With Mr. Cruz's withdrawal from the Republican race, Mr. Trump has all but sealed the nomination. He'll officially get the number of delegates needed on June 7, but the lack of any opposition means that Mr. Trump can now focus exclusively on the Democratic nominee.
That will be Mrs. Clinton, but Mr. Sanders is not going away quietly. He won the Indiana primary last night, although Mrs. Clinton still leads him in pledged delegates by nearly 300 (1704-1414). Even further against him is that of the 714 unpledged delegates, almost 500 have stated that they will be voting for Mrs. Clinton at the convention, although they are free to change their minds.
It is this use of the superdelegates that gives Mr. Sanders the grist to keep going and why pulling over his supporters will take a little more effort than just getting the nomination. It takes 2383 delegates to win the Democratic nomination. Mrs. Clinton currently has 1704 pledged delegates, meaning that she would need to win 679 of the remaining 933 pledged delegates available know for an absolute certainty that she had the nomination. Given that the Democratic primaries are divided proportionally, this is effectively impossible unless Mr. Sanders more or less drops dead.
But, when you throw in that Mrs. Clinton has received verbal pledges from nearly 500 superdelegates, her winning requirement drops to only about 180 delegates. This means that she will declare effective victory on June 7, regardless of whether she wins any states that night or earlier. Of course, she will win some of the states (New Jersey for example), but it is not out of the realm of possibility that Mrs. Clinton may not win another contest until June 7. The contests in between then and now are Guam (May 7), West Virginia (May 10), Kentucky and Oregon (May 17), the Virgin Islands (June 4) and Puerto Rico (June 5). None of these states/territories are in Mrs. Clinton's wheelhouse save perhaps Kentucky and Puerto Rico, but expect Mr. Sanders to be competitive in all of them.
So you have the possibility of Mr. Sanders winning a number of contests leading up to the big day of June 7 and then she will declare victory before all the votes are even fully counted there. I personally would expect Mrs. Clinton to win both New Jersey and California so she will probably wait until the California polls have closed at least if not until California is declared for her, depending on how long that will take. If this does happen, Mr. Sanders' followers might be a bit put out. Mrs. Clinton did not win outright in their mind (in contrast to Mr. Trump, who did despite all the talk of a brokered convention) and was instead anointed by the party insiders. Granted, she will have more pledged delegates that Mr. Sanders, but the absence of outright victory is likely going to stick in the craw of these supporters.
This is where it will be dangerous for Mrs. Clinton. Knowing that she has these 500 superdelegates means that she knows that she is going to be the nominee and with the Republican contest now over, will be expected to pivot to focus her fire on Mr. Trump. However, with Mr. Sanders refusing to go away, and especially if he continues to win states prior to Mrs. Clinton securing her victory, his supporters are likely going to get even angrier at the establishment. I seriously doubt that a significant amount will cross over to vote for Mr. Trump, but given the youth contingent that makes up Mr. Sanders' followers, a number of them might stay home and turning out the youth and minority vote was a major factor in Mr. Obama's two victories.
So we shall see how it goes. Mr. Trump is going to square off against Mrs. Clinton and we'll be playing the Veep-stakes game now, but as much work as Mr. Trump has in front of him to mend fences, Mrs. Clinton likely has just as big of a job and she still has someone breaking boards in her backyard.
Wednesday, May 04, 2016
Thursday, April 28, 2016
The Red Bull Marches Forth
With the sweep of the primaries on Tuesday, Mr. Trump has mathematically eliminated Mr. Cruz from winning in the first round of balloting at the Republican National Convention and poised himself even closer to winning the nomination outright, contrary to opinions regarding this ability only weeks ago.
Mr. Trump currently sits with 956 pledged delegates. He also has the support of about 40 unpledged delegates, most from their direct election in Pennsylvania on Tuesday. While these are not obligated to vote for him in the first round, they have stated their intention to do so. This leaves Mr. Trump just shy of 1,000 delegates and just under 250 short of what he would need to win the nomination outright. In the remaining ten state contests, there are 502 delegates available, meaning that Mr. Trump only has to secure about half of those to win the nomination.
It is mathematically impossible for Mr. Trump to secure the nomination before June 7 as the five contests scheduled before this date only amount to 199 delegates and two of those contests (Oregon and Washington) are proportional allocation, similar to Democratic primaries, so that further decreases the amount of delegates that Mr. Trump would win there. But in these five contests, it is not unreasonable to suggest that Mr. Trump could walk away with between 100 and 150 delegates. If he does so, he would only need between 100 and 150 delegates of the 303 delegates available (172 from California alone where Mr. Trump has been polling well) to win.
So lets break down the various states and see how this might play out:
Indiana - May 3 - 57 delegates: 30 delegates are given to the statewide winner and 27 delegates are given to the winners of each congressional district (3 per district). Mr. Trump is currently polling ahead of Mr. Cruz by about 6 points. If that holds, Mr. Trump would get the 30 state delegates and probably around half of the district delegates, unless the voting is balanced throughout the state, which would give him even more. Either way, a Trump win would probably net around 45 delegates.
Nebraska - May 10 - 36 delegates: 27 delegates are available to the overall winner while 9 more are available through the districts. However, the district allocation is based on the statewide vote, not the individual district, although each district will select the delegates at individual district conventions. Not much polling exists for Nebraska but Mr. Cruz has done well in the plain states so the pick up for Mr. Trump is likely to be minimal here.
West Virginia - May 10 - 34 delegates: West Virginia does a direct election of delegates but those delegates state their preferences, including being unbound, so it will work more or less like a direct election (assuming the delegate keeps to their pledge of supporting said candidate in the first round). 25 delegates are elected statewide while 9 are via districts. Like Nebraska, pollsters are not paying much attention to West Virginia but in the Virginia primary, Mr. Trump did well in the Appalachian areas that border West Virginia. Likewise, he defeated Mr. Kasich in the border regions of Ohio. I would expect Mr. Trump to do very well here, perhaps even well enough to pocket all 34 delegates.
Oregon - May 17 - 28 delegates: Oregon has proportional allocation. 13 delegates to be split via the statewide results. 15 more to be split likely 2-1 in each district. All polling has pretty much been reserved for California so there are no hard numbers, but if Mr. Trump's polling in California reflects similar attitudes up north, he could be looking at between 15 and 17 delegates from the contest.
Washington - May 24 - 44 delegates: Like Oregon, Washington proportionally allocates its 14 statewide delegates. Unlike Oregon, there is a winner-take-most allocation in the 10 congressional districts. I'm going to assume that means that the winner will be the beneficiary of any close allocation and that there may also be a threshold (like 50%) where the winner would then get all delegates. Mr. Trump would likely take most of the delegates on the West side of the Cascades while Mr. Cruz would likely be the winner on the Eastern side. I still think that would get Mr. Trump the majority of the delegates so 25-30 delegates would not be an unreasonable assumption.
