Oscar Thoughts

Well, Sean Astin got his wish. I read an interview with him a few weeks ago where he discussed not getting nominated for Best Supporting Actor in the Oscars. He was a little disappointed but he said the award didn't mean that much to him. He was really setting his sights on Best Ensemble at SAG. Given that the Screen Actors Guild awards are voted on strictly by your peers, I imagine it feels a lot more rewarding to get those in the long run, although there is still all the glamour of the Oscars.

That Johnny Depp won the SAG for best actor is rather surprising. Indeed, it throws the best actor oscar up for grabs. Despite there being five people nominated, lets not kid ourselves. Only three are in contention: Depp, Sean Penn, and Bill Murray. Despite his SAG win, I just can't see the academy voting for Depp. The movie was a big Disney action-adventure and no matter how funny and enjoyable you are to watch, its just not the kind of movie that earns people Oscar statues.

So we're back to Penn vs. Murray. Penn would seem to have the edge. Gritty, tragic crime drama vs. aloof, quirky comedy. I also think there is some disdain for people who rise from the stand-up ranks in the academy. You have to be vetted through a different process to get real respect. That being said, I'm not giving the award to Penn yet. Murray still commands enough respect in some circles, plus there is a great like for Sophia Coppola running though Hollywood right now. I'd make her almost a shoe-in for best original screenplay. So, Murray could take it in a close vote.

I don't think there will be too many surprises this year. Unlike some years, there seems to be some very big favorites going into it. The other three acting statues should go like SAG and the golden globes: Tim Robbins for Best Supporting Actor, Rene Zellwigger for Best Supporting Actress, and Charlize Theron for Best Actress. I'm probably going to mute Theron's speech because I don't want to hear about her mother anymore.

But, does RotK take Best Picture and Director? I think so. Director seems the more sure thing to me. Because the academy has seen only to give RotK technical nominations, its running a bit like Saving Private Ryan vs. Shakespeare in Love right now: quite sure of director, not so sure about picture. If I'm right and Mystic River takes both male acting trophies, it may make its name known. However, I think it will take at least one more win to legitimately say that it can win Best Picture. As I recall, Shakespeare in Love took some costume and makeup awards as well. So, while I'm not as confident as some writers for Entertainment Weekly, I think RotK will come out on top next Sunday. Should be fun.