Here’s a fun little game. Take the first line of the first post for every month last year and see if you can spot a trend in what you talk about on your blog. Mrs. X did this and I thought we’d see what I talk about:
January:
“Yesterday, at church, the pastor gave a little sermon about reading and studying the Bible.”
(A post about some of my theological research).
February:
“To quote Bart Simpson, ‘I didn’t think it was possible, but this both sucks and blows.’”
(Steelers win Superbowl)
March:
“So the Oscars were on last night.”
(I do a little entertainment now and then).
April:
“The West Wing has been referred to as ‘if Hollywood had run the Clinton White House.’”
(Entertainment review mixed with some politics).
May:
“Well, its election time here in Ohio.”
(More politics).
June:
“I recently read a post on Real Clear Politics that accused RFK Jr. of reviving the Democratic shriek of how Ohio was stolen in 2004 to discredit Ken Blackwell, who is now running for Governor.”
(Even more politics).
July:
“Two down, two to go.”
(Israeli-Lebanon/Gaza War post)
August:
“Several months ago, if you had said that Joe Lieberman was going to lose the Democratic nomination for Senate, most people would have laughed at you.”
(I’m noticing a trend here).
September:
“I apologize for being away for over a month.”
(The meat of this post was about Pope Benedict’s comments about Muslims)
October:
“Well, things went to hell for the Bengals this weekend.”
(Finally getting into football posts again).
November:
“Well, it becomes official sometime today that the Democrats have officially won both the House and Senate.”
(Politics in November. Shocking!)
December:
“So a few things happened on the way to the Ohio St.-USC game.”
(More football).
So I think we can all see that I’m something of a political junkie (at least during election years), but I enjoy mixing a little sports and eschatology in as well. If you like those, please stick around. If not, I’m sure there are more nice blogs out there for you.
Monday, January 08, 2007
NFL Playoffs: Round Two
Happy New Year ( a week late).
So the first week of the playoffs is over. I had been intending to post my picks before the game, but I never got around to it. As it stands, all the higher seeds won. I had thought about picking the Cowboys over the Seahawks as the most likely upset, but even there I couldn’t quite pull the trigger. The game ended up being closer than I thought it would, but it’s the final that matters.
So now we go onto the next round, starting with the NFC. Seattle at Chicago should be the most lopsided of the four games. Seattle came in and got thumped back in October. Granted, they will have Shawn Alexander back and the Chicago defense is more beaten up, but the Seattle defense is in tatters. The Bears should have little problem pounding the ball, mixing in a few short passes (and maybe one bomb here and there) and completely control the game. If Rex Grossman commits 5 turnovers, I could see Seattle winning this game, but there is no need for high-risk offense and the Bears should be able to just grind Seattle down.
Philadelphia at New Orleans is a much harder game to pick. Philly’s offense didn’t look that great against the Giants, but they are riding a hot streak right now. New Orleans has a very good offense, but their defense gives up the big play a lot. I think if Drew Breese is careful with the ball and doesn’t throw picks in the end zone, New Orleans will win in an squeeker. But any major mistakes by the Saints will result in an Eagles win.
On the AFC side, Indianapolis will face the Ravens in a match-up of the two Baltimore teams. The game matches up Indy’s high-powered offense vs. Baltimore’s stingy defense. Defense usually wins, but I’m not sold that the Ravens are as good as everyone thinks they are. But, in Baltimore, the Colt’s defense will not be able to run like at home and against Jamal Lewis, the Colt’s will get very tired, very quickly. I lean towards Baltimore in this game, because of ball-control offense (as the Chiefs were supposed to do) rather than any great performance of the Baltimore defense.
Finally we have New England at San Diego. New England was not overly impressive yesterday. If the Jets had managed to punch it into the end zone rather than settle for field goals, New England would have had a much harder time of it and might have lost the game. Still, they are resourceful, and it’s hard to go with Marty Schottenheimer (who has lost a lot of playoff games) vs. Bill Belichek. New England’s defense will pressure Philip Rivers, but I think LaDamien Tomlinson will play enough of an equalizer to get San Diego to the next round.
So the first week of the playoffs is over. I had been intending to post my picks before the game, but I never got around to it. As it stands, all the higher seeds won. I had thought about picking the Cowboys over the Seahawks as the most likely upset, but even there I couldn’t quite pull the trigger. The game ended up being closer than I thought it would, but it’s the final that matters.
So now we go onto the next round, starting with the NFC. Seattle at Chicago should be the most lopsided of the four games. Seattle came in and got thumped back in October. Granted, they will have Shawn Alexander back and the Chicago defense is more beaten up, but the Seattle defense is in tatters. The Bears should have little problem pounding the ball, mixing in a few short passes (and maybe one bomb here and there) and completely control the game. If Rex Grossman commits 5 turnovers, I could see Seattle winning this game, but there is no need for high-risk offense and the Bears should be able to just grind Seattle down.
Philadelphia at New Orleans is a much harder game to pick. Philly’s offense didn’t look that great against the Giants, but they are riding a hot streak right now. New Orleans has a very good offense, but their defense gives up the big play a lot. I think if Drew Breese is careful with the ball and doesn’t throw picks in the end zone, New Orleans will win in an squeeker. But any major mistakes by the Saints will result in an Eagles win.
On the AFC side, Indianapolis will face the Ravens in a match-up of the two Baltimore teams. The game matches up Indy’s high-powered offense vs. Baltimore’s stingy defense. Defense usually wins, but I’m not sold that the Ravens are as good as everyone thinks they are. But, in Baltimore, the Colt’s defense will not be able to run like at home and against Jamal Lewis, the Colt’s will get very tired, very quickly. I lean towards Baltimore in this game, because of ball-control offense (as the Chiefs were supposed to do) rather than any great performance of the Baltimore defense.
Finally we have New England at San Diego. New England was not overly impressive yesterday. If the Jets had managed to punch it into the end zone rather than settle for field goals, New England would have had a much harder time of it and might have lost the game. Still, they are resourceful, and it’s hard to go with Marty Schottenheimer (who has lost a lot of playoff games) vs. Bill Belichek. New England’s defense will pressure Philip Rivers, but I think LaDamien Tomlinson will play enough of an equalizer to get San Diego to the next round.
Tuesday, December 19, 2006
Defensive Morons
Well the Bengals lost last night, mostly because the defensive coordinator is a moron. After watching 14 games this season, anyone could tell you that the Bengals front 4 is not good enough to get a consistent pass rush. But at no time did I see the Bengals try to blitz with any regularity. What’s more, the linebackers and corners dropped and covered deep, routinely leaving the 5-8 yard dump pass over the middle open. So Peyton Manning and co. dinked and dunked the Bengals to death. Meanwhile, Carson Palmer never got into a rhythm due to the offense’s strong desire to push the Colts run defense. They did that well, but Palmer never got comfortable and the O-line could not contain the Colts pass rush.
All told, this vaults three games into the spotlight to see who makes the AFC playoffs: New England at Jacksonville, Cincinnati at Denver, and NY Jets at Miami on Monday night. Denver plays San Francisco in its final game so if the Broncos beat the Bengals, Denver is almost sure to finish 10-6 and get in. Likewise for the Jets: they play Oakland at home in the last game so if they beat the Dolphins, they will finish at 10-6 and make the playoffs. Jacksonville finishes the season at Kansas City and they play terrible on the road so if the Jaguars lose to New England, they are almost sure to finish the season at 8-8. Even if they win against New England, losing to Kansas City would mean a 9-7 finish with a 6-6 record against the AFC, probably not good enough to get in.
Then you have the morass with the Bengals. If the Bengals beat Denver, they are almost guaranteed to get in, even if they lose to the Steelers the following week (assuming Jacksonville loses one of their last two games) as they will have the head to head against Denver and a better AFC record than Jacksonville. They would only be threatened if Buffalo wins their last two games to also finish 9-7 with a 7-5 record against the AFC. The next tiebreaker is record against common opponents with a minimum of 4, followed by strength of victory and strength of schedule. But, Buffalo closes out the season against Baltimore and the Ravens might still be playing hard to try and get the #1 or #2 seed. If the Bengals lose to Denver, they will need the Jets to lose to Miami or Oakland to have a shot as well as have Jacksonville go down and win against Pittsburgh.
So, I think the Jets will get in and the winner of Cincinnati – Denver will get in. How the seeds will shake out is still up in the air and it looks like the three top seeds will have to keep fighting it out to see who gets the #1 and #2 seeds.
All told, this vaults three games into the spotlight to see who makes the AFC playoffs: New England at Jacksonville, Cincinnati at Denver, and NY Jets at Miami on Monday night. Denver plays San Francisco in its final game so if the Broncos beat the Bengals, Denver is almost sure to finish 10-6 and get in. Likewise for the Jets: they play Oakland at home in the last game so if they beat the Dolphins, they will finish at 10-6 and make the playoffs. Jacksonville finishes the season at Kansas City and they play terrible on the road so if the Jaguars lose to New England, they are almost sure to finish the season at 8-8. Even if they win against New England, losing to Kansas City would mean a 9-7 finish with a 6-6 record against the AFC, probably not good enough to get in.
Then you have the morass with the Bengals. If the Bengals beat Denver, they are almost guaranteed to get in, even if they lose to the Steelers the following week (assuming Jacksonville loses one of their last two games) as they will have the head to head against Denver and a better AFC record than Jacksonville. They would only be threatened if Buffalo wins their last two games to also finish 9-7 with a 7-5 record against the AFC. The next tiebreaker is record against common opponents with a minimum of 4, followed by strength of victory and strength of schedule. But, Buffalo closes out the season against Baltimore and the Ravens might still be playing hard to try and get the #1 or #2 seed. If the Bengals lose to Denver, they will need the Jets to lose to Miami or Oakland to have a shot as well as have Jacksonville go down and win against Pittsburgh.
So, I think the Jets will get in and the winner of Cincinnati – Denver will get in. How the seeds will shake out is still up in the air and it looks like the three top seeds will have to keep fighting it out to see who gets the #1 and #2 seeds.
Monday, December 18, 2006
Playoff Mists
Continuing with our series of football updates, San Diego is moving more and more into the team to beat. If the Bengals manage to beat Indianapolis tonight (and that’s a big if), San Diego will secure a first-round bye. Unfortunately for them, they have to keep playing their A-list players even if Indy loses because Baltimore keeps winning and Baltimore would have the tiebreaker if the two clubs finish the season tied. So, in order to secure the #1 seed, San Diego has to finish the season one game up on Baltimore and given Baltimore’s schedule, that could mean that San Diego must finish at 14-2 to Baltimore’s 13-3. Fortunately, San Diego finishes up against some pud opponents (Seattle and Arizona). As such, it seems very likely that San Diego and Baltimore will be your #1 and #2 seeds.
