This Isn't Funny

There are many ways to point out the reality of something being very funny for just it's shear stupidity or over the topness. This situation is not funny no matter how you try to poke at it:

DEAR GOD!

I hope and pray that this is a photoshop; because if it is real, it's way too messed up for me:

Wisdom

"There is no indispensable man in a democracy. When a republic comes to a point where a man is indispensable, then we have a Caesar. I do not believe that the fate of the nation should depend upon the life or health or welfare of any one man."

-- Harry S Truman

Super Bowl Set

Well, I was half right; although I think I gave the Arizona Cardinals a better chance than some people. It seemed that many people were picking Philadelphia but they were leaving themselves an opening that Arizona might win. Good thing too. I didn’t really watch the Pittsburgh-Baltimore game as I don’t care for either team, but I did enjoy the Arizona-Philly game. I was hoping that Arizona would win as I have a soft spot for Kurt Warner and I just like rooting for the underdog. It was a good game and the final Arizona drive was quite impressive. Reasonable minds can differ on whether a penalty should have been called on that 4th down pass for the Eagles. I didn’t see anything that seemed that brazen, but I also prefer a slightly rougher form of football.

Vegas has opened the line for Pittsburgh by 7. I’m not at all surprised for several reasons. First, defense always win championships. Arizona’s defense has stepped up and that has been key to their getting to the Super Bowl. But Pittsburgh has the best defense in the entire NFL this year and that will likely trump Arizona’s high powered offense.

Second, taken as a whole, the AFC has been considered the tougher conference for the past few years and the Giant’s rise to the top of the league during the regular season did nothing to counteract this feeling. Arizona in particular is probably viewed as soft in relation to the battle tested Steelers.

Third, the Steelers just had a better record (12-4) and against better teams. Arizona finished 9-7 but six of those wins came against the rest of their division (San Francisco, Seattle, St. Louis) who were a combined 13-35. With a two week layoff, people just expect Arizona to return to earth a bit and we’ll see the regular season versions of these teams, of which Pittsburgh was much better.

Mr. A informed us three years ago that the dish of Pittsburgh would be perogies. I'm not quite sure what the dish for Arizona would be. Something spicy and Mexican oriented I guess.

Hopefully, it’ll be a good game, but I’m not optimistic. I’m also unsure about the ads since the commercials have really stunk for the past few years. It very much seems like the ad agencies aren’t even trying or are just going for the cheap laugh. We’ll see I guess.

Squee Up BOY!

Payback's a bitch:

Two captured terrorists interviewed by Maariv/NRG say that Hamas was not expecting Israel's response to the escalation in missile attacks on Israeli targets that preceded Operation Cast Lead. One of them, a 52-year-old victim of a premature detonation who had already done time in an Israeli jail, said, "Hamas took a gamble. We thought, at worst Israel will come and do something from the air - something superficial. They'll come in and go out. We never thought that we would reach the point where fear will swallow the heart and the feet will want to flee. You [Israel] are fighting like you fought in '48. What got into you all of a sudden?"

Three Birds and a Hammer

Well, to say that I was wrong when it came to the football games would be something of an understatement. That Baltimore and Philadelphia won is not a huge shock, although it went against my picks, but Arizona winning was little short of amazing. Arizona was 9-7, having never won in the Eastern Time Zone this season (0-5). Carolina was the only team who was perfect at home. Arizona was missing one of their star receivers while having to go up against a two fisted running attack.

Yet the Cardinals won. One of the commentators mentioned that the Cardinals must have seen something on film when it came to Carolina’s passing game because they were stepping in front of receivers and jumping routes all over the place. Hat’s off to them for confounding the experts.

So we now have Baltimore at Pittsburgh in the AFC and Philadelphia at Arizona in the NFC. On the AFC side, this will be the third time the Steelers and Ravens have clashed this season. It’s hard to win three times in one season, but I still don’t trust Baltimore’s offense enough to suggest that they are going to put up enough points. Baltimore’s defense is good but Pittsburgh will find ways to drive the field for some points. Plus, Pittsburgh’s defense is good enough to score a few points off the Baltimore offense. I would expect Pittsburgh to win a close game, probably decided by a field goal or a pick-6.

