Well, I will concede that I was wrong about Neville being Harry’s third cousin, once removed. I took a look at a copy of the Black Family Tapestry that had dates on it and used a few logical clues that were in the book and figured out that Harfang Longbottom could not be Neville’s great-grandfather. Most likely, he is Neville’s great uncle, a brother to his grandfather.
Probably the most fun way of determining this was to treat it as a logic puzzle. Neville was born in July 1980 (one day before Harry) and his father and mother were both aurors. Auror training takes three years upon graduation from Hogwarts and information from Mad-Eye Moody in OotP strongly suggests that Frank and Alice were already well-established and popular as aurors by the time they were killed (most likely in 1982). This suggests they were at least 21 and probably older than that when Neville was born.
In HBP we are told that Neville’s grandmother failed her Charms OWL, as was observed by Prof. McGonagall. Prof. McGonagall started teaching in December 1956, per OotP, so if she were observing Augusta as a teacher, Augusta would have had her OWLs in 1957 at the earliest, placing her graduation in 1959. For Frank to be 21 in 1980, Augusta would have had to give birth to him the same year she graduated, possible, but unlikely.
Given the way Neville’s grandmother is described, she seems to be about the same age as Prof. McGonagall, which would place the two of them right around the same year at Hogwarts. Rowling has described Prof. McGonagall as being in her 70’s and she has also stated as having no memory regarding the Chamber of Secrets being opened (1942-43 school year). In fact, given that she had no memory of Tom Riddle at all, it is likely that she graduated around 1938-39 or so, before Riddle came or after his first year.
Knowing a person’s OWL results (especially fails) indicates closeness in age; such that we might guess that Augusta and Minerva were possibly even in the same class. Thus, we might surmise that Augusta also graduated in the late 1930’s, marrying Mr. Longbottom sometime in the 1940’s. Frank was probably born around 1950 or even a little later given his status as a prized only child that Neville must emulate. This would make Frank nearly 30 when Neville was born.
Augusta would then have been born sometime around 1920 and one might surmise that her husband was also born around this time. No dates are given for Harfang Longbottom, but Callidora Black was born in 1915. At only 5 years older than Augusta, it seems likely that Callidora married the older brother of Neville’s grandfather, unless Augusta has a taste for much younger men and I don’t particularly buy that argument.
Some might speculate that there were at least 3 brothers, given that Neville frequently mentions a great-uncle Algie (probably Algernon). However, Algie’s surname is never given. He is portrayed with the air of a slightly crazy old bachelor. No evidence is given, but my own gut feeling is that rather than being Harfang and Mr. Longbottom’s brother, I think Algie is Augusta’s brother who lives near or with his older sister now that her husband has passed away. One can easily imagine Augusta deciding that Neville needed a practical male role model in addition to the ideal of his father that she would give him and invited her brother to visit regularly.
Now, all of this won’t amount to a hill of beans in the last novel, but it does make for fun logic problems.
Speaking of the last book, Mrs. X and I are waiting patiently for our copy, which will be delivered on Saturday sometime. She gets to read it first as she is the faster reader and can take advantage of times when Toddler X is napping to forage ahead. I’ll get to read it after that, although I do at least get to read the table of contents to speculate on when it arrives. We are also filling out our speculation sheets as was forwarded by Mrs. X’s brother. Most are pretty straightforward, but it will be amusing to look at our “predictions” in comparison to what actually happens.
Monday, July 16, 2007
Friday, July 13, 2007
Idle Harry Potter Thoughts
With the soon advent of the final Harry Potter novel, I’ve been roaming around, looking up interesting information to refresh myself with about various things that aren’t extremely obvious in the books. One of the really interesting things is plotting out how everyone is linked to each other (this was greatly aided by Rowling’s release of a segment of the Black Family Tapestry last year).
Ron has a line (I think in Chamber of Secrets) where he mentions that it was important for wizards to marry Muggles or Muggle-born wizards or the line would have died out. When one examines the genealogy of the various pureblood (or near pureblood) families, one can easily see how correct Ron is. Nearly all the principle characters that hail from pureblood lineages (including Harry) are related in some fashion to each other. In fact, nearly all these characters share descent from Phineas Nigellus Black.
Looking at things from Harry’s point of view, we note that Sirius Black (his godfather) is also his second cousin, as is Bellatrix Lestrange and Narcissa Malfoy. This in turn makes both Tonks and Draco Malfoy his second cousins, once removed. Turning over to the Weasleys, Harry’s best friend (Ron) and his girlfriend (Ginny) are his third cousins. There is also speculation that Neville Longbottom is Harry’s third cousin, once removed; but it is not absolutely clear if the Harfang Longbottom mentioned in the tapestry is in fact Neville’s great-grandfather. It is also possible that Barty Crouch Jr. was Harry’s third cousin as well, but again, the tapestry stops when it comes to naming descendents not tied strongly to the male Black line.
Its also interesting to see the strong Slythern link that runs through the family lines. Draco’s grandmother was a Rosier, his great grandmother was a Crabbe, his great, great grandmother was a Bulstrode, and his great, great, great grandmother was a Flint. One could easily imagine these various families swirling in and out of each other with relative ease. The female Bulstrode and Flint are Harry’s ancestors as well, although one generation back.
Another thing to speculate about is who will take over for the various offices (assuming Hogwarts stays open). Given the problems the Ministry generated by stepping in with Umbridge, it’s likely that Professor McGonagall will be appointed Headmistress. This leaves vacancies in Transfiguration, Defense Against the Dark Arts, the Deputy Head position, and the head of Gryffindor House (assuming that Professor Slughorn stays on). It is possible that one of the minor class teachers (Prof. Sinistra, Madam Hooch, Prof. Vector, Prof. Babbling, the Muggle Studies teacher) could be of Gryffindor House and could take over, but its also possible that McGonagall could just appoint the new Transfiguration teacher as the head of the house.
Given the history of the DADA job, I would think it somewhat unlikely that whoever gets that job would be appointed to be a head of house, until there is some evidence that the curse against it has been broken. Some circles have suggested that Hagrid might be the most senior Gryffindor and could get the head of house nod, but his lack of being a qualified wizard would probably count against him. What’s more, Prof. McGonagall, while fond of Hagrid, has been shown to be highly dubious of Hagrid’s decision making capabilities and is unlikely to place him in a position of heavy responsibility and power. Likewise, Prof. Binns is probably out of the running due to his being a ghost.
My own personal guess is that Prof. Flitwick is probably on the inside track to being appointed Deputy Headmaster.
Ron has a line (I think in Chamber of Secrets) where he mentions that it was important for wizards to marry Muggles or Muggle-born wizards or the line would have died out. When one examines the genealogy of the various pureblood (or near pureblood) families, one can easily see how correct Ron is. Nearly all the principle characters that hail from pureblood lineages (including Harry) are related in some fashion to each other. In fact, nearly all these characters share descent from Phineas Nigellus Black.
Looking at things from Harry’s point of view, we note that Sirius Black (his godfather) is also his second cousin, as is Bellatrix Lestrange and Narcissa Malfoy. This in turn makes both Tonks and Draco Malfoy his second cousins, once removed. Turning over to the Weasleys, Harry’s best friend (Ron) and his girlfriend (Ginny) are his third cousins. There is also speculation that Neville Longbottom is Harry’s third cousin, once removed; but it is not absolutely clear if the Harfang Longbottom mentioned in the tapestry is in fact Neville’s great-grandfather. It is also possible that Barty Crouch Jr. was Harry’s third cousin as well, but again, the tapestry stops when it comes to naming descendents not tied strongly to the male Black line.
Its also interesting to see the strong Slythern link that runs through the family lines. Draco’s grandmother was a Rosier, his great grandmother was a Crabbe, his great, great grandmother was a Bulstrode, and his great, great, great grandmother was a Flint. One could easily imagine these various families swirling in and out of each other with relative ease. The female Bulstrode and Flint are Harry’s ancestors as well, although one generation back.
Another thing to speculate about is who will take over for the various offices (assuming Hogwarts stays open). Given the problems the Ministry generated by stepping in with Umbridge, it’s likely that Professor McGonagall will be appointed Headmistress. This leaves vacancies in Transfiguration, Defense Against the Dark Arts, the Deputy Head position, and the head of Gryffindor House (assuming that Professor Slughorn stays on). It is possible that one of the minor class teachers (Prof. Sinistra, Madam Hooch, Prof. Vector, Prof. Babbling, the Muggle Studies teacher) could be of Gryffindor House and could take over, but its also possible that McGonagall could just appoint the new Transfiguration teacher as the head of the house.
Given the history of the DADA job, I would think it somewhat unlikely that whoever gets that job would be appointed to be a head of house, until there is some evidence that the curse against it has been broken. Some circles have suggested that Hagrid might be the most senior Gryffindor and could get the head of house nod, but his lack of being a qualified wizard would probably count against him. What’s more, Prof. McGonagall, while fond of Hagrid, has been shown to be highly dubious of Hagrid’s decision making capabilities and is unlikely to place him in a position of heavy responsibility and power. Likewise, Prof. Binns is probably out of the running due to his being a ghost.
My own personal guess is that Prof. Flitwick is probably on the inside track to being appointed Deputy Headmaster.
Wednesday, June 27, 2007
Sopranos Thoughts
So Mrs. X and I finished up with the final season of The Sopranos the other night. We don’t have HBO so Mrs. X’s brother Mr. A recorded the season on tape for us. We had tried to avoid spoilers but Mrs. X had learned about Chris’ death and I had learned about the attack on Bobby and Silvio. Even beyond that, it was very hard to avoid learning about the last 5 minutes of the last episode. Although I can say that we were both surprised at the manor of Phil’s death (yuck).
Obviously I’m late to the game when it comes to how the show ended. I actually didn’t mind it, but I had been prepared for it. If I had been watching, I think I would have been a little irritated. I like threads coming to conclusions, even if you disagree with how they choose to end it. The abruptness of the ending leads me to believe that something specific happened at that moment. I would probably have to go back to season 1 and see how the series began to garner a couple of extra clues regarding the ending. I believe it ended with Tony coming into Dr. Malfi’s office, but I’m not sure.
I haven’t had a chance to read EW’s article on the subject, but I’ve seen several theories already about what the ending meant. The first is obviously that the show just ended and life goes on, though we are no longer privy to it. Mrs. X leans more in this camp.
Second theory is that the fellow in the Members Only jacket comes out of the bathroom and kills Tony. There are shades of the Godfather in the set up of the scene and it would give an added point to the flashback scene in the previous episode where Bobby noted that you probably don’t even hear your death coming.
Third theory was that the whole thing was a dream sequence and Tony is still out on the run from Phil. This comment was based on the person noting that Tony went to bed in an unmade bed and without any other comforts. However, I think it’s obvious that some time has passed and once the first night was over, Tony would have made the bed and put in a few things. The fact that he took up his AR-15 in a later scene showed that he was still carrying it around with him whenever he went upstairs into the bedroom. So I don’t agree with this theory.
A fourth theory, which I believe has some merit is that, it wasn’t Tony that died, but his dream of a normal family life. The whole series has been about justifying his mob life and trying to get a normal family. The fantasy segment began when he entered the restaurant and saw himself sitting at a booth like a normal man. His family comes in and they try to act normal, but Carmella brings up the Carlo business and AJ also reminds him that he now works for him in a way (since Little Carmine shares his interests with Jersey and New York). The music reminds Tony to not stop believing in the dream, but he does and everything ends. My only quibble with this theory is that I don’t like the timing on the ending if he is letting the dream die. The shot ends with him looking up as someone comes in the front door. If he was letting the dream die, I would have expected a sigh or other sign of dejection come over him before looking up. So I’m still on the fence about this one.
Still, its been an entertaining series and one can only hope that a new series comes along with this much entertainment value.
Obviously I’m late to the game when it comes to how the show ended. I actually didn’t mind it, but I had been prepared for it. If I had been watching, I think I would have been a little irritated. I like threads coming to conclusions, even if you disagree with how they choose to end it. The abruptness of the ending leads me to believe that something specific happened at that moment. I would probably have to go back to season 1 and see how the series began to garner a couple of extra clues regarding the ending. I believe it ended with Tony coming into Dr. Malfi’s office, but I’m not sure.
I haven’t had a chance to read EW’s article on the subject, but I’ve seen several theories already about what the ending meant. The first is obviously that the show just ended and life goes on, though we are no longer privy to it. Mrs. X leans more in this camp.
Second theory is that the fellow in the Members Only jacket comes out of the bathroom and kills Tony. There are shades of the Godfather in the set up of the scene and it would give an added point to the flashback scene in the previous episode where Bobby noted that you probably don’t even hear your death coming.
Third theory was that the whole thing was a dream sequence and Tony is still out on the run from Phil. This comment was based on the person noting that Tony went to bed in an unmade bed and without any other comforts. However, I think it’s obvious that some time has passed and once the first night was over, Tony would have made the bed and put in a few things. The fact that he took up his AR-15 in a later scene showed that he was still carrying it around with him whenever he went upstairs into the bedroom. So I don’t agree with this theory.
A fourth theory, which I believe has some merit is that, it wasn’t Tony that died, but his dream of a normal family life. The whole series has been about justifying his mob life and trying to get a normal family. The fantasy segment began when he entered the restaurant and saw himself sitting at a booth like a normal man. His family comes in and they try to act normal, but Carmella brings up the Carlo business and AJ also reminds him that he now works for him in a way (since Little Carmine shares his interests with Jersey and New York). The music reminds Tony to not stop believing in the dream, but he does and everything ends. My only quibble with this theory is that I don’t like the timing on the ending if he is letting the dream die. The shot ends with him looking up as someone comes in the front door. If he was letting the dream die, I would have expected a sigh or other sign of dejection come over him before looking up. So I’m still on the fence about this one.
Still, its been an entertaining series and one can only hope that a new series comes along with this much entertainment value.
Tuesday, June 05, 2007
The Erised Trap
Mrs. X and I have been spending the last few months rereading the various Harry Potter books in preparation for the 7th book being released in July. I’ve also been reading a series of essays over on Red Hen. Most are interesting, although the author does have some serious issues about what to what to expect out of Rowling’s work. Of course, anyone who is going to write in that volume about a series is probably a bit over the top. But there have been some interesting points made in various essays.
One of the most interesting is the argument made over the labyrinth in Sorcerer’s Stone. Mrs. X has been quite vocal about her annoyance that the series of obstacles guarding the sorcerer’s stone were too easy and that the teachers could have done a much better job than put up some tasks that three first year’s could have gotten through. However, it has been argued that the point of the various obstacles was actually not to stop Voldemort but to merely delay him.
Dumbledore’s method of hiding the stone in the mirror was all the protection the stone really needed. Quirrell/Voldemort had no way of getting to the stone in the mirror so all the other tasks were quite meaningless. What’s more, Dumbledore could have simply put the stone in the mirror and set it up in his office if he was really interested in keeping the stone out of Voldemort’s hands. Voldemort would never have been able to get the stone and getting into Dumbledore’s office would have been even harder than getting through the third floor corridor. So why the elaborate defenses?
The answer is rather simple. The labyrinth was a trap. The majority of the tasks were not difficult, but they were time consuming. Catching a flying key would have taken time (presumably the keys would have been immune to Accio), the chess match would have taken a lot of time, and even the logic puzzle would have required some time to sort out. Fluffy and the Devil’s Snare wouldn’t have taken a lot of time, but they were also the first tasks and Voldemort would have been suspicious if the entrance tasks weren’t dangerous. Quirrell’s troll obviously is something he knew he could get past quickly and doesn’t factor into the equation.
Dumbledore would have known that when he was taken away from Hogwarts and Voldemort went down into the labyrinth, he could return and find Voldemort and Quirrell still trying to get the stone out of the mirror. There Dumbledore could have neutralized Quirrell and tried to find some way of trapping Voldemort in an object or some other sort of prison. Once done, Dumbledore could have destroyed Voldemort’s horcruxes at his leisure and then dealt with Voldemort as he saw fit.
The trap probably had evolved over the course of the summer. Quirrell had probably been hired as the DADA teacher during the ’89-‘90 term and then left to get some practical experience (and keeping with the curse on the job). When he came back at the end of the ’90-’91 term he was already putting on his twitch performance to disguise any idiosyncrasies in his behavior. Voldemort had not taken physical possession of Quirrell yet (he wasn’t wearing his turban until the start of the ’91-’92 term) but his mind had already been bent to Voldemort’s will. Dumbledore knew that Quirrell had been wandering in Voldemort’s rumored territory and was probably able to scan Quirrell’s mind and get a bead on things.
Dumbledore quickly hatched a daring plan. He contacted his friend Flamel and convinced him to give up the stone as bait. Dumbledore then made an announcement to his staff about hearing rumors of a danger to the stone and had offered to keep it at Hogwarts for safekeeping. Dumbledore probably went to individual teachers and asked for a specific guardian in their specialty. Once Hagrid arrived with the stone, the trap was set. Voldemort jumped at the opportunity, but decided to make a grab for the stone before it was in place.
Something that gets overlooked is the fact the Quirrell was already at Diagon Alley before Hagrid arrived. He also met Hagrid in the pub and could probably guess that he was there to collect the stone. Quirrell might have been fighting back against Voldemort’s power by delaying just long enough to know that his attempt on the vault would be too late. It would seem that after this, Voldemort took no more chances and directly possessed Quirrell. This also was a dangerous gambit since Voldemort’s possession would have drained Quirrell’s life and forced Voldemort to supplement with unicorn blood within 6 months of taking control of Quirrell.
The only other question is given that Quirrell was dying on him, why did Voldemort wait until June to make a grab for the stone? Voldemort was always very cautious and never makes a move if he can make others do it for him. He floated a test balloon of the castle’s defenses over Halloween by letting a troll into the building, but then ran into Snape and Fluffy. Voldemort then waited for the dust to settle and see if Snape blew the whistle on him. When he didn’t, Voldemort set about tricking Hagrid to get past Fluffy. Voldemort probably could have gotten past the dog without Hagrid’s information, but he was determined to be as unobtrusive as possible. At the same time he was trying to get the information from Hagrid, Voldemort was probably also trying to get information on the other obstacles from the other teachers.
Voldemort had the information from Hagrid and probably the other teachers by spring, but he waited even longer. Voldemort was cautious, but he also had been unable to gather what obstacle that Dumbledore himself had put in the labyrinth. Finally, he decided that he couldn’t wait any longer as term was about it end and decided to go for it. Dumbledore was lured out of the castle and Quirrell went down into the labyrinth.
But Dumbledore made one small mistake. He underestimated Harry and co.’s determination to muddle in. Some have suggested that Voldemort waited to go down until Harry decided to go down the trapdoor to stop Snape so that he could use him to get the stone. However, if this were the case, I think we would have seen Quirrell offer Harry more hints about what he knew and tried to nudge him down the trapdoor sooner (much as Barty Crouch Jr. did in GoF). Instead, Harry goes down of his own accord and nearly screws everything by pulling the stone out of the mirror.
I suspect that Dumbledore had two other little tricks that would have aided him in trapping Voldemort that are implied in the text. First, he had some sort of warning system in place if the stone actually came out of the mirror. Dumbledore mentioned that he suddenly felt that he was needed back at Hogwarts. This probably coincided with Harry getting the stone out of the mirror.