Indianapolis won the AFC South by virtue of Jacksonville’s loss to Tennessee. New England vented its anger against Houston and will probably try to complete the righting of the ship against Jacksonville next weekend. However, Jacksonville plays very well at home so don’t expect a cakewalk for the Pats. Plus, New England finishes the season against the surging Titans. The Patriots will probably win at least one of these games and secure the AFC East, but they are going to have a tough go of it. With Indy freefalling at the moment due to injuries, these two teams are virtual locks for the #3 and #4 seeds. Given that Indy has the tiebreaker and a game against Houston next week, I think Indy will hold the #3 seed, regardless of what happens tonight.
That leaves the wild cards. The Bengals can take a commanding position if they beat Indianapolis tonight. The Bengals win percentage against the AFC is better than all other wild card contenders at the moment. If they win, they will also be a full game up on Denver, Jacksonville, and the Jets. Denver has the next best record and currently holds the #6 seed. Jacksonville has the tiebreaker against the Jets, but the Jets’ schedule allows them hope of getting in if Cincinnati, Denver or Jacksonville stumbles. If Cincinnati loses tonight, they will fall to the #6 spot, behind Denver, with the match-up at Mile-High determining who probably gets in. Theoretically, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and Tennessee are still in the hunt at 7-7 but the odds are already long that a 9-7 team will get in. Plus, Pittsburgh will probably go down to the Ravens next week and Tennessee and Buffalo face each other. So, there will probably be only one 8-7 team among this bunch after next week anyway.
On the NFC side, everyone sucks. Chicago won the #1 seed, but needed overtime against a Tampa Bay team that hadn’t scored a TD since late November. New Orleans is still the #2 seed by virtue of their win over Dallas, but the Saints looked bad against the Deadskins. But, Dallas must defeat a resurgent Philadelphia team next week while New Orleans faces off against the problematic Giants.
Meanwhile, Seattle could lose their next two games and if San Francisco wins their last two, the 49ers will win the West and the #4 seed. I think that’s unlikely as Seattle faces Tampa Bay in Week 17 while San Francisco plays Denver, but it’s a possibility.
Philadelphia has put itself in a good position to lock up the #5 seed, but if they beat Dallas next week and Atlanta after that, Philly would win the NFC East. Either way, Philadelphia is a strong bet to make the playoffs after being left for dead. Atlanta meanwhile is in a world of hurt. They can defeat the Panthers next week to get themselves back to 8-7, but the team’s confidence is shaken after Jim Mora’s comments about possibly leaving if the University of Washington job came open and defeat against the Eagles in week 17 looms large. If the Falcons don’t make the playoffs, Mora will probably be fired. The Giants are also still in the mix as they currently hold the #6 seed. Their schedule lends itself towards an 8-8 finish and since they hold the tiebreaker over Atlanta, they get in.
Green Bay, Minnesota, St. Louis, and San Francisco could also all win out to challenge the Giants and Falcons for the last playoff spot, but schedule and tiebreakers favor the Giants. Minnesota has the best chance as they play Green Bay and St. Louis in the last two weeks and if they win those, they would be 8-8 with an 8-4 record against the NFC, better than any other potential 8-8 team. But Minnesota has been sketchy and after squandering their chance against the Jets, the Vikings will need to be perfect down the stretch.
So, the current playoff match-ups are as follows:
AFC
#1 San Diego – bye
#2 Baltimore – bye
#6 Denver at #3 Indianapolis
#5 Cincinnati at #4 New England
NFC
#1 Chicago – bye
#2 New Orleans – bye
#6 NY Giants at #3 Dallas
#5 Philadelphia at #4 Seattle
Philadelphia would like nothing better for this to be the case. Seattle is looking very mortal and if they win there, they would travel to Chicago. The Bears don’t look very good either, giving the Eagles a good chance of getting back the NFC title game with a back-up quarterback. Of course, if they win the East, they could fight their way all the way to the #2 seed if New Orleans doesn’t recover. Either way, the Eagles could find themselves in their fifth NFC title game in six years.
Indianapolis won the AFC South by virtue of Jacksonville’s loss to Tennessee. New England vented its anger against Houston and will probably try to complete the righting of the ship against Jacksonville next weekend. However, Jacksonville plays very well at home so don’t expect a cakewalk for the Pats. Plus, New England finishes the season against the surging Titans. The Patriots will probably win at least one of these games and secure the AFC East, but they are going to have a tough go of it. With Indy freefalling at the moment due to injuries, these two teams are virtual locks for the #3 and #4 seeds. Given that Indy has the tiebreaker and a game against Houston next week, I think Indy will hold the #3 seed, regardless of what happens tonight.
That leaves the wild cards. The Bengals can take a commanding position if they beat Indianapolis tonight. The Bengals win percentage against the AFC is better than all other wild card contenders at the moment. If they win, they will also be a full game up on Denver, Jacksonville, and the Jets. Denver has the next best record and currently holds the #6 seed. Jacksonville has the tiebreaker against the Jets, but the Jets’ schedule allows them hope of getting in if Cincinnati, Denver or Jacksonville stumbles. If Cincinnati loses tonight, they will fall to the #6 spot, behind Denver, with the match-up at Mile-High determining who probably gets in. Theoretically, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and Tennessee are still in the hunt at 7-7 but the odds are already long that a 9-7 team will get in. Plus, Pittsburgh will probably go down to the Ravens next week and Tennessee and Buffalo face each other. So, there will probably be only one 8-7 team among this bunch after next week anyway.
On the NFC side, everyone sucks. Chicago won the #1 seed, but needed overtime against a Tampa Bay team that hadn’t scored a TD since late November. New Orleans is still the #2 seed by virtue of their win over Dallas, but the Saints looked bad against the Deadskins. But, Dallas must defeat a resurgent Philadelphia team next week while New Orleans faces off against the problematic Giants.
Meanwhile, Seattle could lose their next two games and if San Francisco wins their last two, the 49ers will win the West and the #4 seed. I think that’s unlikely as Seattle faces Tampa Bay in Week 17 while San Francisco plays Denver, but it’s a possibility.
Philadelphia has put itself in a good position to lock up the #5 seed, but if they beat Dallas next week and Atlanta after that, Philly would win the NFC East. Either way, Philadelphia is a strong bet to make the playoffs after being left for dead. Atlanta meanwhile is in a world of hurt. They can defeat the Panthers next week to get themselves back to 8-7, but the team’s confidence is shaken after Jim Mora’s comments about possibly leaving if the University of Washington job came open and defeat against the Eagles in week 17 looms large. If the Falcons don’t make the playoffs, Mora will probably be fired. The Giants are also still in the mix as they currently hold the #6 seed. Their schedule lends itself towards an 8-8 finish and since they hold the tiebreaker over Atlanta, they get in.
Green Bay, Minnesota, St. Louis, and San Francisco could also all win out to challenge the Giants and Falcons for the last playoff spot, but schedule and tiebreakers favor the Giants. Minnesota has the best chance as they play Green Bay and St. Louis in the last two weeks and if they win those, they would be 8-8 with an 8-4 record against the NFC, better than any other potential 8-8 team. But Minnesota has been sketchy and after squandering their chance against the Jets, the Vikings will need to be perfect down the stretch.
So, the current playoff match-ups are as follows:
AFC
#1 San Diego – bye
#2 Baltimore – bye
#6 Denver at #3 Indianapolis
#5 Cincinnati at #4 New England
NFC
#1 Chicago – bye
#2 New Orleans – bye
#6 NY Giants at #3 Dallas
#5 Philadelphia at #4 Seattle
Philadelphia would like nothing better for this to be the case. Seattle is looking very mortal and if they win there, they would travel to Chicago. The Bears don’t look very good either, giving the Eagles a good chance of getting back the NFC title game with a back-up quarterback. Of course, if they win the East, they could fight their way all the way to the #2 seed if New Orleans doesn’t recover. Either way, the Eagles could find themselves in their fifth NFC title game in six years.
Tuesday, December 12, 2006
Samson Exposed
Ehud Olmert, Prime Minister of Israel, admitted in a slip of the tongue what we already know: that Israeli has nuclear weapons. Some people believe that Israel could have the sixth largest nuclear arsenal and probably the most sophisticated delivery system. But Olmert’s mistake came in admitting it at all. Israel has long clung to a policy of ambiguity: don’t admit, don’t deny. Better to keep the Arabs guessing and never have proof. Now, the Arabs have their proof.
Some might not see this as a big deal, but it actually is. Now that the cat is officially out of the bag, Iran is going to thumb its nose at everyone and say that they need nuclear weapons to counter the threat from Israel. Not that the world community was going to stop Iran, but this eliminates any possibility of anyone outside of the US and maybe Britain of applying sanctions to Iran and we already have them in place.
Secondly, Israel can no longer hope for the US backing if they chose to bomb the Iranian sites. Israel was always going to be vilified for a preemptive strike on Iran, but they could have probably counted on the US support and the rest of the world talking out of both sides of their mouth about how it was a terrible thing Israel did, but its also nice to not have a nuclear Iran. Now the world will universally condemn Israel for being a have and imposing its will on its neighbors. The world will try to apply great pressure to Israel and the US will probably not even try to stop it, finding no real hole in the world's argument.
The third consequence is that after some sort of hostilities erupt next year, the UN will come down and demand that the Middle East be declared a nuclear free zone. They might actually enforce it in Iran and other countries, but the focus of their wrath will be on Israel. Israel, to maintain any standing in the world community will be forced to give up their nuclear weapons and subject themselves to UN inspection tours. Without the threat of nuclear reprisals, the enemies of Israel will gather their forces for a large-scale invasion. Losses will be heavy, but if they act quickly, they should overwhelm the unprepared Israelis. At least, that’s what they think.
Midnight is approaching and Olmert is pushing the minute hand only that much faster.
Some might not see this as a big deal, but it actually is. Now that the cat is officially out of the bag, Iran is going to thumb its nose at everyone and say that they need nuclear weapons to counter the threat from Israel. Not that the world community was going to stop Iran, but this eliminates any possibility of anyone outside of the US and maybe Britain of applying sanctions to Iran and we already have them in place.
Secondly, Israel can no longer hope for the US backing if they chose to bomb the Iranian sites. Israel was always going to be vilified for a preemptive strike on Iran, but they could have probably counted on the US support and the rest of the world talking out of both sides of their mouth about how it was a terrible thing Israel did, but its also nice to not have a nuclear Iran. Now the world will universally condemn Israel for being a have and imposing its will on its neighbors. The world will try to apply great pressure to Israel and the US will probably not even try to stop it, finding no real hole in the world's argument.
The third consequence is that after some sort of hostilities erupt next year, the UN will come down and demand that the Middle East be declared a nuclear free zone. They might actually enforce it in Iran and other countries, but the focus of their wrath will be on Israel. Israel, to maintain any standing in the world community will be forced to give up their nuclear weapons and subject themselves to UN inspection tours. Without the threat of nuclear reprisals, the enemies of Israel will gather their forces for a large-scale invasion. Losses will be heavy, but if they act quickly, they should overwhelm the unprepared Israelis. At least, that’s what they think.