California - June 7 - 172 delegates: This is the big one. California gives 13 delegates to the overall winner and unless the polling changes, that will be Mr. Trump. But you have 53 congressional districts, all winner-take-all at 3 delegates a pop. Obviously Mr. Cruz and perhaps even Mr. Kasich will secure a win in several districts. But if Mr. Trump holds his upper 40's percentage, he is likely to win nearly half of the congressional district allocation, perhaps more depending on how the vote spread is. Barring a major change of fortune, I don't see how Mr. Trump walks away from California with less than 90 delegates and over 100 is not unreasonable. Taking the lower sums from above, that would give Mr. Trump around 200 delegates and he would need only about 40 or 50 more from the remaining contests.
Montana - June 7 - 27 delegates: Montana is winner-take-all. Given his performance in the plains, I would expect Mr. Cruz to take all 27 of these delegates.
New Jersey - June 7 - 51 delegates: Like Montana, New Jersey is winner-take-all. This is where I think the math breaks for Mr. Trump. With the endorsement of Governor Christie and his own New York roots, Mr. Trump should take these 51 delegates going away. If the minimal math holds and Mr. Trump walks into June 7 needing only between 100 and 150 delegates, it is likely that California and New Jersey will be what delivers victory to him.
New Mexico - June 7 - 24 delegates: New Mexico is proportional with 15 statewide and 9 CD delegates. If Arizona, Nevada, and California are any guide, Mr. Trump will win the state but Mr. Cruz will likely be near his heels giving this a closer to 50-50 split on delegates.
South Dakota - June 7 - 29 delegates: South Dakota is winner-take-all like Montana and I think likely to give it's votes to Mr. Cruz unless there is a swing of inevitability for Mr. Trump.
Polling could change at any time but I'm starting to think that even if Mr. Trump uses a flamethrower on a basket of live puppies, he will still not lose much support in the remaining contests. Even if they don't necessarily like him, many Republicans seem to be desperate to avoid a brokered convention and are giving in to the inevitability of Mr. Trump being the nominee. It doesn't hurt that this does serve as a middle finger to the party leadership so even if they don't necessarily like him, they like the message it sends.
Like much of the media, I think the Indiana race is going to be an interesting to watch. Mr. Cruz has planted a flag there and I think this may be the hill he dies on, although he won't admit to being dead until Mr. Trump notches the full 1,237 in bound delegates no less. But if Mr. Trump walks away with the state win and better than the 45 delegates I'm guestimating him at, it could break the last remaining sense of resistance and even the plain states could start to break for Mr. Trump in a bid for party cohesion.
Of course, predicting how Mr. Trump will do against Ms. Clinton in November will be an even more drawn out tale.
Wednesday, January 20, 2016
Friday, January 15, 2016
Divisional Round Guesses (2016 Edition)
I so wanted to get the Pittsburgh/Cincinnati game wrong and I almost did. But I can't control it if a team decides to implode. Likewise with Minnesota. How do you shank a 27-yard kick? But that makes me 4 for 4 so far in picks.
Anyway, here's the slate for this weekend:
Game 1: #5 Kansas City Chiefs at #2 New England Patriots
It's almost unfortunate that the NFL is putting what will probably be the best game on first. Every logical mind says that you just don't bet against the Patriots in New England, no matter how hot the other team is. But, there is a chance. Tom Brady is about the only healthy person on that team and it shows in that the Patriots have lost four of their last six games. Some of the key players will be coming back from their injuries for this game and certainly the bye week helped with that. But Kansas City is on a roll and New England does not have that good of a defense. If Brady can get his players going, they can win a shootout game. Likewise, if Jeremy Maclin re-injures himself in any way, Kansas City will lose a lot in the passing game and could become one dimensional. But with the deck stacked as it is, I'm inclined to think that the Chiefs will maintain their momentum, albeit in a close game.
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
Game 2: #5 Green Bay Packers at #2 Arizona Cardinals
Washington failed to do what must happen to beat Green Bay: get after Aaron Rogers. I don't see Arizona having that problem. Arizona was laughably bad in their final game against Seattle, but there may have been players pulled in that game. Or the players realized that it didn't matter since Carolina was winning their game. I don't expect Arizona to be distracted in this game. Green Bay is a walking wounded team and they are going to be missing even more players when they square off Saturday night. There is always a chance that the Green Bay offensive line manages to get Rogers some protection, but I doubt it. I think a high sack count and a lopsided night for Arizona is in the offering.
Pick: Arizona Cardinals
Game 3: #6 Seattle Seahawks at #1 Carolina Panthers
I think if this were any other team than Seattle, Carolina could be caught napping, looking ahead to the NFC Championship. But Carolina hates Seattle. They were furious at being knocked out of the playoffs by the Seahawks last year and their intensity when they played Seattle earlier this season showed. The Seahawks looked a bit more human and should have lost to Minnesota. But they'll be playing in warmer weather and with another playoff victory under their belt. Still, Carolina was able to beat Seattle in Seattle. Now Carolina will be on their own turf and well rested. Seattle may hang in for a bit, but I expect Carolina will bring down the hammer as the game progresses.
Pick: Carolina Panthers
Game 4: #6 Pittsburgh Steelers at #1 Denver Broncos
This should be the most lopsided game of all. Ben Roethlesburger is injured and if he plays, may not be able to throw the ball further than ten yards. DeAngelo Williams is still listed as day-to-day and may not be available. Antonio Brown has been officially ruled out for the game. So you have a potential of a back up QB, a back up RB, and no #1 WR going up against the #1 defense in the NFL. The only way Pittsburgh stays in this game is if Peyton Manning throws multiple interceptions that are returned for TDs and I doubt the coaching staff is going to let him. Denver will focus on the run and Manning will be kept to short passes, with an occasional deep ball to keep the Pittsburgh defense from cheating up too far. If he throws a pick on a deep route, it'll function more like a punt with less potential of being run back. I also expect Manning to be on a short leash with Oswiller being ready to go if Manning starts throwing picks. Again, like the Cincinnati game, I can't see Pittsburgh winning without Denver actively working to lose the game.
Pick: Denver Broncos
Anyway, here's the slate for this weekend:
Game 1: #5 Kansas City Chiefs at #2 New England Patriots
It's almost unfortunate that the NFL is putting what will probably be the best game on first. Every logical mind says that you just don't bet against the Patriots in New England, no matter how hot the other team is. But, there is a chance. Tom Brady is about the only healthy person on that team and it shows in that the Patriots have lost four of their last six games. Some of the key players will be coming back from their injuries for this game and certainly the bye week helped with that. But Kansas City is on a roll and New England does not have that good of a defense. If Brady can get his players going, they can win a shootout game. Likewise, if Jeremy Maclin re-injures himself in any way, Kansas City will lose a lot in the passing game and could become one dimensional. But with the deck stacked as it is, I'm inclined to think that the Chiefs will maintain their momentum, albeit in a close game.
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
Game 2: #5 Green Bay Packers at #2 Arizona Cardinals
Washington failed to do what must happen to beat Green Bay: get after Aaron Rogers. I don't see Arizona having that problem. Arizona was laughably bad in their final game against Seattle, but there may have been players pulled in that game. Or the players realized that it didn't matter since Carolina was winning their game. I don't expect Arizona to be distracted in this game. Green Bay is a walking wounded team and they are going to be missing even more players when they square off Saturday night. There is always a chance that the Green Bay offensive line manages to get Rogers some protection, but I doubt it. I think a high sack count and a lopsided night for Arizona is in the offering.