I’d like to pick Arizona in the NFC championship game just to be different and because I remember Kurt Warner from the old St. Louis days. However, there is something about the way Philadelphia is playing that gives me pause. Arizona has been good at stopping the run and then running the ball themselves. If Arizona gets pass happy, Philadelphia will win in a walk as the Eagles defense will beat Warner senseless. But if the Cardinals can just pound the ball and only have a deep pass now and again to keep the Eagles from putting eight men in the box, they might be able to win. Arizona must neutralize Brian Westbrook to have any chance and that will force McNabb to throw a lot, giving the Cardinals chances to jump the routes just as they did with Carolina.

If Pittsburgh meets Philadelphia, we would have an all Pennsylvania Super Bowl and a pretty dirty trench fight as well.

An Arizona-Pittsburgh Super Bowl would be a Steelers reunion since the head coach of the Cardinals was the offensive coordinator for the Steelers for quite a long time.

I’m sure I could come up with other ties in case Baltimore wins the AFC, but given my opinion that I think that Pittsburgh will win, I’ll just wait and do the connection if Baltimore gets to the Super Bowl.

A Quick Guide

Reading or hearing about the rocket attacks that Hamas is making and the Israeli response is a little hard to get a handle on without a firm definition of where everything is. So here is a map of some of the locations that seem to be primary targets of rocket fire.

I've also circled Beit Shemesh although they've gotten significantly less fire than the rest as Hamas' current rockets only have enough range to hit the outer reaches of the town. Most fired there have fallen a bit short. However, rumors are circulating that Iran is trying to smuggle rockets into Gaza that would have the range to hit downtown Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.

Perspective

Point of consideration:

The Current Conflict

While surfing around today, I found two bits that best describe Israel's fight with Hamas.

First the quote: If the Palestinians laid down their weapons, there would be no war. If Israel laid down their weapons, there would be no Israel.

Second, the picture:

Playoffs

Christmas was fun and I thoroughly enjoyed my time off of work with the exception of the ruined kitchen floor. But that is why one has insurance.

Anyway, we can now focus more on the last vestiges of the football season. I have to admit, I was a little surprised that Arizona beat Atlanta. Having watched a couple of Arizona games, I would have thought that Atlanta’s running game would have eventually crushed them. But instead, it was Atlanta that failed to recover and Arizona’s defense finally showed up after taking the last few games off.

I was not surprised that San Diego beat Indianapolis although I was hoping that Indy would win. For whatever reason, Indy simply cannot win in San Diego, especially when the Chargers are on a roll that was needed even to make the playoffs.

I was not surprised in the least that Baltimore whipped up on Miami. They are still trying to remember how to win and going against the nasty Baltimore defense was just too much for the Fish.

I thought Minnesota might put up a slightly better fight, but it took no one by surprise that the Eagles beat the Vikings. They have a good defense and a great running game, but the Minnesota O-line and the quarterback were simply not seasoned enough to contain the Philadelphia blitzing packages and I think everyone knew that.

So on to next weekend’s games. If Roethlesburger had not suffered the concussion in the game against Cleveland, I’d say that the Steelers should shred San Diego. They still might, but a wounded quarterback will make a tasty target for the Charger defense. Still, I would expect the Steelers defense to beat up on Philip Rivers pretty hard and the Steelers running game will wear down San Diego.

The Baltimore-Tennessee game should be very interesting. Tennessee’s defense is good enough to hold Baltimore’s mediocre offense in check while Baltimore’s defense should get after Kerry Collins and contain the Tennessee running game. This game will probably come down to one or two little plays and may be decided by a field goal.

I’m sure New York wanted Arizona very badly rather than division rival Philadelphia. They know their opponent and New York is better than Philadelphia, but division rivals have a habit of pulling the unlikely upsets. I would expect New York to win, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Philadelphia prevailed.