Second, Dumbledore might have set up an apparition tunnel into the mirror chamber. Dumbledore arrived in the chamber in time to pull Quirrell off of Harry and Harry heard Dumbledore’s voice before he passed out. If Dumbledore’s intention was to trap Voldemort and deal with him in the mirror room, it makes sense that he would have set up a method to bypass the other tasks. House elves seem to be able to ignore the anti-apparition spells that are placed on Hogwarts and Dumbledore consistently lifts the restriction in the great hall during apparition lessons. Given this kind of flexibility, it makes sense that Dumbledore might have created a spot where you could apparate into the mirror room, but only from one other point in the castle (like his office).
Thus, when Dumbledore got his warning about the stone at the ministry, he immediately apparated to gates of Hogwarts and then ran inside. He then ran to his office and apparated from the point he had designated, to the window point in the mirror room, arriving in time to pull Quirrell off Harry.
The only other fly in the ointment regarding this is why Dumbledore showed Harry how the mirror works if it wasn’t to remove the stone. Dumbledore probably had two objectives. He did want Harry to know how the mirror works so that he could have recovered the stone for Dumbledore if necessary. Dumbledore might have been unable to retrieve the stone due to his desire to destroy the stone and he would have needed a third party to get it out of the mirror.
But I think the main reason that Harry was shown the mirror was to test him. Dumbledore hoped that Harry was not coming to Hogwarts with the attitudes of Tom Riddle, but he couldn’t be sure. Only by observing his reaction to the mirror and what he saw could Dumbledore judge Harry’s character. Rather than showing him power and then keeping it a secret as Tom Riddle would have seen and done, Harry saw his family and immediately ran off to show Ron.
Harry passed the test with flying colors, but also was now equipped with the information that almost allowed Voldemort to acquire the stone. Thanks to Harry’s involvement, Voldemort escaped and Dumbledore stepped hard into the trap he had hoped to avoid as mentioned in Order of the Phoenix: helping and hoping that Harry could have a normal life.
One of the most interesting is the argument made over the labyrinth in Sorcerer’s Stone. Mrs. X has been quite vocal about her annoyance that the series of obstacles guarding the sorcerer’s stone were too easy and that the teachers could have done a much better job than put up some tasks that three first year’s could have gotten through. However, it has been argued that the point of the various obstacles was actually not to stop Voldemort but to merely delay him.
Dumbledore’s method of hiding the stone in the mirror was all the protection the stone really needed. Quirrell/Voldemort had no way of getting to the stone in the mirror so all the other tasks were quite meaningless. What’s more, Dumbledore could have simply put the stone in the mirror and set it up in his office if he was really interested in keeping the stone out of Voldemort’s hands. Voldemort would never have been able to get the stone and getting into Dumbledore’s office would have been even harder than getting through the third floor corridor. So why the elaborate defenses?
The answer is rather simple. The labyrinth was a trap. The majority of the tasks were not difficult, but they were time consuming. Catching a flying key would have taken time (presumably the keys would have been immune to Accio), the chess match would have taken a lot of time, and even the logic puzzle would have required some time to sort out. Fluffy and the Devil’s Snare wouldn’t have taken a lot of time, but they were also the first tasks and Voldemort would have been suspicious if the entrance tasks weren’t dangerous. Quirrell’s troll obviously is something he knew he could get past quickly and doesn’t factor into the equation.
Dumbledore would have known that when he was taken away from Hogwarts and Voldemort went down into the labyrinth, he could return and find Voldemort and Quirrell still trying to get the stone out of the mirror. There Dumbledore could have neutralized Quirrell and tried to find some way of trapping Voldemort in an object or some other sort of prison. Once done, Dumbledore could have destroyed Voldemort’s horcruxes at his leisure and then dealt with Voldemort as he saw fit.
The trap probably had evolved over the course of the summer. Quirrell had probably been hired as the DADA teacher during the ’89-‘90 term and then left to get some practical experience (and keeping with the curse on the job). When he came back at the end of the ’90-’91 term he was already putting on his twitch performance to disguise any idiosyncrasies in his behavior. Voldemort had not taken physical possession of Quirrell yet (he wasn’t wearing his turban until the start of the ’91-’92 term) but his mind had already been bent to Voldemort’s will. Dumbledore knew that Quirrell had been wandering in Voldemort’s rumored territory and was probably able to scan Quirrell’s mind and get a bead on things.
Dumbledore quickly hatched a daring plan. He contacted his friend Flamel and convinced him to give up the stone as bait. Dumbledore then made an announcement to his staff about hearing rumors of a danger to the stone and had offered to keep it at Hogwarts for safekeeping. Dumbledore probably went to individual teachers and asked for a specific guardian in their specialty. Once Hagrid arrived with the stone, the trap was set. Voldemort jumped at the opportunity, but decided to make a grab for the stone before it was in place.
Something that gets overlooked is the fact the Quirrell was already at Diagon Alley before Hagrid arrived. He also met Hagrid in the pub and could probably guess that he was there to collect the stone. Quirrell might have been fighting back against Voldemort’s power by delaying just long enough to know that his attempt on the vault would be too late. It would seem that after this, Voldemort took no more chances and directly possessed Quirrell. This also was a dangerous gambit since Voldemort’s possession would have drained Quirrell’s life and forced Voldemort to supplement with unicorn blood within 6 months of taking control of Quirrell.
The only other question is given that Quirrell was dying on him, why did Voldemort wait until June to make a grab for the stone? Voldemort was always very cautious and never makes a move if he can make others do it for him. He floated a test balloon of the castle’s defenses over Halloween by letting a troll into the building, but then ran into Snape and Fluffy. Voldemort then waited for the dust to settle and see if Snape blew the whistle on him. When he didn’t, Voldemort set about tricking Hagrid to get past Fluffy. Voldemort probably could have gotten past the dog without Hagrid’s information, but he was determined to be as unobtrusive as possible. At the same time he was trying to get the information from Hagrid, Voldemort was probably also trying to get information on the other obstacles from the other teachers.
Voldemort had the information from Hagrid and probably the other teachers by spring, but he waited even longer. Voldemort was cautious, but he also had been unable to gather what obstacle that Dumbledore himself had put in the labyrinth. Finally, he decided that he couldn’t wait any longer as term was about it end and decided to go for it. Dumbledore was lured out of the castle and Quirrell went down into the labyrinth.
But Dumbledore made one small mistake. He underestimated Harry and co.’s determination to muddle in. Some have suggested that Voldemort waited to go down until Harry decided to go down the trapdoor to stop Snape so that he could use him to get the stone. However, if this were the case, I think we would have seen Quirrell offer Harry more hints about what he knew and tried to nudge him down the trapdoor sooner (much as Barty Crouch Jr. did in GoF). Instead, Harry goes down of his own accord and nearly screws everything by pulling the stone out of the mirror.
I suspect that Dumbledore had two other little tricks that would have aided him in trapping Voldemort that are implied in the text. First, he had some sort of warning system in place if the stone actually came out of the mirror. Dumbledore mentioned that he suddenly felt that he was needed back at Hogwarts. This probably coincided with Harry getting the stone out of the mirror.
Second, Dumbledore might have set up an apparition tunnel into the mirror chamber. Dumbledore arrived in the chamber in time to pull Quirrell off of Harry and Harry heard Dumbledore’s voice before he passed out. If Dumbledore’s intention was to trap Voldemort and deal with him in the mirror room, it makes sense that he would have set up a method to bypass the other tasks. House elves seem to be able to ignore the anti-apparition spells that are placed on Hogwarts and Dumbledore consistently lifts the restriction in the great hall during apparition lessons. Given this kind of flexibility, it makes sense that Dumbledore might have created a spot where you could apparate into the mirror room, but only from one other point in the castle (like his office).
Thus, when Dumbledore got his warning about the stone at the ministry, he immediately apparated to gates of Hogwarts and then ran inside. He then ran to his office and apparated from the point he had designated, to the window point in the mirror room, arriving in time to pull Quirrell off Harry.
The only other fly in the ointment regarding this is why Dumbledore showed Harry how the mirror works if it wasn’t to remove the stone. Dumbledore probably had two objectives. He did want Harry to know how the mirror works so that he could have recovered the stone for Dumbledore if necessary. Dumbledore might have been unable to retrieve the stone due to his desire to destroy the stone and he would have needed a third party to get it out of the mirror.
But I think the main reason that Harry was shown the mirror was to test him. Dumbledore hoped that Harry was not coming to Hogwarts with the attitudes of Tom Riddle, but he couldn’t be sure. Only by observing his reaction to the mirror and what he saw could Dumbledore judge Harry’s character. Rather than showing him power and then keeping it a secret as Tom Riddle would have seen and done, Harry saw his family and immediately ran off to show Ron.
Harry passed the test with flying colors, but also was now equipped with the information that almost allowed Voldemort to acquire the stone. Thanks to Harry’s involvement, Voldemort escaped and Dumbledore stepped hard into the trap he had hoped to avoid as mentioned in Order of the Phoenix: helping and hoping that Harry could have a normal life.
Tuesday, May 01, 2007
Into the Valley of Elah
The Israeli government just released a preliminary report that is highly critical of Prime Minister Olmert and Defense Minister Peretz in the recent war with Lebanon. The final report is due in July, but the even the preliminary report is so scathing that the two men will probably be forced to resign their posts sometime in the next two months.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah and Hamas are starting to get a little more desperate. Things haven’t gone that smoothly for them and their own local populaces are starting to get testy. Syria recently was forced to put down a minor uprising among its Kurdish population and even Iran is clamping down on protesters. All these things indicate that the leaders of these various movements are going to need a good distraction.
The always-obvious choice is to attack Israel and unite in a broad war. This prospect gets even juicier when you realize that at the point of resignation, the Israeli leadership will be in a state of chaos. The Arabs will not want to wait too long to attack following the resignations because there is a legitimate chance that Israel could call new elections and Benjamin Netinyahu will come into power. He will organize the military to fight back in ways that are more detrimental to the Arabs and a key opportunity will have been lost.
Couple this with the fact that Israel will celebrate Jerusalem Day in a couple of weeks (May 16), marking the 40th anniversary of the capture of Jerusalem. This type of celebration will stick heavily in the craw of the Arabs. I would look for some kind of incident anywhere from 2 to 8 weeks from now, touching off another conflict, perhaps trying another sneak attack on a Jewish holiday such as Pentacost. The wheels are in motion.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah and Hamas are starting to get a little more desperate. Things haven’t gone that smoothly for them and their own local populaces are starting to get testy. Syria recently was forced to put down a minor uprising among its Kurdish population and even Iran is clamping down on protesters. All these things indicate that the leaders of these various movements are going to need a good distraction.
The always-obvious choice is to attack Israel and unite in a broad war. This prospect gets even juicier when you realize that at the point of resignation, the Israeli leadership will be in a state of chaos. The Arabs will not want to wait too long to attack following the resignations because there is a legitimate chance that Israel could call new elections and Benjamin Netinyahu will come into power. He will organize the military to fight back in ways that are more detrimental to the Arabs and a key opportunity will have been lost.
Couple this with the fact that Israel will celebrate Jerusalem Day in a couple of weeks (May 16), marking the 40th anniversary of the capture of Jerusalem. This type of celebration will stick heavily in the craw of the Arabs. I would look for some kind of incident anywhere from 2 to 8 weeks from now, touching off another conflict, perhaps trying another sneak attack on a Jewish holiday such as Pentacost. The wheels are in motion.
Thursday, April 19, 2007
Leaving Turtle Bay?
Every once in a while when you peruse the news, certain articles just jump out at you for totally different reasons.
Most people know that many in the US want nothing more than to kick the UN out of Turtle Bay and back across the pond. Many outside the US would like that as well. But its quite another thing to see a couple of academics propose to move the UN out and into a place specifically mentioned in Biblical fiction.
For those of you who haven't read them, in the Left Behind series, the antichrist (Nicolae Carpathia) moves the UN out of Turtle Bay after becoming UN Secretary-General and moves it to a refurbished Babylon (called New Babylon). There has been speculation among Biblical prophecy scholars that Babylon might be rebuilt and become the world capital (I've wrote about it before) but there has been equal speculation about the spiritually corrupt Babylon refering to Rome, New York, and a host of other cities.
Despite the author's good points, I doubt the UN will leave Turtle Bay soon. New York is cushy and UN diplomats are not bold people. If they ever did move to Babylon, the city would become the most heavily defended fortress the world has ever seen, although they would balance this out with some of the nicest places to eat in the world. I can only imagine what that would cost.
Still, I would keep an eye on this story. I firmly believe that the UN will pull out of Turtle Bay some day and relocation to a place in the Middle East does make a good deal of sense given where the functioning mission of the UN is likely to be focused.
Most people know that many in the US want nothing more than to kick the UN out of Turtle Bay and back across the pond. Many outside the US would like that as well. But its quite another thing to see a couple of academics propose to move the UN out and into a place specifically mentioned in Biblical fiction.
For those of you who haven't read them, in the Left Behind series, the antichrist (Nicolae Carpathia) moves the UN out of Turtle Bay after becoming UN Secretary-General and moves it to a refurbished Babylon (called New Babylon). There has been speculation among Biblical prophecy scholars that Babylon might be rebuilt and become the world capital (I've wrote about it before) but there has been equal speculation about the spiritually corrupt Babylon refering to Rome, New York, and a host of other cities.
Despite the author's good points, I doubt the UN will leave Turtle Bay soon. New York is cushy and UN diplomats are not bold people. If they ever did move to Babylon, the city would become the most heavily defended fortress the world has ever seen, although they would balance this out with some of the nicest places to eat in the world. I can only imagine what that would cost.
Still, I would keep an eye on this story. I firmly believe that the UN will pull out of Turtle Bay some day and relocation to a place in the Middle East does make a good deal of sense given where the functioning mission of the UN is likely to be focused.
Tuesday, March 20, 2007
Islam and the Tribulation
Here’s a random bit of thinking that got me going. Throughout the ages Christians have tried to discern the specifics of Revelation and how end times events are going to happen. As of late, with the current war of fundamentalist Islam, many Christians have speculated on the possibility that the Antichrist will be a Muslim and he will lead a great global jihad against the rest of the world leading to his eventual worship as a god.
My problem with this theory is that it’s a bit too flavor of the month. Obviously every end times projection is colored with the politics of the era in which it is written, but there are some nuances about Islam that don’t quite fit Revelation. First, Muslims worship Allah as a lone deity and their concepts of a messiah do not involve the worship of him personally. In fact, Christians are derided as polytheists because of our belief in the Triune God (the Al-Aqsa mosque has an inscription that states “There is only one god and he has no son”). Any attempt by a Muslim to focus worship on anyone other than Allah (including the messiah) would be seen as blasphemy.
Second, the Antichrist is supposed to rise from an assembly of European leaders and proclaimed leader over all (eventually moving to become ruler of the world). While Europe is gaining in Muslim population, there have been increased incidents of resistance to both Jihadist propaganda and Muslim special treatment. Europeans could proclaim someone who espouses to be a Muslim as a compromise to their Muslim populations, but Islamisation of Europe is still in its early stages and will take many years yet for Muslim led governments to form.
Third, the long stated goal of Jihadists is a religious Caliphate, much as existed back in the 9th century. While Islam was the uniting force, the Caliph was only a religious leader/king and was never the focus of worship.
Nevertheless, the proliferation of Islam into all cultures of the world requires some sort of answer. Siding right along with the Antichrist for the first three and half years of the Tribulation is the One-World Church (believed to be the culmination of the ecumenicalism movement). Most faiths have decided they can work together in some sort of live and let live fashion with the exception of Islam. Islam demands subservience. It seems rather unlikely that Muslims around the world would be prepared to all sit in a circle and say that Islam is just as good as Buddhism or Hinduism (to say nothing of Judaism). Nor would the militant Jihadists be content to bow down before a man who has declared himself god.
One of the things that is also mentioned in Revelation that gets a bit glossed over is the great war that will erupt over the world not long after the Antichrist takes power. About one-quarter of the world population will die in the war due to battle, famine and disease (1.5 billion people according to today’s numbers). What if this war is the great and final push of Muslims against the world government? Utilizing the nuclear arsenals of the world and the threat of global jihad, the Antichrist could cement his power in pushing back the fundamentalist threat. What’s more, once the Muslim menace has been dealt with, it might give the Antichrist enough leverage to declare that all fundamentalist sects are a menace (Christians, Jews, etc.) and to prevent further religious wars, all are banned except the worship of him. Anyone not bowing down to him and swearing loyalty to the state must be planning violence and be executed immediately.
It might be a stretch, but I think it makes for a very plausible scenario in today’s political climate. Of course, we’ve been waiting for the Rapture and the start of the Tribulation for nearly 2,000 years now. This scenario could be completely bollixed even five years from now. We shall just have to wait and see.
My problem with this theory is that it’s a bit too flavor of the month. Obviously every end times projection is colored with the politics of the era in which it is written, but there are some nuances about Islam that don’t quite fit Revelation. First, Muslims worship Allah as a lone deity and their concepts of a messiah do not involve the worship of him personally. In fact, Christians are derided as polytheists because of our belief in the Triune God (the Al-Aqsa mosque has an inscription that states “There is only one god and he has no son”). Any attempt by a Muslim to focus worship on anyone other than Allah (including the messiah) would be seen as blasphemy.
Second, the Antichrist is supposed to rise from an assembly of European leaders and proclaimed leader over all (eventually moving to become ruler of the world). While Europe is gaining in Muslim population, there have been increased incidents of resistance to both Jihadist propaganda and Muslim special treatment. Europeans could proclaim someone who espouses to be a Muslim as a compromise to their Muslim populations, but Islamisation of Europe is still in its early stages and will take many years yet for Muslim led governments to form.
Third, the long stated goal of Jihadists is a religious Caliphate, much as existed back in the 9th century. While Islam was the uniting force, the Caliph was only a religious leader/king and was never the focus of worship.
Nevertheless, the proliferation of Islam into all cultures of the world requires some sort of answer. Siding right along with the Antichrist for the first three and half years of the Tribulation is the One-World Church (believed to be the culmination of the ecumenicalism movement). Most faiths have decided they can work together in some sort of live and let live fashion with the exception of Islam. Islam demands subservience. It seems rather unlikely that Muslims around the world would be prepared to all sit in a circle and say that Islam is just as good as Buddhism or Hinduism (to say nothing of Judaism). Nor would the militant Jihadists be content to bow down before a man who has declared himself god.
One of the things that is also mentioned in Revelation that gets a bit glossed over is the great war that will erupt over the world not long after the Antichrist takes power. About one-quarter of the world population will die in the war due to battle, famine and disease (1.5 billion people according to today’s numbers). What if this war is the great and final push of Muslims against the world government? Utilizing the nuclear arsenals of the world and the threat of global jihad, the Antichrist could cement his power in pushing back the fundamentalist threat. What’s more, once the Muslim menace has been dealt with, it might give the Antichrist enough leverage to declare that all fundamentalist sects are a menace (Christians, Jews, etc.) and to prevent further religious wars, all are banned except the worship of him. Anyone not bowing down to him and swearing loyalty to the state must be planning violence and be executed immediately.
It might be a stretch, but I think it makes for a very plausible scenario in today’s political climate. Of course, we’ve been waiting for the Rapture and the start of the Tribulation for nearly 2,000 years now. This scenario could be completely bollixed even five years from now. We shall just have to wait and see.
