McClellan Dies

I've been reading Shelby Foote's history of the Civil War. I'm still fairly early in the book, only just starting the Peninsular Campaign, but as I'm fairly familiar with the broad strokes of the war, its given me some time to think of alternate scenarios. Most people like to plan the war based on Lee's battle plan note being lost prior to the battle of Antietem. Of course, this leads to Southern victory and independence.

But I would like to go back to the point at the start of 1862. McClellan had trained the Army of the Potomac well but was too scared to used it, relying heavily on poor intelligence that vastly overrated Confederate strength. In February, he is struck down with typhoid fever, and takes nearly three weeks to recover. But what would have happened if McClellan had died? Prior to McClellan recovering, Lincoln had discussed invasion plans with the former head of the army, General McDowell. McDowell headed one of McClellan's corps and despite his defeat at the battle of Manassas, he was probably the best suited for the job. McClellan had not shared his plans about heading up the James peninsula with anyone by this point, so it stands that once a suitable mourning period was observed (coinciding with the roads south drying), McDowell would have moved his army south. Stonewall Jackson was operating a small army in the Shenandoah that would have drained some of McDowell's resources, but he probably still would have had around 100,000 men at his disposal. Johnston had backed up to Fredericksburg at this point. He might have stood and waited, but historical papers indicate that he was thinking about consolidating his lines further in front of Richmond. With General Burnside in North Carolina and threatening Norfolk, its probable that Johnston would not have been able to heavily call on either armies in the southeastern portion of Virginia (around 10,000 men each). So he would have faced McDowell, outnumbered close to 3:1. In all likelihood, Johnston would have lost the battle and possibly Richmond. Lee might have assumed command at this point, but McDowell would not have been bullied like McClellan was. With his resources dwindling Lee might have been forced to surrender or go to guerilla warfare. Either way, the war in the east might have ended in 1862 if one man had died early.