Carolina-Arizona will probably be a laugher. Arizona’s defense was pretty good against Atlanta, but I can’t see them being able to contain Steve Smith. Once Carolina jumps out to a lead, Arizona will likely abandon the running game and it will be tee-off time against Kurt Warner. Carolina should have very little to worry about in terms of getting to the NFC title game.

Dumbledore's Incompetence

I know it’s not exactly Christmas-y but this is what I had on my mind.

Mrs. X, while waiting for any of her three books on the library wait list, has been rereading some of the Harry Potter books. That brought back memories of the post I wrote regarding the trap that Dumbledore set for Voldemort in the first book and also got me thinking about something that doesn’t really make sense with regard to the second book.

One could forgive Dumbledore for not knowing much about the Chamber of Secrets before Tom Riddle opened it, but after Myrtle was killed, Dumbledore should have made it one of his top priorities to deal with the Chamber. He obviously did some of that in keeping a close eye on Riddle for the remainder of his term at Hogwarts, preventing Riddle from summoning the basilisk. Perhaps Professor Dippet restricted Dumbledore from searching out of fear that the monster could not be killed. However, this restriction would have been removed when Dumbledore became headmaster.

The thing that doesn’t make sense to me is how Dumbledore could have been so unprepared for the re-opening of the Chamber of Secrets. Although he didn’t have Riddle’s memory that had been placed in the diary, Dumbledore clearly had enough information to determine both the nature of the monster and the likely location of the Chamber of Secrets.

It is suggested in the book that there had been one or two other attacks before Myrtle was killed. If any of these attacks looked like the attacks that took place 50 years later, one would have noticed water around and spiders fleeing mad dash from the scene. What’s more, it is also likely that Riddle would have made sure that any roosters on campus would have been killed, just as before.

If that wasn’t enough for Dumbledore to figure it out (and it was for Hermione), he had the advantage of two witnesses. Myrtle left Hogwarts to continue her haunting of Olive Hornby until she was restricted by the Ministry. One might assume that she was checked out before being permitted to take residence back up at Hogwarts and that Dumbledore might have even remembered that she was the girl who had been killed by the monster. Myrtle was more than happy to describe the way she died to Harry and one could imagine that if the Headmaster came in and asked her for her story, she would have told him eagerly. Dumbledore could also have asked Hagrid what Aragog remembered of the incident since he would have been sensitive to it. All three of these factors would have given Dumbledore the information he needed on both the nature of the monster and the likely location of the entrance, since Myrtle’s story mentioned Tom summoning the snake.

Even if Dumbledore could not open the Chamber of Secrets and destroy the monster due to his lack of knowledge of Parsletongue (and this didn’t stop Ron from managing to open the Chamber in Deathly Hallows), Dumbledore could still have taken care of things in a very quick and simple manner. Upon the discovery of Mrs. Norris, Dumbledore correctly surmised that the Chamber of Secrets had been reopened. Now, if he had done what a responsible headmaster should have done, he could have set up a simple detector within the bathroom. If that detector was tripped by either use of a certain type of magic or the use of Parsletongue, an alarm could have been sounded throughout the castle. What’s more, that alarm could have been done in the form of a rooster crowing. This would have killed the basilisk before it even had time to fully emerge from the Chamber.

Granted this likely would have allowed Ginny to escape and remain possessed by Voldemort, but Dumbledore had no way of knowing that was how the Chamber was being opened and it would have immediately dealt with the danger being posed to the student population. Of course, Dumbledore could have added to his alarm system to ensure that the perpetrator was caught. Upon triggering the alarm, the door could have been sealed to allow no access except for that of the headmaster. As apparition is impossible within Hogwarts, the culprit would have to either stay within the bathroom or run into the chamber where they would presumably be cornered. Dumbledore could also have told Myrtle of this plan and asked her to come and look around the bathroom when the alarm had been triggered and see if she could describe the culprit in case they did manage to find a way to escape the trap.