Wednesday, February 28, 2007
Rolla Update
So if I were in Vegas, I would have won some money. The student in question is Indian and had apparently just enrolled in the MS Civil program in the fall. The white powder he was holding turned out to be powdered sugar. Authorities in this case are strongly leaning toward this as a “suicide by cop” incident. Unfortunately, very little about this story comes as a surprise to me given the culture of the university.
Tuesday, February 27, 2007
Miner Scare
So apparently there was a terrorist incident at my university today. CNN is reporting that a grad student was making threats and claimed to have both a bomb and anthrax. 23 people are in quarantine due to exposure to a white powder and the police are currently holding the student in question.
Despite Rolla’s fairly well established bio-chem program, I doubt the material was truly anthrax. More likely it is some other powder (although not necessarily inert). Now, having bomb-making materials is very possible at Rolla. Wires, timers and potent chemicals are all over the campus and could be gathered with relative ease, especially by a grad student with full access to certain buildings.
Police have not released any information about the student except to say that he is a foreign grad student. Given my knowledge of ratios, I would say there is a high probability that he is of Indian decent, although I’m not going to jump up and say that this might be an Islamic terrorist incident. At the moment it seems more likely to be a case of deep depression over grades (something that happens a lot at Rolla). If this had been a case of true terrorism, I believe the student would have been apprehended trying to plant a bomb in the nuclear reactor on campus rather than with anthrax in the Civil building. I imagine security has been beefed up there, but the idea of spreading radioactive material over several blocks would be a very tempting target for a terrorist.
Still, it does give one pause and keep an open eye towards events happening in places that I am very familiar with.
Despite Rolla’s fairly well established bio-chem program, I doubt the material was truly anthrax. More likely it is some other powder (although not necessarily inert). Now, having bomb-making materials is very possible at Rolla. Wires, timers and potent chemicals are all over the campus and could be gathered with relative ease, especially by a grad student with full access to certain buildings.
Police have not released any information about the student except to say that he is a foreign grad student. Given my knowledge of ratios, I would say there is a high probability that he is of Indian decent, although I’m not going to jump up and say that this might be an Islamic terrorist incident. At the moment it seems more likely to be a case of deep depression over grades (something that happens a lot at Rolla). If this had been a case of true terrorism, I believe the student would have been apprehended trying to plant a bomb in the nuclear reactor on campus rather than with anthrax in the Civil building. I imagine security has been beefed up there, but the idea of spreading radioactive material over several blocks would be a very tempting target for a terrorist.
Still, it does give one pause and keep an open eye towards events happening in places that I am very familiar with.
Monday, February 26, 2007
Death by Oscar
Apparently Mrs. X and I didn’t even make it to the halfway point of last night’s Oscars. We threw in the towel and turned off the lights a little after 10:15 when they started that montage on foreign films. The only Oscar that Mrs. X was interested in was Best Supporting Actress and I was only interested in the “In Memorandum” segment. Neither of us got to see what we were interested in. Instead, we had to parade through a boring siege of behind the scenes Oscars, all for movies that we had not seen. Our sprits were lifted a little when we saw Alan Arkin win Best Supporting Actor. We had actually seen “Little Miss Sunshine” (and found it very amusing) and we hoped we were getting into the meat of the show. But it drug out even more.
One columnist stated that they thought the ratings might be bad enough to get the show bumped over to cable (like on E!) but I think it’ll take a few more years of no one caring for that to happen. After all, what’s the point of cutting off boring speeches for the sake of time, if you’re going to fill that time with inane, unfunny crap? Going over a couple of the liveblogs of the event, it seems like I’m not the only one who thinks so.
Meanwhile, I’ve seen very little enthusiasm for the results. In fact, most things that I’ve seen on-line reflect an extreme ambivalence towards “The Departed” winning best picture. I think that’s because everyone knows that this was a “reward Marty” moment, despite the fact that it was not a great movie and certainly not up to the standards of Raging Bull or Goodfellas. I might also note that I have no intention of seeing this movie as I’ve seen Scoresese’s last two attempts to win an Oscar and both stunk in my opinion (Aviator and Gangs of New York).
So, unless there is a movie that I take a particular rooting interest in (and I don’t see one on the horizon) maybe I’ll just go to bed early during next year’s Oscars.
One columnist stated that they thought the ratings might be bad enough to get the show bumped over to cable (like on E!) but I think it’ll take a few more years of no one caring for that to happen. After all, what’s the point of cutting off boring speeches for the sake of time, if you’re going to fill that time with inane, unfunny crap? Going over a couple of the liveblogs of the event, it seems like I’m not the only one who thinks so.
Meanwhile, I’ve seen very little enthusiasm for the results. In fact, most things that I’ve seen on-line reflect an extreme ambivalence towards “The Departed” winning best picture. I think that’s because everyone knows that this was a “reward Marty” moment, despite the fact that it was not a great movie and certainly not up to the standards of Raging Bull or Goodfellas. I might also note that I have no intention of seeing this movie as I’ve seen Scoresese’s last two attempts to win an Oscar and both stunk in my opinion (Aviator and Gangs of New York).
So, unless there is a movie that I take a particular rooting interest in (and I don’t see one on the horizon) maybe I’ll just go to bed early during next year’s Oscars.
Thursday, February 22, 2007
Schrute-isms
Since I haven't been able to come up with an interesting post in a while, I thought I would post a list of Schrute-isms that I found. Dwight is probably the most amusing charater on The Office and I get a little chuckle when I read these:
1) Remember on Lost when they met The Others?
2) Jim: Hey, Dwight. As sempai, do you ever think there's going to be a day when humans and robots can peacefully coexist?
Dwight: Impossible, in the way they're programmed... You're mocking me.
3) You can't fire me. I don't work for you in the VAN.
4) I was out last night getting drunk with my Laser Tag team…
5) Dwight: I can raise and lower my cholesterol at will.
Pam: Why would you want to raise your cholesterol?
Dwight: So I could lower it.
6) It is blood that moves the wheels of history (much fist pumping and podium pounding included)
7) That is the law, according to the rules.
8) It has to be official, and it has to be urine.
9) Pam: Nice tux Dwight.
Dwight: Thanks. It was my grandfather's. He was buried in it.
10) This is not Kelly Kapoor story-hour! Your ass is on the line, mister! My ass is on the line!
11) Dwight: Can I have a gun?
Security Guard: No, I don't have a gun.
Dwight: Okay, I'll have to bring in my bo-staff.
12) Would I ever leave this company? Look, I'm all about loyalty. In fact, I feel like part of what I'm being paid for here is my loyalty. But if there were somewhere else that valued loyalty more highly, I'm going wherever they value loyalty the most.
13) A thirty-year mortgage at Michael's age essentially means that he's buying a coffin. If I were buying my coffin, I would get one with thicker walls... so you couldn't hear the other dead people.
14) Dwight: Someone forged medical information, and that's a felony.
Jim: OK, Whoa, alright 'cause that's a pretty intense accusation. How do you know that they're fake?
Dwight: Uh, Leprosy? Flesh Eating Bacteria. Hot Dog Fingers. Government Created Killer Nano Robot Infection?
15) In the wild, there is no healthcare. In the wild healthcare is 'Ow, I hurt my leg. I can't run. A lion eats me, and I'm dead.' Well, I'm not dead. I'm the lion. You're dead.
16) Dwight: Uh, knock please. Please knock. This is an office.
Jim: It says 'workspace'.
Dwight: Same thing.
Jim: If it's the same thing then why'd you write 'workspace'?
Dwight: Just knock, please. Okay? A sign of respect for a superior.
Jim: You are not my superior.
Dwight: Oh gee, then why do I have an office?
Jim: I thought it was a workspace.
17) ID badges are long overdue. Security in this office park is a joke. Last year I came to work with my spud gun in a duffel bag. I sat at my desk all day with a rifle that shoots potatoes at 60 pounds per square inch. Can you imagine if I were deranged?
18) Do I feel bad about betraying Jim? Not at all. That's the game: convince him we're in an alliance, get some information, throw him to the wolves. That's politics baby. Get what you can out of someone, then crush them. I think Jim might've learned a very valuable lesson.
19) I hope the war goes on forever and Ryan gets drafted.
20) Question, where can I put my terrarium?
21) I don't believe you. Continue.
22) The Schrutes produce very thirsty babies.
23) My father's name was Dwight Shrute. My grandfather's name was Dwight Shrute. His father name... Dwide Shrude. Amish.
24) So you got the fax? So why didn't you add it to the res…? What do you mean? Of course martial arts training is relevant. Oh, excuse me! I know about a billion Asians that would beg to differ. Uh, yeah, I get a little frustrated when I'm dealing with incompetence. Well, you know what? You can go to hell too. And I will see you there...burning. Fine! Okay, wait. So you'll let me know when you've made a decision?
25) I'm a deer hunter. I go all the time with my dad. One thing about deer, they have very good vision. One thing about me, I am better at hiding than they are...at vision.
26) There wasn't the Long Ranger, and Tonto and Bonto.
27) Do you think this is a good idea Jim; a hide a key rock?
28) Shirts on or off?
29) When someone smiles at me, all I see is a chimpanzee begging for its life.
30) Me and Michael are like Mozart...and Mozart's friend. No, I'm like Butch Cassidy… You mess with Mozart, you're gonna get a bullet in your head. Courtesy of Butch Cassidy.
31) My middle name is NOT fart...
32) Do you wanna die? DO YOU WANNA DIE?
33) Four years of malfeasance unreported, THIS CANNOT STAND!
34) I am faster than 80% of all snakes.
35) I didn't become a Lackawanna county volunteer sheriff's deputy to make friends. And by the way, I haven't.
36) Why should I tip someone for a job I am capable of doing myself? I can deliver food. I can drive a Taxi. I can and do cut my own hair. However I did tip my urologist because I can't pulverize my own kidney stones.
37) One word, two syllables: DEMARCATION.
38) Otherwise, it's just malfeasance, for malfeasances' sake.
39) Oscar visited Mexico when he was 5 to attend his great-grandmother's funeral. What does that mean to a United States Law Enforcement Officer? He's a potential drug mule.
40) tit-for-tit
41) It is amazing how many yeast infections there are in this county. Probably because we live down the river... from that old bread factory.
42) Have you ever -- pooped -- a balloon?
43) And in conclusion, I think Lex Luthor said it best when he said, “Dad, you have no idea what I’m capable of.”
44) I can and will go to New Zealand and walk the trail to Mt. Doom.
45) Question. Do I still have my shoes?
46) Hey everyone, guess what they don't teach in business school: how to work a toaster oven.
47) Do you THINK, or do you KNOW?
48) What is the clitoris?
49) Codename Remax is here. No sign of Lan Jevinson.
50) Dwight: The problem, Jim, is that people who are really suffering from a medical condition won't receive the care they need because someone in this office is coming up with ridiculous stuff. Count Choculitis.
Jim: Sounds Tough.
Dwight: Why did you write that down, Jim? Is it because you know I love Count Chocula?
51) We must deceive them, so as not to hurt them. In that way we honor them.
52) Dwight: Let me give you a piece of advice, I am not afraid to make an example of you.
Jim: That's not advice, what advice sounds like is this, don't bring your purple belt to work, because someone might steal it.
Dwight: Jim, give that back it is not a toy. It is a message, to show everyone in the office that I am capable of physically dominating them.
53) That is defacement of company property, so you better tell me. Kelly, if you tell me, you'll be punished less.
54) Keep your acceptance speeches short. I have wrap-it-up music and I'm not afraid to use it.
55) As a volunteer sheriff's deputy, I've been doing surveillance for years. One time, I suspected an ex-girlfriend of mine of cheating on me, so I tailed her for six nights straight. Turns out, she was. With a couple of guys, actually. So... Mystery solved.
56) Here, let me take you from behind...
57) Where were you? And don't say the bathroom, cause I kicked in all of the stalls.
58) Dwight: This is the most important day of the year. I can't risk anything.
Angela: Fine.
Dwight: What about that meeting, later, to discuss finances?
Angela: Yes. But don't expect any cookie.
Dwight: But what if I'm hungry?
Angela: No cookie.
59) Michael: Dwight, what are you doing here?
Dwight: You said that for when Darryl comes you want me here for protection.
60) The perfect girl for me would be Konikotaka. She was orphaned at age 10 when her parents were assassinated, and she was taken in by a wealthy, but very cruel, businessman. So she secretly practiced aikido for YEARS until she could avenge the death of her parents. She's also a survivor of monster rape.
61) Dwight: Excuse me. I’m sorry, but that’s not all it takes to be a hero.
Mr. Brown: Great. What is a hero to you?
Dwight: A hero kills people. People that wish him harm. A hero is part human and part supernatural. A hero is born out of a childhood trauma, or out of a disaster. And must be avenged.
Mr. Brown: Okay, you’re thinking of a superhero.
Dwight: We all have a hero in our heart.
62) You're going to give me this raise. I deserve this raise. The least you could do is keep my salary consistent with inflation...wakaw...yes! Why are you going to give me this raise? Why? Because I'm awesome, I'm awesome.
63) You may refer to me as Mr. Shrute.
64) The Schrutes consider children very valuable. In the olden days, the women would bear many children. So we would have enough laborers to work the fields. And if it was an especially cold winter, and there weren't enough grains for vegetables, they would get the weakest of the brood. (laughs) No, they didn't eat the children... It never came to that.
65) Don't worry Michael; I'm taking us to shore
66) Women are like wolves. If you want a wolf, you have to trap it. You have to snare it, and then you have to tame it, keep it happy, care for it, feed it. Lovingly, the way an animal deserves to be loved. And my animal deserves a lot of loving.
67) Dwight: It's a terrible idea.
Jim: What is?
Dwight: Them when they're all together. If they stay in there too long they're gonna get on the same cycle. Wreak havoc on our plumbing.
68) You have walked the long lonely walk of loneliness.
69) I know this Russian website you can download songs for a penny but their all in Russian.
70) Aw man! Am I a woman?
71) Yankee Swap is like Machiavelli meets... Christmas.
72) And like you have planted this beet seed in the ground I am going to plant my seed in you.
73) When I die I want to be frozen and if they have to freeze me in pieces, so be it. I will wake up stronger than ever because I will have used that time to figure out exactly why I died and what moves I could have used to defend myself better now that know what hold he had me in.
74) Get a knife and cut in all the way around the throat and make sure you have a bucket for the blood, innards, and feathers!
75) I can travel anywhere, except Cuba
76) Can I trust Jim? I don't know. Do I have a choice? - no, frankly I don't. Will I trust Jim? Yes. Should I trust Jim? ...you tell me.
77) You must be PMSing really bad, huh?
78) How would I describe myself? Three words — hardworking, alpha male, jackhammer. Merciless. Insatiable.
79) 2 hours of personal paintball lessons with me is worth easily like 2 grand.
80) There needs to be another plague.
81) You never know when you're going to be attacked by a grizzly bear.
82) I look forward to downsizing; in fact I requested it in my interview.
83) I am 99% sure that is not the real Ben Franklin. I don’t care what Jim says.
1) Remember on Lost when they met The Others?
2) Jim: Hey, Dwight. As sempai, do you ever think there's going to be a day when humans and robots can peacefully coexist?
Dwight: Impossible, in the way they're programmed... You're mocking me.
3) You can't fire me. I don't work for you in the VAN.
4) I was out last night getting drunk with my Laser Tag team…
5) Dwight: I can raise and lower my cholesterol at will.
Pam: Why would you want to raise your cholesterol?
Dwight: So I could lower it.
6) It is blood that moves the wheels of history (much fist pumping and podium pounding included)
7) That is the law, according to the rules.
8) It has to be official, and it has to be urine.
9) Pam: Nice tux Dwight.
Dwight: Thanks. It was my grandfather's. He was buried in it.
10) This is not Kelly Kapoor story-hour! Your ass is on the line, mister! My ass is on the line!
11) Dwight: Can I have a gun?
Security Guard: No, I don't have a gun.
Dwight: Okay, I'll have to bring in my bo-staff.
12) Would I ever leave this company? Look, I'm all about loyalty. In fact, I feel like part of what I'm being paid for here is my loyalty. But if there were somewhere else that valued loyalty more highly, I'm going wherever they value loyalty the most.
13) A thirty-year mortgage at Michael's age essentially means that he's buying a coffin. If I were buying my coffin, I would get one with thicker walls... so you couldn't hear the other dead people.
14) Dwight: Someone forged medical information, and that's a felony.
Jim: OK, Whoa, alright 'cause that's a pretty intense accusation. How do you know that they're fake?
Dwight: Uh, Leprosy? Flesh Eating Bacteria. Hot Dog Fingers. Government Created Killer Nano Robot Infection?
15) In the wild, there is no healthcare. In the wild healthcare is 'Ow, I hurt my leg. I can't run. A lion eats me, and I'm dead.' Well, I'm not dead. I'm the lion. You're dead.
16) Dwight: Uh, knock please. Please knock. This is an office.
Jim: It says 'workspace'.
Dwight: Same thing.
Jim: If it's the same thing then why'd you write 'workspace'?
Dwight: Just knock, please. Okay? A sign of respect for a superior.
Jim: You are not my superior.
Dwight: Oh gee, then why do I have an office?
Jim: I thought it was a workspace.
17) ID badges are long overdue. Security in this office park is a joke. Last year I came to work with my spud gun in a duffel bag. I sat at my desk all day with a rifle that shoots potatoes at 60 pounds per square inch. Can you imagine if I were deranged?
18) Do I feel bad about betraying Jim? Not at all. That's the game: convince him we're in an alliance, get some information, throw him to the wolves. That's politics baby. Get what you can out of someone, then crush them. I think Jim might've learned a very valuable lesson.
19) I hope the war goes on forever and Ryan gets drafted.
20) Question, where can I put my terrarium?
21) I don't believe you. Continue.
22) The Schrutes produce very thirsty babies.
23) My father's name was Dwight Shrute. My grandfather's name was Dwight Shrute. His father name... Dwide Shrude. Amish.
24) So you got the fax? So why didn't you add it to the res…? What do you mean? Of course martial arts training is relevant. Oh, excuse me! I know about a billion Asians that would beg to differ. Uh, yeah, I get a little frustrated when I'm dealing with incompetence. Well, you know what? You can go to hell too. And I will see you there...burning. Fine! Okay, wait. So you'll let me know when you've made a decision?
25) I'm a deer hunter. I go all the time with my dad. One thing about deer, they have very good vision. One thing about me, I am better at hiding than they are...at vision.
26) There wasn't the Long Ranger, and Tonto and Bonto.
27) Do you think this is a good idea Jim; a hide a key rock?
28) Shirts on or off?
29) When someone smiles at me, all I see is a chimpanzee begging for its life.
30) Me and Michael are like Mozart...and Mozart's friend. No, I'm like Butch Cassidy… You mess with Mozart, you're gonna get a bullet in your head. Courtesy of Butch Cassidy.
31) My middle name is NOT fart...
32) Do you wanna die? DO YOU WANNA DIE?
33) Four years of malfeasance unreported, THIS CANNOT STAND!
34) I am faster than 80% of all snakes.
35) I didn't become a Lackawanna county volunteer sheriff's deputy to make friends. And by the way, I haven't.
36) Why should I tip someone for a job I am capable of doing myself? I can deliver food. I can drive a Taxi. I can and do cut my own hair. However I did tip my urologist because I can't pulverize my own kidney stones.