Pick: Arizona Cardinals
Game 3: #6 Seattle Seahawks at #1 Carolina Panthers
I think if this were any other team than Seattle, Carolina could be caught napping, looking ahead to the NFC Championship. But Carolina hates Seattle. They were furious at being knocked out of the playoffs by the Seahawks last year and their intensity when they played Seattle earlier this season showed. The Seahawks looked a bit more human and should have lost to Minnesota. But they'll be playing in warmer weather and with another playoff victory under their belt. Still, Carolina was able to beat Seattle in Seattle. Now Carolina will be on their own turf and well rested. Seattle may hang in for a bit, but I expect Carolina will bring down the hammer as the game progresses.
Pick: Carolina Panthers
Game 4: #6 Pittsburgh Steelers at #1 Denver Broncos
This should be the most lopsided game of all. Ben Roethlesburger is injured and if he plays, may not be able to throw the ball further than ten yards. DeAngelo Williams is still listed as day-to-day and may not be available. Antonio Brown has been officially ruled out for the game. So you have a potential of a back up QB, a back up RB, and no #1 WR going up against the #1 defense in the NFL. The only way Pittsburgh stays in this game is if Peyton Manning throws multiple interceptions that are returned for TDs and I doubt the coaching staff is going to let him. Denver will focus on the run and Manning will be kept to short passes, with an occasional deep ball to keep the Pittsburgh defense from cheating up too far. If he throws a pick on a deep route, it'll function more like a punt with less potential of being run back. I also expect Manning to be on a short leash with Oswiller being ready to go if Manning starts throwing picks. Again, like the Cincinnati game, I can't see Pittsburgh winning without Denver actively working to lose the game.
Pick: Denver Broncos
Tuesday, January 05, 2016
Wild Card Round Guesses (2016 Edition)
There were a couple of close calls and a few odd turnouts but the field is set for the playoffs so it's time for me to make all my very wrong guesses.
Byes:
AFC: #1 Denver Broncos, #2 New England Patriots
NFC: #1 Carolina Panthers, #2 Arizona Cardinals
Game 1: #5 Kansas City Chiefs at #4 Houston Texans
The Chiefs have to be annoyed right now. Both the Bengals and the Chargers came rather close to knocking off the Broncos in the last two weeks of the regular season, which would have given the Chiefs the division title and a home game. A bye was out of reach, but it would have been nice to play at Arrowhead. Nevertheless, they are riding a hot streak right now. Houston hit their apex right after the bye when they beat the Bengals on Monday night and then went on a bit of a hot streak. Still, they are not the pushover team many expected the AFC South champion to be. But it would be foolish to go against the Chiefs right now. This is also the Chiefs' first opportunity to finally get rid of the bad taste of the loss to Indianapolis in the first round of the playoffs two years ago, when they allowed Indy to come back from a 28-point deficit.
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
Game 2: #6 Pittsburgh Steelers at #3 Cincinnati Bengals
The Steelers did what they had to do in beating Cleveland and the NY Jets obliged by laying down against Buffalo. The Bengals meanwhile looked okay in beating the Ravens but still needed Denver to go down. Andy Dalton got his cast off this week but no announcement has been made about whether he will be available to play. Likewise, Steelers RB DeAngelo Williams is listed as day to day. Neither team is likely to be playing at full strength and given both coach's tendency to make odd calls in the situation, this game will likely come down to who makes the least number of mistakes. In this case, since it is likely that McCarron will be starting, I'm inclined to give the veteran Ben Rothlesburger the edge. Yes, he makes poor decisions and is also banged up, but the Steelers have proven themselves in pressure situations in the recent past with a lineup similar to this one. The Bengals have the weight of four previous one and dones on them and I will only believe it when I see it.
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers
Game #3: #6 Seattle Seahawks at #3 Minnesota Vikings
There are two questions in this game: Will Adrian Peterson be able to run on Seattle and will the Minnesota defense be able to contain the Seattle offense? When they last met, Seattle blew the doors off Minnesota in Minnesota and the answer to both questions was no. If Seattle can repeat that strategy, they should win easily. Minnesota will adjust but if AP in contained, I don't see Teddy Bridgewater as being good enough to keep the offense on the field and prevent the defense from getting worn out. I think this game will be closer, but Seattle has been on a hot streak aside from the speed bump against the Rams. I won't pick against them just yet.
Pick: Seattle Seahawks
Game #4: #5 Green Bay Packers at #4 Washington Redskins
Like the AFC South, Washington has emerged as a bit better than the pushover we expected the NFC East winner to be. Likewise, Green Bay can't seem to get their act together for any stretch of games. They can beat bad teams, but they haven't had a good win since they beat the Vikings in Minnesota before Thanksgiving. However, Washington kept pulling out squeekers against sub-500 teams. They won by ten against the Bills but otherwise haven't faced a good team since they got destroyed by Carolina also right before Thanksgiving. The home field will help but the bright lights are going to expose nerves. Rodgers and company has been in this situation before and that might be enough to overcome the deficiencies that have come up with all the injuries. Washington can win this game and many people will probably pick them to do so, but like with Pittsburgh, I'm going with experience in the first round.
Pick: Green Bay Packers
Byes:
AFC: #1 Denver Broncos, #2 New England Patriots
NFC: #1 Carolina Panthers, #2 Arizona Cardinals
Game 1: #5 Kansas City Chiefs at #4 Houston Texans
The Chiefs have to be annoyed right now. Both the Bengals and the Chargers came rather close to knocking off the Broncos in the last two weeks of the regular season, which would have given the Chiefs the division title and a home game. A bye was out of reach, but it would have been nice to play at Arrowhead. Nevertheless, they are riding a hot streak right now. Houston hit their apex right after the bye when they beat the Bengals on Monday night and then went on a bit of a hot streak. Still, they are not the pushover team many expected the AFC South champion to be. But it would be foolish to go against the Chiefs right now. This is also the Chiefs' first opportunity to finally get rid of the bad taste of the loss to Indianapolis in the first round of the playoffs two years ago, when they allowed Indy to come back from a 28-point deficit.
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
Game 2: #6 Pittsburgh Steelers at #3 Cincinnati Bengals
The Steelers did what they had to do in beating Cleveland and the NY Jets obliged by laying down against Buffalo. The Bengals meanwhile looked okay in beating the Ravens but still needed Denver to go down. Andy Dalton got his cast off this week but no announcement has been made about whether he will be available to play. Likewise, Steelers RB DeAngelo Williams is listed as day to day. Neither team is likely to be playing at full strength and given both coach's tendency to make odd calls in the situation, this game will likely come down to who makes the least number of mistakes. In this case, since it is likely that McCarron will be starting, I'm inclined to give the veteran Ben Rothlesburger the edge. Yes, he makes poor decisions and is also banged up, but the Steelers have proven themselves in pressure situations in the recent past with a lineup similar to this one. The Bengals have the weight of four previous one and dones on them and I will only believe it when I see it.
