Three and a Half Weeks to Go

We've gotten through three debates so far with one more to go next Wednesday. We've had Mrs. Clinton collapse in public and women come forward to say that Mr. Trump groped or ogled them inappropriately. So where are we right now?

If you go scouring of the major polls, it would seem that the race is more or less over and that Mrs. Clinton is going to win with Electoral College numbers that might rival Mr. Obama's. However, there are a few caveats to that. I'm not saying that Mrs. Clinton isn't going to win, she very well might and might with dramatic effect. But just taking a closer look than a cursory glance and some cracks start to appear.

First, there are the polls themselves. Polls are getting more and more difficult to rely on because the changing nature of technology. Many people, like myself, no longer have land lines and there is a law that prevents polling companies from calling cell phones. As such, many polls, especially the quick turnaround ones, don't get as reliable a cross-section of the populace that they once did. Of course, it is also the job of the polling company to correct for this in their mathematical modeling so this is a potential error that can be corrected with effort.

There is one other thing about polls that give me a bit of pause. If you dive into these polls, you can find the sample breakdowns and there are a number (not all) of them that seem a little heavily weighted to one side. Sample weighing in some of these polls is projecting a Democratic turnout greater that Mr. Obama got in 2008 and while a number of people are very turned off by Mr. Trump, I'm not seeing that they are overwhelmingly jazzed about Mrs. Clinton either. A 2012 weighing would probably be a bit more accurate but even then, I'm not sure Mrs. Clinton is going to get the African-American turnout that Mr. Obama did. Maybe she will and I'm wrong, but there is something in some of these polls that smells a little off.

Next we move to the scandals with women and Mr. Trump. I'm not the type of person to immediately dismiss the claims of women who say they have been victimized, but there is a big caveat here. I am sure that Mr. Trump has been lewd with women. He's been lewd and crass through this who election cycle and long before that so the idea that he has done these type of things is entirely believable. But the timing of all of this is suspect. In 2012, Herman Cain had accusations of demeaning behavior with women several months before the Iowa caucus. Likewise, other powerful men have had accusations leveled at them early and often. Mr. Clinton dodged accusations of rape and other sexual offenses throughout his election and even into his presidency. The point is that Mr. Trump has been running for president for nearly a year and a half, including nearly six months where he had sewn up the Republican nomination and we are only just now getting accusations of groping and sexual assault? It just seems a bit fishy regarding timing. At the very least, I suspect that I'm not the only one who questions it and if the majority of the public thinks there is something suspicious, they will let this roll of their backs and look at other issues when going into the voting booth.

I raise the scandal issue because this and other actions taken by the Democratic party and those sympathetic to them don't suggest confidence. If you go back to both 2008 and 2012, Mr. Obama and his allies never seemed overly perturbed in their campaigns. They worked hard and seemed to run very standard campaigns. Mrs. Clinton's campaign and her allies seem worried and are pulling a "throw everything against the wall" approach. Granted, some of that may be tied to this slow but steady release of documents and missing e-mails that Wikileaks has somehow obtained. One would expect that would worry anyone.

Another data point that suggests that this race is closer than we might suspect is the location of where various rallies have been taking place. Mr. Trump has been hitting all the various swing states as you might expect, including a few stops in Pennsylvania, which I have trouble thinking of as a swing state. However, looking at Mrs. Clinton and her allies locations suggests a little trouble. Mr. Obama has given speeches in Virginia and Pennsylvania. Mrs. Obama was dispatched to New Hampshire. Mr. Clinton and their Chelsea have been in Ohio and Michigan. Swing states are understandable and Mr. Obama is understandably going to keep somewhat close to DC, but just about any Democratic rallies in Pennsylvania and Michigan seem out of place to me. Even an appearance in New Hampshire feels wrong. I know New Hampshire is a lesser swing state but at only four electoral votes and surrounded by the rest of liberal New England, it just seems odd to send the First Lady there when you could send her to Florida or North Carolina. Again, these don't seem like the actions of confident people.

One last data point and it's just an anecdotal as the rest: attendance at the rallies. When Mr. Obama went to rallies and campaign stops, he would draw large crowds with lots of enthusiastic people. He still gets these when he has gone out to campaign for Mrs. Clinton. Mr. Clinton also draws fairly reasonable crowds when he headlines events. Mrs. Clinton's crowds on the other hand seem paltry by comparison. Close up shots disguise this but when pull out shots are shown, her venues don't seem very full and other sections are walled and blanketed off to hide the empty seats.