37) One word, two syllables: DEMARCATION.
38) Otherwise, it's just malfeasance, for malfeasances' sake.
39) Oscar visited Mexico when he was 5 to attend his great-grandmother's funeral. What does that mean to a United States Law Enforcement Officer? He's a potential drug mule.
40) tit-for-tit
41) It is amazing how many yeast infections there are in this county. Probably because we live down the river... from that old bread factory.
42) Have you ever -- pooped -- a balloon?
43) And in conclusion, I think Lex Luthor said it best when he said, “Dad, you have no idea what I’m capable of.”
44) I can and will go to New Zealand and walk the trail to Mt. Doom.
45) Question. Do I still have my shoes?
46) Hey everyone, guess what they don't teach in business school: how to work a toaster oven.
47) Do you THINK, or do you KNOW?
48) What is the clitoris?
49) Codename Remax is here. No sign of Lan Jevinson.
50) Dwight: The problem, Jim, is that people who are really suffering from a medical condition won't receive the care they need because someone in this office is coming up with ridiculous stuff. Count Choculitis.
Jim: Sounds Tough.
Dwight: Why did you write that down, Jim? Is it because you know I love Count Chocula?
51) We must deceive them, so as not to hurt them. In that way we honor them.
52) Dwight: Let me give you a piece of advice, I am not afraid to make an example of you.
Jim: That's not advice, what advice sounds like is this, don't bring your purple belt to work, because someone might steal it.
Dwight: Jim, give that back it is not a toy. It is a message, to show everyone in the office that I am capable of physically dominating them.
53) That is defacement of company property, so you better tell me. Kelly, if you tell me, you'll be punished less.
54) Keep your acceptance speeches short. I have wrap-it-up music and I'm not afraid to use it.
55) As a volunteer sheriff's deputy, I've been doing surveillance for years. One time, I suspected an ex-girlfriend of mine of cheating on me, so I tailed her for six nights straight. Turns out, she was. With a couple of guys, actually. So... Mystery solved.
56) Here, let me take you from behind...
57) Where were you? And don't say the bathroom, cause I kicked in all of the stalls.
58) Dwight: This is the most important day of the year. I can't risk anything.
Angela: Fine.
Dwight: What about that meeting, later, to discuss finances?
Angela: Yes. But don't expect any cookie.
Dwight: But what if I'm hungry?
Angela: No cookie.
59) Michael: Dwight, what are you doing here?
Dwight: You said that for when Darryl comes you want me here for protection.
60) The perfect girl for me would be Konikotaka. She was orphaned at age 10 when her parents were assassinated, and she was taken in by a wealthy, but very cruel, businessman. So she secretly practiced aikido for YEARS until she could avenge the death of her parents. She's also a survivor of monster rape.
61) Dwight: Excuse me. I’m sorry, but that’s not all it takes to be a hero.
Mr. Brown: Great. What is a hero to you?
Dwight: A hero kills people. People that wish him harm. A hero is part human and part supernatural. A hero is born out of a childhood trauma, or out of a disaster. And must be avenged.
Mr. Brown: Okay, you’re thinking of a superhero.
Dwight: We all have a hero in our heart.
62) You're going to give me this raise. I deserve this raise. The least you could do is keep my salary consistent with inflation...wakaw...yes! Why are you going to give me this raise? Why? Because I'm awesome, I'm awesome.
63) You may refer to me as Mr. Shrute.
64) The Schrutes consider children very valuable. In the olden days, the women would bear many children. So we would have enough laborers to work the fields. And if it was an especially cold winter, and there weren't enough grains for vegetables, they would get the weakest of the brood. (laughs) No, they didn't eat the children... It never came to that.
65) Don't worry Michael; I'm taking us to shore
66) Women are like wolves. If you want a wolf, you have to trap it. You have to snare it, and then you have to tame it, keep it happy, care for it, feed it. Lovingly, the way an animal deserves to be loved. And my animal deserves a lot of loving.
67) Dwight: It's a terrible idea.
Jim: What is?
Dwight: Them when they're all together. If they stay in there too long they're gonna get on the same cycle. Wreak havoc on our plumbing.
68) You have walked the long lonely walk of loneliness.
69) I know this Russian website you can download songs for a penny but their all in Russian.
70) Aw man! Am I a woman?
71) Yankee Swap is like Machiavelli meets... Christmas.
72) And like you have planted this beet seed in the ground I am going to plant my seed in you.
73) When I die I want to be frozen and if they have to freeze me in pieces, so be it. I will wake up stronger than ever because I will have used that time to figure out exactly why I died and what moves I could have used to defend myself better now that know what hold he had me in.
74) Get a knife and cut in all the way around the throat and make sure you have a bucket for the blood, innards, and feathers!
75) I can travel anywhere, except Cuba
76) Can I trust Jim? I don't know. Do I have a choice? - no, frankly I don't. Will I trust Jim? Yes. Should I trust Jim? ...you tell me.
77) You must be PMSing really bad, huh?
78) How would I describe myself? Three words — hardworking, alpha male, jackhammer. Merciless. Insatiable.
79) 2 hours of personal paintball lessons with me is worth easily like 2 grand.
80) There needs to be another plague.
81) You never know when you're going to be attacked by a grizzly bear.
82) I look forward to downsizing; in fact I requested it in my interview.
83) I am 99% sure that is not the real Ben Franklin. I don’t care what Jim says.
Monday, February 05, 2007
Super Bowl Thoughts
And so the 2006 football season comes to an end. Hats off to the Indianapolis Colts. They finally got over the hump and it couldn’t happen to a nicer group of guys. Plus, I have no animosity towards them they way I did Pittsburgh last year.
Overall it was a good game. I remember after Devin Hester ran the opening kickoff back, I remarked to Mrs. X that Ohio St. ran the opening kick back against Florida and that didn’t help them too much. Chicago stayed in it longer than they should have, mostly due to sloppy play by the Colts offense and the emotional buoy that Chicago had in the opening quarter. Towards the end of the second quarter and into the third quarter, you started to get the sense that Indy was inevitably grinding the Bears down and that victory was assured.
I think the key moment of the game came about halfway through the third quarter. Chicago finally got the ball back after Indy had gone up 19-14. Grossman lays a nice pass into Muhammad, setting up a second and 1 close to midfield. I was expecting a run and was waiting to see Chicago drive hard into the Colts defense, which was starting to soften against the run. Instead, Grossman drops back (I’m guessing for an attempt at the long bomb) and gets sacked for an 11-yard loss. At that moment, the little bit of momentum that Chicago had been building, died. Third down would have to be a long pass (easy for Indy to defend) and Chicago’s exhausted defense would be out on the field again, vainly trying to stop the Colts from bleeding the rest of the third quarter away.
In that one sack, the Bears lost any real opportunity to rely heavily on the run game and Grossman felt the pressure that the Bears had tried so hard to keep off of him. Result, he panics when the Bears fall behind by 8 and squanders good field position, leaving the Bears with a field goal. Panic rising in the 4th quarter (although they were only down by 5), Grossman throws deep jump balls in a desperate attempt to get the Bears back in the game. Both throws were picked off.
In the end, I enjoyed the game, although I think the MVP award should have been split between Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes. They were the true back breakers and I think that if it were a single running back, he would have won the MVP. But since they split very evenly, the voters just gave it to Peyton, which is fine, since no one really cares who the MVP of the game is.
Now to the commercials. Every Super Bowl, the costs go up and the quality of writing goes down. I was deeply disappointed by Fed Ex, who usually has very good commercials. Budweiser did have a decent one at the beginning with the Rock, Paper, Scissors, but the rest of them were not that memorable (although the crab one was a worth a chuckle). The Careerbuilders trilogy was funnier once you saw the concept (I liked the gladiator one best) although the first one was a bit of a headscratcher. The Emerald Nuts one was weird, but funny as well. The Blockbuster Mouse commercial was amusing as well, although it did require the recycling of the rabbit and guinea pig from previous commercials.
Rating my top three, I would go as follows:
1) Careerbuilder.com Gladiator Promotion Pit (second spot)
2) Budweiser Rock/Paper/Scissors
3) Emerald Nuts Robert Goulet attacks
Overall it was a good game. I remember after Devin Hester ran the opening kickoff back, I remarked to Mrs. X that Ohio St. ran the opening kick back against Florida and that didn’t help them too much. Chicago stayed in it longer than they should have, mostly due to sloppy play by the Colts offense and the emotional buoy that Chicago had in the opening quarter. Towards the end of the second quarter and into the third quarter, you started to get the sense that Indy was inevitably grinding the Bears down and that victory was assured.
I think the key moment of the game came about halfway through the third quarter. Chicago finally got the ball back after Indy had gone up 19-14. Grossman lays a nice pass into Muhammad, setting up a second and 1 close to midfield. I was expecting a run and was waiting to see Chicago drive hard into the Colts defense, which was starting to soften against the run. Instead, Grossman drops back (I’m guessing for an attempt at the long bomb) and gets sacked for an 11-yard loss. At that moment, the little bit of momentum that Chicago had been building, died. Third down would have to be a long pass (easy for Indy to defend) and Chicago’s exhausted defense would be out on the field again, vainly trying to stop the Colts from bleeding the rest of the third quarter away.
In that one sack, the Bears lost any real opportunity to rely heavily on the run game and Grossman felt the pressure that the Bears had tried so hard to keep off of him. Result, he panics when the Bears fall behind by 8 and squanders good field position, leaving the Bears with a field goal. Panic rising in the 4th quarter (although they were only down by 5), Grossman throws deep jump balls in a desperate attempt to get the Bears back in the game. Both throws were picked off.
In the end, I enjoyed the game, although I think the MVP award should have been split between Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes. They were the true back breakers and I think that if it were a single running back, he would have won the MVP. But since they split very evenly, the voters just gave it to Peyton, which is fine, since no one really cares who the MVP of the game is.
Now to the commercials. Every Super Bowl, the costs go up and the quality of writing goes down. I was deeply disappointed by Fed Ex, who usually has very good commercials. Budweiser did have a decent one at the beginning with the Rock, Paper, Scissors, but the rest of them were not that memorable (although the crab one was a worth a chuckle). The Careerbuilders trilogy was funnier once you saw the concept (I liked the gladiator one best) although the first one was a bit of a headscratcher. The Emerald Nuts one was weird, but funny as well. The Blockbuster Mouse commercial was amusing as well, although it did require the recycling of the rabbit and guinea pig from previous commercials.
Rating my top three, I would go as follows:
1) Careerbuilder.com Gladiator Promotion Pit (second spot)
2) Budweiser Rock/Paper/Scissors
3) Emerald Nuts Robert Goulet attacks
Movie Quiz
I stole this from Mrs. X. Its a recent movie quiz and if you've seen 85 or more of the 200+ movies listed, you have no life. I think we already knew that:
( ) Rocky Horror Picture Show
(x) Grease
(x) Pirates of the Caribbean
( ) Pirates of the Caribbean 2: Dead Man's Chest
( ) Boondock Saints
(x) Fight Club
( ) Starsky and Hutch
(x) Neverending Story
(x) Blazing Saddles
(x) Airplane
Total: 6
(x) The Princess Bride
(x) AnchorMan
( ) Napoleon Dynamite
(x) Labyrinth
( ) Saw
( ) Saw II
( ) Saw III
( ) White Oleander
( ) Anger Management
(x) 50 First Dates
( ) The Princess Diaries
( ) The Princess Diaries 2: Royal Engagement
Total so far: 10
(x) Scream
(x) Scream 2
(x) Scream 3
(x) Scary Movie
( ) Scary Movie 2
( ) Scary Movie 3
( ) Scary Movie 4
(x) American Pie
( ) American Pie 2
( ) American Wedding
( ) American Pie Band Camp
Total so far: 15
(x) Harry Potter 1
(x) Harry Potter 2
(x) Harry Potter 3
(x) Harry Potter 4
( ) Resident Evil 1
( ) Resident Evil 2
(x) The Wedding Singer
( ) Little Black Book
(x) The Village
( ) Lilo & Stitch
Total so far: 21
(x) Finding Nemo
( ) Finding Neverland
(x) Signs
( ) The Grinch
( ) Texas Chainsaw Massacre
( ) Texas Chainsaw Massacre: The Beginning
( ) White Chicks
( ) Butterfly Effect
(x) 13 Going on 30
( ) I, Robot
( ) Robots
Total so far: 24
( ) Dodgeball: A True Underdog Story
( ) Universal Soldier
( ) Lemony Snicket: A Series Of Unfortunate Events
( ) Along Came Polly
(x) Deep Impact
( ) KingPin
( ) Never Been Kissed
( ) Meet The Parents
( ) Meet the Fockers
( ) Eight Crazy Nights
( ) Joe Dirt
( ) KING KONG (remake)
Total so far: 25
( ) A Cinderella Story
( ) The Terminal
( ) The Lizzie McGuire Movie
( ) Passport to Paris
(x) Dumb & Dumber
( ) Dumber & Dumberer
( ) Final Destination
( ) Final Destination 2
( ) Final Destination 3
(x) Halloween
( ) The Ring
( ) The Ring 2
( ) Surviving X-MAS
( ) Flubber
Total so far: 27
( ) Harold & Kumar Go To White Castle
( ) Practical Magic
(x) Chicago
( ) Ghost Ship
( ) From Hell
( ) Hellboy
( ) Secret Window
( ) I Am Sam
( ) The Whole Nine Yards
( ) The Whole Ten Yards
Total so far: 28
( ) The Day After Tomorrow
( ) Child's Play
( ) Seed of Chucky
( ) Bride of Chucky
( ) Ten Things I Hate About You
( ) Just Married
( ) Gothika
(x) Nightmare on Elm Street
(x) Sixteen Candles
( ) Remember the Titans
( ) Coach Carter
( ) The Grudge
( ) The Grudge 2
( ) The Mask
( ) Son Of The Mask
Total so far: 30
( ) Bad Boys
( ) Bad Boys 2
( ) Joy Ride
( ) Lucky Number Sleven
(x) Ocean's Eleven
(x) Ocean's Twelve
( ) Bourne Identity
( ) Bourne Supremecy
( ) Lone Star
( ) Bedazzled
(x) Predator I
( ) Predator II
( ) The Fog
(x) Ice Age
( ) Ice Age 2: The Meltdown
( ) Curious George
Total so far: 34
(x) Independence Day
(x) Cujo
( ) A Bronx Tale
( ) Darkness Falls
( ) Christine
(x) ET
( ) Children of the Corn
( ) My Bosses Daughter
( ) Maid in Manhattan
(x) War of the Worlds
(x) Rush Hour
( ) Rush Hour 2
Total so far: 39
( ) Best Bet
( ) How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days
(x) She's All That
( ) Calendar Girls
( ) Sideways
(x) Mars Attacks
( ) Event Horizon
( ) Ever After
(x) Wizard of Oz
(x) Forrest Gump
( ) Big Trouble in Little China
(x) The Terminator
(x) The Terminator 2
(x) The Terminator 3
Total so far: 46
(x) X-Men
(x) X2
( ) X-3
(x) Spider-Man
(x) Spider-Man 2
( ) Sky High
( ) Jeepers Creepers
( ) Jeepers Creepers 2
(x) Catch Me If You Can
(x) The Little Mermaid
( ) Freaky Friday (remake)
( ) Reign of Fire
( ) The Skulls
(x) Cruel Intentions
( ) Cruel Intentions 2
( ) The Hot Chick
(x) Shrek
(x) Shrek 2
Total so far: 55
( ) Swimfan
( ) Miracle on 34th street (remake)
( ) Old School
( ) The Notebook
( ) K-Pax
( ) Krippendorf's Tribe
( ) A Walk to Remember
( ) The Glass House
( ) Boogeyman
(x) The 40-year-old-virgin
Total so far: 56
(x) Lord of the Rings Fellowship of the Ring
(x) Lord of the Rings The Two Towers
(x) Lord of the Rings Return Of the King
(x)Indiana Jones and the Raiders of the Lost Ark
(x)Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom
(x)Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade
Total so far: 62
( ) Baseketball
( ) Hostel
( ) Waiting for Guffman
( ) House of 1000 Corpses
( ) Devils Rejects
( ) Elf
(x) Highlander
( ) Mothman Prophecies
( ) American History X
( ) Three
Total so Far: 63
(x) Mean Girls
( ) Kung Fu Hustle
( ) Shaolin Soccer
( ) Night Watch
(x) Monsters Inc.
(x) Titanic
(x) Monty Python and the Holy Grail
( ) Shaun Of the Dead
( ) Willard
Total so far: 67
(x) Sleepy Hollow
( ) Club Dread
( ) Hulk
( ) Dawn Of the Dead
(x) Hook
(x) Chronicle Of Narnia The Lion the Witch and the Wardrobe
( ) 28 days later
( ) Orgazmo
( ) Drumline
( ) Hocus Pocus
Total so far: 70
(x) Kill Bill vol 1
(x) Kill Bill vol 2
( ) Mortal Kombat
( ) Wolf Creek
( ) Kingdom of Heaven
( ) the Hills Have Eyes
( ) Uptown Girls
( ) The Last House on the Left
( ) Re-Animator
(x) Army of Darkness
Total so far: 73
(x) Star Wars Ep. I The Phantom Menace
(x) Star Wars Ep. II Attack of the Clones
(x) Star Wars Ep. III Revenge of the Sith
(x) Star Wars Ep. IV A New Hope
(x) Star Wars Ep. V The Empire Strikes Back
(x) Star Wars Ep. VI Return of the Jedi
(x) Ewoks Caravan Of Courage
(x) Ewoks The Battle For Endor
Total so far: 81
(x) The Matrix
(x) The Matrix Reloaded
(x) The Matrix Revolutions
( ) Snakes on A Plane
( ) Evil Dead
(x) Evil Dead 2
( ) Team America: World Police
(x) Red Dragon
(x) Silence of the Lambs
(x) Hannibal
Final Total: 88 – I have no life.
I would try to defend myself by arguing that many of these were seen when I was dating "She who must not be named" or even earlier, but the fact that I can say that I've seen part of many of other movies on this list leaves little room for argument.