This would have made for a rather boring story, but it would have been much more in line with what a truly competent strategist and wise headmaster would have done. The basilisk would have been killed by the alarm and Ginny caught when she tried to release it while Harry was in the hospital wing in the attack that petrified Colin Creevey. After a short examination, I’m sure Ginny would have recovered and given the diary to Dumbledore, who would have examined it. Likely, Dumbledore would not have destroyed it until he was sure what it was but it would have at least posed no further danger to anyone. Harry then could have finished his second year like every other student in peace.

As an aside, I’m sure Voldemort’s curse would have found someway for Lockhart to be removed by the end of the term. Perhaps a revolt among the staff if he were not sacked?

Why Things Are They Way They Are

An important lesson in how history influences everything:

The US standard railroad gauge (distance between the rails) is 4 feet, 8.5 inches. That's an exceedingly odd number. Why was that gauge used?

Because that's the way they built them in England, and English expatriates built the US railroads. Why did the English build them like that?

Because the first rail lines were built by the same people who built the pre-railroad tramways, and that's the gauge they used. Why did these people use that gauge then?

Because the people who built the tramways used the same jigs and tools that they used for building wagons, which used that wheel spacing. Why did the wagons have that particular odd wheel spacing?

Well, if they tried to use any other spacing, the wagon wheels would break on some of the old, long distance roads in England, because that's the spacing of the wheel ruts. So who built those old rutted roads?

Imperial Rome built the first long distance roads in Europe (and England ) for their legions. The roads have been used ever since. And the ruts in the roads? Roman war chariots formed the initial ruts, which everyone else had to match for fear of destroying their wagon wheels. Since the chariots were made for Imperial Rome, they were all alike in the matter of wheel spacing.

Therefore the United States standard railroad gauge of 4 feet, 8.5 inches is derived from the original specifications for an Imperial Roman war chariot. Bureaucracies live forever. So the next time you are handed a Specification, Procedure or Process and wonder "What horse's ass came up with it?" you may be exactly right. Imperial Roman army chariots were made just wide enough to accommodate the rear ends of two war horses. (Two horses' asses.)

Now, the twist to the story:

When you see a Space Shuttle sitting on its launch pad, there are two big booster rockets attached to the sides of the main fuel tank. These are solid rocket boosters, or SRB's. The SRB's are made by Thiokol at their factory in Utah. The engineers who designed the SRB's would have preferred to make them a bit fatter, but the SRB's had to be shipped by train from the factory to the launch site. The railroad line from the factory happens to run through a tunnel in the mountains, and the SRB's had to fit through that tunnel. The tunnel is slightly wider than the railroad track, and the railroad track, as you now know, is about as wide as two horses' behinds.

So, a major Space Shuttle design feature of what is arguably the world's most advanced transportation system was determined over two thousand years ago by the width of a horse's ass.

Thus we can safely say that ancient horse's asses control almost everything... and CURRENT horses asses control everything else.

Week 17

In contrast to previous years, Week 17 still matters to a large degree in regard to some fairly prominent seeds.

Things are little more set on the AFC side. Tennessee has clinched the #1 seed and Pittsburgh has clinched the #2 seed. Indianapolis is definitely in and I think that because of the way the tiebreakers work, they are assured of the #5 seed win or lose this Sunday. That leaves the #3, #4, and #6 seeds. The #3 seed will go to the AFC East winner and the #4 seed will go to the AFC West winner but who those will be is the question.

The winner of the San Diego-Denver game will win the division and the #4 seed. The loser stays home during the playoffs. Currently Miami and New England are tied for the AFC East lead with Miami holding the tiebreaker. The NY Jets are a game out. New England plays Buffalo this weekend and I think it is likely that they will win that game. The Jets and Miami play each other. If Miami wins, they will win the division through tiebreaker. If the Jets win, they would need New England to lose to Buffalo to win the division. If the Jets win and New England wins, New England wins the division outright.