Midnight is approaching and Olmert is pushing the minute hand only that much faster.
Monday, December 11, 2006
Israeli Football
First, some football: the AFC continues to be clouded as only two of the 7-5 teams won, while two of the division leaders got slapped silly. San Diego, aided by losses by Denver, Kansas City, and Indianapolis, both won the West but also vaulted into the #1 position. Indianapolis holds a tiebreaker over Baltimore at the moment, but with the lack of run defense, it is possible that Indy could fall behind the Ravens in the quest for the #2 seed. San Diego’s road is easy enough over the last three games that they should be able to hold onto that #1 seed. New England looked terrible but it should still be able to hold onto the East and the #4 seed that will come with it.
The wild card became clearer, although it is not well defined yet. Cincinnati and Jacksonville both won, but each team’s schedule could deal the team crippling blows towards getting into the playoffs. Cincinnati must go to Indianapolis and Denver and win at least one of those games (the Denver game is probably the more needed one) while Jacksonville must square off against a resurgent Tennessee and travel to Kansas City and Jacksonville has not played well on the road this year. The Jets, the Chiefs, and the Broncos are still in things at 7-6 but one more loss will probably doom their playoff chances. The Steelers, Dolphins, Bills, and Titans are still harboring delusions of the playoffs. The Steelers hopes will die against the Ravens in two weeks while the Dolphins and Bills will probably go down in random losses or tiebreakers that were settled when both teams were suffering early in the season. The Titans have a chance, but their failures early will probably doom them.
On the NFC side, Chicago will probably beat the Rams tonight and all but clinch the #1 seed. New Orleans has done well and can probably hold the #2 seed as the Seahawks don’t seem to be doing well at the moment. Dallas is currently sitting in fourth, but can pass the bumbling Seahawks with a couple of wins. The Giants and Eagles currently hold the #5 and #6 seeds but they play each other this weekend. Atlanta is in there as well, but they play Dallas this weekend. So the door is still open for the Panthers. If the Falcons lose to Dallas and the Panthers beat Pittsburgh, they are back in the mix of it for the #6 seed. I don’t think that’s likely and I would opt for 6-7 Minnesota to be more likely to get back in the mix. Ultimately, I think the odds and schedule favor the Giants to secure the #5 seed while the #6 seed will pass to either Atlanta or Minnesota. Minnesota’s schedule is significantly easier than Atlanta’s but they have been so unreliable in the past few games that I can’t pull the trigger on them just yet.
Current Playoff Schedule:
AFC:
#1 San Diego - bye
#2 Indianapolis - bye
#6 Jacksonville at #3 Baltimore
#5 Cincinnati at #4 New England
NFC:
#1 Chicago – bye
#2 New Orleans – bye
#6 Philadelphia at #3 Seattle
#5 NY Giants at #4 Dallas
In non-football related news, Baby X turns 7 months today and is still very cute. She still has some problems with waking up during the night, but we’re trying to power through those.
Meanwhile, the world is still moving with steady progress towards a large confrontation with Israel in the late spring or early summer of 2007. Iran is predicting to have fully fissile material by the end of March, which should give them a fully functional nuclear weapon a couple of months after that. Iran won’t have enough to use in the next confrontation with Israel, but it will probably hold the nuclear weapons as a means of keeping the US forces in Iraq to come to Israel’s aid when the attack is launched. Iran may even be hoping that Israel attempts to knock out the Iran facilities and use that as a means of triggering the war. About the only thing that throws any kind of wrench into their plans is the factionalism among the Palestinians in Gaza that prevents a united front. Iran may back a major power push against Fatah in the next few weeks to secure a united front in the south and Hamas has shown them to be a little more agreeable to Iran’s frame of mind. Either way, I would be very surprised if a large-scale war has not broken out by mid to late May next year.
The wild card became clearer, although it is not well defined yet. Cincinnati and Jacksonville both won, but each team’s schedule could deal the team crippling blows towards getting into the playoffs. Cincinnati must go to Indianapolis and Denver and win at least one of those games (the Denver game is probably the more needed one) while Jacksonville must square off against a resurgent Tennessee and travel to Kansas City and Jacksonville has not played well on the road this year. The Jets, the Chiefs, and the Broncos are still in things at 7-6 but one more loss will probably doom their playoff chances. The Steelers, Dolphins, Bills, and Titans are still harboring delusions of the playoffs. The Steelers hopes will die against the Ravens in two weeks while the Dolphins and Bills will probably go down in random losses or tiebreakers that were settled when both teams were suffering early in the season. The Titans have a chance, but their failures early will probably doom them.
On the NFC side, Chicago will probably beat the Rams tonight and all but clinch the #1 seed. New Orleans has done well and can probably hold the #2 seed as the Seahawks don’t seem to be doing well at the moment. Dallas is currently sitting in fourth, but can pass the bumbling Seahawks with a couple of wins. The Giants and Eagles currently hold the #5 and #6 seeds but they play each other this weekend. Atlanta is in there as well, but they play Dallas this weekend. So the door is still open for the Panthers. If the Falcons lose to Dallas and the Panthers beat Pittsburgh, they are back in the mix of it for the #6 seed. I don’t think that’s likely and I would opt for 6-7 Minnesota to be more likely to get back in the mix. Ultimately, I think the odds and schedule favor the Giants to secure the #5 seed while the #6 seed will pass to either Atlanta or Minnesota. Minnesota’s schedule is significantly easier than Atlanta’s but they have been so unreliable in the past few games that I can’t pull the trigger on them just yet.
Current Playoff Schedule:
AFC:
#1 San Diego - bye
#2 Indianapolis - bye
#6 Jacksonville at #3 Baltimore
#5 Cincinnati at #4 New England
NFC:
#1 Chicago – bye
#2 New Orleans – bye
#6 Philadelphia at #3 Seattle
#5 NY Giants at #4 Dallas
In non-football related news, Baby X turns 7 months today and is still very cute. She still has some problems with waking up during the night, but we’re trying to power through those.
Meanwhile, the world is still moving with steady progress towards a large confrontation with Israel in the late spring or early summer of 2007. Iran is predicting to have fully fissile material by the end of March, which should give them a fully functional nuclear weapon a couple of months after that. Iran won’t have enough to use in the next confrontation with Israel, but it will probably hold the nuclear weapons as a means of keeping the US forces in Iraq to come to Israel’s aid when the attack is launched. Iran may even be hoping that Israel attempts to knock out the Iran facilities and use that as a means of triggering the war. About the only thing that throws any kind of wrench into their plans is the factionalism among the Palestinians in Gaza that prevents a united front. Iran may back a major power push against Fatah in the next few weeks to secure a united front in the south and Hamas has shown them to be a little more agreeable to Iran’s frame of mind. Either way, I would be very surprised if a large-scale war has not broken out by mid to late May next year.
Thursday, December 07, 2006
Football Alternate Universe
Whilst reading a column on the Sports Illustrated site, I came across an interesting comment. Someone had asked what was the most season changing play of the college football season and the writer had responded that (in his opinion) it was Rutgers first attempt at the game winning field goal against Louisville. The kick missed, but a Louisville player jumped offsides, giving Rutgers 5 yards and a second kick. So what would have happened if that player had not jumped offsides and Louisville had won the game in overtime?
Having defeated the two biggest rivals on their schedule, Louisville would have vaulted to the #2 spot in the BCS standings. They would have cemented that standing, as everyone else around them finished with one or two losses and Louisville would now be playing the BCS title game. This would make the folks in Columbus happy, as they have not been looking for a National Championship Game but rather an anointing ceremony. I’m not sure they will get that against Florida but it would have been a little more likely against Louisville. The BCS bowl games would have looked like this:
National Title Bowl: Ohio St. vs. Louisville
Rose: USC vs. Michigan
Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. Boise St.
Sugar: Florida vs. Notre Dame
Orange: Wake Forrest vs. LSU
I was mistakenly under the impression that the Big East automatically went to the Orange Bowl, but that is only true for the ACC. Prior to the BCS it seems it was tradition for the ACC to play the Big East, but they do not have a guaranteed bowl like the others do. So Louisville’s selection would have been like taking an at-large team. The Rose Bowl would have snapped up Michigan to replace Ohio St. and the rest of the Bowls would have selected as they did this year: Sugar, Orange, Fiesta.
Having defeated the two biggest rivals on their schedule, Louisville would have vaulted to the #2 spot in the BCS standings. They would have cemented that standing, as everyone else around them finished with one or two losses and Louisville would now be playing the BCS title game. This would make the folks in Columbus happy, as they have not been looking for a National Championship Game but rather an anointing ceremony. I’m not sure they will get that against Florida but it would have been a little more likely against Louisville. The BCS bowl games would have looked like this:
National Title Bowl: Ohio St. vs. Louisville
Rose: USC vs. Michigan
Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. Boise St.
Sugar: Florida vs. Notre Dame
Orange: Wake Forrest vs. LSU
I was mistakenly under the impression that the Big East automatically went to the Orange Bowl, but that is only true for the ACC. Prior to the BCS it seems it was tradition for the ACC to play the Big East, but they do not have a guaranteed bowl like the others do. So Louisville’s selection would have been like taking an at-large team. The Rose Bowl would have snapped up Michigan to replace Ohio St. and the rest of the Bowls would have selected as they did this year: Sugar, Orange, Fiesta.
Monday, December 04, 2006
More Football
So a few things happened on the way to the Ohio St.-USC game. USC lost to UCLA while Florida actually held up its end of the bargin and beat Arkansas. For this prowess and the desire to not have Michigan play OSU in a rematch, the voters conciously voted Florida into the #2 spot. Michigan is correct to gripe that if USC had won, they would have finished the season at #3 while Florida stayed at #4, that is true. But that is for the BCS voters to decide.
What the voters were really afraid of is a Michigan-Ohio St. rematch where Michigan beats Ohio St. and Florida beats Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl leaving three 1-loss teams and the "National Champion" as a team which didn't even win its conference. Michigan will gripe and complain, but at the end of the day, they had a chance to beat Ohio St. and didn't do it. Let's see if the best of the SEC can. If Florida wins and Michigan defeats USC in the Rose Bowl, then we can discuss what could have been, but for now its Ohio St. vs. Florida.
In the NFL, things got more interesting. The four conference winners are pretty much set in the AFC and only the South is still up for grabs in the NFC. The AFC 1-4 seeds will be Indianapolis, San Diego, Baltimore, and New England with San Diego now in a great position to grab the #1 seed away from Indianapolis. Baltimore and New England will probably fight it out for the #3 and 4 seeds. Chicago has already won the NFC North while Dallas and Seattle have significant leads in the East and West. I think Dallas will secure the #2 seed and Seattle and New Orleans will fight it out for the #3 and 4 seeds.