I am not seeing this same effect with Mr. Trump's rallies. Wide shots are done there and the venues seem fairly well attended and I see very little evidence of anything being walled or curtained off. Occasionally there is also a shot of some overflow area and even those seem well attended. Mr. Trump is drawing crowds. Of course, drawing crowds and getting those crowds to vote for you are two totally different things. There is also the contrast of drawing die-hards to see you in person and convincing people on the fence to go vote for you. So I'd consider this one of the weaker data points, even if it is the most visually impressive.

So where does this leave us? Mrs. Clinton may go ahead and win this thing in a walk. But I'm not convinced of that yet. I think Mrs. Clinton and her team thinks this is going to be close and that is what the anecdotal evidence would seem to suggest. Perhaps some new thing will come out and finally finish off Mr. Trump, but if it hasn't happened yet I fail to see what could now, outside of someone outright killing Mr. Trump. Expect a tight race or at least expectations of a tight race for the next three weeks and a nasty flourish at the finish.

Getting a VP to be President

In all practical reality, either Mrs. Clinton or Mr. Trump are going to be elected President on November 8. However, there are a couple of scenarios that could lead to something different happening. It is possible in a semi-realistic way to produce a 269-269 tie in the Electoral college based on current trends. If Mrs. Clinton retains the traditional blue states of the Atlantic (including New Hampshire), retains Virginia, keeps the upper mid-west minus Ohio, holds the West coast, including Nevada and New Mexico, this will give her 270 exactly. However, Maine allows the splitting of it's Electoral College votes and Mr. Trump is running well ahead in Maine's second district. Removing this from her total will produce a 269-269 split, tossing the election to the House.

Things get even more interesting when you look at the third-party candidates. Neither Mr. Johnson nor Ms. Stein have any chance at winning the election but in the normally solidly Republican state of Utah, there is an interesting brew going on. In addition to the top four candidates, there is the independent bid of Mr. Evan McMullin. He is a Mormon, from Utah and currently running third in the vote for that state, with the last poll showing him only four points behind Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Trump. It is possible that if the people of Utah are soured enough on the regular candidates, Mr. McCullin could actually manage to take Utah's six electoral votes. This is important because if neither Mrs. Clinton nor Mr. Trump manage to get to 270 electoral votes, the House of Representatives is required to vote for a winner from the top three Electoral College vote getters; meaning that Mr. McMullin could get thrown in to the mix for consideration in what would normally be a straight affair between Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton.

According to the provisions laid out in the Constitution, the top three EC vote getters are voted on by the House with each state delegation getting one vote. Meanwhile the Senate votes on the VP in a straight up or down vote from the top two vote getters (Mr. Pence and Mr. Kaine). This vote is taken by the newly elected Congress and current polling favors the Republicans to keep control of both houses of Congress, although the Democrats have a shot at taking the Senate. If they fail to do so, Mr. Pence would likely be elected to the VP slot in short order.

In the current House, the Republicans control the delegations of 32 states while the Democrats control 16. With 26 votes to win, this scenario would seem to favor Mr. Trump. However, Mr. Trump has not exactly enamored himself with the Republican party lately and it is not hard to imagine some members of the Republican House being less than thrilled with the prospect of voting for him. In a two-way race, Mr. Trump is still likely to win just because there won't be much in the way of alternative. Abstention is not practical for more than a vote or two, especially in the light of potential anger by the voters to just get the thing over with.

However, imagine that Mr. McMullin is in the mix. A number of Republican delegations could opt to cast their votes for him. It is unlikely that he would garner enough states to win outright, but he could deny Mr. Trump the 26 votes he would need. What's more, this could provide the Republicans (and some Democrats) the fig leaf needed to dump both candidates. If the election remains undecided by the time of the Inauguration, the Constitution dictates that the Vice President shall step in and take over. This effectively means that the country would end up with President Pence or President Kaine (although the odds favor the former).

This is an extreme case scenario but one that is not out of the realm of possibility. Given the way this race has ebbed and flowed, this may not be an implausible as it sounds. At the very least, it is fun to speculate on.