You Mean... That's It?

Well, its official. Mr. Kerry called to conceed defeat and is scheduled to make his speech around 1pm today. For many of us political junkies, its been a little bit of an emotional letdown given how we were all pumped for a lawyer fight. But, in the end, Mr. Kerry must have felt that the landscape just looked too bleak in Ohio.

In this I must tip my hat to Mrs. X who openly derided my beliefs that Mr. Kerry would win Ohio and that it would come down to Wisconsin. Aside from that, I can at least pat myself on the back and say that I had things right down to the final three. Assuming that Iowa and New Mexico are certified as Bush wins (they're still working out the absentee ballots) I will have been almost totally right. I predicted that of the 5 main toss up states (FL, OH, WI, MN, IA), Mr. Bush would carry Iowa while Mr. Kerry would carry Minnesota. My personal feeling was that Mr. Bush would win Florida and Mr. Kerry would win Ohio with Wisconsin at the final battleground. In truth, I had things reversed. Mr. Kerry is going to win Wisconsin and Ohio is the battleground that appears to be going to Mr. Bush. I thought the job loss numbers would be too large to overcome. Apparently, I was wrong.

So, now that we have decided the election, we can look forward to nearly a year or more of the Democrats tearing themselves apart trying to figure out how they lost this race. My feeling is is that they simply did not select a candidate who commited himself enough. Of the field of 9 in the primary, I personally feel that only 2 or 3 could have beaten Mr. Bush. I think Mr. Edwards would have been a strong contender if he held himself in the debates. I think Mr. Lieberman would have pasted Mr. Bush. Mr. Clark could also have possibly beaten Mr. Bush, although his lack of experience would have cost him among some voters. The rest (including Mr. Dean) I just don't believe could have garned enough of the mainstream vote to take down Mr. Bush.

So, will they learn from this experience? Hard to say. People I work with are already launching Ms. Clinton to the front of the pack for 2008. First, I would focus on getting her reelected against a probable run by Mr. Guiliani. After that, we focus on Mr. Bush's annointed successor. Many eyes are being cast in Mr. McCain's direction. Payment for his support this year, Bush's support for the nomination in 2008. That's just speculation but it certainly wouldn't surprise me. But that's a discussion for another post.