But it's the AFC wild cards that are the topic of discussion. With the Jets, Cincinnati and Jacksonville all winning and Denver and Kansas City losing, there is now a 5 way tie for two wild card spots. The Jets and the Bengals currently have the tiebreakers that allow them to get in and that may or may not change. The Jets have an easy last four games and should lose no more than one game, puting them in for the #5 seed and a probable date with New England. Kansas City, Jacksonville, and Denver all cross paths with very difficult teams, as does Cincinnati. The team that emerges with only one loss will win the last spot. Cincinnati and Denver face probable losses against Indianapolis and San Diego respectively, setting up their Week 16 match-up as the probable winner take all for trip to Baltimore.
On the NFC side, mediocraty reigns supreme as 6-5 Carolina and 6-6 NY Giants fill the two wild card spots and 6-6 Atlanta waits in the wings. It is highly probable that the #6 seed in the NFC will be 9-7 or possibly worse.
But at this particular moment, I would say that San Diego beats Dallas in the Super Bowl. We'll see.
What the voters were really afraid of is a Michigan-Ohio St. rematch where Michigan beats Ohio St. and Florida beats Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl leaving three 1-loss teams and the "National Champion" as a team which didn't even win its conference. Michigan will gripe and complain, but at the end of the day, they had a chance to beat Ohio St. and didn't do it. Let's see if the best of the SEC can. If Florida wins and Michigan defeats USC in the Rose Bowl, then we can discuss what could have been, but for now its Ohio St. vs. Florida.
In the NFL, things got more interesting. The four conference winners are pretty much set in the AFC and only the South is still up for grabs in the NFC. The AFC 1-4 seeds will be Indianapolis, San Diego, Baltimore, and New England with San Diego now in a great position to grab the #1 seed away from Indianapolis. Baltimore and New England will probably fight it out for the #3 and 4 seeds. Chicago has already won the NFC North while Dallas and Seattle have significant leads in the East and West. I think Dallas will secure the #2 seed and Seattle and New Orleans will fight it out for the #3 and 4 seeds.
But it's the AFC wild cards that are the topic of discussion. With the Jets, Cincinnati and Jacksonville all winning and Denver and Kansas City losing, there is now a 5 way tie for two wild card spots. The Jets and the Bengals currently have the tiebreakers that allow them to get in and that may or may not change. The Jets have an easy last four games and should lose no more than one game, puting them in for the #5 seed and a probable date with New England. Kansas City, Jacksonville, and Denver all cross paths with very difficult teams, as does Cincinnati. The team that emerges with only one loss will win the last spot. Cincinnati and Denver face probable losses against Indianapolis and San Diego respectively, setting up their Week 16 match-up as the probable winner take all for trip to Baltimore.
On the NFC side, mediocraty reigns supreme as 6-5 Carolina and 6-6 NY Giants fill the two wild card spots and 6-6 Atlanta waits in the wings. It is highly probable that the #6 seed in the NFC will be 9-7 or possibly worse.
But at this particular moment, I would say that San Diego beats Dallas in the Super Bowl. We'll see.
Monday, November 27, 2006
Thanksgiving Football
Well, another weekend of football has come and gone. Turkey day was good and I even managed to avoid killing anyone with my cooking.
The BCS bowl games became much clearer with several key losses. First, USC defeating Notre Dame vaulted them firmly over Michigan and unless USC goes down to UCLA, they will play Ohio St. in the National Championship. This of course must annoy the Rose Bowl because it means that the Rose Bowl would have been the de facto national championship in the pre-BCS era.
In the other 4 conferences, the championships are set. The Big 12 is Nebraska vs. Oklahoma with the winner going to the Fiesta Bowl where they will play Boise St. Florida plays Arkansas for the SEC championship and a berth in the Sugar Bowl. If Arkansas wins, there will be no debate, but if Florida wins, Urban Meyer will be grousing for quite a while about his team not getting a shot at the National Title game. So the BCS folks are quietly hoping that Arkansas kicks Florida’s butt.
The Orange Bowl will feature the ACC Champ (Wake Forrest or Georgia Tech) vs. the Big East Champ. The Big East champion will be determined by the West Virginia –Rutgers game. Most people are pretty confident that Louisville will beat UConn, leaving Louisville at 11-1. If Rutgers wins, they have the tiebreaker against Louisville and will win the Big East. If West Virginia wins, Louisville will be the only one loss team in the conference and will win. However, if West Virginia wins and Louisville somehow loses to UConn, there will be a three-way tie and the overall BCS standings will determine who goes to the Orange Bowl.
That just leaves the two at-large spots in the Sugar Bowl and the Rose Bowl, since Michigan will take Ohio St.’s spot in the Rose. Next highest in the BCS standings without a championship spot is LSU at #5, which is an automatic berth in a BCS game if there is room. Given that no one wants to see a rematch of SEC teams in the Sugar Bowl, LSU will go play Michigan in the Rose Bowl.
That just leaves the Sugar Bowl and who will play Florida or Arkansas. On the surface, it would seem that Wisconsin should get the nod, as they are the next best team that’s not a champion, but apparently there is a rule in the BCS that no conference can send more than 2 teams to BCS games. Thus, Wisconsin can’t get to the BCS even though they may end up finishing the season in the #6 spot of the BCS. Running down the rankings, there are two possibilities. If Rutgers wins the Big East, Louisville would go (assuming they beat UConn) as they are currently ranked #6 and the top six teams automatically go. But, if Louisville wins the Big East, the next team would be Notre Dame, who are currently #10 in the BCS standings and would trump any SEC team ahead of them as there are already two SEC teams in the BCS.
Thus, my current BCS Bowl projections currently shake out as:
National Title Game: Ohio St. vs. USC
Rose Bowl: Michigan vs. LSU
Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska vs. Boise St.
Orange Bowl: Louisville vs. Georgia Tech
Sugar Bowl: Arkansas vs. Notre Dame
On the NFL front, the AFC leaders tightened their grip while the wild card spots got a little looser. Indianapolis, Baltimore, San Diego, and New England currently hold the 1-4 seeds respectively and only some jostling between Indy, San Diego and Baltimore seem likely in shifting the seeds. The wild cards are Denver, and Kansas City, but they are both sitting with 7-4 records and Denver will be trotting out Jay Cutler starting next week at QB. Thus the door is now open for the three teams tied in the #7 hole: NY Jets, Jacksonville, and Cincinnati. I firmly believe that one of those AFC West teams will go down (I had firmly believed that it would be KC until Thursday), so one of teams currently on the outside will make it. The easy choice would be Jacksonville, but after they lost to Buffalo, they need some soul searching to find themselves. Cincinnati still has a very hard schedule to overcome and the Jets are still not that convincing. I’m going to need another week to see who is capable of seizing that last spot.
On the NFC side, even with their loss, Chicago is still in a strong position. Dallas has seized control of the NFC East and if they beat the Giants this upcoming week, they will be in good position to grab the #2 seed. New Orleans has a one game lead in the south and if Carolina continues to play Jekyll and Hyde, New Orleans should be able to hold itself up and make it in as the #3 seed. Seattle is currently sitting as the #4 seed and will be getting back most of its starters. The NY Giants and Carolina are the #5 and 6 seeds but things are so mediocre in this area that only Arizona, Detroit, and Tampa Bay are truly out of the playoff picture.
The BCS bowl games became much clearer with several key losses. First, USC defeating Notre Dame vaulted them firmly over Michigan and unless USC goes down to UCLA, they will play Ohio St. in the National Championship. This of course must annoy the Rose Bowl because it means that the Rose Bowl would have been the de facto national championship in the pre-BCS era.
In the other 4 conferences, the championships are set. The Big 12 is Nebraska vs. Oklahoma with the winner going to the Fiesta Bowl where they will play Boise St. Florida plays Arkansas for the SEC championship and a berth in the Sugar Bowl. If Arkansas wins, there will be no debate, but if Florida wins, Urban Meyer will be grousing for quite a while about his team not getting a shot at the National Title game. So the BCS folks are quietly hoping that Arkansas kicks Florida’s butt.
The Orange Bowl will feature the ACC Champ (Wake Forrest or Georgia Tech) vs. the Big East Champ. The Big East champion will be determined by the West Virginia –Rutgers game. Most people are pretty confident that Louisville will beat UConn, leaving Louisville at 11-1. If Rutgers wins, they have the tiebreaker against Louisville and will win the Big East. If West Virginia wins, Louisville will be the only one loss team in the conference and will win. However, if West Virginia wins and Louisville somehow loses to UConn, there will be a three-way tie and the overall BCS standings will determine who goes to the Orange Bowl.
That just leaves the two at-large spots in the Sugar Bowl and the Rose Bowl, since Michigan will take Ohio St.’s spot in the Rose. Next highest in the BCS standings without a championship spot is LSU at #5, which is an automatic berth in a BCS game if there is room. Given that no one wants to see a rematch of SEC teams in the Sugar Bowl, LSU will go play Michigan in the Rose Bowl.
That just leaves the Sugar Bowl and who will play Florida or Arkansas. On the surface, it would seem that Wisconsin should get the nod, as they are the next best team that’s not a champion, but apparently there is a rule in the BCS that no conference can send more than 2 teams to BCS games. Thus, Wisconsin can’t get to the BCS even though they may end up finishing the season in the #6 spot of the BCS. Running down the rankings, there are two possibilities. If Rutgers wins the Big East, Louisville would go (assuming they beat UConn) as they are currently ranked #6 and the top six teams automatically go. But, if Louisville wins the Big East, the next team would be Notre Dame, who are currently #10 in the BCS standings and would trump any SEC team ahead of them as there are already two SEC teams in the BCS.
Thus, my current BCS Bowl projections currently shake out as:
National Title Game: Ohio St. vs. USC
Rose Bowl: Michigan vs. LSU
Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska vs. Boise St.
Orange Bowl: Louisville vs. Georgia Tech
Sugar Bowl: Arkansas vs. Notre Dame
On the NFL front, the AFC leaders tightened their grip while the wild card spots got a little looser. Indianapolis, Baltimore, San Diego, and New England currently hold the 1-4 seeds respectively and only some jostling between Indy, San Diego and Baltimore seem likely in shifting the seeds. The wild cards are Denver, and Kansas City, but they are both sitting with 7-4 records and Denver will be trotting out Jay Cutler starting next week at QB. Thus the door is now open for the three teams tied in the #7 hole: NY Jets, Jacksonville, and Cincinnati. I firmly believe that one of those AFC West teams will go down (I had firmly believed that it would be KC until Thursday), so one of teams currently on the outside will make it. The easy choice would be Jacksonville, but after they lost to Buffalo, they need some soul searching to find themselves. Cincinnati still has a very hard schedule to overcome and the Jets are still not that convincing. I’m going to need another week to see who is capable of seizing that last spot.