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers
Game #3: #6 Seattle Seahawks at #3 Minnesota Vikings
There are two questions in this game: Will Adrian Peterson be able to run on Seattle and will the Minnesota defense be able to contain the Seattle offense? When they last met, Seattle blew the doors off Minnesota in Minnesota and the answer to both questions was no. If Seattle can repeat that strategy, they should win easily. Minnesota will adjust but if AP in contained, I don't see Teddy Bridgewater as being good enough to keep the offense on the field and prevent the defense from getting worn out. I think this game will be closer, but Seattle has been on a hot streak aside from the speed bump against the Rams. I won't pick against them just yet.
Pick: Seattle Seahawks
Game #4: #5 Green Bay Packers at #4 Washington Redskins
Like the AFC South, Washington has emerged as a bit better than the pushover we expected the NFC East winner to be. Likewise, Green Bay can't seem to get their act together for any stretch of games. They can beat bad teams, but they haven't had a good win since they beat the Vikings in Minnesota before Thanksgiving. However, Washington kept pulling out squeekers against sub-500 teams. They won by ten against the Bills but otherwise haven't faced a good team since they got destroyed by Carolina also right before Thanksgiving. The home field will help but the bright lights are going to expose nerves. Rodgers and company has been in this situation before and that might be enough to overcome the deficiencies that have come up with all the injuries. Washington can win this game and many people will probably pick them to do so, but like with Pittsburgh, I'm going with experience in the first round.
Pick: Green Bay Packers
Tuesday, December 29, 2015
Post Season Almost Set
AFC
1. New England Patriots - The Pats have a first round bye, but will need to win against Miami to secure the #1 seed. After the embarrassing loss to the Jets, that is a fairly safe bet.
2. Denver Broncos - With the win against the Bengals, the Broncos have secured a playoff spot. They are in control of their own destiny as well. If they win against San Diego, they win the West and lock the #2 seed. If the Pats somehow lose to Miami, Denver will take the #1 seed with a win. But, if the Broncos lose to San Diego, they could fall as far as the #5 seed if both the Bengals and Chiefs win their respective games.
3. Cincinnati Bengals - Conservative play calling in the face of a rookie starter doomed the Bengals against Denver. The Bengals can still get the #2 seed but only if Denver loses. If the Bengals somehow lose to the Ravens, they could still get the #2 seed but that would require Kansas City to win against Oakland in addition to Denver winning. Given that a Denver loss to San Diego is unlikely, the #3 seed seems like a safe bet.
4. Houston Texans - If the Bengals had won against Denver, it would have secured Houston the South. But if they win against Jacksonville or Indianapolis loses to Tennessee, they will take the title and the #4 seed. Indy could take it but given they will probably starting their third-string QB, that is unlikely.
5. Kansas City Chiefs - Again, had the Bengals beaten Denver, the Chiefs would have moved into the lead in the West. Now, they must hope that Denver loses against San Diego for them to have a chance. If that were to happen, the Chiefs must beat Oakland to take the title and the #3 seed. If the Chiefs lose to Oakland, they will stay the #5 seed as I believe they have the tie-breaker against the Jets.
6. NY Jets - With the Steelers loss to the Ravens and the Jets win over the Patriots, the Jets have moved into the driver's seat for the last wild card spot. If the Jets win against Buffalo, they are in. Likewise, if the Steelers lose to Cleveland, they are in. If the Jets lose and the Steelers win, Pittsburgh jumps back up and takes the #6 spot.
NFC
1. Carolina Panthers - With the first loss to the Falcons, the Panthers failed to clinch home-field. Now they will have to win against Tampa Bay to secure home field. If they somehow lose, they could lose the #1 seed to Arizona if they win.
2. Arizona Cardinals - Arizona has the #2 seed but can only move to the #1 if the Panthers lose. Both teams have secured a first-round bye, it's just a question of who gets what rank.
3. Green Bay Packers - Green Bay currently has the division lead but they are tied with Minnesota and the two teams play for the whole shooting match Sunday night. The winner gets the crown and the #3 seed. The loser will be a wild card, probably the #5.
4. Washington Redskins - The Redskins have won the East and are locked into the #4 seed. Nothing will change that so expect to see the B-team take the field against Dallas.
5. Minnesota Vikings - See #3
6. Seattle Seahawks - Seattle has secured a playoff spot, but their loss to the Rams knocked them down a peg. Their seeding is going to depend on how their game against Arizona shakes out and the Green Bay-Minnesota game. If Seattle loses to Arizona, they will be the #6 seed and fly off the face the North Champion. If they win and Green Bay wins, Seattle will vault ahead of Minnesota due to their win against them and take the #5 seed. If Minnesota wins the North, Seattle will stay the #6 seed due to their loss to Green Bay early in the season.
1. New England Patriots - The Pats have a first round bye, but will need to win against Miami to secure the #1 seed. After the embarrassing loss to the Jets, that is a fairly safe bet.
2. Denver Broncos - With the win against the Bengals, the Broncos have secured a playoff spot. They are in control of their own destiny as well. If they win against San Diego, they win the West and lock the #2 seed. If the Pats somehow lose to Miami, Denver will take the #1 seed with a win. But, if the Broncos lose to San Diego, they could fall as far as the #5 seed if both the Bengals and Chiefs win their respective games.
3. Cincinnati Bengals - Conservative play calling in the face of a rookie starter doomed the Bengals against Denver. The Bengals can still get the #2 seed but only if Denver loses. If the Bengals somehow lose to the Ravens, they could still get the #2 seed but that would require Kansas City to win against Oakland in addition to Denver winning. Given that a Denver loss to San Diego is unlikely, the #3 seed seems like a safe bet.
4. Houston Texans - If the Bengals had won against Denver, it would have secured Houston the South. But if they win against Jacksonville or Indianapolis loses to Tennessee, they will take the title and the #4 seed. Indy could take it but given they will probably starting their third-string QB, that is unlikely.
5. Kansas City Chiefs - Again, had the Bengals beaten Denver, the Chiefs would have moved into the lead in the West. Now, they must hope that Denver loses against San Diego for them to have a chance. If that were to happen, the Chiefs must beat Oakland to take the title and the #3 seed. If the Chiefs lose to Oakland, they will stay the #5 seed as I believe they have the tie-breaker against the Jets.
6. NY Jets - With the Steelers loss to the Ravens and the Jets win over the Patriots, the Jets have moved into the driver's seat for the last wild card spot. If the Jets win against Buffalo, they are in. Likewise, if the Steelers lose to Cleveland, they are in. If the Jets lose and the Steelers win, Pittsburgh jumps back up and takes the #6 spot.
NFC
1. Carolina Panthers - With the first loss to the Falcons, the Panthers failed to clinch home-field. Now they will have to win against Tampa Bay to secure home field. If they somehow lose, they could lose the #1 seed to Arizona if they win.
2. Arizona Cardinals - Arizona has the #2 seed but can only move to the #1 if the Panthers lose. Both teams have secured a first-round bye, it's just a question of who gets what rank.
3. Green Bay Packers - Green Bay currently has the division lead but they are tied with Minnesota and the two teams play for the whole shooting match Sunday night. The winner gets the crown and the #3 seed. The loser will be a wild card, probably the #5.
4. Washington Redskins - The Redskins have won the East and are locked into the #4 seed. Nothing will change that so expect to see the B-team take the field against Dallas.
