War on the Horizon

Yes, I know we are already at war, but something big is pinging on the horizon and I think it may pop relatively soon. This comes mostly from two stories that haven't been either in the news or around the blogosphere much lately. They are the shakiness of the Syrian regime and Israel's planned pull out of Gaza.

First, to Syria. Syria actually has been in the news a bunch lately because they were forced out of Lebanon, although they still have intelligence operatives there, and because we've been playing Whack-A-Terrorist on the Syrian border for the past couple of months. Syria is actually a very poor country with very few natural resources. Poverty, the loss of a major trading partner in Baathist Iraq, and the loss of rich territory to exploit in Lebanon lead to a dissatisfied populace. Then throw on an army that isn't doing much and the importation of a bunch of Iraqi Baathist who now don't have too much to do. All this leads to lots of opportunities for someone in the military or an Iraqi Baathist to think that he can do a better job running the country and *poof* coup. The best way for a dictator to avoid that fate is to start a war and encourage rampant nationalism.

This is where the Israeli pullout of Gaza comes in. Israel is scheduled to dismantled a whole bunch of settlements in Gaza and a couple in the West Bank and turn the governing of these territories over to the Palestinians. Except that the settlers who live there are mostly very religious, to the point of militism. They have promised to fight the government tooth and nail rather than leave their homes. This could actually evolve into a serious climate of potential civil war. With the Israeli government distracted Hamas, now emerging as a major party in Palestinian politics, calls for armed resistance to drive out the settlers who won't leave. The Israeli government then balks at having its citizens attacked, in the wrong or not, and fights back. Syria then seizes the initiative and sends in the army from the north to relieve their Muslim brothers in need. Whether or not Jordan and Egypt get involved is questionable. The Egyptian government needs a distraction but they still remember the spanking they got in 1967. Jordan's king is fairly pro-West, but a huge offense on his border might force him to side against Israel, at least in name.

So, would Syria and the other Arabs do this while the US is in the region? Possibly. We're tied up pretty well in Iraq and if AQ flares something in Iraq, or Iran threatens to move its armies through Iraq to aid its ally Syria, we could be pinned down completely and unable to respond. Iran could need to distract its populace as well depending on how the scheduled elections are turning out.

Possible? Maybe not immediately, but all the potentials are there. All it takes is one critical flash point, like the death of Abbas or something else which would allow Hamas to seize the microphone.

And the result? Victory for Israel, but at a nasty cost. Israel's nose got bloodied in 1973 and I think this could be even worse. Desperation house to house fighting, suicide attacks coupled with legitimate army maneuvers. Complete occupation of the West Bank and even the possible destruction of Damascus may be involved. Unfortunately that leaves another war on the horizon. The Arabs pull back and lick their wounds while Israel holds a territorial neutral zone around it, much like the Warsaw Pact nations were between the Soviet Union and NATO.

Maybe it won't happen and I'm reading too much into things. But I think I see buzzards on the horizon.