On the NFC side, even with their loss, Chicago is still in a strong position. Dallas has seized control of the NFC East and if they beat the Giants this upcoming week, they will be in good position to grab the #2 seed. New Orleans has a one game lead in the south and if Carolina continues to play Jekyll and Hyde, New Orleans should be able to hold itself up and make it in as the #3 seed. Seattle is currently sitting as the #4 seed and will be getting back most of its starters. The NY Giants and Carolina are the #5 and 6 seeds but things are so mediocre in this area that only Arizona, Detroit, and Tampa Bay are truly out of the playoff picture.
Tuesday, November 21, 2006
Correcting the Football Projections
An amendment is required for my Bowl Projections. In the Rose Bowl I had placed Cal as an “at large” and then put West Virginia in the Orange Bowl as the Big East Champion. However that did not reflect the current reality of the college football world. Had Rutgers remained unbeaten until it faced West Virginia and then lost to West Virginia, there would have been a three-way tie for first place in the Big East between West Virginia, Rutgers and Louisville. In that situation, the tiebreaker would have been the BCS standings of each team, of which West Virginia would have been highest.
However, Rutgers lost to Cincinnati this past weekend. This means that if West Virginia beats Rutgers (and Louisville and West Virginia finish with only one loss), the tiebreaker is the head to head match-up, which Louisville won. So, Louisville would win the Big East and the automatic berth in the Orange Bowl. This also means that there is a legitimate possibility that West Virginia will be sitting at either #5 or #6 in the BCS and get an automatic berth in a BCS bowl game. With Boise St. and Notre Dame also qualifying for consideration, the Rose Bowl would be forced into selecting one of these three teams and would probably opt for West Virginia as it no longer can get a Big 10-Pac 10 match up that it wants. So, the current bowl projections under this revised system are:
National Title Game: Ohio St. vs. USC
Rose Bowl: Michigan vs. West Virginia
Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs. Boise St.
Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Notre Dame
Orange Bowl: Louisville vs. Georgia Tech
These of course are subject to change. Texas will play Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship and Florida will play Arkansas in the SEC championship. Georgia Tech has locked up the ACC Coastal, but will be playing either Boston College or Wake Forrest in the ACC title game. Maryland might have a shot in there as well, but I think BC will beat Miami this weekend and that would knock Maryland out of contention. Boise St., in theory, could also lose its last game and get knocked out of its automatic berth by finishing at #12 or better in the BCS. But I doubt that will happen.
So, realistically, the only thing that is an absolute lock is that Ohio St. will be playing in the National Championship Bowl and that Notre Dame will get a BCS at-large bid, but it won’t be to the national title game or a match-up against Michigan. Current odds favor the above bids though as USC’s BCS rank will vault over Michigan if USC beats Notre Dame. Florida’s only shot at the title game is USC beating Notre Dame and then losing to UCLA, plus Arkansas beating LSU and then Florida destroying Arkansas in the SEC title game. A two-loss Notre Dame will drop Michigan’s strength of schedule and if Florida beats down a strong scheduled Arkansas team, it might push them just over the hump of Michigan. But I think the odds of USC losing to UCLA are rather small. A Notre Dame win over USC will probably cement an Ohio St.-Michigan rematch, unless the BCS voters consciously vote Florida over Michigan to specifically keep Michigan out of the title game, something I'm not sure they are ready to do.
On the NFL side of things, the picture is becoming clearer. The AFC top 5 are pretty much set at Indianapolis, San Diego, New England, Baltimore, and Denver. This leaves Jacksonville, Kansas City, the NY Jets, and Cincinnati fighting it out for the #6 seed. Jacksonville currently has the inside track.
In the NFC, injuries may give Dallas the East, but the Giants are not out just yet. Chicago is currently running away with the #1 seed as it has a three game lead over all other division leaders. The South is starting to swing Carolina’s way, but New Orleans may have enough fight left to secure a wild card spot now that Atlanta is returning to mediocrity. Seattle better get healthy quickly or they will be overtaken by San Francisco for the West crown.
If the season ended today, the NFL match-ups would be as follows:
AFC:
#1 Indianapolis – bye
#2 Baltimore – bye
#6 Jacksonville at #3 San Diego
#5 Denver at #4 New England
NFC:
#1 Chicago – bye
#2 NY Giants – bye
#6 Dallas at #3 Seattle
#5 New Orleans at #4 Carolina
However, Rutgers lost to Cincinnati this past weekend. This means that if West Virginia beats Rutgers (and Louisville and West Virginia finish with only one loss), the tiebreaker is the head to head match-up, which Louisville won. So, Louisville would win the Big East and the automatic berth in the Orange Bowl. This also means that there is a legitimate possibility that West Virginia will be sitting at either #5 or #6 in the BCS and get an automatic berth in a BCS bowl game. With Boise St. and Notre Dame also qualifying for consideration, the Rose Bowl would be forced into selecting one of these three teams and would probably opt for West Virginia as it no longer can get a Big 10-Pac 10 match up that it wants. So, the current bowl projections under this revised system are:
National Title Game: Ohio St. vs. USC
Rose Bowl: Michigan vs. West Virginia
Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs. Boise St.
Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Notre Dame
Orange Bowl: Louisville vs. Georgia Tech
These of course are subject to change. Texas will play Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship and Florida will play Arkansas in the SEC championship. Georgia Tech has locked up the ACC Coastal, but will be playing either Boston College or Wake Forrest in the ACC title game. Maryland might have a shot in there as well, but I think BC will beat Miami this weekend and that would knock Maryland out of contention. Boise St., in theory, could also lose its last game and get knocked out of its automatic berth by finishing at #12 or better in the BCS. But I doubt that will happen.
So, realistically, the only thing that is an absolute lock is that Ohio St. will be playing in the National Championship Bowl and that Notre Dame will get a BCS at-large bid, but it won’t be to the national title game or a match-up against Michigan. Current odds favor the above bids though as USC’s BCS rank will vault over Michigan if USC beats Notre Dame. Florida’s only shot at the title game is USC beating Notre Dame and then losing to UCLA, plus Arkansas beating LSU and then Florida destroying Arkansas in the SEC title game. A two-loss Notre Dame will drop Michigan’s strength of schedule and if Florida beats down a strong scheduled Arkansas team, it might push them just over the hump of Michigan. But I think the odds of USC losing to UCLA are rather small. A Notre Dame win over USC will probably cement an Ohio St.-Michigan rematch, unless the BCS voters consciously vote Florida over Michigan to specifically keep Michigan out of the title game, something I'm not sure they are ready to do.
On the NFL side of things, the picture is becoming clearer. The AFC top 5 are pretty much set at Indianapolis, San Diego, New England, Baltimore, and Denver. This leaves Jacksonville, Kansas City, the NY Jets, and Cincinnati fighting it out for the #6 seed. Jacksonville currently has the inside track.
In the NFC, injuries may give Dallas the East, but the Giants are not out just yet. Chicago is currently running away with the #1 seed as it has a three game lead over all other division leaders. The South is starting to swing Carolina’s way, but New Orleans may have enough fight left to secure a wild card spot now that Atlanta is returning to mediocrity. Seattle better get healthy quickly or they will be overtaken by San Francisco for the West crown.
If the season ended today, the NFL match-ups would be as follows:
AFC:
#1 Indianapolis – bye
#2 Baltimore – bye
#6 Jacksonville at #3 San Diego
#5 Denver at #4 New England
NFC:
#1 Chicago – bye
#2 NY Giants – bye
#6 Dallas at #3 Seattle
#5 New Orleans at #4 Carolina
Monday, November 20, 2006
Rematch?
Well, the rankings are out and Michigan is still #2 in the BCS. Some people are probably already hitting the panic button regarding a rematch, however, it should be pointed out that the other three teams in contention to play Ohio St. for the title still have three games left. One of those teams will be automatically eliminated from contention when Florida plays Arkansas in the SEC title game. USC still has a strong claim to the title match so long as they beat Notre Dame and UCLA. The Ohio St.-Michigan game being close destroyed any change Notre Dame had of getting into the title game and Rutgers loss to Cincinnati caused a huge sigh of relief for the folks at the BCS accounting department.
So who will go? I’m not sure. The consensus among the talking heads is that if USC wins out, they should go over Michigan. However, if USC falls to Notre Dame or UCLA, I’m not sure the voters will necessarily try to vault Florida into the top spot. I think Arkansas is in a hard position due to the fact that USC blew them out at home early in the season. Perhaps if they really thump LSU, they can get some talk about them, but most of the focus seems to be between Michigan, USC, and Florida. Personally, I think USC will win out and be rewarded by the voters to go play Ohio St. Immediately after the game there was talk about how good it was and that a rematch would be interesting, but I believe there is enough disquiet among the BCS voters about giving Michigan a second chance that they will look closely and try to get someone in the title game ahead of Michigan.
The 5 BCS bowls are looking like the following:
National Title game: Ohio St. vs. USC
Rose Bowl: Michigan vs. Cal
Fiesta: Texas vs. Boise St.
Sugar: Florida vs. Notre Dame
Orange: West Virginia vs. Georgia Tech
So who will go? I’m not sure. The consensus among the talking heads is that if USC wins out, they should go over Michigan. However, if USC falls to Notre Dame or UCLA, I’m not sure the voters will necessarily try to vault Florida into the top spot. I think Arkansas is in a hard position due to the fact that USC blew them out at home early in the season. Perhaps if they really thump LSU, they can get some talk about them, but most of the focus seems to be between Michigan, USC, and Florida. Personally, I think USC will win out and be rewarded by the voters to go play Ohio St. Immediately after the game there was talk about how good it was and that a rematch would be interesting, but I believe there is enough disquiet among the BCS voters about giving Michigan a second chance that they will look closely and try to get someone in the title game ahead of Michigan.
The 5 BCS bowls are looking like the following:
National Title game: Ohio St. vs. USC
Rose Bowl: Michigan vs. Cal
Fiesta: Texas vs. Boise St.
Sugar: Florida vs. Notre Dame
Orange: West Virginia vs. Georgia Tech
Thursday, November 09, 2006
Election Fallout
Well, it becomes official sometime today that the Democrats have officially won both the House and Senate. In the grand scheme of things, it doesn’t really change much. There will be a lot more gridlock and Bush will be using his veto a lot more in his final two years. About the only major thing is that since the Democrats have gained control of the Senate, Bush will not be able to push through any significantly conservative judges. In fact, if either Ginsburg or Stevens decides to retire in the next two years, the Democrats will all but force Bush to nominate a liberal justice to replace them. That won’t really change anything on the court, although I’m sure Bush would have liked to get a 6-3 conservative majority rather than keep the 5-4 he has now.
Gridlock is not necessarily a bad thing when you realize that the mentality of most elected officials is “Don’t just stand there, spend something!” A few things will get through, but talk about increasing the minimum wage and some of the other liberal perks will get shot down by Bush and even now the Democrats won’t have enough votes to override his veto. Probably the real winner in this is John McCain. If the Democrats don’t do anything stupid, there is no reason to believe that they won’t keep their majority in Congress (or at least the House). Thus, you will need a President who can work with that and is seen as a bit more moderate. I’m not sure the people will be ready to trust a Democratic Congress with a Democratic president just yet, but a moderate Republican president with a history of working across the aisle will be a bit more palatable to the people. Enter John McCain.