5. Minnesota Vikings - See #3
6. Seattle Seahawks - Seattle has secured a playoff spot, but their loss to the Rams knocked them down a peg. Their seeding is going to depend on how their game against Arizona shakes out and the Green Bay-Minnesota game. If Seattle loses to Arizona, they will be the #6 seed and fly off the face the North Champion. If they win and Green Bay wins, Seattle will vault ahead of Minnesota due to their win against them and take the #5 seed. If Minnesota wins the North, Seattle will stay the #6 seed due to their loss to Green Bay early in the season.
Thursday, December 17, 2015
Return to Football
I sort of took 2015 off from blogging and I can't imagine that I'll continue doing it on anything resembling a regular basis. But I always enjoyed tracking the football playoffs and I thought this year I would continue that.
AFC
1. New England Patriots - No one in the AFC is completely healthy and no one is dominant right now. That being said, New England still has the best record by one game and they are starting to get weapons back from the injury list. They also have officially won the East, the first AFC team to win it's division. Their defense is still not good though. They will probably hold the #1 seed unless fall to the Jets in Week 16 but even then the odds still are favorable that they will keep home field.
2. Cincinnati Bengals - Conference record is the tie-breaker for now against Denver but they two teams will decide things head-to-head in Week 16. The big question is when is Andy Dalton coming back? The Bengals should be good enough to secure the division with a win against San Francisco this week, especially if AJ McCarron doesn't throw a bunch of picks. But a loss to Denver would probably relegate the Bengals to the #3 seed. But I think the Bengals would be fine with the #3 seed if it meant that Dalton was 100% in time for the playoffs. Much will depend on what happens this weekend.
3. Denver Broncos If Denver wins against Cincinnati and the Patriots lose to the NY Jets, Denver could find itself at the #1 seed as they would have tie-breakers against both teams. But if they lose to Cincinnati, #3 is pretty much guaranteed no matter what New England does. I don't know what Manning's status is for the playoffs but it will be interesting to see how Brock Osweiler does against Pittsburgh. If he plays well and Denver wins, he may stay in against Cincinnati. But if Denver goes down for a second week in a row, Manning could be back in for the Monday nighter.
4. Indianapolis Colts - The Colts are tied with Houston right now, but Indy currently has the tiebreaker. Honestly both teams are reeling badly. Indy will be on their #3 QB while Houston will be playing it's back-up. At this point, it is not unreasonable to suggest that Jacksonville could rise up and win this division in the last week. Whoever wins the head-to-head match-up this week has the inside track but this divisional crown will come down to the wire among three less than good teams.
5. Kansas City Chiefs - See below.
6. NY Jets - The Chiefs, Jets, and Pittsburgh Steelers are all tied at 8-5 but the Chiefs and Jets have the tie-breakers that push them ahead of the Steelers. Of all of them, Kansas City has the easiest schedule and will probably keep the #5 spot. It's not impossible for them to win the West still, although they would need Denver to seriously tank. The #6 spot on the other hand is up for grabs. Pittsburgh closes the season against Baltimore and Cleveland, both games they should easily win. So that leaves the game against Denver as the only one they won't be favored in. The Jets have Dallas, New England, and Buffalo to close their season. This is tougher road to hoe. If Pittsburgh loses to Denver, the Jets will have a little breathing room and a loss to New England won't be quite so dire. But this spot will also probably come down to the Week 17 match-ups.
NFC
1. Carolina Panthers - Unless there is major injury that happens, we could save ourselves some trouble and just put Carolina in the Super Bowl now. They will be hosting the NFC playoffs at the very least.
2. Arizona Cardinals - Hot teams can come and spoil the parties, but I think that given the way the NFC has been this year, I'll be a bit disappointed if the NFC Championship game is not Arizona vs. Carolina. Arizona hasn't clinched the division yet, but should do so this weekend.
3. Green Bay Packers - Minnesota has fallen flat over the last couple of weeks and that has allowed Green Bay to retake the division lead. I think Minnesota has a slightly easier schedule though, so the Week 17 match-up between these two teams could decide the division title and the #3 seed.
4. Washington Redskins - Like the AFC South, someone has to win the NFC East and take the #4 seed. Washington has the inside track at the moment despite their being a three-way tie between them, Philadelphia and the NY Giants. I think Washington's schedule also gives them the best opportunity to take the division, but I think the winner is going to be 8-8 at best when Week 17 is done.
5. Seattle Seahawks - See below.
6. Minnesota Vikings - Seattle and Minnesota are pretty much set as rounding out the playoffs. They have a two game lead on everyone else and it's just a matter of how the seeding shakes out. Seattle is hot right now but they are probably too far behind Arizona to catch them for the division so the #5 seed and a trip east is probably in store for them. Minnesota is less hot but still good enough that they should both hold on to the #6 spot and may even challenge Green Bay for the division. Whether they take the division or not, it is somewhat likely that the Week 17 match-up between these two will be replayed the following week in the Wild Card round of the playoffs.
AFC
1. New England Patriots - No one in the AFC is completely healthy and no one is dominant right now. That being said, New England still has the best record by one game and they are starting to get weapons back from the injury list. They also have officially won the East, the first AFC team to win it's division. Their defense is still not good though. They will probably hold the #1 seed unless fall to the Jets in Week 16 but even then the odds still are favorable that they will keep home field.
2. Cincinnati Bengals - Conference record is the tie-breaker for now against Denver but they two teams will decide things head-to-head in Week 16. The big question is when is Andy Dalton coming back? The Bengals should be good enough to secure the division with a win against San Francisco this week, especially if AJ McCarron doesn't throw a bunch of picks. But a loss to Denver would probably relegate the Bengals to the #3 seed. But I think the Bengals would be fine with the #3 seed if it meant that Dalton was 100% in time for the playoffs. Much will depend on what happens this weekend.
3. Denver Broncos If Denver wins against Cincinnati and the Patriots lose to the NY Jets, Denver could find itself at the #1 seed as they would have tie-breakers against both teams. But if they lose to Cincinnati, #3 is pretty much guaranteed no matter what New England does. I don't know what Manning's status is for the playoffs but it will be interesting to see how Brock Osweiler does against Pittsburgh. If he plays well and Denver wins, he may stay in against Cincinnati. But if Denver goes down for a second week in a row, Manning could be back in for the Monday nighter.
4. Indianapolis Colts - The Colts are tied with Houston right now, but Indy currently has the tiebreaker. Honestly both teams are reeling badly. Indy will be on their #3 QB while Houston will be playing it's back-up. At this point, it is not unreasonable to suggest that Jacksonville could rise up and win this division in the last week. Whoever wins the head-to-head match-up this week has the inside track but this divisional crown will come down to the wire among three less than good teams.
5. Kansas City Chiefs - See below.
6. NY Jets - The Chiefs, Jets, and Pittsburgh Steelers are all tied at 8-5 but the Chiefs and Jets have the tie-breakers that push them ahead of the Steelers. Of all of them, Kansas City has the easiest schedule and will probably keep the #5 spot. It's not impossible for them to win the West still, although they would need Denver to seriously tank. The #6 spot on the other hand is up for grabs. Pittsburgh closes the season against Baltimore and Cleveland, both games they should easily win. So that leaves the game against Denver as the only one they won't be favored in. The Jets have Dallas, New England, and Buffalo to close their season. This is tougher road to hoe. If Pittsburgh loses to Denver, the Jets will have a little breathing room and a loss to New England won't be quite so dire. But this spot will also probably come down to the Week 17 match-ups.