( ) Rocky Horror Picture Show
(x) Grease
(x) Pirates of the Caribbean
( ) Pirates of the Caribbean 2: Dead Man's Chest
( ) Boondock Saints
(x) Fight Club
( ) Starsky and Hutch
(x) Neverending Story
(x) Blazing Saddles
(x) Airplane
Total: 6
(x) The Princess Bride
(x) AnchorMan
( ) Napoleon Dynamite
(x) Labyrinth
( ) Saw
( ) Saw II
( ) Saw III
( ) White Oleander
( ) Anger Management
(x) 50 First Dates
( ) The Princess Diaries
( ) The Princess Diaries 2: Royal Engagement
Total so far: 10
(x) Scream
(x) Scream 2
(x) Scream 3
(x) Scary Movie
( ) Scary Movie 2
( ) Scary Movie 3
( ) Scary Movie 4
(x) American Pie
( ) American Pie 2
( ) American Wedding
( ) American Pie Band Camp
Total so far: 15
(x) Harry Potter 1
(x) Harry Potter 2
(x) Harry Potter 3
(x) Harry Potter 4
( ) Resident Evil 1
( ) Resident Evil 2
(x) The Wedding Singer
( ) Little Black Book
(x) The Village
( ) Lilo & Stitch
Total so far: 21
(x) Finding Nemo
( ) Finding Neverland
(x) Signs
( ) The Grinch
( ) Texas Chainsaw Massacre
( ) Texas Chainsaw Massacre: The Beginning
( ) White Chicks
( ) Butterfly Effect
(x) 13 Going on 30
( ) I, Robot
( ) Robots
Total so far: 24
( ) Dodgeball: A True Underdog Story
( ) Universal Soldier
( ) Lemony Snicket: A Series Of Unfortunate Events
( ) Along Came Polly
(x) Deep Impact
( ) KingPin
( ) Never Been Kissed
( ) Meet The Parents
( ) Meet the Fockers
( ) Eight Crazy Nights
( ) Joe Dirt
( ) KING KONG (remake)
Total so far: 25
( ) A Cinderella Story
( ) The Terminal
( ) The Lizzie McGuire Movie
( ) Passport to Paris
(x) Dumb & Dumber
( ) Dumber & Dumberer
( ) Final Destination
( ) Final Destination 2
( ) Final Destination 3
(x) Halloween
( ) The Ring
( ) The Ring 2
( ) Surviving X-MAS
( ) Flubber
Total so far: 27
( ) Harold & Kumar Go To White Castle
( ) Practical Magic
(x) Chicago
( ) Ghost Ship
( ) From Hell
( ) Hellboy
( ) Secret Window
( ) I Am Sam
( ) The Whole Nine Yards
( ) The Whole Ten Yards
Total so far: 28
( ) The Day After Tomorrow
( ) Child's Play
( ) Seed of Chucky
( ) Bride of Chucky
( ) Ten Things I Hate About You
( ) Just Married
( ) Gothika
(x) Nightmare on Elm Street
(x) Sixteen Candles
( ) Remember the Titans
( ) Coach Carter
( ) The Grudge
( ) The Grudge 2
( ) The Mask
( ) Son Of The Mask
Total so far: 30
( ) Bad Boys
( ) Bad Boys 2
( ) Joy Ride
( ) Lucky Number Sleven
(x) Ocean's Eleven
(x) Ocean's Twelve
( ) Bourne Identity
( ) Bourne Supremecy
( ) Lone Star
( ) Bedazzled
(x) Predator I
( ) Predator II
( ) The Fog
(x) Ice Age
( ) Ice Age 2: The Meltdown
( ) Curious George
Total so far: 34
(x) Independence Day
(x) Cujo
( ) A Bronx Tale
( ) Darkness Falls
( ) Christine
(x) ET
( ) Children of the Corn
( ) My Bosses Daughter
( ) Maid in Manhattan
(x) War of the Worlds
(x) Rush Hour
( ) Rush Hour 2
Total so far: 39
( ) Best Bet
( ) How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days
(x) She's All That
( ) Calendar Girls
( ) Sideways
(x) Mars Attacks
( ) Event Horizon
( ) Ever After
(x) Wizard of Oz
(x) Forrest Gump
( ) Big Trouble in Little China
(x) The Terminator
(x) The Terminator 2
(x) The Terminator 3
Total so far: 46
(x) X-Men
(x) X2
( ) X-3
(x) Spider-Man
(x) Spider-Man 2
( ) Sky High
( ) Jeepers Creepers
( ) Jeepers Creepers 2
(x) Catch Me If You Can
(x) The Little Mermaid
( ) Freaky Friday (remake)
( ) Reign of Fire
( ) The Skulls
(x) Cruel Intentions
( ) Cruel Intentions 2
( ) The Hot Chick
(x) Shrek
(x) Shrek 2
Total so far: 55
( ) Swimfan
( ) Miracle on 34th street (remake)
( ) Old School
( ) The Notebook
( ) K-Pax
( ) Krippendorf's Tribe
( ) A Walk to Remember
( ) The Glass House
( ) Boogeyman
(x) The 40-year-old-virgin
Total so far: 56
(x) Lord of the Rings Fellowship of the Ring
(x) Lord of the Rings The Two Towers
(x) Lord of the Rings Return Of the King
(x)Indiana Jones and the Raiders of the Lost Ark
(x)Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom
(x)Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade
Total so far: 62
( ) Baseketball
( ) Hostel
( ) Waiting for Guffman
( ) House of 1000 Corpses
( ) Devils Rejects
( ) Elf
(x) Highlander
( ) Mothman Prophecies
( ) American History X
( ) Three
Total so Far: 63
(x) Mean Girls
( ) Kung Fu Hustle
( ) Shaolin Soccer
( ) Night Watch
(x) Monsters Inc.
(x) Titanic
(x) Monty Python and the Holy Grail
( ) Shaun Of the Dead
( ) Willard
Total so far: 67
(x) Sleepy Hollow
( ) Club Dread
( ) Hulk
( ) Dawn Of the Dead
(x) Hook
(x) Chronicle Of Narnia The Lion the Witch and the Wardrobe
( ) 28 days later
( ) Orgazmo
( ) Drumline
( ) Hocus Pocus
Total so far: 70
(x) Kill Bill vol 1
(x) Kill Bill vol 2
( ) Mortal Kombat
( ) Wolf Creek
( ) Kingdom of Heaven
( ) the Hills Have Eyes
( ) Uptown Girls
( ) The Last House on the Left
( ) Re-Animator
(x) Army of Darkness
Total so far: 73
(x) Star Wars Ep. I The Phantom Menace
(x) Star Wars Ep. II Attack of the Clones
(x) Star Wars Ep. III Revenge of the Sith
(x) Star Wars Ep. IV A New Hope
(x) Star Wars Ep. V The Empire Strikes Back
(x) Star Wars Ep. VI Return of the Jedi
(x) Ewoks Caravan Of Courage
(x) Ewoks The Battle For Endor
Total so far: 81
(x) The Matrix
(x) The Matrix Reloaded
(x) The Matrix Revolutions
( ) Snakes on A Plane
( ) Evil Dead
(x) Evil Dead 2
( ) Team America: World Police
(x) Red Dragon
(x) Silence of the Lambs
(x) Hannibal
Final Total: 88 – I have no life.
I would try to defend myself by arguing that many of these were seen when I was dating "She who must not be named" or even earlier, but the fact that I can say that I've seen part of many of other movies on this list leaves little room for argument.
Wednesday, January 24, 2007
Its the End of the World as We Know It and I Feel Fine
Eschatology is the study of end-times prophecy and will relate to any religion that believes that the world will end some day (although I only study Christian eschatology). Over the next two or three years, there is going to be a lot of buzzing among the various End Times proponents (Hal Lindsay, Tim LeHay, J.R. Church, etc.).
Most of this stems out of the Six Day War in 1967. After Israel captured the Temple Mount in 1967, many prominent theologians declared that the “time of the Gentiles” was over. Some had already been talking ever since Israel was refounded as a nation in 1948, it was the capture of Jerusalem that got the majority of people’s attention. Hal Lindsay published Late Great Planet Earth and boldly predicted that the church would be raptured by 1988 (40 years since the founding of Israel). Of course, 1988 came and went and no one disappeared. Several other dates were offered based on other calculations: 1994, 1997, and 2000. Meanwhile, people are still waiting and still convincing themselves that they can date set the start of the End Times.
2007 is notable, as it will mark the 40th anniversary since the capture of the Temple Mount. Back in 1967, Israel completely controlled the Temple Mount for all of one day before Moshe Dayan gave governing control of the Mount back to Jordan. Many theologians (and Orthodox Jews) believe this represents a rejection of God’s protection in Israel, much as when the Israelite spies convinced the Israelites not to journey into Canaan after the Exodus. Israel’s punishment then was to wander in the desert for 40 years. Israel’s modern punishment has been to live in the midst of her enemies and steadily give back the land that is rightfully hers. However, May 16th is the 40th anniversary of the capture of Jerusalem (by the Jewish calendar) and there is a feeling that just as Joshua was allowed to begin conquest once the time of punishment was over, so will Israel begin to throw off the chains that the Arabs and the rest of the world have placed on her.
All of this might be simply an academic question if 2007 didn’t also include one other notable event. Throughout her history, Israel has been required to observe a Sabbatical Year (or a year of rest) every seven years. In these years, there is supposed to be no tilling of the soil, debts are to be forgiven and other things that call the people back to God. Thus, a group of seven years that ends with a Sabbatical Year is viewed as a cycle that Israel must complete.
A reference to this cycle is found in the prophecies of Daniel 9:20-27. In this prophecy, Daniel is told that 69 of these 7-year cycles are to be completed before the Messiah will be cut off from his people. After this, one additional cycle is given in which a terrible man will come and defile the Temple before Israel can be saved by the Messiah. Christians believe that Jesus is the Messiah and that after his death and resurrection in AD 30, there has existed a gap in the Jewish cycle in which the Church Age exists. The belief among many theologians is that once the Church is raptured, the final cycle will begin with the Antichrist signing some sort of pact with Israel. But, since the prophecy seems to discuss events in light of the 7-year cycle of years that Israel observes, some theologians think that the treaty that the Antichrist signs with Israel will occur around Rosh Hashanah of the first year of a 7-year cycle of years. This would in turn imply that the rapture would occur in a Sabbatical year.
Now we come back to the importance of 2007. The actual count of Sabbatical years has been lost to history, although two different men looked at historical documents and reconstructed when they though the various Sabbatical years fell. One calculation (and the one used by the Israeli government) has Rosh Hashanah of 2007 (Sept. 13) start the Sabbatical Year of the current cycle. The other method of calculation (which I think meshes better historically) would have the Sabbatical Year start on Rosh Hashanah 2008.
Whichever cycle is correct, Eschatologists and theologians are practically giddy with excitement over the possible turn of events starting around May of this year and ending in September of 2009.
So what do I think? I concede that this does look like an interesting set up and that there are a lot of signs pointing towards the End of Days. However, I also note that my own studies have suggested that the start of the 7th millennium is still a few years away (unlike many people who rely on Bishop Usher’s calculations) and I’m also cautious of any attempt to calculate the start of the End of Days. We are told that the Day of the Lord will come as a thief in the night and that of the day, no one knows its beginning save the Father Himself. So, while I will keep a curious eye out at the newspapers, I would not advise anyone to sell their house and go sit on a hill anytime soon.
Most of this stems out of the Six Day War in 1967. After Israel captured the Temple Mount in 1967, many prominent theologians declared that the “time of the Gentiles” was over. Some had already been talking ever since Israel was refounded as a nation in 1948, it was the capture of Jerusalem that got the majority of people’s attention. Hal Lindsay published Late Great Planet Earth and boldly predicted that the church would be raptured by 1988 (40 years since the founding of Israel). Of course, 1988 came and went and no one disappeared. Several other dates were offered based on other calculations: 1994, 1997, and 2000. Meanwhile, people are still waiting and still convincing themselves that they can date set the start of the End Times.
2007 is notable, as it will mark the 40th anniversary since the capture of the Temple Mount. Back in 1967, Israel completely controlled the Temple Mount for all of one day before Moshe Dayan gave governing control of the Mount back to Jordan. Many theologians (and Orthodox Jews) believe this represents a rejection of God’s protection in Israel, much as when the Israelite spies convinced the Israelites not to journey into Canaan after the Exodus. Israel’s punishment then was to wander in the desert for 40 years. Israel’s modern punishment has been to live in the midst of her enemies and steadily give back the land that is rightfully hers. However, May 16th is the 40th anniversary of the capture of Jerusalem (by the Jewish calendar) and there is a feeling that just as Joshua was allowed to begin conquest once the time of punishment was over, so will Israel begin to throw off the chains that the Arabs and the rest of the world have placed on her.
All of this might be simply an academic question if 2007 didn’t also include one other notable event. Throughout her history, Israel has been required to observe a Sabbatical Year (or a year of rest) every seven years. In these years, there is supposed to be no tilling of the soil, debts are to be forgiven and other things that call the people back to God. Thus, a group of seven years that ends with a Sabbatical Year is viewed as a cycle that Israel must complete.
A reference to this cycle is found in the prophecies of Daniel 9:20-27. In this prophecy, Daniel is told that 69 of these 7-year cycles are to be completed before the Messiah will be cut off from his people. After this, one additional cycle is given in which a terrible man will come and defile the Temple before Israel can be saved by the Messiah. Christians believe that Jesus is the Messiah and that after his death and resurrection in AD 30, there has existed a gap in the Jewish cycle in which the Church Age exists. The belief among many theologians is that once the Church is raptured, the final cycle will begin with the Antichrist signing some sort of pact with Israel. But, since the prophecy seems to discuss events in light of the 7-year cycle of years that Israel observes, some theologians think that the treaty that the Antichrist signs with Israel will occur around Rosh Hashanah of the first year of a 7-year cycle of years. This would in turn imply that the rapture would occur in a Sabbatical year.
Now we come back to the importance of 2007. The actual count of Sabbatical years has been lost to history, although two different men looked at historical documents and reconstructed when they though the various Sabbatical years fell. One calculation (and the one used by the Israeli government) has Rosh Hashanah of 2007 (Sept. 13) start the Sabbatical Year of the current cycle. The other method of calculation (which I think meshes better historically) would have the Sabbatical Year start on Rosh Hashanah 2008.
Whichever cycle is correct, Eschatologists and theologians are practically giddy with excitement over the possible turn of events starting around May of this year and ending in September of 2009.
So what do I think? I concede that this does look like an interesting set up and that there are a lot of signs pointing towards the End of Days. However, I also note that my own studies have suggested that the start of the 7th millennium is still a few years away (unlike many people who rely on Bishop Usher’s calculations) and I’m also cautious of any attempt to calculate the start of the End of Days. We are told that the Day of the Lord will come as a thief in the night and that of the day, no one knows its beginning save the Father Himself. So, while I will keep a curious eye out at the newspapers, I would not advise anyone to sell their house and go sit on a hill anytime soon.
Monday, January 22, 2007
One Game Left
Well, I was wrong in both my predictions for this week. I was firmly convinced that New Orleans would take advantage of a lax Bears defense and I thought that the beast that was the New England Patriots would be too much for the Colts. Obviously, I don’t know what I’m talking about, but that’s okay.
I didn’t pay as close attention to the NFC Championship game. I find sloppy games rather boring and the New Orleans ineptness was particularly difficult to watch. Then, the Bears failing to take advantage of it were also a little disappointing. Realistically, the game should have been 24-7 at the half, with the Bears just grinding down the Saints for the rest of the game. If the Bears punter had not done such a good job of pinning the Saints to such poor field position, New Orleans could very easily have come back and won the game. But the Bears finally wore out the Saints defense and poured it on at the end. Congrats to the Bears for making the Super Bowl. Hopefully their defense plays as well there as it did yesterday.
The late game was very nerve racking for me. In the NFC game I really didn’t care who won. On the AFC side, I was really hoping the Colts would win just so we wouldn’t have to hear any more slurping of the Brady-Belichick duo and so we wouldn’t hear any more of the “Peyton can’t win the big one” talk. At first, I was despairing that my prediction would be right, especially after Manning tossed that interception for a score and the Pats were up 21-3. Mrs. X and I switched it over to watch the Simpsons rerun after that. But the Colts drove the field for a field goal right at halftime and having noticed that and knowing that the Colts would get the ball to start the second half, I decided to give the game another chance. I was glad I did and I started getting my hopes up once the Colts managed to tie it up. I was sure the Pats were going to find a way to pull off another last minute miracle, just as they had done so many times before. In fact, after the Colts tied the game at 31, I commented to Mrs. X that the Colts had left too much time on the clock and that the Patriot would go ahead with little left on the clock. I was partially right. The Pats committed a procedure penalty that forced them to kick the go-ahead field goal with more time left on the clock than they wanted (just over 2 minutes). I actually started to believe the Colts were going to win after they added the extra point to force the Pats to get a touchdown. That meant Brady had to be more aggressive and could play into the Colts strength of a secondary. I actually thought the Pats would drive near the 20 or 30 and have Brady throw into the endzone as the game clock expired to see who would win. But, instead a pick was thrown and the game ended.
Early on, I’m leaning towards the Colts in the Super Bowl. I’ve maintained that the AFC was better than the NFC and I think that Rex Grossman will make a couple of bad throws against the Indy defense that will allow the Colts to dictate tempo. Of course, I could be completely off and the Bears will dominate the game. We shall see in 13 days.
I didn’t pay as close attention to the NFC Championship game. I find sloppy games rather boring and the New Orleans ineptness was particularly difficult to watch. Then, the Bears failing to take advantage of it were also a little disappointing. Realistically, the game should have been 24-7 at the half, with the Bears just grinding down the Saints for the rest of the game. If the Bears punter had not done such a good job of pinning the Saints to such poor field position, New Orleans could very easily have come back and won the game. But the Bears finally wore out the Saints defense and poured it on at the end. Congrats to the Bears for making the Super Bowl. Hopefully their defense plays as well there as it did yesterday.
The late game was very nerve racking for me. In the NFC game I really didn’t care who won. On the AFC side, I was really hoping the Colts would win just so we wouldn’t have to hear any more slurping of the Brady-Belichick duo and so we wouldn’t hear any more of the “Peyton can’t win the big one” talk. At first, I was despairing that my prediction would be right, especially after Manning tossed that interception for a score and the Pats were up 21-3. Mrs. X and I switched it over to watch the Simpsons rerun after that. But the Colts drove the field for a field goal right at halftime and having noticed that and knowing that the Colts would get the ball to start the second half, I decided to give the game another chance. I was glad I did and I started getting my hopes up once the Colts managed to tie it up. I was sure the Pats were going to find a way to pull off another last minute miracle, just as they had done so many times before. In fact, after the Colts tied the game at 31, I commented to Mrs. X that the Colts had left too much time on the clock and that the Patriot would go ahead with little left on the clock. I was partially right. The Pats committed a procedure penalty that forced them to kick the go-ahead field goal with more time left on the clock than they wanted (just over 2 minutes). I actually started to believe the Colts were going to win after they added the extra point to force the Pats to get a touchdown. That meant Brady had to be more aggressive and could play into the Colts strength of a secondary. I actually thought the Pats would drive near the 20 or 30 and have Brady throw into the endzone as the game clock expired to see who would win. But, instead a pick was thrown and the game ended.
Early on, I’m leaning towards the Colts in the Super Bowl. I’ve maintained that the AFC was better than the NFC and I think that Rex Grossman will make a couple of bad throws against the Indy defense that will allow the Colts to dictate tempo. Of course, I could be completely off and the Bears will dominate the game. We shall see in 13 days.
Monday, January 15, 2007
Some New, Some Old
Before I get started with this weekend's games, I just want to say that I did watch some of the Florida beat down of Ohio St. and had intended to say something, but I got swept up in things and didn't get a chance last week. All I can say now is that it seems that the Ohio St. fans were not the only ones who were looking for a coronation rather than a contest. Kudos to Florida, although they should send a very, very large fruit basket to UCLA for allowing them to even be in the game.
Now to the NFL. I watched a little bit of all four games, although I didn't get to watch any game in its intirety due to various household tasks that need to be done (stupid toilet). I had a feeling that New England could win their game with San Diego, but I was surprised as to how shaky NE actually looked during the game. They didn't really win it as much as San Diego handed it to them. Several very sloppy and unpoised moments gift wrapped that game to a much more mentally strong New England team.