The #6 seed is currently held by Baltimore who close out the season at home against Jacksonville. As long as they win, they will get in as the #6 seed. If they lose, they could lose out to New England if Miami wins the division. I think Baltimore would win a tiebreaker against the Jets. That would mean that the most likely scenario has Indianapolis travelling West to Denver or San Diego while Baltimore would go to either Miami or New England.

On the NFC side, things are still a little more in play. The Giants have clinched the #1 seed and the #2 seed will go to the NFC South winner (likely Carolina). However, there is a slim chance that if Carolina loses to New Orleans and Atlanta wins against St. Louis, Atlanta might win the division. I’m not 100% sure that Carolina has locked up all the tiebreakers. But I would expect Carolina to beat New Orleans and take the #2 seed.

Minnesota and Chicago are dueling it out for the NFC North crown and the likely #3 seed. Arizona has already won the NFC West and currently sits in the #4 spot. If Minnesota wins against the Giants on Sunday, they win the division and the #3 seed. If they lose and Chicago beats Houston, Chicago wins the North, although I think Arizona could pull up to a #3 seed with a win against Seattle if Chicago takes the North.

Atlanta is in the playoffs and still has the outside chance at the division crown, but they are likely going to be the #5 seed and likely looking at a trip to Arizona. Dallas is in the driver’s seat for the #6 seed. If they beat Philadelphia, they are in. If they lose, the door opens for Tampa Bay who will be playing Oakland. If both Dallas and Tampa Bay lose, the spot goes to Chicago, assuming Chicago beats Houston and Minnesota wins the division. If Dallas, Tampa Bay and Chicago all lose, the spot goes to Philadelphia. Theoretically, if Atlanta lost and Dallas won, Dallas might move up to the #5 spot, but I’m not sure about the various tiebreakers. Plus, I don’t think it’s likely that Atlanta would lose to St. Louis.

I don’t have a lot of faith in Dallas, so I’m inclined to think that Tampa Bay will win the #6 seed and travel to Minnesota (the Giants will not be playing their starters so Minnesota should win that last game), while Atlanta travels to Arizona to take on the Cardinals.

Christmas Survey

I guess it's my turn now:

1. Wrapping paper or gift bags?
Wrapping paper. It looks bad but I actually make gift bags look worse.
2. Real tree or artificial?
Fake. I like real trees but it's much easier and cheaper this way.
3. When do you put up the tree?
Depends on when Thanksgiving falls. Usually that first weekend in December though.
4. When do you take the tree down?
New Year's day or the day after.
5. Do you like eggnog?
No.
6. Favorite gift received as a child?
I can't think of one specifically. The Fischer-Price Farm was good. I enjoyed my TV production truck (which was not a new blanket for Madame S ;) ). My tape player that I ran into the ground. My first Calvin and Hobbes book.
7. Hardest person to buy for?
My parents and my mom specifically.
8. Do you have a nativity scene?
Yes, from Mrs. X's mom. We need to get a cleared elevated space to put it out though.
9. Mail or email Christmas cards?
Mrs. X mails the Christmas cards.
10. Worst Christmas gift you ever received?
I really can't think of anything that gave me a "what the heck is this?" feeling. I probably had that when I got clothes as a kid but at least they all fit well and looked pretty good on me (even if I didn't appreciate it at the time).
11. Favorite Christmas Movie?
Alistair Sim's 1951 version of A Christmas Carol.
12. When do you start shopping for Christmas?
Dec. 26.
13. Have you ever recycled a Christmas present?
Not that I recall.
14. Favorite thing to eat at Christmas?
Mrs. X's peanut butter bars. Although I'm also fond of chocolate peanut clusters, Oreo truffles (sometimes called reindeer poop), and buckeyes.
15. Lights on the tree?
Yes, multi-colored.
16. Favorite Christmas song?
Silent Night (best done in German) from the traditionals. Christmas, 1913 is a personal favorite of mine.
17. Travel at Christmas or stay home?
Ideally, stay home.
18. Can you name all of Santa's reindeer?
Dasher, Dancer, Prancer, Vixen, Comet, Cupid, Donder (not Donner), Blitzen, and Rudolph.
19. Angel on the tree top or a star?
Neither at the moment. We had an angel growing up.
20. Open the presents Christmas Eve or Christmas day?
Christmas Day for the kids and just between us. Eve for larger family gatherings.
21. Most annoying thing about this time of the year?
The traffic when you go to any store or restaurant. Being bludgeoned by materialism.
22. Favorite ornament theme or color?
People who worry about themes for their ornaments should be slapped. Ornaments should be personal and have an individual story.
23. Favorite for Christmas dinner?
Anytime one gets to have turkey is good. But I'm also a fan of ham or large beef presentations.
24. What do you want for Christmas this year?
10 fingers, 10 toes, a strong heart, and good health for Baby X2.0
25. What is your favorite Christmas memory?
I have a few. Christmas 1982 was the first Christmas I really remembered and it seemed like a large one with lots of presents (plus everyone was there). Talking to Madame S through the vents when Mom and Dad brought in presents they had bought and we were banished to our rooms so we wouldn't see what they were. Always decorating the tree, although I really remember and like the first time I did it myself in Connecticut while listening watching the Florida recount fiasco. Toddler X's first Christmas and how she gaped in amazement at all the new toys for her.