NFC
1. Carolina Panthers - Unless there is major injury that happens, we could save ourselves some trouble and just put Carolina in the Super Bowl now. They will be hosting the NFC playoffs at the very least.
2. Arizona Cardinals - Hot teams can come and spoil the parties, but I think that given the way the NFC has been this year, I'll be a bit disappointed if the NFC Championship game is not Arizona vs. Carolina. Arizona hasn't clinched the division yet, but should do so this weekend.
3. Green Bay Packers - Minnesota has fallen flat over the last couple of weeks and that has allowed Green Bay to retake the division lead. I think Minnesota has a slightly easier schedule though, so the Week 17 match-up between these two teams could decide the division title and the #3 seed.
4. Washington Redskins - Like the AFC South, someone has to win the NFC East and take the #4 seed. Washington has the inside track at the moment despite their being a three-way tie between them, Philadelphia and the NY Giants. I think Washington's schedule also gives them the best opportunity to take the division, but I think the winner is going to be 8-8 at best when Week 17 is done.
5. Seattle Seahawks - See below.
6. Minnesota Vikings - Seattle and Minnesota are pretty much set as rounding out the playoffs. They have a two game lead on everyone else and it's just a matter of how the seeding shakes out. Seattle is hot right now but they are probably too far behind Arizona to catch them for the division so the #5 seed and a trip east is probably in store for them. Minnesota is less hot but still good enough that they should both hold on to the #6 spot and may even challenge Green Bay for the division. Whether they take the division or not, it is somewhat likely that the Week 17 match-up between these two will be replayed the following week in the Wild Card round of the playoffs.
Wednesday, December 16, 2015
Tuesday, December 23, 2014
Manning Face Sad
Apparently the Bengals got a little tired of even their own fans saying that they were going to lose last night. They tried in the third quarter, but a strong effort by the defense and a lack of ineptitude on the offense allowed the Bengals to rally to a 37-28 victory.
This does not change the standings in the AFC playoff race that I posted yesterday, but it does have some ripples in terms of overall effect.
First, Cincinnati has now secured a playoff spot. The division crown will be settled in the head to head match-up with Pittsburgh next Sunday night, but both teams are now assured a playoff spot. In fact, the loser of the game will be assured the #5 seed in the playoffs as they will have either a better overall record or a better conference record than whichever team secures the #6 seed.
Second, the Bengals and Steelers will not play each other in the first round of the playoffs. If the Bengals win and Denver wins, the Bengals will get the #3 seed, regardless of what the Colts do. Should the Bengals win and the Broncos lose to Oakland, the Bengals will actually vault over Denver for the #2 seed as they would be a half-game ahead of the Broncos. If Pittsburgh wins, they will get the #3 seed as Denver has the tie-breaker of better division record and the Steelers have the tie-breaker over Indianapolis.
Third, Indianapolis is assured the #4 seed. The Colts lost to Pittsburgh and Denver during the regular season so a tie in the standings goes against them and the Bengals would be a half-game ahead of them in the standings if they win. There is nothing the Colts can do to move up. So expect them to rest just about everybody in the closing match against the Titans.
Fourth, New England has locked home-field advantage. New England has the tie-breaker against Denver so they have secured the #1 seed regardless of how the game against Buffalo goes.
Fifth, the #6 seed comes down to San Diego, Baltimore, Houston, or Kansas City. San Diego plays KC in the final game while Baltimore plays Cleveland, and Houston plays Jacksonville. The equation is pretty simple. If San Diego wins, they get the spot. If Kansas City wins and Baltimore wins, Baltimore gets the spot. If Kansas City wins, Baltimore loses, and Houston wins, Houston gets the spot. If Kansas City wins and Baltimore and Houston lose, Kansas City gets the spot. I personally don't think that Baltimore will lose to Cleveland so I'd say KC and Houston have no real shot, but I also thought it would be simple last year and that didn't work out that way. All three games are at 1 pm so there will be some game time scoreboard watching I would imagine.
On the scheduling note, the four deciding games in the NFC and the Oakland-Dever game have all been moved to 4:30 so the early talk will only be about the AFC #6 seed and then there will be a ton of game updates going on in the late afternoon.
This does not change the standings in the AFC playoff race that I posted yesterday, but it does have some ripples in terms of overall effect.
First, Cincinnati has now secured a playoff spot. The division crown will be settled in the head to head match-up with Pittsburgh next Sunday night, but both teams are now assured a playoff spot. In fact, the loser of the game will be assured the #5 seed in the playoffs as they will have either a better overall record or a better conference record than whichever team secures the #6 seed.
Second, the Bengals and Steelers will not play each other in the first round of the playoffs. If the Bengals win and Denver wins, the Bengals will get the #3 seed, regardless of what the Colts do. Should the Bengals win and the Broncos lose to Oakland, the Bengals will actually vault over Denver for the #2 seed as they would be a half-game ahead of the Broncos. If Pittsburgh wins, they will get the #3 seed as Denver has the tie-breaker of better division record and the Steelers have the tie-breaker over Indianapolis.
Third, Indianapolis is assured the #4 seed. The Colts lost to Pittsburgh and Denver during the regular season so a tie in the standings goes against them and the Bengals would be a half-game ahead of them in the standings if they win. There is nothing the Colts can do to move up. So expect them to rest just about everybody in the closing match against the Titans.
Fourth, New England has locked home-field advantage. New England has the tie-breaker against Denver so they have secured the #1 seed regardless of how the game against Buffalo goes.
Fifth, the #6 seed comes down to San Diego, Baltimore, Houston, or Kansas City. San Diego plays KC in the final game while Baltimore plays Cleveland, and Houston plays Jacksonville. The equation is pretty simple. If San Diego wins, they get the spot. If Kansas City wins and Baltimore wins, Baltimore gets the spot. If Kansas City wins, Baltimore loses, and Houston wins, Houston gets the spot. If Kansas City wins and Baltimore and Houston lose, Kansas City gets the spot. I personally don't think that Baltimore will lose to Cleveland so I'd say KC and Houston have no real shot, but I also thought it would be simple last year and that didn't work out that way. All three games are at 1 pm so there will be some game time scoreboard watching I would imagine.
On the scheduling note, the four deciding games in the NFC and the Oakland-Dever game have all been moved to 4:30 so the early talk will only be about the AFC #6 seed and then there will be a ton of game updates going on in the late afternoon.
Monday, December 22, 2014
2014 Playoffs
I haven't posted much about this football season, mostly because it has been so up and down and no team has seemed like that dominant force who everyone expects to win the Super Bowl. But with one week left, let's take a look at things.
AFC
1. New England Patriots - The Pats have secured a first round bye and in the (unlikely) event that Denver loses tonight, they will secure home field advantage.
2. Denver Broncos - The Broncos have won the West and if they win tonight against the Bengals, they will lock in a first round bye. Because New England won the head-to-head, Denver would need the Pats to lose against Buffalo next week to have a chance at the top spot.