I was actually more surprised that Indianapolis secured a win against Baltimore. Baltimore's offense has not been very good this past year, but I would have expected more than 6 points out of it, especially against the Indy defense that still has quite a few holes in it. Still, I'm not going to complain, especially as Baltimore did nothing but talk about how they were going to all but kill members of the Colts. The Ravens (and their fans) are a rather thuggish group and I like to see bullies get slapped around a bit.
On the NFC side, the Bears looked quite mortal in their win against Seattle. Seattle made a lot of mistakes and the Bears never capitalized. The Saints will be a lot more hungry and I think that even though New Orleans gives up the big play a lot, they will still be quite a match for the Bears. If the weather turns cold and windy, that might favor the Bears, but Shaun Alexander put up a good game and I see no reason why the Saints dual threat running game won't hammer the Bears just as hard. I can't make too many comments on the Saints as I only saw the last 5 minutes of the game. Mrs. X and I were busy laughing at the hilarity that is The Office: Season 2.
I think its fairly obvious that I think the Saints will win the NFC championship unless the Bears defense rights itself in a hurry. Things are not so clear on the AFC side. In the playoffs, New England has owned Indianapolis and I don't think that having the game played in Indy will change that. On the other hand, both teams have looked very mortal and with both teams knowing each other as well as they do, one gets the feeling that its Indianapolis' turn. I would like to see this as I am already quite sick of the "will Peyton Manning ever win a Super Bowl?" talk. This season has been set up to allow Peyton Manning and the Colts exercise their demons and get over the hump. So, my head tells me to pick New England and my heart tells me to pick Indianpolis. I'll have to get back to you on who I'm going to take in the game.
Now to the NFL. I watched a little bit of all four games, although I didn't get to watch any game in its intirety due to various household tasks that need to be done (stupid toilet). I had a feeling that New England could win their game with San Diego, but I was surprised as to how shaky NE actually looked during the game. They didn't really win it as much as San Diego handed it to them. Several very sloppy and unpoised moments gift wrapped that game to a much more mentally strong New England team.
I was actually more surprised that Indianapolis secured a win against Baltimore. Baltimore's offense has not been very good this past year, but I would have expected more than 6 points out of it, especially against the Indy defense that still has quite a few holes in it. Still, I'm not going to complain, especially as Baltimore did nothing but talk about how they were going to all but kill members of the Colts. The Ravens (and their fans) are a rather thuggish group and I like to see bullies get slapped around a bit.
On the NFC side, the Bears looked quite mortal in their win against Seattle. Seattle made a lot of mistakes and the Bears never capitalized. The Saints will be a lot more hungry and I think that even though New Orleans gives up the big play a lot, they will still be quite a match for the Bears. If the weather turns cold and windy, that might favor the Bears, but Shaun Alexander put up a good game and I see no reason why the Saints dual threat running game won't hammer the Bears just as hard. I can't make too many comments on the Saints as I only saw the last 5 minutes of the game. Mrs. X and I were busy laughing at the hilarity that is The Office: Season 2.
I think its fairly obvious that I think the Saints will win the NFC championship unless the Bears defense rights itself in a hurry. Things are not so clear on the AFC side. In the playoffs, New England has owned Indianapolis and I don't think that having the game played in Indy will change that. On the other hand, both teams have looked very mortal and with both teams knowing each other as well as they do, one gets the feeling that its Indianapolis' turn. I would like to see this as I am already quite sick of the "will Peyton Manning ever win a Super Bowl?" talk. This season has been set up to allow Peyton Manning and the Colts exercise their demons and get over the hump. So, my head tells me to pick New England and my heart tells me to pick Indianpolis. I'll have to get back to you on who I'm going to take in the game.
Monday, January 08, 2007
Year in Review
Here’s a fun little game. Take the first line of the first post for every month last year and see if you can spot a trend in what you talk about on your blog. Mrs. X did this and I thought we’d see what I talk about:
January:
“Yesterday, at church, the pastor gave a little sermon about reading and studying the Bible.”
(A post about some of my theological research).
February:
“To quote Bart Simpson, ‘I didn’t think it was possible, but this both sucks and blows.’”
(Steelers win Superbowl)
March:
“So the Oscars were on last night.”
(I do a little entertainment now and then).
April:
“The West Wing has been referred to as ‘if Hollywood had run the Clinton White House.’”
(Entertainment review mixed with some politics).
May:
“Well, its election time here in Ohio.”
(More politics).
June:
“I recently read a post on Real Clear Politics that accused RFK Jr. of reviving the Democratic shriek of how Ohio was stolen in 2004 to discredit Ken Blackwell, who is now running for Governor.”
(Even more politics).
July:
“Two down, two to go.”
(Israeli-Lebanon/Gaza War post)
August:
“Several months ago, if you had said that Joe Lieberman was going to lose the Democratic nomination for Senate, most people would have laughed at you.”
(I’m noticing a trend here).
September:
“I apologize for being away for over a month.”
(The meat of this post was about Pope Benedict’s comments about Muslims)
October:
“Well, things went to hell for the Bengals this weekend.”
(Finally getting into football posts again).
November:
“Well, it becomes official sometime today that the Democrats have officially won both the House and Senate.”
(Politics in November. Shocking!)
December:
“So a few things happened on the way to the Ohio St.-USC game.”
(More football).
So I think we can all see that I’m something of a political junkie (at least during election years), but I enjoy mixing a little sports and eschatology in as well. If you like those, please stick around. If not, I’m sure there are more nice blogs out there for you.
January:
“Yesterday, at church, the pastor gave a little sermon about reading and studying the Bible.”
(A post about some of my theological research).
February:
“To quote Bart Simpson, ‘I didn’t think it was possible, but this both sucks and blows.’”
(Steelers win Superbowl)
March:
“So the Oscars were on last night.”
(I do a little entertainment now and then).
April:
“The West Wing has been referred to as ‘if Hollywood had run the Clinton White House.’”
(Entertainment review mixed with some politics).
May:
“Well, its election time here in Ohio.”
(More politics).
June:
“I recently read a post on Real Clear Politics that accused RFK Jr. of reviving the Democratic shriek of how Ohio was stolen in 2004 to discredit Ken Blackwell, who is now running for Governor.”
(Even more politics).
July:
“Two down, two to go.”
(Israeli-Lebanon/Gaza War post)
August:
“Several months ago, if you had said that Joe Lieberman was going to lose the Democratic nomination for Senate, most people would have laughed at you.”
(I’m noticing a trend here).
September:
“I apologize for being away for over a month.”
(The meat of this post was about Pope Benedict’s comments about Muslims)
October:
“Well, things went to hell for the Bengals this weekend.”
(Finally getting into football posts again).
November:
“Well, it becomes official sometime today that the Democrats have officially won both the House and Senate.”
(Politics in November. Shocking!)
December:
“So a few things happened on the way to the Ohio St.-USC game.”
(More football).
So I think we can all see that I’m something of a political junkie (at least during election years), but I enjoy mixing a little sports and eschatology in as well. If you like those, please stick around. If not, I’m sure there are more nice blogs out there for you.
NFL Playoffs: Round Two
Happy New Year ( a week late).
So the first week of the playoffs is over. I had been intending to post my picks before the game, but I never got around to it. As it stands, all the higher seeds won. I had thought about picking the Cowboys over the Seahawks as the most likely upset, but even there I couldn’t quite pull the trigger. The game ended up being closer than I thought it would, but it’s the final that matters.
So now we go onto the next round, starting with the NFC. Seattle at Chicago should be the most lopsided of the four games. Seattle came in and got thumped back in October. Granted, they will have Shawn Alexander back and the Chicago defense is more beaten up, but the Seattle defense is in tatters. The Bears should have little problem pounding the ball, mixing in a few short passes (and maybe one bomb here and there) and completely control the game. If Rex Grossman commits 5 turnovers, I could see Seattle winning this game, but there is no need for high-risk offense and the Bears should be able to just grind Seattle down.
Philadelphia at New Orleans is a much harder game to pick. Philly’s offense didn’t look that great against the Giants, but they are riding a hot streak right now. New Orleans has a very good offense, but their defense gives up the big play a lot. I think if Drew Breese is careful with the ball and doesn’t throw picks in the end zone, New Orleans will win in an squeeker. But any major mistakes by the Saints will result in an Eagles win.
On the AFC side, Indianapolis will face the Ravens in a match-up of the two Baltimore teams. The game matches up Indy’s high-powered offense vs. Baltimore’s stingy defense. Defense usually wins, but I’m not sold that the Ravens are as good as everyone thinks they are. But, in Baltimore, the Colt’s defense will not be able to run like at home and against Jamal Lewis, the Colt’s will get very tired, very quickly. I lean towards Baltimore in this game, because of ball-control offense (as the Chiefs were supposed to do) rather than any great performance of the Baltimore defense.
Finally we have New England at San Diego. New England was not overly impressive yesterday. If the Jets had managed to punch it into the end zone rather than settle for field goals, New England would have had a much harder time of it and might have lost the game. Still, they are resourceful, and it’s hard to go with Marty Schottenheimer (who has lost a lot of playoff games) vs. Bill Belichek. New England’s defense will pressure Philip Rivers, but I think LaDamien Tomlinson will play enough of an equalizer to get San Diego to the next round.
So the first week of the playoffs is over. I had been intending to post my picks before the game, but I never got around to it. As it stands, all the higher seeds won. I had thought about picking the Cowboys over the Seahawks as the most likely upset, but even there I couldn’t quite pull the trigger. The game ended up being closer than I thought it would, but it’s the final that matters.
So now we go onto the next round, starting with the NFC. Seattle at Chicago should be the most lopsided of the four games. Seattle came in and got thumped back in October. Granted, they will have Shawn Alexander back and the Chicago defense is more beaten up, but the Seattle defense is in tatters. The Bears should have little problem pounding the ball, mixing in a few short passes (and maybe one bomb here and there) and completely control the game. If Rex Grossman commits 5 turnovers, I could see Seattle winning this game, but there is no need for high-risk offense and the Bears should be able to just grind Seattle down.
Philadelphia at New Orleans is a much harder game to pick. Philly’s offense didn’t look that great against the Giants, but they are riding a hot streak right now. New Orleans has a very good offense, but their defense gives up the big play a lot. I think if Drew Breese is careful with the ball and doesn’t throw picks in the end zone, New Orleans will win in an squeeker. But any major mistakes by the Saints will result in an Eagles win.
On the AFC side, Indianapolis will face the Ravens in a match-up of the two Baltimore teams. The game matches up Indy’s high-powered offense vs. Baltimore’s stingy defense. Defense usually wins, but I’m not sold that the Ravens are as good as everyone thinks they are. But, in Baltimore, the Colt’s defense will not be able to run like at home and against Jamal Lewis, the Colt’s will get very tired, very quickly. I lean towards Baltimore in this game, because of ball-control offense (as the Chiefs were supposed to do) rather than any great performance of the Baltimore defense.
Finally we have New England at San Diego. New England was not overly impressive yesterday. If the Jets had managed to punch it into the end zone rather than settle for field goals, New England would have had a much harder time of it and might have lost the game. Still, they are resourceful, and it’s hard to go with Marty Schottenheimer (who has lost a lot of playoff games) vs. Bill Belichek. New England’s defense will pressure Philip Rivers, but I think LaDamien Tomlinson will play enough of an equalizer to get San Diego to the next round.
Tuesday, December 19, 2006
Defensive Morons
Well the Bengals lost last night, mostly because the defensive coordinator is a moron. After watching 14 games this season, anyone could tell you that the Bengals front 4 is not good enough to get a consistent pass rush. But at no time did I see the Bengals try to blitz with any regularity. What’s more, the linebackers and corners dropped and covered deep, routinely leaving the 5-8 yard dump pass over the middle open. So Peyton Manning and co. dinked and dunked the Bengals to death. Meanwhile, Carson Palmer never got into a rhythm due to the offense’s strong desire to push the Colts run defense. They did that well, but Palmer never got comfortable and the O-line could not contain the Colts pass rush.
All told, this vaults three games into the spotlight to see who makes the AFC playoffs: New England at Jacksonville, Cincinnati at Denver, and NY Jets at Miami on Monday night. Denver plays San Francisco in its final game so if the Broncos beat the Bengals, Denver is almost sure to finish 10-6 and get in. Likewise for the Jets: they play Oakland at home in the last game so if they beat the Dolphins, they will finish at 10-6 and make the playoffs. Jacksonville finishes the season at Kansas City and they play terrible on the road so if the Jaguars lose to New England, they are almost sure to finish the season at 8-8. Even if they win against New England, losing to Kansas City would mean a 9-7 finish with a 6-6 record against the AFC, probably not good enough to get in.
Then you have the morass with the Bengals. If the Bengals beat Denver, they are almost guaranteed to get in, even if they lose to the Steelers the following week (assuming Jacksonville loses one of their last two games) as they will have the head to head against Denver and a better AFC record than Jacksonville. They would only be threatened if Buffalo wins their last two games to also finish 9-7 with a 7-5 record against the AFC. The next tiebreaker is record against common opponents with a minimum of 4, followed by strength of victory and strength of schedule. But, Buffalo closes out the season against Baltimore and the Ravens might still be playing hard to try and get the #1 or #2 seed. If the Bengals lose to Denver, they will need the Jets to lose to Miami or Oakland to have a shot as well as have Jacksonville go down and win against Pittsburgh.
So, I think the Jets will get in and the winner of Cincinnati – Denver will get in. How the seeds will shake out is still up in the air and it looks like the three top seeds will have to keep fighting it out to see who gets the #1 and #2 seeds.
All told, this vaults three games into the spotlight to see who makes the AFC playoffs: New England at Jacksonville, Cincinnati at Denver, and NY Jets at Miami on Monday night. Denver plays San Francisco in its final game so if the Broncos beat the Bengals, Denver is almost sure to finish 10-6 and get in. Likewise for the Jets: they play Oakland at home in the last game so if they beat the Dolphins, they will finish at 10-6 and make the playoffs. Jacksonville finishes the season at Kansas City and they play terrible on the road so if the Jaguars lose to New England, they are almost sure to finish the season at 8-8. Even if they win against New England, losing to Kansas City would mean a 9-7 finish with a 6-6 record against the AFC, probably not good enough to get in.
Then you have the morass with the Bengals. If the Bengals beat Denver, they are almost guaranteed to get in, even if they lose to the Steelers the following week (assuming Jacksonville loses one of their last two games) as they will have the head to head against Denver and a better AFC record than Jacksonville. They would only be threatened if Buffalo wins their last two games to also finish 9-7 with a 7-5 record against the AFC. The next tiebreaker is record against common opponents with a minimum of 4, followed by strength of victory and strength of schedule. But, Buffalo closes out the season against Baltimore and the Ravens might still be playing hard to try and get the #1 or #2 seed. If the Bengals lose to Denver, they will need the Jets to lose to Miami or Oakland to have a shot as well as have Jacksonville go down and win against Pittsburgh.
So, I think the Jets will get in and the winner of Cincinnati – Denver will get in. How the seeds will shake out is still up in the air and it looks like the three top seeds will have to keep fighting it out to see who gets the #1 and #2 seeds.
Monday, December 18, 2006
Playoff Mists
Continuing with our series of football updates, San Diego is moving more and more into the team to beat. If the Bengals manage to beat Indianapolis tonight (and that’s a big if), San Diego will secure a first-round bye. Unfortunately for them, they have to keep playing their A-list players even if Indy loses because Baltimore keeps winning and Baltimore would have the tiebreaker if the two clubs finish the season tied. So, in order to secure the #1 seed, San Diego has to finish the season one game up on Baltimore and given Baltimore’s schedule, that could mean that San Diego must finish at 14-2 to Baltimore’s 13-3. Fortunately, San Diego finishes up against some pud opponents (Seattle and Arizona). As such, it seems very likely that San Diego and Baltimore will be your #1 and #2 seeds.
Indianapolis won the AFC South by virtue of Jacksonville’s loss to Tennessee. New England vented its anger against Houston and will probably try to complete the righting of the ship against Jacksonville next weekend. However, Jacksonville plays very well at home so don’t expect a cakewalk for the Pats. Plus, New England finishes the season against the surging Titans. The Patriots will probably win at least one of these games and secure the AFC East, but they are going to have a tough go of it. With Indy freefalling at the moment due to injuries, these two teams are virtual locks for the #3 and #4 seeds. Given that Indy has the tiebreaker and a game against Houston next week, I think Indy will hold the #3 seed, regardless of what happens tonight.
That leaves the wild cards. The Bengals can take a commanding position if they beat Indianapolis tonight. The Bengals win percentage against the AFC is better than all other wild card contenders at the moment. If they win, they will also be a full game up on Denver, Jacksonville, and the Jets. Denver has the next best record and currently holds the #6 seed. Jacksonville has the tiebreaker against the Jets, but the Jets’ schedule allows them hope of getting in if Cincinnati, Denver or Jacksonville stumbles. If Cincinnati loses tonight, they will fall to the #6 spot, behind Denver, with the match-up at Mile-High determining who probably gets in. Theoretically, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and Tennessee are still in the hunt at 7-7 but the odds are already long that a 9-7 team will get in. Plus, Pittsburgh will probably go down to the Ravens next week and Tennessee and Buffalo face each other. So, there will probably be only one 8-7 team among this bunch after next week anyway.
On the NFC side, everyone sucks. Chicago won the #1 seed, but needed overtime against a Tampa Bay team that hadn’t scored a TD since late November. New Orleans is still the #2 seed by virtue of their win over Dallas, but the Saints looked bad against the Deadskins. But, Dallas must defeat a resurgent Philadelphia team next week while New Orleans faces off against the problematic Giants.
Meanwhile, Seattle could lose their next two games and if San Francisco wins their last two, the 49ers will win the West and the #4 seed. I think that’s unlikely as Seattle faces Tampa Bay in Week 17 while San Francisco plays Denver, but it’s a possibility.
Philadelphia has put itself in a good position to lock up the #5 seed, but if they beat Dallas next week and Atlanta after that, Philly would win the NFC East. Either way, Philadelphia is a strong bet to make the playoffs after being left for dead. Atlanta meanwhile is in a world of hurt. They can defeat the Panthers next week to get themselves back to 8-7, but the team’s confidence is shaken after Jim Mora’s comments about possibly leaving if the University of Washington job came open and defeat against the Eagles in week 17 looms large. If the Falcons don’t make the playoffs, Mora will probably be fired. The Giants are also still in the mix as they currently hold the #6 seed. Their schedule lends itself towards an 8-8 finish and since they hold the tiebreaker over Atlanta, they get in.
Green Bay, Minnesota, St. Louis, and San Francisco could also all win out to challenge the Giants and Falcons for the last playoff spot, but schedule and tiebreakers favor the Giants. Minnesota has the best chance as they play Green Bay and St. Louis in the last two weeks and if they win those, they would be 8-8 with an 8-4 record against the NFC, better than any other potential 8-8 team. But Minnesota has been sketchy and after squandering their chance against the Jets, the Vikings will need to be perfect down the stretch.
So, the current playoff match-ups are as follows:
AFC
#1 San Diego – bye
#2 Baltimore – bye
#6 Denver at #3 Indianapolis
#5 Cincinnati at #4 New England
NFC
#1 Chicago – bye
#2 New Orleans – bye
#6 NY Giants at #3 Dallas
#5 Philadelphia at #4 Seattle
Philadelphia would like nothing better for this to be the case. Seattle is looking very mortal and if they win there, they would travel to Chicago. The Bears don’t look very good either, giving the Eagles a good chance of getting back the NFC title game with a back-up quarterback. Of course, if they win the East, they could fight their way all the way to the #2 seed if New Orleans doesn’t recover. Either way, the Eagles could find themselves in their fifth NFC title game in six years.
