Election Math

Realclearpolitics has an election map that they update with what candidate is doing with each state, much like you have with all the networks. The current map shows Mr. Bush with 232 votes and Mr. Kerry with 207. This assumes Mr. Bush wins New Mexico and Nevada, but he is trending ahead there. Mr. Kerry's number is also a bit off as he is almost certain to win New Hampshire and probably Pennsylvania. So, realistically, it should be 232-232. (This also assumes Mr. Kerry holds Hawaii)

So as our realistic battlegrounds go, its Ohio (20), Florida (27), Iowa (7), Wisconsin (10), and Minnesota (10). Much ballyhoo has been made about Ohio in the past couple of months, especially as no Republican has ever won without it. But, with the shift of some more conservative voters to the southwest, there are several scenarios where Mr. Bush wins without it. The linchpin in all this is really Florida. Florida has the biggest prize between the two men and it could swing either way. But Mr. Kerry has said a couple of things recently that could have irked the large Cuban population in the south, especially with reminding them about the failed Pay of Pigs invasion. We also don't know if the more conservative panhandle voters will turn out in larger numbers than 4 years ago because they were told prior to their polls closing that Mr. Gore had won the state.

Once a candidate has Florida, they only need 11 votes to secure a win. Ohio would do it in one fell swoop, but so would a combination of the other two. One of my most amusing scenarios would be Bush winning Florida, Iowa, and stealing Hawaii away to end up with 270 exactly. This would actually create an even more interesting scenario because one of the West Virginia Republican electors has gone on record as saying that he will not cast his vote for Bush. Whether that means he casts it for Mr. Kerry or casts it away for someone like Mr. McCain is unknown. But if he did, then Mr. Bush would have technically won, but the vote will be tied and have to be settled by the House of Representatives. Barring an act of God, that will remain in Republican hands this election. The Senate would then go on to choose the VP and if the Democrats picked up 2 seats, they would vote for Mr. Edwards as VP. How funny would that be. Guarantee he wouldn't be allowed to do anything with regards to policy.

So those are the numbers. The Midwest is very important but again, it is Florida that will put a candidate in position to win the whole shooting match.

incidentally, regarding the Senate, that's almost as interesting a chess game as President is. The GOP will win the seat in Georgia from the Democrats and the Democrats will win the seat in Illinois from the GOP, offsetting each other. Democrats are looking close to taking the seats in Alaska and Colorado. Republicans are looking like they will pick up seats in North and South Carolina. The real nasty blow would come if the Republicans succeed in taking the seats of Florida and South Dakota and holding Oklahoma. Polls show this being the case, but they are within the margin of error so no one can officially call it yet. The loss of Mr. Daschle would be an especially harsh blow I think, although maybe the Democrats would rally behind a stronger leader then. I've felt that Mr. Daschle was not as decisive and combative as he could be. A better war horse could help the Democrats gain back the Senate in the next election.

It could get even uglier for the Democrats if they also lose Louisiana, but that's in a special 3-way race with 1 Republican and 2 Democrats. I imagine the Louisiana rules are that if no candidate gets over 50%, there's a run-off between the top two. Currently the Republican is polling at 51% but no margin of error was given in the poll. If this scenario holds, it would give the GOP a 54-45 majority, with Mr. Jeffords of Vermont siding with the Democrats. I guess that would hurt Mr. Edwards' shot of being VP in a tie.

But the election will be over soon. While I'll be thankful that the news and commercials will have ended, I will miss the chess match. I guess I'll just have to look forward to 2008. Dream scenario: Clinton-Bayh (D) vs. McCain-Giuliani (R)