Impossible Peace

If you ever wanted proof of the fact that the Arabs who call themselves Palestinians will never accept any deal that will produce anything less than full control over all Israel, I give you this picture:

Notice the logo of the group in the upper right corner. That is the land from the Jordan to the Mediterranean. These people simply will not stop until they drive the Jews into the sea. Unfortunately, this means that Israel's only option is to drive the Arabs out of Judea and Samaria and probably further just to create a buffer zone for themselves. In other words, peace will not be achieved until one side is dead. Such is a sorry state of affairs.

Something Interesting

I saw a passing comment regarding this. Look at the two pictures below:

Look similiar?

The first is the set that Mr. Obama gave his Democratic Nominee acceptance speech at in Denver. The second is the Altar of Zeus that was originally constructed in Pergamos and moved to a museum in Berlin in the late 19th century. One certainly can't fault Mr. Obama for his sense of style.

However, it would probably be a good idea if someone educated Mr. Obama about the history of this Altar as a certain famous 20th century German leader also gave speeches on a platform modeled after this Altar (hint: the capital of North Dakota is not named after him).

Of course, there is also the casual mention of this Altar in Rev. 2:12-13. So, I would suggest to Mr. Obama that he give his speeches from slightly less historically colorful platforms. He has enough problems without inviting unflattering comparisons to certain historical figures.

Christmas with the Muppets

For some reason, the Muppets John Denver Christmas special has never been released on any video format. So here are some clips that someone managed to record off TV back in the day.













As a bonus, here's one from Emmett Otter that is also on the Muppet's album. Robin and Emmett Otter have the same voice.

The Chicago Way

I don't really have anything specific to say regarding the scandal erupting within the Illinois governor's office. It is what it is and quite frankly it just sounds like politics as normal to me, just with a slightly illegal twist.

Some people scattered around the Internet seem to think that this will bring Mr. Obama down in a Nixonian fashion. This is a complete load. Mr. Obama and his staff did nothing wrong. In fact the timeline that has been put forth so far suggests that the Obama staff started distancing themselves away from Mr. Blagojevich as early as a week after the election when things started developing. I've even heard a suggestion that a member of the Obama staff may have tipped off the Justice Department of what was going on to allow them to expand the focus of their probe.

The only thing that is likely to affect Mr. Obama in the near future his past involvement in Chicago politics. Mr. Rezko is singing like a canary and some of his testimony will likely be used both against Mr. Blagojevich and to attack Mr. Obama. I doubt there will ever be anything to be more than a significant distraction to Mr. Obama, but this does have the air of the Paula Jones lawsuit that Mr. Clinton was swatting at when he took office. It never destroyed him, but it ultimately put a handicap on his presidency. We shall see if this ends up hitting Mr. Obama in the same way.