Indianapolis won the AFC South by virtue of Jacksonville’s loss to Tennessee. New England vented its anger against Houston and will probably try to complete the righting of the ship against Jacksonville next weekend. However, Jacksonville plays very well at home so don’t expect a cakewalk for the Pats. Plus, New England finishes the season against the surging Titans. The Patriots will probably win at least one of these games and secure the AFC East, but they are going to have a tough go of it. With Indy freefalling at the moment due to injuries, these two teams are virtual locks for the #3 and #4 seeds. Given that Indy has the tiebreaker and a game against Houston next week, I think Indy will hold the #3 seed, regardless of what happens tonight.
That leaves the wild cards. The Bengals can take a commanding position if they beat Indianapolis tonight. The Bengals win percentage against the AFC is better than all other wild card contenders at the moment. If they win, they will also be a full game up on Denver, Jacksonville, and the Jets. Denver has the next best record and currently holds the #6 seed. Jacksonville has the tiebreaker against the Jets, but the Jets’ schedule allows them hope of getting in if Cincinnati, Denver or Jacksonville stumbles. If Cincinnati loses tonight, they will fall to the #6 spot, behind Denver, with the match-up at Mile-High determining who probably gets in. Theoretically, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and Tennessee are still in the hunt at 7-7 but the odds are already long that a 9-7 team will get in. Plus, Pittsburgh will probably go down to the Ravens next week and Tennessee and Buffalo face each other. So, there will probably be only one 8-7 team among this bunch after next week anyway.
On the NFC side, everyone sucks. Chicago won the #1 seed, but needed overtime against a Tampa Bay team that hadn’t scored a TD since late November. New Orleans is still the #2 seed by virtue of their win over Dallas, but the Saints looked bad against the Deadskins. But, Dallas must defeat a resurgent Philadelphia team next week while New Orleans faces off against the problematic Giants.
Meanwhile, Seattle could lose their next two games and if San Francisco wins their last two, the 49ers will win the West and the #4 seed. I think that’s unlikely as Seattle faces Tampa Bay in Week 17 while San Francisco plays Denver, but it’s a possibility.
Philadelphia has put itself in a good position to lock up the #5 seed, but if they beat Dallas next week and Atlanta after that, Philly would win the NFC East. Either way, Philadelphia is a strong bet to make the playoffs after being left for dead. Atlanta meanwhile is in a world of hurt. They can defeat the Panthers next week to get themselves back to 8-7, but the team’s confidence is shaken after Jim Mora’s comments about possibly leaving if the University of Washington job came open and defeat against the Eagles in week 17 looms large. If the Falcons don’t make the playoffs, Mora will probably be fired. The Giants are also still in the mix as they currently hold the #6 seed. Their schedule lends itself towards an 8-8 finish and since they hold the tiebreaker over Atlanta, they get in.
Green Bay, Minnesota, St. Louis, and San Francisco could also all win out to challenge the Giants and Falcons for the last playoff spot, but schedule and tiebreakers favor the Giants. Minnesota has the best chance as they play Green Bay and St. Louis in the last two weeks and if they win those, they would be 8-8 with an 8-4 record against the NFC, better than any other potential 8-8 team. But Minnesota has been sketchy and after squandering their chance against the Jets, the Vikings will need to be perfect down the stretch.
So, the current playoff match-ups are as follows:
AFC
#1 San Diego – bye
#2 Baltimore – bye
#6 Denver at #3 Indianapolis
#5 Cincinnati at #4 New England
NFC
#1 Chicago – bye
#2 New Orleans – bye
#6 NY Giants at #3 Dallas
#5 Philadelphia at #4 Seattle
Philadelphia would like nothing better for this to be the case. Seattle is looking very mortal and if they win there, they would travel to Chicago. The Bears don’t look very good either, giving the Eagles a good chance of getting back the NFC title game with a back-up quarterback. Of course, if they win the East, they could fight their way all the way to the #2 seed if New Orleans doesn’t recover. Either way, the Eagles could find themselves in their fifth NFC title game in six years.
Tuesday, December 12, 2006
Samson Exposed
Ehud Olmert, Prime Minister of Israel, admitted in a slip of the tongue what we already know: that Israeli has nuclear weapons. Some people believe that Israel could have the sixth largest nuclear arsenal and probably the most sophisticated delivery system. But Olmert’s mistake came in admitting it at all. Israel has long clung to a policy of ambiguity: don’t admit, don’t deny. Better to keep the Arabs guessing and never have proof. Now, the Arabs have their proof.
Some might not see this as a big deal, but it actually is. Now that the cat is officially out of the bag, Iran is going to thumb its nose at everyone and say that they need nuclear weapons to counter the threat from Israel. Not that the world community was going to stop Iran, but this eliminates any possibility of anyone outside of the US and maybe Britain of applying sanctions to Iran and we already have them in place.
Secondly, Israel can no longer hope for the US backing if they chose to bomb the Iranian sites. Israel was always going to be vilified for a preemptive strike on Iran, but they could have probably counted on the US support and the rest of the world talking out of both sides of their mouth about how it was a terrible thing Israel did, but its also nice to not have a nuclear Iran. Now the world will universally condemn Israel for being a have and imposing its will on its neighbors. The world will try to apply great pressure to Israel and the US will probably not even try to stop it, finding no real hole in the world's argument.
The third consequence is that after some sort of hostilities erupt next year, the UN will come down and demand that the Middle East be declared a nuclear free zone. They might actually enforce it in Iran and other countries, but the focus of their wrath will be on Israel. Israel, to maintain any standing in the world community will be forced to give up their nuclear weapons and subject themselves to UN inspection tours. Without the threat of nuclear reprisals, the enemies of Israel will gather their forces for a large-scale invasion. Losses will be heavy, but if they act quickly, they should overwhelm the unprepared Israelis. At least, that’s what they think.
Midnight is approaching and Olmert is pushing the minute hand only that much faster.
Some might not see this as a big deal, but it actually is. Now that the cat is officially out of the bag, Iran is going to thumb its nose at everyone and say that they need nuclear weapons to counter the threat from Israel. Not that the world community was going to stop Iran, but this eliminates any possibility of anyone outside of the US and maybe Britain of applying sanctions to Iran and we already have them in place.
Secondly, Israel can no longer hope for the US backing if they chose to bomb the Iranian sites. Israel was always going to be vilified for a preemptive strike on Iran, but they could have probably counted on the US support and the rest of the world talking out of both sides of their mouth about how it was a terrible thing Israel did, but its also nice to not have a nuclear Iran. Now the world will universally condemn Israel for being a have and imposing its will on its neighbors. The world will try to apply great pressure to Israel and the US will probably not even try to stop it, finding no real hole in the world's argument.
The third consequence is that after some sort of hostilities erupt next year, the UN will come down and demand that the Middle East be declared a nuclear free zone. They might actually enforce it in Iran and other countries, but the focus of their wrath will be on Israel. Israel, to maintain any standing in the world community will be forced to give up their nuclear weapons and subject themselves to UN inspection tours. Without the threat of nuclear reprisals, the enemies of Israel will gather their forces for a large-scale invasion. Losses will be heavy, but if they act quickly, they should overwhelm the unprepared Israelis. At least, that’s what they think.
Midnight is approaching and Olmert is pushing the minute hand only that much faster.
Monday, December 11, 2006
Israeli Football
First, some football: the AFC continues to be clouded as only two of the 7-5 teams won, while two of the division leaders got slapped silly. San Diego, aided by losses by Denver, Kansas City, and Indianapolis, both won the West but also vaulted into the #1 position. Indianapolis holds a tiebreaker over Baltimore at the moment, but with the lack of run defense, it is possible that Indy could fall behind the Ravens in the quest for the #2 seed. San Diego’s road is easy enough over the last three games that they should be able to hold onto that #1 seed. New England looked terrible but it should still be able to hold onto the East and the #4 seed that will come with it.
The wild card became clearer, although it is not well defined yet. Cincinnati and Jacksonville both won, but each team’s schedule could deal the team crippling blows towards getting into the playoffs. Cincinnati must go to Indianapolis and Denver and win at least one of those games (the Denver game is probably the more needed one) while Jacksonville must square off against a resurgent Tennessee and travel to Kansas City and Jacksonville has not played well on the road this year. The Jets, the Chiefs, and the Broncos are still in things at 7-6 but one more loss will probably doom their playoff chances. The Steelers, Dolphins, Bills, and Titans are still harboring delusions of the playoffs. The Steelers hopes will die against the Ravens in two weeks while the Dolphins and Bills will probably go down in random losses or tiebreakers that were settled when both teams were suffering early in the season. The Titans have a chance, but their failures early will probably doom them.
On the NFC side, Chicago will probably beat the Rams tonight and all but clinch the #1 seed. New Orleans has done well and can probably hold the #2 seed as the Seahawks don’t seem to be doing well at the moment. Dallas is currently sitting in fourth, but can pass the bumbling Seahawks with a couple of wins. The Giants and Eagles currently hold the #5 and #6 seeds but they play each other this weekend. Atlanta is in there as well, but they play Dallas this weekend. So the door is still open for the Panthers. If the Falcons lose to Dallas and the Panthers beat Pittsburgh, they are back in the mix of it for the #6 seed. I don’t think that’s likely and I would opt for 6-7 Minnesota to be more likely to get back in the mix. Ultimately, I think the odds and schedule favor the Giants to secure the #5 seed while the #6 seed will pass to either Atlanta or Minnesota. Minnesota’s schedule is significantly easier than Atlanta’s but they have been so unreliable in the past few games that I can’t pull the trigger on them just yet.
Current Playoff Schedule:
AFC:
#1 San Diego - bye
#2 Indianapolis - bye
#6 Jacksonville at #3 Baltimore
#5 Cincinnati at #4 New England
NFC:
#1 Chicago – bye
#2 New Orleans – bye
#6 Philadelphia at #3 Seattle
#5 NY Giants at #4 Dallas
In non-football related news, Baby X turns 7 months today and is still very cute. She still has some problems with waking up during the night, but we’re trying to power through those.
Meanwhile, the world is still moving with steady progress towards a large confrontation with Israel in the late spring or early summer of 2007. Iran is predicting to have fully fissile material by the end of March, which should give them a fully functional nuclear weapon a couple of months after that. Iran won’t have enough to use in the next confrontation with Israel, but it will probably hold the nuclear weapons as a means of keeping the US forces in Iraq to come to Israel’s aid when the attack is launched. Iran may even be hoping that Israel attempts to knock out the Iran facilities and use that as a means of triggering the war. About the only thing that throws any kind of wrench into their plans is the factionalism among the Palestinians in Gaza that prevents a united front. Iran may back a major power push against Fatah in the next few weeks to secure a united front in the south and Hamas has shown them to be a little more agreeable to Iran’s frame of mind. Either way, I would be very surprised if a large-scale war has not broken out by mid to late May next year.
The wild card became clearer, although it is not well defined yet. Cincinnati and Jacksonville both won, but each team’s schedule could deal the team crippling blows towards getting into the playoffs. Cincinnati must go to Indianapolis and Denver and win at least one of those games (the Denver game is probably the more needed one) while Jacksonville must square off against a resurgent Tennessee and travel to Kansas City and Jacksonville has not played well on the road this year. The Jets, the Chiefs, and the Broncos are still in things at 7-6 but one more loss will probably doom their playoff chances. The Steelers, Dolphins, Bills, and Titans are still harboring delusions of the playoffs. The Steelers hopes will die against the Ravens in two weeks while the Dolphins and Bills will probably go down in random losses or tiebreakers that were settled when both teams were suffering early in the season. The Titans have a chance, but their failures early will probably doom them.
On the NFC side, Chicago will probably beat the Rams tonight and all but clinch the #1 seed. New Orleans has done well and can probably hold the #2 seed as the Seahawks don’t seem to be doing well at the moment. Dallas is currently sitting in fourth, but can pass the bumbling Seahawks with a couple of wins. The Giants and Eagles currently hold the #5 and #6 seeds but they play each other this weekend. Atlanta is in there as well, but they play Dallas this weekend. So the door is still open for the Panthers. If the Falcons lose to Dallas and the Panthers beat Pittsburgh, they are back in the mix of it for the #6 seed. I don’t think that’s likely and I would opt for 6-7 Minnesota to be more likely to get back in the mix. Ultimately, I think the odds and schedule favor the Giants to secure the #5 seed while the #6 seed will pass to either Atlanta or Minnesota. Minnesota’s schedule is significantly easier than Atlanta’s but they have been so unreliable in the past few games that I can’t pull the trigger on them just yet.
Current Playoff Schedule:
AFC:
#1 San Diego - bye
#2 Indianapolis - bye
#6 Jacksonville at #3 Baltimore
#5 Cincinnati at #4 New England
NFC:
#1 Chicago – bye
#2 New Orleans – bye
#6 Philadelphia at #3 Seattle
#5 NY Giants at #4 Dallas
In non-football related news, Baby X turns 7 months today and is still very cute. She still has some problems with waking up during the night, but we’re trying to power through those.
Meanwhile, the world is still moving with steady progress towards a large confrontation with Israel in the late spring or early summer of 2007. Iran is predicting to have fully fissile material by the end of March, which should give them a fully functional nuclear weapon a couple of months after that. Iran won’t have enough to use in the next confrontation with Israel, but it will probably hold the nuclear weapons as a means of keeping the US forces in Iraq to come to Israel’s aid when the attack is launched. Iran may even be hoping that Israel attempts to knock out the Iran facilities and use that as a means of triggering the war. About the only thing that throws any kind of wrench into their plans is the factionalism among the Palestinians in Gaza that prevents a united front. Iran may back a major power push against Fatah in the next few weeks to secure a united front in the south and Hamas has shown them to be a little more agreeable to Iran’s frame of mind. Either way, I would be very surprised if a large-scale war has not broken out by mid to late May next year.
Thursday, December 07, 2006
Football Alternate Universe
Whilst reading a column on the Sports Illustrated site, I came across an interesting comment. Someone had asked what was the most season changing play of the college football season and the writer had responded that (in his opinion) it was Rutgers first attempt at the game winning field goal against Louisville. The kick missed, but a Louisville player jumped offsides, giving Rutgers 5 yards and a second kick. So what would have happened if that player had not jumped offsides and Louisville had won the game in overtime?
Having defeated the two biggest rivals on their schedule, Louisville would have vaulted to the #2 spot in the BCS standings. They would have cemented that standing, as everyone else around them finished with one or two losses and Louisville would now be playing the BCS title game. This would make the folks in Columbus happy, as they have not been looking for a National Championship Game but rather an anointing ceremony. I’m not sure they will get that against Florida but it would have been a little more likely against Louisville. The BCS bowl games would have looked like this:
National Title Bowl: Ohio St. vs. Louisville
Rose: USC vs. Michigan
Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. Boise St.
Sugar: Florida vs. Notre Dame
Orange: Wake Forrest vs. LSU
I was mistakenly under the impression that the Big East automatically went to the Orange Bowl, but that is only true for the ACC. Prior to the BCS it seems it was tradition for the ACC to play the Big East, but they do not have a guaranteed bowl like the others do. So Louisville’s selection would have been like taking an at-large team. The Rose Bowl would have snapped up Michigan to replace Ohio St. and the rest of the Bowls would have selected as they did this year: Sugar, Orange, Fiesta.
Having defeated the two biggest rivals on their schedule, Louisville would have vaulted to the #2 spot in the BCS standings. They would have cemented that standing, as everyone else around them finished with one or two losses and Louisville would now be playing the BCS title game. This would make the folks in Columbus happy, as they have not been looking for a National Championship Game but rather an anointing ceremony. I’m not sure they will get that against Florida but it would have been a little more likely against Louisville. The BCS bowl games would have looked like this:
National Title Bowl: Ohio St. vs. Louisville
Rose: USC vs. Michigan
Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. Boise St.
Sugar: Florida vs. Notre Dame
Orange: Wake Forrest vs. LSU
I was mistakenly under the impression that the Big East automatically went to the Orange Bowl, but that is only true for the ACC. Prior to the BCS it seems it was tradition for the ACC to play the Big East, but they do not have a guaranteed bowl like the others do. So Louisville’s selection would have been like taking an at-large team. The Rose Bowl would have snapped up Michigan to replace Ohio St. and the rest of the Bowls would have selected as they did this year: Sugar, Orange, Fiesta.
Monday, December 04, 2006
More Football
So a few things happened on the way to the Ohio St.-USC game. USC lost to UCLA while Florida actually held up its end of the bargin and beat Arkansas. For this prowess and the desire to not have Michigan play OSU in a rematch, the voters conciously voted Florida into the #2 spot. Michigan is correct to gripe that if USC had won, they would have finished the season at #3 while Florida stayed at #4, that is true. But that is for the BCS voters to decide.
What the voters were really afraid of is a Michigan-Ohio St. rematch where Michigan beats Ohio St. and Florida beats Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl leaving three 1-loss teams and the "National Champion" as a team which didn't even win its conference. Michigan will gripe and complain, but at the end of the day, they had a chance to beat Ohio St. and didn't do it. Let's see if the best of the SEC can. If Florida wins and Michigan defeats USC in the Rose Bowl, then we can discuss what could have been, but for now its Ohio St. vs. Florida.
In the NFL, things got more interesting. The four conference winners are pretty much set in the AFC and only the South is still up for grabs in the NFC. The AFC 1-4 seeds will be Indianapolis, San Diego, Baltimore, and New England with San Diego now in a great position to grab the #1 seed away from Indianapolis. Baltimore and New England will probably fight it out for the #3 and 4 seeds. Chicago has already won the NFC North while Dallas and Seattle have significant leads in the East and West. I think Dallas will secure the #2 seed and Seattle and New Orleans will fight it out for the #3 and 4 seeds.
But it's the AFC wild cards that are the topic of discussion. With the Jets, Cincinnati and Jacksonville all winning and Denver and Kansas City losing, there is now a 5 way tie for two wild card spots. The Jets and the Bengals currently have the tiebreakers that allow them to get in and that may or may not change. The Jets have an easy last four games and should lose no more than one game, puting them in for the #5 seed and a probable date with New England. Kansas City, Jacksonville, and Denver all cross paths with very difficult teams, as does Cincinnati. The team that emerges with only one loss will win the last spot. Cincinnati and Denver face probable losses against Indianapolis and San Diego respectively, setting up their Week 16 match-up as the probable winner take all for trip to Baltimore.
On the NFC side, mediocraty reigns supreme as 6-5 Carolina and 6-6 NY Giants fill the two wild card spots and 6-6 Atlanta waits in the wings. It is highly probable that the #6 seed in the NFC will be 9-7 or possibly worse.
But at this particular moment, I would say that San Diego beats Dallas in the Super Bowl. We'll see.
What the voters were really afraid of is a Michigan-Ohio St. rematch where Michigan beats Ohio St. and Florida beats Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl leaving three 1-loss teams and the "National Champion" as a team which didn't even win its conference. Michigan will gripe and complain, but at the end of the day, they had a chance to beat Ohio St. and didn't do it. Let's see if the best of the SEC can. If Florida wins and Michigan defeats USC in the Rose Bowl, then we can discuss what could have been, but for now its Ohio St. vs. Florida.