3. Cincinnati Bengals - The only division not set is the North. If the Bengals win against Denver tonight, they'll secure a playoff spot, but I'm skeptical of the Bengals chances. If they lose tonight, Pittsburgh will move into this spot and the Bengals will fall to the #5 spot. It is also possible that if they lose to Denver and lose to Pittsburgh next week, that they miss the playoffs entirely. The game against Pittsburgh will the final game of the season as it has been moved to the Sunday Night game.
4. Indianpolis Colts - The Colts could climb back up to the #3 seed, but since they have secured the division and have essentially no shot at a bye week, they'll probably rest folks next week, which is likely to keep them in the #4 spot.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers - The Steelers have secured a playoff spot and if the Bengals lose tonight, they'll take over the division lead and the #3 spot.
6. San Diego Chargers - Right now the final spot belongs to the Chargers, but they have Baltimore breathing down their necks. As Baltimore is likely to defeat a reeling Cleveland Browns team next week, the Chargers will be facing a must win against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs are technically not eliminated yet, but they would to beat the Chargers and have the Browns beat Baltimore. Possible but not overly likely.
NFC
1. Seattle Seahawks - There is a five-way tie for best record in the NFC so it falls to various tie-breakers to see who has divisional leads and best seeding. Seattle is currently in the driver's seat with the #1 spot. The have a home game against the Rams to close things out and that should be enough to keep them in this spot.
2. Detroit Lions - The Leos square off against Green Bay next week (in Green Bay) to secure the division and the likely #2 seed. Both teams have a better conference record than Dallas so (assuming Seattle wins) the winner will retain the #2 seed while the loser will likely get the #5 seed.
3. Dallas Cowboys - Dallas is actually the only team in the NFC to have won their division, but because of the similar records and various tie-breakers, the only way Dallas can move up to the #2 seed is if both Seattle and Arizona lose (an unlikely scenario). So I would expect Dallas to rest folks next week and be content with the #3 spot.
4. Carolina Panthers - The dregs of the NFC is also the only unsecured spot. Carolina and Atlanta go head-to-head next week to see which losing team gets the #4 spot and a likely date with the North runner-up. Carolina is playing like they did at the beginning of the season, but Atlanta is 5-0 in the division and is unlikely to go away quietly. Still, I wouldn't favor either team in the first round playoff game.
5. Green Bay Packers - As noted earlier, the Packers could end up winning the division. In fact, if they win and Seattle loses, Green Bay could end up with the #1 seed. Or they could lose and fall behind Arizona for the #6 seed. But they are in the playoffs and that's all the really matters.
6. Arizona Cardinals - Arizona got thumped hard last night. At one point they were the best team in the NFC, but they are such a walking wounded team that I'm not holding my breath that they'll field anyone of importance next week against San Francisco. If that happens, the Niners may actually be able to get to .500 and Arizona will stay secure in the #6 spot. Of course it is possible that they could win and that through a unique set of circumstances, end up with the #2 spot. But I would imagine that the Cardinals coaches are already drawing up plans for Dallas.
As for my own predictions, I think things will stay much as they are with only a few changes. In the AFC, I don't have much faith in the Bengals and am expeting Pittsburgh to win the division. In fact, I'm desperately hoping for the Chiefs to win so that the Bengals will even make the playoffs as I do expect the Ravens to beat the Browns.
In the NFC, I expect Green Bay to end up with the #2 spot, which will send Detroit down for a date with Carolina (whom I also expect to win). Everything else will likely stay the same.
AFC
1. New England Patriots - The Pats have secured a first round bye and in the (unlikely) event that Denver loses tonight, they will secure home field advantage.
2. Denver Broncos - The Broncos have won the West and if they win tonight against the Bengals, they will lock in a first round bye. Because New England won the head-to-head, Denver would need the Pats to lose against Buffalo next week to have a chance at the top spot.
3. Cincinnati Bengals - The only division not set is the North. If the Bengals win against Denver tonight, they'll secure a playoff spot, but I'm skeptical of the Bengals chances. If they lose tonight, Pittsburgh will move into this spot and the Bengals will fall to the #5 spot. It is also possible that if they lose to Denver and lose to Pittsburgh next week, that they miss the playoffs entirely. The game against Pittsburgh will the final game of the season as it has been moved to the Sunday Night game.
4. Indianpolis Colts - The Colts could climb back up to the #3 seed, but since they have secured the division and have essentially no shot at a bye week, they'll probably rest folks next week, which is likely to keep them in the #4 spot.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers - The Steelers have secured a playoff spot and if the Bengals lose tonight, they'll take over the division lead and the #3 spot.
6. San Diego Chargers - Right now the final spot belongs to the Chargers, but they have Baltimore breathing down their necks. As Baltimore is likely to defeat a reeling Cleveland Browns team next week, the Chargers will be facing a must win against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs are technically not eliminated yet, but they would to beat the Chargers and have the Browns beat Baltimore. Possible but not overly likely.
NFC
1. Seattle Seahawks - There is a five-way tie for best record in the NFC so it falls to various tie-breakers to see who has divisional leads and best seeding. Seattle is currently in the driver's seat with the #1 spot. The have a home game against the Rams to close things out and that should be enough to keep them in this spot.
2. Detroit Lions - The Leos square off against Green Bay next week (in Green Bay) to secure the division and the likely #2 seed. Both teams have a better conference record than Dallas so (assuming Seattle wins) the winner will retain the #2 seed while the loser will likely get the #5 seed.
3. Dallas Cowboys - Dallas is actually the only team in the NFC to have won their division, but because of the similar records and various tie-breakers, the only way Dallas can move up to the #2 seed is if both Seattle and Arizona lose (an unlikely scenario). So I would expect Dallas to rest folks next week and be content with the #3 spot.
4. Carolina Panthers - The dregs of the NFC is also the only unsecured spot. Carolina and Atlanta go head-to-head next week to see which losing team gets the #4 spot and a likely date with the North runner-up. Carolina is playing like they did at the beginning of the season, but Atlanta is 5-0 in the division and is unlikely to go away quietly. Still, I wouldn't favor either team in the first round playoff game.
5. Green Bay Packers - As noted earlier, the Packers could end up winning the division. In fact, if they win and Seattle loses, Green Bay could end up with the #1 seed. Or they could lose and fall behind Arizona for the #6 seed. But they are in the playoffs and that's all the really matters.
6. Arizona Cardinals - Arizona got thumped hard last night. At one point they were the best team in the NFC, but they are such a walking wounded team that I'm not holding my breath that they'll field anyone of importance next week against San Francisco. If that happens, the Niners may actually be able to get to .500 and Arizona will stay secure in the #6 spot. Of course it is possible that they could win and that through a unique set of circumstances, end up with the #2 spot. But I would imagine that the Cardinals coaches are already drawing up plans for Dallas.
As for my own predictions, I think things will stay much as they are with only a few changes. In the AFC, I don't have much faith in the Bengals and am expeting Pittsburgh to win the division. In fact, I'm desperately hoping for the Chiefs to win so that the Bengals will even make the playoffs as I do expect the Ravens to beat the Browns.
In the NFC, I expect Green Bay to end up with the #2 spot, which will send Detroit down for a date with Carolina (whom I also expect to win). Everything else will likely stay the same.
