blue state and could win it if the Democrats don’t get their act together. Nominating Al Franken probably would not be best move in that direction (yes, he has mentioned running for the seat).

13) Conrad Burns (R-MT). Burns was almost taken down in 2000 and the Democrats have made serious inroads in Montana. However, his 2000 challenger has decided not to run against him and he is a little more prepared this time. Burns will probably survive with room to spare.

There has been idle talk about serious challenges to Maria Cantwell (D-WA) and Daniel Akaka (D-HI), but neither candidate is seen as being in any kind of trouble. If the Republicans want to make more inroads towards the 60 seats, they can’t lose anyone besides Santorum, whom I think is a dead man walking. If they only lose this seat, I believe they can pick up several more seats. Minnesota, Florida, and Nebraska are strong possibilities, while Wisconsin and West Virginia are longer shots. But, I would be very surprised if the Republicans picked up all of these. If, somehow, the GOP did secure all these for 59 seats, I would expect some serious plums to be dangled for a Democrat to turn. Most of the focus would probably be directed at a southern Democrat, such as Mary Landrieu (D-LA) or Mark Pryor (D-AR). But if Joe Lieberman (D-CT) receives too much flak from within his own party for the nomination this year, some cautious overtures may be made in his direction as well.