There is one major downside to this change though. The Democrats have made it no secret that they intend to use their control of the purse strings to force the Pentagon to start scaling back in Iraq and a few other places. That will limit our mobility for a while and I think that Syria, Iran, and the Palestinians are going to try and take advantage of the situation. The Palestinians are seriously hurting for cash and they are starting to feel the pressure of the Israeli incursions into Gaza. Rather than be rational and stop fighting and recognize Israel, the Palestinians will probably coordinate with the leader of Hamas in Damascus, who will arrange a three way assault against Israel between Hezbollah, the Palestinians, and Syria. Iran will probably find a way to send money and materials over to the Arabs to keep the war going. While the world stands by and talks about it as they did during the Lebanon crisis, the Arabs might catch the Israelis by surprise enough and with overwhelming numbers to overrun a portion of their military. If that happens, the Israelis will have very little choice to turn to desperate measures to keep themselves afloat.
One other little note, former Iowa governor Tom Vilsak officially announced he is running for President today. Joe Biden is also believed to be running although he has not announced it yet. John Kerry and John Edwards never stopped running, although they too have not formally announced their candidacies yet. Hillary Clinton also has not said much and she has also given very mixed signals as to whether she will try to run. I must admit, I think the primary fight would be a lot more entertaining if she did not run. It gets boring when one candidate crushes everyone. But Vilsak running officially means that everyone else is running for second place when the Iowa straw poll comes about in January 2008.
Gridlock is not necessarily a bad thing when you realize that the mentality of most elected officials is “Don’t just stand there, spend something!” A few things will get through, but talk about increasing the minimum wage and some of the other liberal perks will get shot down by Bush and even now the Democrats won’t have enough votes to override his veto. Probably the real winner in this is John McCain. If the Democrats don’t do anything stupid, there is no reason to believe that they won’t keep their majority in Congress (or at least the House). Thus, you will need a President who can work with that and is seen as a bit more moderate. I’m not sure the people will be ready to trust a Democratic Congress with a Democratic president just yet, but a moderate Republican president with a history of working across the aisle will be a bit more palatable to the people. Enter John McCain.
There is one major downside to this change though. The Democrats have made it no secret that they intend to use their control of the purse strings to force the Pentagon to start scaling back in Iraq and a few other places. That will limit our mobility for a while and I think that Syria, Iran, and the Palestinians are going to try and take advantage of the situation. The Palestinians are seriously hurting for cash and they are starting to feel the pressure of the Israeli incursions into Gaza. Rather than be rational and stop fighting and recognize Israel, the Palestinians will probably coordinate with the leader of Hamas in Damascus, who will arrange a three way assault against Israel between Hezbollah, the Palestinians, and Syria. Iran will probably find a way to send money and materials over to the Arabs to keep the war going. While the world stands by and talks about it as they did during the Lebanon crisis, the Arabs might catch the Israelis by surprise enough and with overwhelming numbers to overrun a portion of their military. If that happens, the Israelis will have very little choice to turn to desperate measures to keep themselves afloat.
One other little note, former Iowa governor Tom Vilsak officially announced he is running for President today. Joe Biden is also believed to be running although he has not announced it yet. John Kerry and John Edwards never stopped running, although they too have not formally announced their candidacies yet. Hillary Clinton also has not said much and she has also given very mixed signals as to whether she will try to run. I must admit, I think the primary fight would be a lot more entertaining if she did not run. It gets boring when one candidate crushes everyone. But Vilsak running officially means that everyone else is running for second place when the Iowa straw poll comes about in January 2008.
Monday, October 30, 2006
Sports Fallout
As predicted, I finished the baseball playoffs at 0 and 7. But, I'm quite happy with having the St. Louis Cardinals win the World Series. I'm sure my grandfather was quite happy that night.
On the football front, things are still a bit murky in Cincinnati. The Bengals lost to the Falcons showing that they still have problems with the O line and the secondary is still missing one or two players. But, the Bengals are still in the hunt for the #6 seed. Right now the AFC playoffs will include Indianapolis, New England, Denver, Baltimore, and San Diego. I see very little to change this in the coming weeks. There are realistically, two teams vying for that last spot: Cincinnati and Jacksonville. Some might argue that the Jets and Chiefs should be considered as well, but the Jets are bad and I don't think any division will send three teams and the AFC West is already going to contribute Denver and San Diego. Jacksonville has an easier schedule but they've been very inconsistent as of late. I think this race will remain murky for a while yet.
On the NFC side, its a bit fuzzier. Chicago, the NY Giants, and Seattle are all in good positions, although if Seattle suffers any more injuries, they will be in a world of hurt. Atlanta is looking good and I'm not quite ready to give up on New Orleans yet. There is also Minnesota and St. Louis to consider as well as what happens with Dallas and Philly, although I'm less worried about these two. As far as the NFC goes, the only thing I'm reasonably comfortable with right now is the idea that Chicago will get the #1 seed.
On the college front, USC lost a little earlier than anyone was expecting, although a lot of the people that follow college football closely were expecting USC to stumble at some point. This sets up Ohio St. and Michigan as the clear #1 and #2. I could even see people within the two schools proclaiming that this will be the true national championship game. One might find that hard to argue with given the way the standings could shake out. Right now, West Virginia is #3 and they will solidify that ranking a bit more firmly if they beat #6 Louisville on Thursday. If West Virgina remains unbeaten, the Fiesta Bowl will be the Ohio St. - Michigan winner vs. West Virginia and I think some people would grumble about that due to a lack of respect for the Big East. Actually, the Big East is better than the ACC this year but very few people want to admit that. I personally don't have a problem with this matchup, but I think a lot of people would rather see the Ohio St. - Michigan winner face off against the SEC winner, especially if it's a strong 1 loss team like Florida. They might not be as stringent about it if Arkansas ends up coming out of the scrum that is the SEC.
The gigantic fear of the BCS folks is if both West Virginia and Louisville get beaten at some point in the season. This will probably mean that Rutgers will have emerged as the unbeaten champion. Unlikely, but possible. Or, if West Virgina or Louisville emerge as the Big East champion with 1 loss. Then you'll have Ohio St. or Michigan waiting for someone with one loss while some minor unbeaten team shrieks about not getting credit. Some folks are even proposing that if Ohio St. - Michigan is a very close game that the two schools rematch in the Fiesta Bowl. There are scenarios where that is possible. But at the moment, the road we are on now is geared toward a Ohio St. vs. West Virgina national chamionship. You also have Boise St. and Notre Dame lurking around to spar for those two at large bowl spots. Imagine the cry from some corners of the realm if Boise St. and Notre Dame get to play in BCS bowls and a 1 loss Michigan team gets left out. Such as this:
Fiesta - Ohio St. vs. West Virgina
Rose - Notre Dame vs. Boise St.
Orange - Texas vs. Florida
Sugar - Boston College vs. Cal
On the football front, things are still a bit murky in Cincinnati. The Bengals lost to the Falcons showing that they still have problems with the O line and the secondary is still missing one or two players. But, the Bengals are still in the hunt for the #6 seed. Right now the AFC playoffs will include Indianapolis, New England, Denver, Baltimore, and San Diego. I see very little to change this in the coming weeks. There are realistically, two teams vying for that last spot: Cincinnati and Jacksonville. Some might argue that the Jets and Chiefs should be considered as well, but the Jets are bad and I don't think any division will send three teams and the AFC West is already going to contribute Denver and San Diego. Jacksonville has an easier schedule but they've been very inconsistent as of late. I think this race will remain murky for a while yet.
On the NFC side, its a bit fuzzier. Chicago, the NY Giants, and Seattle are all in good positions, although if Seattle suffers any more injuries, they will be in a world of hurt. Atlanta is looking good and I'm not quite ready to give up on New Orleans yet. There is also Minnesota and St. Louis to consider as well as what happens with Dallas and Philly, although I'm less worried about these two. As far as the NFC goes, the only thing I'm reasonably comfortable with right now is the idea that Chicago will get the #1 seed.
On the college front, USC lost a little earlier than anyone was expecting, although a lot of the people that follow college football closely were expecting USC to stumble at some point. This sets up Ohio St. and Michigan as the clear #1 and #2. I could even see people within the two schools proclaiming that this will be the true national championship game. One might find that hard to argue with given the way the standings could shake out. Right now, West Virginia is #3 and they will solidify that ranking a bit more firmly if they beat #6 Louisville on Thursday. If West Virgina remains unbeaten, the Fiesta Bowl will be the Ohio St. - Michigan winner vs. West Virginia and I think some people would grumble about that due to a lack of respect for the Big East. Actually, the Big East is better than the ACC this year but very few people want to admit that. I personally don't have a problem with this matchup, but I think a lot of people would rather see the Ohio St. - Michigan winner face off against the SEC winner, especially if it's a strong 1 loss team like Florida. They might not be as stringent about it if Arkansas ends up coming out of the scrum that is the SEC.
The gigantic fear of the BCS folks is if both West Virginia and Louisville get beaten at some point in the season. This will probably mean that Rutgers will have emerged as the unbeaten champion. Unlikely, but possible. Or, if West Virgina or Louisville emerge as the Big East champion with 1 loss. Then you'll have Ohio St. or Michigan waiting for someone with one loss while some minor unbeaten team shrieks about not getting credit. Some folks are even proposing that if Ohio St. - Michigan is a very close game that the two schools rematch in the Fiesta Bowl. There are scenarios where that is possible. But at the moment, the road we are on now is geared toward a Ohio St. vs. West Virgina national chamionship. You also have Boise St. and Notre Dame lurking around to spar for those two at large bowl spots. Imagine the cry from some corners of the realm if Boise St. and Notre Dame get to play in BCS bowls and a 1 loss Michigan team gets left out. Such as this:
Fiesta - Ohio St. vs. West Virgina
Rose - Notre Dame vs. Boise St.
Orange - Texas vs. Florida
Sugar - Boston College vs. Cal
Friday, October 27, 2006
0 for 6 and maybe 0 for 7
This year has not been good to me picking the postseason. Of course, this just reinforces why I don't go to Vegas and do sports betting. I had a post that got eaten by Blogger last Friday where I picked the Tigers to win the World Series in 5 and then advised everyone else to go out and pick the Cardinals. As it happens, I may have had the length of the series correct, but the team wrong.
Too many things have been happening: Tigers commiting terrible errors, players slipping, balls taking lucky bounces, etc. I also got a weird feeling last night while watching part of game 4. I saw that St. Louis had fallen behind 3-0 and then I saw the Cardinals make it 3-1. After that, I just got the feeling that they were going to claw their way back into it, adding a run here and a run there. I still wasn't sure if they would win the game, but I had this feeling that they would get back into it and make it a late inning game. I turned it off after the 5th inning and was pretty sure that the Tigers would have won it, but St. Louis had pulled it out when I got up this morning.