Tuesday, November 25, 2014
Proposed OH redistricting
Mrs. X read an article a few days ago talking about how gerrymandering is driving a push to political extremes rather than fostering debate and agreement. There is a group petitioning to redraw the Ohio congressional districts when it comes around again in 2021 with an emphasis on geography and population balance. One things mentioned was to try and base the districts on the various counties and not create arbitrary lines running in every direction.
Naturally, I was intrigued by this idea and decided to see if I could create a congressional map based on existing counties with a minimum of division. Ohio has a current population of a little more than 11.5 million and we are allotted 16 congressional districts. If you were to balance this out, each congressional district would have about 725,000 people.
Now, this rule cannot be held precisely. Franklin and Cuyahoga counties are each over a million people (1.16 and 1.28 million respectively). If you cut the counties in two and give each half one congressional district, you fall somewhat short of the 725,000 per district. This also has a cascade effect of pushing up the population requirements in other districts. Still, it's not unreasonable. Franklin county gets the lowest population density with 582,000 people in each district. On the other end, Hamilton county has the highest population density. It takes the whole district and ends up with 802,000 people in it.
But on the whole it comes out to a reasonable balance:
District 2 - 778,000
District 3 - 739,000
District 4 - 731,000
Districts 5 & 6 - 582,000
District 7 - 742,000
District 8 - 750,000District 9 - 728,000
District 10 - 747,000
District 11 - 766,00
Districts 12 & 13 - 640,000District 14 - 797,000
District 15 - 781,000
District 16 - 733,000
At the very least, it would give some level of competetiveness and cohesiveness. It might actually also introduce leaders willing to look for solutions with each other rather than those who run further to the Right or Left since the primary is the only battle of ideas. It also looks a lot better than this:
Wednesday, July 30, 2014
Thursday, July 10, 2014
Monday, July 07, 2014
Monday, June 23, 2014
World Cup Advancement Potential
Because the USA defense fell asleep in the last 30 seconds of the match against Portugal, the US lost the guaranteed bid to the elimination round. But things are not hopeless. In fact, the situation is still pretty good for the USA. They face off against Germany on Thursday while Ghana will face off against Portugal at the same time (preventing any scoreboard watching by either team). They can advance to the next round by the following results:
1. Win against Germany. Obviously this is the best and would let the US win the group and advance to a match against the second place winner in group H (probably Algeria).
2. Draw against Germany. If the US and Germany tie, both teams will end up with 5 points and Germany would win the group due to goal differential. But both teams would have more points than the other two so the US would advance to face Belgium in the next round.
If the USA loses to Germany, it will come down to by how many goals they lose.
3. The USA loses and Portugal and Ghana tie. If Portugal and Ghana tie, they each will only get 1 point that will leave them with 2 points to the US's 4 and the US advances.
4. The USA loses by one goal and Ghana wins by one goal. If the US loses to Germany, they are going to be huge fans of Portugal. But if they lose by only one goal, they're not dead yet. Their goal differential will drop to 0 and if Ghana wins by only one goal, their goal differential will rise to 0. Then it goes to total goals scored. If the US and Ghana are still tied there (the US currently has 4 goals to Ghana's 3), then it goes to head-to-head, where the US has the tie-breaker. Of course, if Ghana wins by 2 or more goals or they end up having a higher total number of goals, Ghana will advance and the US goes home.
5. The USA loses, Portugal wins, and the goal differential is less than 5. Portugal has a goal differential of -4 while the US is at 1. So if Portugal wins, they still have a high hill to climb. Again, a US loss will leave them at a goal differential of 0 or worse while a Portugal win will push them up to -3 or better. But that's still a wide gap. Portugal would need to really pour it on and beat Ghana by 3 or better. Even if the US lost by two goals, they would still finish at -1 and Portugal would need to win by three goals to tie in goal differential. If they did that, Portugal would probably advance because the need to score more goals will probably push their total goals scored number over that of the US. But the odds are still in favor of the US in the event of a Portugal win over Ghana.
Assuming the US does advance to the field of 16, most of the scenarios would have them facing the winner of group H (almost certainly Belgium). Only a win against Germany would set them up against the second place team in group H (currently Algeria, although Russia still has a chance).
If the US managed to get by Belgium, they would likely be facing the powerhouse of Argentina in the next round. Things wouldn't be much better on the other side of the bracket. If the US beat the second place team of group H, they would likely be looking at a match with either France or Italy, two of the top squads in the world.
But that is getting ahead of things. First, win or tie against Germany and then worry about what comes next.
1. Win against Germany. Obviously this is the best and would let the US win the group and advance to a match against the second place winner in group H (probably Algeria).
2. Draw against Germany. If the US and Germany tie, both teams will end up with 5 points and Germany would win the group due to goal differential. But both teams would have more points than the other two so the US would advance to face Belgium in the next round.
If the USA loses to Germany, it will come down to by how many goals they lose.
3. The USA loses and Portugal and Ghana tie. If Portugal and Ghana tie, they each will only get 1 point that will leave them with 2 points to the US's 4 and the US advances.
4. The USA loses by one goal and Ghana wins by one goal. If the US loses to Germany, they are going to be huge fans of Portugal. But if they lose by only one goal, they're not dead yet. Their goal differential will drop to 0 and if Ghana wins by only one goal, their goal differential will rise to 0. Then it goes to total goals scored. If the US and Ghana are still tied there (the US currently has 4 goals to Ghana's 3), then it goes to head-to-head, where the US has the tie-breaker. Of course, if Ghana wins by 2 or more goals or they end up having a higher total number of goals, Ghana will advance and the US goes home.
5. The USA loses, Portugal wins, and the goal differential is less than 5. Portugal has a goal differential of -4 while the US is at 1. So if Portugal wins, they still have a high hill to climb. Again, a US loss will leave them at a goal differential of 0 or worse while a Portugal win will push them up to -3 or better. But that's still a wide gap. Portugal would need to really pour it on and beat Ghana by 3 or better. Even if the US lost by two goals, they would still finish at -1 and Portugal would need to win by three goals to tie in goal differential. If they did that, Portugal would probably advance because the need to score more goals will probably push their total goals scored number over that of the US. But the odds are still in favor of the US in the event of a Portugal win over Ghana.
Assuming the US does advance to the field of 16, most of the scenarios would have them facing the winner of group H (almost certainly Belgium). Only a win against Germany would set them up against the second place team in group H (currently Algeria, although Russia still has a chance).
If the US managed to get by Belgium, they would likely be facing the powerhouse of Argentina in the next round. Things wouldn't be much better on the other side of the bracket. If the US beat the second place team of group H, they would likely be looking at a match with either France or Italy, two of the top squads in the world.
But that is getting ahead of things. First, win or tie against Germany and then worry about what comes next.
Tuesday, May 27, 2014
Monday, April 14, 2014
Tuesday, April 08, 2014
Tuesday, March 25, 2014
Monday, March 10, 2014
Let It Go (Saturation)
The metal version:
The Bob Herzog Traffic Parody version:
The Dad Is Sick of This Song version
Olaf's song is better anyway.
The Bob Herzog Traffic Parody version:
The Dad Is Sick of This Song version
Olaf's song is better anyway.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