Bowl Anticipation

A mildly surprising 10 for 10 for me in the BCS games based off last week's speculation. Granted, I never took a stand on who would win between Virginia Tech and Boston College and I did have to hold out the caveat that the Sugar Bowl could have taken Virginia Tech, but overall, I think I did quite well. Now, the question is how things will play out and what the quality of the games will be.

Ironically, I suspect that the people who run the BCS are quietly becoming fans of the Big 10. If Texas beats Ohio St. (something I think will happen), Texas will complain no matter what happens in the title game. If Oklahoma wins, Texas will claim that they are worth of co-champion status because they beat Oklahoma on a neutral field. If Florida wins, Texas will use that as proof that they should have been put into the championship game as they had already proven that Oklahoma was an inferior opponent.

The BCS folks would also probably prefer it if Penn St. knocked off USC (also unlikely), just to keep USC from complaining too loudly that they deserved a shot at the title. This is less of a concern since the Pac-10 was just a bad conference this year and since USC’s loss was in-conference, there is little sympathy for them. USC garners about as much support as Penn St. did after their loss to Iowa and that isn’t much.

I think the match-up for the national title is the correct one within the confines of the system we have. Would it be nice to have a playoff so that Texas and USC could fight it out on the field? Sure. But that’s not going to happen this season. Oklahoma was ruled the winner of the Big 12 South by the rules established by the Big 12. They did what they had to do and have been rewarded for it. Starting about the mid-way point of the season, people began to feel that the national title game should be the Big 12 South champ (and presumably the Big 12 champ) vs. the SEC champ. We have that and I think it will be a good game with only a little bit of bitching from the peanut gallery.

Fiesta Bowl: Texas will probably beat down Ohio St. Ohio St. has improved, but I think Texas is a much better team and will pull away throughout the game. Ohio St.’s only real chance is if Texas is so distracted by their anger of not playing for the national title that Ohio St. get’s the jump on them.

Rose Bowl: I like Penn St. but I just don’t see any way that they can beat USC. Penn St. only barely beat Ohio St. and USC beat Ohio St. rather soundly. Plus, USC will have a significant home field advantage playing in the Rose Bowl. I hope Penn St. keeps it close, but I think USC’s athleticism will help them pull away as the game goes on.

Sugar Bowl: Small teams have pulled big upsets in the past. I don’t think this will be one of them. Utah is going to face an Alabama team irritated by “what-ifs” and pushed on by a huge crowd advantage. I suspect that Alabama will run constantly and just bludgeon Utah into submission mid-way through the 3rd quarter.

Orange Bowl: Cincinnati is probably going to be suffering a case of “just happy to be here” when they match up against Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech’s coaching staff is experienced and will probably use special teams to pull a few surprises on Cincinnati. Virginia Tech has lost focus at times this season and that gives Cincinnati a fighting chance, but I’m inclined to think that veteran leadership will carry this game.

Title game: I’m torn here. Florida has de-facto home field advantage with the game being played in the Orange Bowl and I think the SEC schedule has toughened them up a bit more. However, I also think that Oklahoma is built like Alabama but with a better passing game and Florida did have some fits with that team. I’m leaning toward Florida at the moment but I would not be at all surprised to see Oklahoma win this game. Either way, I think the game will be closer (and better) than the last two national title games.

Of the lesser bowl games, the ones that might be good games to watch are the Hawaii Bowl (Hawaii vs. Notre Dame), the Alamo Bowl (Missouri vs. Northwestern), the Insight Bowl (Kansas vs. Minnesota), and the International Bowl (Buffalo vs. Connecticut). People might prefer other bowls, but these intrigue me.

Football Thoughts

There has been a lot of bitching about Oklahoma getting to go to the Big 12 Championship and possibly the National Championship over Texas since Texas beat Oklahoma on a neutral field. That may be so, but it would behoove us to remember that this was not a straight tie. It was a three-way tie. Texas lost at Texas Tech and Oklahoma beat the snot out of Texas Tech at home. If Oklahoma had lost to Oklahoma St., Texas Tech would have won the Big 12 South based on the head-to-head tiebreaker, despite the fact that just about everyone thinks that Texas is the better team. So all the Texas folks who are complaining about a lesser team than them getting vaulted ahead of them should shut up. If Texas wanted to be in control of the situation, they should have beaten Texas Tech and not whined like a bunch of crybabies.