I don't know if the Cardinals will pull it out tonight. If they don't, I seriously think it will go to 7 games. The Cardinals have a rookie starter going against Kenny Rogers in game 6 so I'm willing to concede game 6 to Detroit. That would put game 7 with Chris Carpenter on the mound for St. Louis and someone else on the mound for Detroit. But right now, the edge certainly favors St. Louis to take it in 5. Of course, there could be another rainout and who knows what will happen after that.
After this seaon, I will test my skills by picking the world series for next year and seeing if those teams finish dead last in their divisions.
Too many things have been happening: Tigers commiting terrible errors, players slipping, balls taking lucky bounces, etc. I also got a weird feeling last night while watching part of game 4. I saw that St. Louis had fallen behind 3-0 and then I saw the Cardinals make it 3-1. After that, I just got the feeling that they were going to claw their way back into it, adding a run here and a run there. I still wasn't sure if they would win the game, but I had this feeling that they would get back into it and make it a late inning game. I turned it off after the 5th inning and was pretty sure that the Tigers would have won it, but St. Louis had pulled it out when I got up this morning.
I don't know if the Cardinals will pull it out tonight. If they don't, I seriously think it will go to 7 games. The Cardinals have a rookie starter going against Kenny Rogers in game 6 so I'm willing to concede game 6 to Detroit. That would put game 7 with Chris Carpenter on the mound for St. Louis and someone else on the mound for Detroit. But right now, the edge certainly favors St. Louis to take it in 5. Of course, there could be another rainout and who knows what will happen after that.
After this seaon, I will test my skills by picking the world series for next year and seeing if those teams finish dead last in their divisions.
Friday, October 20, 2006
A Palatable World Series
I am an absolutely fabulous 0-6 in predicting the baseball playoffs. In fact, I'm so bad that I even predicted the manner of the LCS wrong. I was sure that the ALCS would go at least 6 games and maybe even 7. I thought if there was a chance for a sweep, it would be the Mets. Instead, the Tigers sweep the A's and the Cardinals down the Mets in 7.
Fortunately for me, I'm not a sports gambler and have not lost any money on the playoffs.
So, now what? Even before we knew who the participants were, I said that the American League would defeat the National League team. I see no reason to back off that sentiment. We have been selling the Cardinals short in the playoffs so far, but I just can't quite wrap my brain around St. Louis besting Detroit. The Tigers have this "team of destiny" aura about them right now. Personally, I think St. Louis' only chance is if the Tigers might have gotten out of the groove they found themselves in. But even if they did, I think that only gives St. Louis a chance to stretch the series to 6 or 7 games. My feeling at this point is that the Tigers will win in 5.
So that means put all your bets on St. Louis.
Fortunately for me, I'm not a sports gambler and have not lost any money on the playoffs.
So, now what? Even before we knew who the participants were, I said that the American League would defeat the National League team. I see no reason to back off that sentiment. We have been selling the Cardinals short in the playoffs so far, but I just can't quite wrap my brain around St. Louis besting Detroit. The Tigers have this "team of destiny" aura about them right now. Personally, I think St. Louis' only chance is if the Tigers might have gotten out of the groove they found themselves in. But even if they did, I think that only gives St. Louis a chance to stretch the series to 6 or 7 games. My feeling at this point is that the Tigers will win in 5.
So that means put all your bets on St. Louis.
Tuesday, October 10, 2006
Winowning the NFL
One of the guys I sit next to, Robert, does fantasy football so we talk about football a bit. Even though we’re only on Week 6, the playoffs are coming firmer into focus, at least in the AFC. Right now you have 7 teams fighting for 6 playoff spots with two teams as outside shots: New England, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Denver, and San Diego. Kansas City and Pittsburgh are the outside looking in teams.
Because of the brutal schedules for Baltimore and Cincinnati, and Indianapolis’ inconsistency, I ruefully have to say that it looks like the #1 seed may fall into New England’s lap. Other things may happen, but New England has the appearance of a 12-4 team, although one that could get bounced in its first playoff game. Regardless, New England will win the AFC East just as Indianapolis will win the AFC South. These two facts are just givens.
Baltimore and Cincinnati are both flawed teams. Baltimore’s offense is okay but nothing great. Cincinnati can’t stop the run. One of these teams will win the division. Personally, I hope its Cincinnati, but I don’t think we’re going to know until they play each other. Out West, Denver and San Diego both have schedules with enough weak teams that both should make the playoffs. My gut tells me that San Diego will win the division if Marty Schottenheimer does find ways to fritter it away during close games (see Baltimore game). That leaves the Cincinnati-Baltimore loser and Jacksonville fighting it out for that last playoff spot. In this tight of a race, every game counts.
On the NFC side, things are very murky. Only two things are evident right now: that the road to the Super Bowl will almost definitely go through Soldier Field and that only Green Bay, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Arizona, and San Francisco are not in the playoff hunt. Seattle and St. Louis are on an inside track, but the NFC East and South are so cluttered that it will very difficult to see who comes out of those races without a few more games. I think the Eagles will make it as well as the Saints and perhaps the Panthers. But at this point, the Bears are looking almost unstoppable and it may not matter who fills out the other five slots, especially if they are batter, bruised, and bloodied from their divisional games when the face the Bears.
Because of the brutal schedules for Baltimore and Cincinnati, and Indianapolis’ inconsistency, I ruefully have to say that it looks like the #1 seed may fall into New England’s lap. Other things may happen, but New England has the appearance of a 12-4 team, although one that could get bounced in its first playoff game. Regardless, New England will win the AFC East just as Indianapolis will win the AFC South. These two facts are just givens.
Baltimore and Cincinnati are both flawed teams. Baltimore’s offense is okay but nothing great. Cincinnati can’t stop the run. One of these teams will win the division. Personally, I hope its Cincinnati, but I don’t think we’re going to know until they play each other. Out West, Denver and San Diego both have schedules with enough weak teams that both should make the playoffs. My gut tells me that San Diego will win the division if Marty Schottenheimer does find ways to fritter it away during close games (see Baltimore game). That leaves the Cincinnati-Baltimore loser and Jacksonville fighting it out for that last playoff spot. In this tight of a race, every game counts.
On the NFC side, things are very murky. Only two things are evident right now: that the road to the Super Bowl will almost definitely go through Soldier Field and that only Green Bay, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Arizona, and San Francisco are not in the playoff hunt. Seattle and St. Louis are on an inside track, but the NFC East and South are so cluttered that it will very difficult to see who comes out of those races without a few more games. I think the Eagles will make it as well as the Saints and perhaps the Panthers. But at this point, the Bears are looking almost unstoppable and it may not matter who fills out the other five slots, especially if they are batter, bruised, and bloodied from their divisional games when the face the Bears.
Monday, October 09, 2006
Baseball Skills
In the world of baseball prognostication, I rate an F and couldn’t be happier about it. A week ago I thought we were looking at a rematch of the 1998 World Series. Now, the Yankees are out and the Cardinals are still in. I don’t expect St. Louis to get to the next round, but I thought San Diego would take care of them and we saw how wrong I was there.
In fact, I picked all four series wrong. I was fairly well spoken about the Tigers-Yankees series as well as the St. Louis-San Diego series. Given the way both Detroit and St. Louis limped into the playoffs, I don’t think anyone would have blamed me.
The other two were more up in the air. Oakland-Minnesota I was giving the edge to Minnesota because of how hot they came into the playoffs and Oakland’s history of collapsing in the first round. Obviously someone in Oakland figured out how the change the vibe and Minnesota looked like they ran out of gas.
On the Dodgers-Mets front, I thought New York was the better team, but that all the injuries to the Mets pitching and LA’s strong trio of starters would put the Dodgers into the next round. Obviously I failed to reckon with the Mets’ bats. The pitching wasn’t as bad as everyone thought it would be and the Mets’ hitters took great strides forward and vaulted themselves forward.
Now we have Oakland-Detroit starting tomorrow and New York-St. Louis starting on Wednesday. It would be most fitting if the Tigers and the Mets met in the World Series, as these were the two teams that clearly dominated their leagues for most of the year. I do expect the Mets to take it to the Cardinals. St. Louis might be able to stretch things out to a game 6, but I just think that the New York hitting will overpower St. Louis. I’m not so sure about the AL. Detroit beat Oakland 5 games to 4 in the regular season, but Oakland had better stats. I also feel a little more comfortable with the state of Oakland’s pitching right now. I would expect the Tigers to suffer a little bit of a hangover from their battle with the Yanks, but I also expect them to rally back and force this series to 7 games.
Of course, given my prognostication skills, both St. Louis and Detroit will sweep their respective series for the rubber match of the 1934 and 1968 World Series (St. Louis won in ’34 and Detroit won in ’68).
In fact, I picked all four series wrong. I was fairly well spoken about the Tigers-Yankees series as well as the St. Louis-San Diego series. Given the way both Detroit and St. Louis limped into the playoffs, I don’t think anyone would have blamed me.
The other two were more up in the air. Oakland-Minnesota I was giving the edge to Minnesota because of how hot they came into the playoffs and Oakland’s history of collapsing in the first round. Obviously someone in Oakland figured out how the change the vibe and Minnesota looked like they ran out of gas.
On the Dodgers-Mets front, I thought New York was the better team, but that all the injuries to the Mets pitching and LA’s strong trio of starters would put the Dodgers into the next round. Obviously I failed to reckon with the Mets’ bats. The pitching wasn’t as bad as everyone thought it would be and the Mets’ hitters took great strides forward and vaulted themselves forward.
Now we have Oakland-Detroit starting tomorrow and New York-St. Louis starting on Wednesday. It would be most fitting if the Tigers and the Mets met in the World Series, as these were the two teams that clearly dominated their leagues for most of the year. I do expect the Mets to take it to the Cardinals. St. Louis might be able to stretch things out to a game 6, but I just think that the New York hitting will overpower St. Louis. I’m not so sure about the AL. Detroit beat Oakland 5 games to 4 in the regular season, but Oakland had better stats. I also feel a little more comfortable with the state of Oakland’s pitching right now. I would expect the Tigers to suffer a little bit of a hangover from their battle with the Yanks, but I also expect them to rally back and force this series to 7 games.
Of course, given my prognostication skills, both St. Louis and Detroit will sweep their respective series for the rubber match of the 1934 and 1968 World Series (St. Louis won in ’34 and Detroit won in ’68).
