Politics Talk

Mrs. X and her mother were talking yesterday and they both agreed that if the election were held today, Bush would probably lose. Happy news for Mrs. X and not so happy news for her mom. The problem is, the election is not being held today, its being held in 4 months. Much could change and all the predictions are just making my head swim. There's an article over at MSNBC that says that Bush should win with somewhere between 52 and 58% of the vote. I don't think anyone really believes that.

Most likely this will be just like 4 years ago where it will go neck and neck right down to the last week and either some bit of outside news will tip the balance or someone will screw the pooch in someway. We should also remember that national polls don't mean jack. While everyone says its dead even with Bush at 46% and Kerry at 45%, they don't take into account what the polls are doing in the states. Its close to tied here in Ohio and in neighboring Pennsylvania and those are the only polls that really matter. So we'll just step back, wait, and see what happens.

Meanwhile, Kerry is starting to crawl out from Bill Clinton's book news and make his own with rumors of who the VP will be. Polls seem to indicate that people want Edwards, but I highly doubt Kerry will do that. He has no reason to pick someone who ran close to him and could challenge him in 4 years. Kerry is going to have enough to worry about if his base erodes and shifts to someone like Hillary Clinton in 2008. Gephardt is a possibility but I don't see that he really adds anything. I wouldn't even guarantee that he could deliver Missouri to Kerry. Richardson withdrew and Graham has too much liability. My own opinion would be for someone like Tom Vilsak of Iowa. It would sew up Iowa and give Kerry a little more credibility in the Midwest where he's likely to be seen as somewhat weak. Evan Bayh of Indiana would also fit this bill fairly well, but I would always favor a governor over another senator. Always play the outsider card. Wes Clark also might grab some attention to shore up the military vote. But troops usually have to be very disaffected before they go against the C-in-C and I'm still not seeing the capital protest rallies. If anything, Kerry keeps drifting towards full support of the war to keep the troop votes in play (he just keeps saying that we need other countries more). So I would still make Vilsak my top choice.

Other than that, I can't say too much. It should be a fun 4th. Mrs. X and I will be burning and eating lots of dead animal and watching much fire in the sky. Hope your 4th is equally as entertaining :)

I don't know the scientific reason behind it, but fire made it good. - Homer Simpson (Flaming Moes)