In the NFL, things got more interesting. The four conference winners are pretty much set in the AFC and only the South is still up for grabs in the NFC. The AFC 1-4 seeds will be Indianapolis, San Diego, Baltimore, and New England with San Diego now in a great position to grab the #1 seed away from Indianapolis. Baltimore and New England will probably fight it out for the #3 and 4 seeds. Chicago has already won the NFC North while Dallas and Seattle have significant leads in the East and West. I think Dallas will secure the #2 seed and Seattle and New Orleans will fight it out for the #3 and 4 seeds.
But it's the AFC wild cards that are the topic of discussion. With the Jets, Cincinnati and Jacksonville all winning and Denver and Kansas City losing, there is now a 5 way tie for two wild card spots. The Jets and the Bengals currently have the tiebreakers that allow them to get in and that may or may not change. The Jets have an easy last four games and should lose no more than one game, puting them in for the #5 seed and a probable date with New England. Kansas City, Jacksonville, and Denver all cross paths with very difficult teams, as does Cincinnati. The team that emerges with only one loss will win the last spot. Cincinnati and Denver face probable losses against Indianapolis and San Diego respectively, setting up their Week 16 match-up as the probable winner take all for trip to Baltimore.
On the NFC side, mediocraty reigns supreme as 6-5 Carolina and 6-6 NY Giants fill the two wild card spots and 6-6 Atlanta waits in the wings. It is highly probable that the #6 seed in the NFC will be 9-7 or possibly worse.
But at this particular moment, I would say that San Diego beats Dallas in the Super Bowl. We'll see.
Monday, November 27, 2006
Thanksgiving Football
Well, another weekend of football has come and gone. Turkey day was good and I even managed to avoid killing anyone with my cooking.
The BCS bowl games became much clearer with several key losses. First, USC defeating Notre Dame vaulted them firmly over Michigan and unless USC goes down to UCLA, they will play Ohio St. in the National Championship. This of course must annoy the Rose Bowl because it means that the Rose Bowl would have been the de facto national championship in the pre-BCS era.
In the other 4 conferences, the championships are set. The Big 12 is Nebraska vs. Oklahoma with the winner going to the Fiesta Bowl where they will play Boise St. Florida plays Arkansas for the SEC championship and a berth in the Sugar Bowl. If Arkansas wins, there will be no debate, but if Florida wins, Urban Meyer will be grousing for quite a while about his team not getting a shot at the National Title game. So the BCS folks are quietly hoping that Arkansas kicks Florida’s butt.
The Orange Bowl will feature the ACC Champ (Wake Forrest or Georgia Tech) vs. the Big East Champ. The Big East champion will be determined by the West Virginia –Rutgers game. Most people are pretty confident that Louisville will beat UConn, leaving Louisville at 11-1. If Rutgers wins, they have the tiebreaker against Louisville and will win the Big East. If West Virginia wins, Louisville will be the only one loss team in the conference and will win. However, if West Virginia wins and Louisville somehow loses to UConn, there will be a three-way tie and the overall BCS standings will determine who goes to the Orange Bowl.
That just leaves the two at-large spots in the Sugar Bowl and the Rose Bowl, since Michigan will take Ohio St.’s spot in the Rose. Next highest in the BCS standings without a championship spot is LSU at #5, which is an automatic berth in a BCS game if there is room. Given that no one wants to see a rematch of SEC teams in the Sugar Bowl, LSU will go play Michigan in the Rose Bowl.
That just leaves the Sugar Bowl and who will play Florida or Arkansas. On the surface, it would seem that Wisconsin should get the nod, as they are the next best team that’s not a champion, but apparently there is a rule in the BCS that no conference can send more than 2 teams to BCS games. Thus, Wisconsin can’t get to the BCS even though they may end up finishing the season in the #6 spot of the BCS. Running down the rankings, there are two possibilities. If Rutgers wins the Big East, Louisville would go (assuming they beat UConn) as they are currently ranked #6 and the top six teams automatically go. But, if Louisville wins the Big East, the next team would be Notre Dame, who are currently #10 in the BCS standings and would trump any SEC team ahead of them as there are already two SEC teams in the BCS.
Thus, my current BCS Bowl projections currently shake out as:
National Title Game: Ohio St. vs. USC
Rose Bowl: Michigan vs. LSU
Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska vs. Boise St.
Orange Bowl: Louisville vs. Georgia Tech
Sugar Bowl: Arkansas vs. Notre Dame
On the NFL front, the AFC leaders tightened their grip while the wild card spots got a little looser. Indianapolis, Baltimore, San Diego, and New England currently hold the 1-4 seeds respectively and only some jostling between Indy, San Diego and Baltimore seem likely in shifting the seeds. The wild cards are Denver, and Kansas City, but they are both sitting with 7-4 records and Denver will be trotting out Jay Cutler starting next week at QB. Thus the door is now open for the three teams tied in the #7 hole: NY Jets, Jacksonville, and Cincinnati. I firmly believe that one of those AFC West teams will go down (I had firmly believed that it would be KC until Thursday), so one of teams currently on the outside will make it. The easy choice would be Jacksonville, but after they lost to Buffalo, they need some soul searching to find themselves. Cincinnati still has a very hard schedule to overcome and the Jets are still not that convincing. I’m going to need another week to see who is capable of seizing that last spot.
On the NFC side, even with their loss, Chicago is still in a strong position. Dallas has seized control of the NFC East and if they beat the Giants this upcoming week, they will be in good position to grab the #2 seed. New Orleans has a one game lead in the south and if Carolina continues to play Jekyll and Hyde, New Orleans should be able to hold itself up and make it in as the #3 seed. Seattle is currently sitting as the #4 seed and will be getting back most of its starters. The NY Giants and Carolina are the #5 and 6 seeds but things are so mediocre in this area that only Arizona, Detroit, and Tampa Bay are truly out of the playoff picture.
The BCS bowl games became much clearer with several key losses. First, USC defeating Notre Dame vaulted them firmly over Michigan and unless USC goes down to UCLA, they will play Ohio St. in the National Championship. This of course must annoy the Rose Bowl because it means that the Rose Bowl would have been the de facto national championship in the pre-BCS era.
In the other 4 conferences, the championships are set. The Big 12 is Nebraska vs. Oklahoma with the winner going to the Fiesta Bowl where they will play Boise St. Florida plays Arkansas for the SEC championship and a berth in the Sugar Bowl. If Arkansas wins, there will be no debate, but if Florida wins, Urban Meyer will be grousing for quite a while about his team not getting a shot at the National Title game. So the BCS folks are quietly hoping that Arkansas kicks Florida’s butt.
The Orange Bowl will feature the ACC Champ (Wake Forrest or Georgia Tech) vs. the Big East Champ. The Big East champion will be determined by the West Virginia –Rutgers game. Most people are pretty confident that Louisville will beat UConn, leaving Louisville at 11-1. If Rutgers wins, they have the tiebreaker against Louisville and will win the Big East. If West Virginia wins, Louisville will be the only one loss team in the conference and will win. However, if West Virginia wins and Louisville somehow loses to UConn, there will be a three-way tie and the overall BCS standings will determine who goes to the Orange Bowl.
That just leaves the two at-large spots in the Sugar Bowl and the Rose Bowl, since Michigan will take Ohio St.’s spot in the Rose. Next highest in the BCS standings without a championship spot is LSU at #5, which is an automatic berth in a BCS game if there is room. Given that no one wants to see a rematch of SEC teams in the Sugar Bowl, LSU will go play Michigan in the Rose Bowl.
That just leaves the Sugar Bowl and who will play Florida or Arkansas. On the surface, it would seem that Wisconsin should get the nod, as they are the next best team that’s not a champion, but apparently there is a rule in the BCS that no conference can send more than 2 teams to BCS games. Thus, Wisconsin can’t get to the BCS even though they may end up finishing the season in the #6 spot of the BCS. Running down the rankings, there are two possibilities. If Rutgers wins the Big East, Louisville would go (assuming they beat UConn) as they are currently ranked #6 and the top six teams automatically go. But, if Louisville wins the Big East, the next team would be Notre Dame, who are currently #10 in the BCS standings and would trump any SEC team ahead of them as there are already two SEC teams in the BCS.
Thus, my current BCS Bowl projections currently shake out as:
National Title Game: Ohio St. vs. USC
Rose Bowl: Michigan vs. LSU
Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska vs. Boise St.
Orange Bowl: Louisville vs. Georgia Tech
Sugar Bowl: Arkansas vs. Notre Dame
On the NFL front, the AFC leaders tightened their grip while the wild card spots got a little looser. Indianapolis, Baltimore, San Diego, and New England currently hold the 1-4 seeds respectively and only some jostling between Indy, San Diego and Baltimore seem likely in shifting the seeds. The wild cards are Denver, and Kansas City, but they are both sitting with 7-4 records and Denver will be trotting out Jay Cutler starting next week at QB. Thus the door is now open for the three teams tied in the #7 hole: NY Jets, Jacksonville, and Cincinnati. I firmly believe that one of those AFC West teams will go down (I had firmly believed that it would be KC until Thursday), so one of teams currently on the outside will make it. The easy choice would be Jacksonville, but after they lost to Buffalo, they need some soul searching to find themselves. Cincinnati still has a very hard schedule to overcome and the Jets are still not that convincing. I’m going to need another week to see who is capable of seizing that last spot.
On the NFC side, even with their loss, Chicago is still in a strong position. Dallas has seized control of the NFC East and if they beat the Giants this upcoming week, they will be in good position to grab the #2 seed. New Orleans has a one game lead in the south and if Carolina continues to play Jekyll and Hyde, New Orleans should be able to hold itself up and make it in as the #3 seed. Seattle is currently sitting as the #4 seed and will be getting back most of its starters. The NY Giants and Carolina are the #5 and 6 seeds but things are so mediocre in this area that only Arizona, Detroit, and Tampa Bay are truly out of the playoff picture.
Tuesday, November 21, 2006
Correcting the Football Projections
An amendment is required for my Bowl Projections. In the Rose Bowl I had placed Cal as an “at large” and then put West Virginia in the Orange Bowl as the Big East Champion. However that did not reflect the current reality of the college football world. Had Rutgers remained unbeaten until it faced West Virginia and then lost to West Virginia, there would have been a three-way tie for first place in the Big East between West Virginia, Rutgers and Louisville. In that situation, the tiebreaker would have been the BCS standings of each team, of which West Virginia would have been highest.
However, Rutgers lost to Cincinnati this past weekend. This means that if West Virginia beats Rutgers (and Louisville and West Virginia finish with only one loss), the tiebreaker is the head to head match-up, which Louisville won. So, Louisville would win the Big East and the automatic berth in the Orange Bowl. This also means that there is a legitimate possibility that West Virginia will be sitting at either #5 or #6 in the BCS and get an automatic berth in a BCS bowl game. With Boise St. and Notre Dame also qualifying for consideration, the Rose Bowl would be forced into selecting one of these three teams and would probably opt for West Virginia as it no longer can get a Big 10-Pac 10 match up that it wants. So, the current bowl projections under this revised system are:
National Title Game: Ohio St. vs. USC
Rose Bowl: Michigan vs. West Virginia
Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs. Boise St.
Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Notre Dame
Orange Bowl: Louisville vs. Georgia Tech
These of course are subject to change. Texas will play Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship and Florida will play Arkansas in the SEC championship. Georgia Tech has locked up the ACC Coastal, but will be playing either Boston College or Wake Forrest in the ACC title game. Maryland might have a shot in there as well, but I think BC will beat Miami this weekend and that would knock Maryland out of contention. Boise St., in theory, could also lose its last game and get knocked out of its automatic berth by finishing at #12 or better in the BCS. But I doubt that will happen.
So, realistically, the only thing that is an absolute lock is that Ohio St. will be playing in the National Championship Bowl and that Notre Dame will get a BCS at-large bid, but it won’t be to the national title game or a match-up against Michigan. Current odds favor the above bids though as USC’s BCS rank will vault over Michigan if USC beats Notre Dame. Florida’s only shot at the title game is USC beating Notre Dame and then losing to UCLA, plus Arkansas beating LSU and then Florida destroying Arkansas in the SEC title game. A two-loss Notre Dame will drop Michigan’s strength of schedule and if Florida beats down a strong scheduled Arkansas team, it might push them just over the hump of Michigan. But I think the odds of USC losing to UCLA are rather small. A Notre Dame win over USC will probably cement an Ohio St.-Michigan rematch, unless the BCS voters consciously vote Florida over Michigan to specifically keep Michigan out of the title game, something I'm not sure they are ready to do.
On the NFL side of things, the picture is becoming clearer. The AFC top 5 are pretty much set at Indianapolis, San Diego, New England, Baltimore, and Denver. This leaves Jacksonville, Kansas City, the NY Jets, and Cincinnati fighting it out for the #6 seed. Jacksonville currently has the inside track.
In the NFC, injuries may give Dallas the East, but the Giants are not out just yet. Chicago is currently running away with the #1 seed as it has a three game lead over all other division leaders. The South is starting to swing Carolina’s way, but New Orleans may have enough fight left to secure a wild card spot now that Atlanta is returning to mediocrity. Seattle better get healthy quickly or they will be overtaken by San Francisco for the West crown.
If the season ended today, the NFL match-ups would be as follows:
AFC:
#1 Indianapolis – bye
#2 Baltimore – bye
#6 Jacksonville at #3 San Diego
#5 Denver at #4 New England
NFC:
#1 Chicago – bye
#2 NY Giants – bye
#6 Dallas at #3 Seattle
#5 New Orleans at #4 Carolina
However, Rutgers lost to Cincinnati this past weekend. This means that if West Virginia beats Rutgers (and Louisville and West Virginia finish with only one loss), the tiebreaker is the head to head match-up, which Louisville won. So, Louisville would win the Big East and the automatic berth in the Orange Bowl. This also means that there is a legitimate possibility that West Virginia will be sitting at either #5 or #6 in the BCS and get an automatic berth in a BCS bowl game. With Boise St. and Notre Dame also qualifying for consideration, the Rose Bowl would be forced into selecting one of these three teams and would probably opt for West Virginia as it no longer can get a Big 10-Pac 10 match up that it wants. So, the current bowl projections under this revised system are:
National Title Game: Ohio St. vs. USC
Rose Bowl: Michigan vs. West Virginia
Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs. Boise St.
Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Notre Dame
Orange Bowl: Louisville vs. Georgia Tech
These of course are subject to change. Texas will play Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship and Florida will play Arkansas in the SEC championship. Georgia Tech has locked up the ACC Coastal, but will be playing either Boston College or Wake Forrest in the ACC title game. Maryland might have a shot in there as well, but I think BC will beat Miami this weekend and that would knock Maryland out of contention. Boise St., in theory, could also lose its last game and get knocked out of its automatic berth by finishing at #12 or better in the BCS. But I doubt that will happen.
So, realistically, the only thing that is an absolute lock is that Ohio St. will be playing in the National Championship Bowl and that Notre Dame will get a BCS at-large bid, but it won’t be to the national title game or a match-up against Michigan. Current odds favor the above bids though as USC’s BCS rank will vault over Michigan if USC beats Notre Dame. Florida’s only shot at the title game is USC beating Notre Dame and then losing to UCLA, plus Arkansas beating LSU and then Florida destroying Arkansas in the SEC title game. A two-loss Notre Dame will drop Michigan’s strength of schedule and if Florida beats down a strong scheduled Arkansas team, it might push them just over the hump of Michigan. But I think the odds of USC losing to UCLA are rather small. A Notre Dame win over USC will probably cement an Ohio St.-Michigan rematch, unless the BCS voters consciously vote Florida over Michigan to specifically keep Michigan out of the title game, something I'm not sure they are ready to do.
On the NFL side of things, the picture is becoming clearer. The AFC top 5 are pretty much set at Indianapolis, San Diego, New England, Baltimore, and Denver. This leaves Jacksonville, Kansas City, the NY Jets, and Cincinnati fighting it out for the #6 seed. Jacksonville currently has the inside track.
In the NFC, injuries may give Dallas the East, but the Giants are not out just yet. Chicago is currently running away with the #1 seed as it has a three game lead over all other division leaders. The South is starting to swing Carolina’s way, but New Orleans may have enough fight left to secure a wild card spot now that Atlanta is returning to mediocrity. Seattle better get healthy quickly or they will be overtaken by San Francisco for the West crown.
If the season ended today, the NFL match-ups would be as follows:
AFC:
#1 Indianapolis – bye
#2 Baltimore – bye
#6 Jacksonville at #3 San Diego
#5 Denver at #4 New England
NFC:
#1 Chicago – bye
#2 NY Giants – bye
#6 Dallas at #3 Seattle
#5 New Orleans at #4 Carolina
Monday, November 20, 2006
Rematch?
Well, the rankings are out and Michigan is still #2 in the BCS. Some people are probably already hitting the panic button regarding a rematch, however, it should be pointed out that the other three teams in contention to play Ohio St. for the title still have three games left. One of those teams will be automatically eliminated from contention when Florida plays Arkansas in the SEC title game. USC still has a strong claim to the title match so long as they beat Notre Dame and UCLA. The Ohio St.-Michigan game being close destroyed any change Notre Dame had of getting into the title game and Rutgers loss to Cincinnati caused a huge sigh of relief for the folks at the BCS accounting department.
So who will go? I’m not sure. The consensus among the talking heads is that if USC wins out, they should go over Michigan. However, if USC falls to Notre Dame or UCLA, I’m not sure the voters will necessarily try to vault Florida into the top spot. I think Arkansas is in a hard position due to the fact that USC blew them out at home early in the season. Perhaps if they really thump LSU, they can get some talk about them, but most of the focus seems to be between Michigan, USC, and Florida. Personally, I think USC will win out and be rewarded by the voters to go play Ohio St. Immediately after the game there was talk about how good it was and that a rematch would be interesting, but I believe there is enough disquiet among the BCS voters about giving Michigan a second chance that they will look closely and try to get someone in the title game ahead of Michigan.
The 5 BCS bowls are looking like the following:
National Title game: Ohio St. vs. USC
Rose Bowl: Michigan vs. Cal
Fiesta: Texas vs. Boise St.
Sugar: Florida vs. Notre Dame
Orange: West Virginia vs. Georgia Tech
So who will go? I’m not sure. The consensus among the talking heads is that if USC wins out, they should go over Michigan. However, if USC falls to Notre Dame or UCLA, I’m not sure the voters will necessarily try to vault Florida into the top spot. I think Arkansas is in a hard position due to the fact that USC blew them out at home early in the season. Perhaps if they really thump LSU, they can get some talk about them, but most of the focus seems to be between Michigan, USC, and Florida. Personally, I think USC will win out and be rewarded by the voters to go play Ohio St. Immediately after the game there was talk about how good it was and that a rematch would be interesting, but I believe there is enough disquiet among the BCS voters about giving Michigan a second chance that they will look closely and try to get someone in the title game ahead of Michigan.
The 5 BCS bowls are looking like the following:
National Title game: Ohio St. vs. USC
Rose Bowl: Michigan vs. Cal
Fiesta: Texas vs. Boise St.
Sugar: Florida vs. Notre Dame
Orange: West Virginia vs. Georgia Tech
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