Thursday, October 05, 2006
Plunder and Spoil
Have you come to plunder? Have you gathered your hordes to loot, to carry off silver and gold, to take away livestock and goods and to seize much plunder? - Ezekiel 38:13b
I read with great amusement the stories of escatologists who think that the Battle of Gog and Magog will be happening in the next year or so. It is possible, but there is always so much criteria in the prophecy of the battle that people conviently overlook. Most of the excitement is always bred out of the simple truth that the Battle of Gog and Magog is believed to be the last recorded event before the Rapture. Some even think that the Rapture will happen before this battle and if you can the battle getting ready to happen, people will go out to stand on the hilltops waiting to be caught up.
There are still a large number of events that have to happen before we reach this point. I still believe that we are only in a slight lull before the Amos War starts up again. Many news reports that I've read certainly give credence to the idea that Hezbollah, Syria, and the Palestinians are thinking about taking up another large scale offensive, perhaps as soon as March or April.
However, I did notice this little article in my perusings of various news articles. Gog and her allies are coming for plunder and spoil. An Israel that is completely self sufficient in oil and natural gas reserves will stick very heavily in the craw of Arab states and their allies. If the Arab and Russian oil reserves ever start to look like they might be grinding down or taxed to the limit, I would not be surprised at all to see a mad dash to seize any Israeli reserves, no matter how small.
The pieces are moving into place.
I read with great amusement the stories of escatologists who think that the Battle of Gog and Magog will be happening in the next year or so. It is possible, but there is always so much criteria in the prophecy of the battle that people conviently overlook. Most of the excitement is always bred out of the simple truth that the Battle of Gog and Magog is believed to be the last recorded event before the Rapture. Some even think that the Rapture will happen before this battle and if you can the battle getting ready to happen, people will go out to stand on the hilltops waiting to be caught up.
There are still a large number of events that have to happen before we reach this point. I still believe that we are only in a slight lull before the Amos War starts up again. Many news reports that I've read certainly give credence to the idea that Hezbollah, Syria, and the Palestinians are thinking about taking up another large scale offensive, perhaps as soon as March or April.
However, I did notice this little article in my perusings of various news articles. Gog and her allies are coming for plunder and spoil. An Israel that is completely self sufficient in oil and natural gas reserves will stick very heavily in the craw of Arab states and their allies. If the Arab and Russian oil reserves ever start to look like they might be grinding down or taxed to the limit, I would not be surprised at all to see a mad dash to seize any Israeli reserves, no matter how small.
The pieces are moving into place.
Monday, October 02, 2006
Blue Sports Day
Well, things went to hell for the Bengals this weekend. Looked absolutely pathetic on offense and the defense completely wore down by the middle of the third quarter. For some reason, Palmer never tested the New England secondary. Part of that might have been the breakdown of the offensive line. Palmer has been getting far too much pressure on him this season and unless they find a way to slow down the pass rush, some defensive lineman will knock out Palmer later this season.
Meanwhile, my worst fear came true in baseball: Minnesota won the division. I’m happy for them, but this gives the Yankees an almost clear path to another World Series victory. Had Detroit managed to hold on and win the division, Minnesota would have played the Yankees. Santana would have faced the Yankees in games 1 and possibly 5, plus Minnesota has one of the best home records in the majors. New York might still have won, but Minnesota would have had a very good chance of beating the Yankees in the first round. Now, the Yankees will knock out the reeling and starry-eyed Tigers in either three or four games while Minnesota and Oakland punish each other in their series. Once New York is out of the short series, they’ll be able to rely on their bats and moderate pitching to moderate the effects of one or two great pitchers that either Minnesota or Oakland would be able to throw at them.
As for the National League, the road is pretty much paved with gold for San Diego. The Mets pitching staff is in shambles and they go up against a very good lineup in the Dodgers aces. San Diego should cake walk through St. Louis (whom they beat up heavily on in the second to last series of the season). This puts a strong possibility of a San Diego – LA pennant and San Diego has beaten Los Angeles very effectively this year. So the road seems open for a rematch of the 1998 World Series. Hopefully San Diego can manage to win at least one game this time, but the odds strongly favor another Yankees title.
Meanwhile, my worst fear came true in baseball: Minnesota won the division. I’m happy for them, but this gives the Yankees an almost clear path to another World Series victory. Had Detroit managed to hold on and win the division, Minnesota would have played the Yankees. Santana would have faced the Yankees in games 1 and possibly 5, plus Minnesota has one of the best home records in the majors. New York might still have won, but Minnesota would have had a very good chance of beating the Yankees in the first round. Now, the Yankees will knock out the reeling and starry-eyed Tigers in either three or four games while Minnesota and Oakland punish each other in their series. Once New York is out of the short series, they’ll be able to rely on their bats and moderate pitching to moderate the effects of one or two great pitchers that either Minnesota or Oakland would be able to throw at them.
As for the National League, the road is pretty much paved with gold for San Diego. The Mets pitching staff is in shambles and they go up against a very good lineup in the Dodgers aces. San Diego should cake walk through St. Louis (whom they beat up heavily on in the second to last series of the season). This puts a strong possibility of a San Diego – LA pennant and San Diego has beaten Los Angeles very effectively this year. So the road seems open for a rematch of the 1998 World Series. Hopefully San Diego can manage to win at least one game this time, but the odds strongly favor another Yankees title.
Friday, September 29, 2006
Fool or Genius?
I apologize for being away for over a month. I've been busy at work and also a little bit out of the blogging mood. But I hope to get back into the swing of things and perhaps to some lighter subject material. If the Bengals keep winning, that might be easy.
However, I've been reading a great deal lately about Pope Benedict's comments regarding Mohammed and the subsequent outpouring of rage by the Muslim community. Everything that I've read seems to imply that Benedict was a fool or completely unaware of what his quote of the Byzantine Emperor would do. Yet after watching all this evolve over the past couple of weeks, I've come to a rather different conclusion. Benedict knew exactly what he was doing and is prepping for a grand master plan.
First, let us point out that Benedict is around 80 years old and has been working his way around in the affairs of religious politics for a very long time. The incident with the Danish cartoons depicting Mohammed told everyone exactly what the Muslim community's reaction would be to a perceived slight. Stating that their religion is only spread through fear and violence would obviously set the people off, despite the very stupid notion that by doing so they validate the Byzantine Emperor's opinion of them. There was ample warning of the reaction and only a blind fool would have not seen what would have happened after making those comments.
However, once you read the reaction of the non-Muslim masses regarding the Pope's comments and the Muslim reaction, one comes away with an interesting notion. The West (and indeed most of the world) is currently divided into two camps regarding Islam: those opposed to it and those willing to submit to Islam in the sake of peace. However, after the Pope made his comments, even those who are willing to concede many things to the Muslims in the sake of peace and out of fear of violence think that the Muslim reaction and anger was overblown, especially given the context of the Pope's comments and his repeated attempts to calm the waves. In essence, even though they might not necessarily be religious people or specifically Catholic, the non-Muslim community was brought just a little bit tighter together in opposition of the irrational anger of the Muslims.
If you scan about a look at the major religions of the world, they are all currently in conflict with Islam in some fashion. Christianity wars upon Al-Qaida and other Islamic terrorists in the Middle East and there have been several terrorist incidents and Islamic uprisings in Europe. Judaism and Islam mix like oil and water. Muslims and Hindus fight repeated pitched battles in Kashmir and other places about India. Muslim guerrillas have been fighting against Buddhists in the Philippines, eastern China, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and several other locations in southeast Asia. All it really takes is for enough fear and resolve to build throughout these groups before they unite together against Islam. Yes, its not like Buddhists and Christians have much in common, but when threatened the enemy of my enemy is my friend. This becomes even more pronounced when you see belligerent Muslim nations working very hard to develop nuclear weapons.
This unification probably won't happen overnight, but with his remarks, I believe Benedict has taken a large step towards everyone getting comfortable with the idea of a great unification. Benedict's plan probably involves taking them all under the Roman banner of a future Pope as the Catholic church is the wealthiest and most unified body among all the major religions of the world. This unification will also probably ease everyone's palate and turn a blind eye when Israel finally says enough and beats her Arab neighbors down to the point where they cannot make war on her ever again (an incident that I think is coming very soon). By playing the fool, Benedict has made a significant step forward in the goal a unified superstate/religion. A great war will be required to make it fully come to pass, but man has never shown a problem with going down that road before.
However, I've been reading a great deal lately about Pope Benedict's comments regarding Mohammed and the subsequent outpouring of rage by the Muslim community. Everything that I've read seems to imply that Benedict was a fool or completely unaware of what his quote of the Byzantine Emperor would do. Yet after watching all this evolve over the past couple of weeks, I've come to a rather different conclusion. Benedict knew exactly what he was doing and is prepping for a grand master plan.
First, let us point out that Benedict is around 80 years old and has been working his way around in the affairs of religious politics for a very long time. The incident with the Danish cartoons depicting Mohammed told everyone exactly what the Muslim community's reaction would be to a perceived slight. Stating that their religion is only spread through fear and violence would obviously set the people off, despite the very stupid notion that by doing so they validate the Byzantine Emperor's opinion of them. There was ample warning of the reaction and only a blind fool would have not seen what would have happened after making those comments.
However, once you read the reaction of the non-Muslim masses regarding the Pope's comments and the Muslim reaction, one comes away with an interesting notion. The West (and indeed most of the world) is currently divided into two camps regarding Islam: those opposed to it and those willing to submit to Islam in the sake of peace. However, after the Pope made his comments, even those who are willing to concede many things to the Muslims in the sake of peace and out of fear of violence think that the Muslim reaction and anger was overblown, especially given the context of the Pope's comments and his repeated attempts to calm the waves. In essence, even though they might not necessarily be religious people or specifically Catholic, the non-Muslim community was brought just a little bit tighter together in opposition of the irrational anger of the Muslims.
If you scan about a look at the major religions of the world, they are all currently in conflict with Islam in some fashion. Christianity wars upon Al-Qaida and other Islamic terrorists in the Middle East and there have been several terrorist incidents and Islamic uprisings in Europe. Judaism and Islam mix like oil and water. Muslims and Hindus fight repeated pitched battles in Kashmir and other places about India. Muslim guerrillas have been fighting against Buddhists in the Philippines, eastern China, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and several other locations in southeast Asia. All it really takes is for enough fear and resolve to build throughout these groups before they unite together against Islam. Yes, its not like Buddhists and Christians have much in common, but when threatened the enemy of my enemy is my friend. This becomes even more pronounced when you see belligerent Muslim nations working very hard to develop nuclear weapons.
This unification probably won't happen overnight, but with his remarks, I believe Benedict has taken a large step towards everyone getting comfortable with the idea of a great unification. Benedict's plan probably involves taking them all under the Roman banner of a future Pope as the Catholic church is the wealthiest and most unified body among all the major religions of the world. This unification will also probably ease everyone's palate and turn a blind eye when Israel finally says enough and beats her Arab neighbors down to the point where they cannot make war on her ever again (an incident that I think is coming very soon). By playing the fool, Benedict has made a significant step forward in the goal a unified superstate/religion. A great war will be required to make it fully come to pass, but man has never shown a problem with going down that road before.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