(Yes I am channeling my inner Wilbon today).

Anyway, we also have things to look forward to in the NFL. There are four weeks left but I think that barring major injury, the NY Giants (11-1) are the team to beat in the NFC and quite possibly the NFL. There is very little chance that they will not get the #1 seed come playoff time. The #2 will go to the winner of the NFC South. At the moment, Tampa Bay has the tiebreaker against Carolina (both 9-3), but the two play each other again this weekend. The loser of this match is likely to fall to the #5 seed but will still make the playoffs.

Arizona (7-5) will probably wrap up the NFC West this weekend. They are in line for the #3 seed but could fall to the #4 if they aren't careful. Currently the #4 would go to the Minnesota Vikings (7-5), who are starting to take command of the NFC North. The Bears and Packers aren't out of it though and if the Vikings lose two major cogs in their front line due to this diet pill scandel, either team could overtake Minnesota for the division lead.

As I mentioned earlier, I think the #5 seed goes to the NFC South second place team (Carolina currently), which leaves the #6 seed. Dallas (8-4) is in this position now, but they have the Atlanta Falcons (8-4) breathing down their necks and the Washington Redskins (7-5) are also only a game out. Dallas' schedule for the next four weeks is @ Pittsburgh, NY Giants, Baltimore, and @ Philadelphia. It is not inconceivable that Dallas loses all four of those games to finish 8-8. Meanwhile the Falcons have @ New Orleans, Tampa Bay, @ Minnesota, and St. Louis. I think the Falcons will win at least two of those games to finish no worse than 10-6. Washington has @ Baltimore, @ Cincinnati, Philadelphia, and @ San Francisco. I think two are guaranteed wins and the other two are winnable at least. My inclination is that Atlanta wins the #6 seed, but I wouldn't be shocked by Washington. I think Dallas has the hardest road, probably needing to win three of those four games to make the playoffs.

Over in the AFC, Tennessee (11-1) has the #1 seed with Pittsburgh (9-3) nipping at their heels. I think Tennessee holds on to retain the #1 seed and the Steelers will have to settle for #2. Interestingly enough, in Week 16, Tennessee plays at Pittsburgh. It could be a preview of what the AFC Championship game looks like, although the location might be reversed. The #3 seed will go to the AFC East winner. The NY Jets (8-4) are in the driver's seat, but New England and Miami are lurking (both 7-5). I think New England's remaining schedule is soft enough that they might go 4-0 and finish 11-5. That would put pressure on the Jets to do the same. The first three games should be easy enough but that match-up against Miami in Week 17 could very well have some serious playoff implications. Denver is sitting pretty in the AFC West and should finish with the #4 seed.

It is not inconceivable that Miami, New England, and the Jets could all finish 11-5. That would create a fun little scrum with Indianapolis (8-4) and Baltimore (8-4) also vying for the #5 and #6 seeds. Indianapolis looks as though it has a real shot to go 12-4, depending on whether or not they can take Jacksonville and Tennessee is playing their A-team in the last two weeks of the season. Baltimore probably has the hardest road as they take on Washington, Pittsburgh, @ Dallas, and Jacksonville. But this still gives them a reasonable opportunity to go 12-4 or 11-5. If Baltimore did finish 11-5 and Miami beats the Jets in Week 17, Indianapolis would probably secure the #5 seed and we would be left looking at a lot of tiebreakers to see who would get the #6 between Baltimore, Miami, and the Jets. If the Jets were to win that last game, they win the division and the tiebreaker is between Baltimore and New England.

No matter what happens, I'm currently leaning towards Pittsburgh vs. Tennessee in the AFC Championship and NY Giants vs. someone from the NFC South (can't quite decide yet).