Thursday, April 28, 2016

The Red Bull Marches Forth


With the sweep of the primaries on Tuesday, Mr. Trump has mathematically eliminated Mr. Cruz from winning in the first round of balloting at the Republican National Convention and poised himself even closer to winning the nomination outright, contrary to opinions regarding this ability only weeks ago.

Mr. Trump currently sits with 956 pledged delegates. He also has the support of about 40 unpledged delegates, most from their direct election in Pennsylvania on Tuesday. While these are not obligated to vote for him in the first round, they have stated their intention to do so. This leaves Mr. Trump just shy of 1,000 delegates and just under 250 short of what he would need to win the nomination outright. In the remaining ten state contests, there are 502 delegates available, meaning that Mr. Trump only has to secure about half of those to win the nomination.

It is mathematically impossible for Mr. Trump to secure the nomination before June 7 as the five contests scheduled before this date only amount to 199 delegates and two of those contests (Oregon and Washington) are proportional allocation, similar to Democratic primaries, so that further decreases the amount of delegates that Mr. Trump would win there. But in these five contests, it is not unreasonable to suggest that Mr. Trump could walk away with between 100 and 150 delegates. If he does so, he would only need between 100 and 150 delegates of the 303 delegates available (172 from California alone where Mr. Trump has been polling well) to win.

So lets break down the various states and see how this might play out:

Indiana - May 3 - 57 delegates: 30 delegates are given to the statewide winner and 27 delegates are given to the winners of each congressional district (3 per district). Mr. Trump is currently polling ahead of Mr. Cruz by about 6 points. If that holds, Mr. Trump would get the 30 state delegates and probably around half of the district delegates, unless the voting is balanced throughout the state, which would give him even more. Either way, a Trump win would probably net around 45 delegates.

Nebraska - May 10 - 36 delegates: 27 delegates are available to the overall winner while 9 more are available through the districts. However, the district allocation is based on the statewide vote, not the individual district, although each district will select the delegates at individual district conventions. Not much polling exists for Nebraska but Mr. Cruz has done well in the plain states so the pick up for Mr. Trump is likely to be minimal here.

West Virginia - May 10 - 34 delegates: West Virginia does a direct election of delegates but those delegates state their preferences, including being unbound, so it will work more or less like a direct election (assuming the delegate keeps to their pledge of supporting said candidate in the first round). 25 delegates are elected statewide while 9 are via districts. Like Nebraska, pollsters are not paying much attention to West Virginia but in the Virginia primary, Mr. Trump did well in the Appalachian areas that border West Virginia. Likewise, he defeated Mr. Kasich in the border regions of Ohio. I would expect Mr. Trump to do very well here, perhaps even well enough to pocket all 34 delegates.

Oregon - May 17 - 28 delegates: Oregon has proportional allocation. 13 delegates to be split via the statewide results. 15 more to be split likely 2-1 in each district. All polling has pretty much been reserved for California so there are no hard numbers, but if Mr. Trump's polling in California reflects similar attitudes up north, he could be looking at between 15 and 17 delegates from the contest.

Washington - May 24 - 44 delegates: Like Oregon, Washington proportionally allocates its 14 statewide delegates. Unlike Oregon, there is a winner-take-most allocation in the 10 congressional districts. I'm going to assume that means that the winner will be the beneficiary of any close allocation and that there may also be a threshold (like 50%) where the winner would then get all delegates. Mr. Trump would likely take most of the delegates on the West side of the Cascades while Mr. Cruz would likely be the winner on the Eastern side. I still think that would get Mr. Trump the majority of the delegates so 25-30 delegates would not be an unreasonable assumption.

California - June 7 - 172 delegates: This is the big one. California gives 13 delegates to the overall winner and unless the polling changes, that will be Mr. Trump. But you have 53 congressional districts, all winner-take-all at 3 delegates a pop. Obviously Mr. Cruz and perhaps even Mr. Kasich will secure a win in several districts. But if Mr. Trump holds his upper 40's percentage, he is likely to win nearly half of the congressional district allocation, perhaps more depending on how the vote spread is. Barring a major change of fortune, I don't see how Mr. Trump walks away from California with less than 90 delegates and over 100 is not unreasonable. Taking the lower sums from above, that would give Mr. Trump around 200 delegates and he would need only about 40 or 50 more from the remaining contests.

Montana - June 7 - 27 delegates: Montana is winner-take-all. Given his performance in the plains, I would expect Mr. Cruz to take all 27 of these delegates.

New Jersey - June 7 - 51 delegates: Like Montana, New Jersey is winner-take-all. This is where I think the math breaks for Mr. Trump. With the endorsement of Governor Christie and his own New York roots, Mr. Trump should take these 51 delegates going away. If the minimal math holds and Mr. Trump walks into June 7 needing only between 100 and 150 delegates, it is likely that California and New Jersey will be what delivers victory to him.

New Mexico - June 7 - 24 delegates: New Mexico is proportional with 15 statewide and 9 CD delegates. If Arizona, Nevada, and California are any guide, Mr. Trump will win the state but Mr. Cruz will likely be near his heels giving this a closer to 50-50 split on delegates.

South Dakota - June 7 - 29 delegates: South Dakota is winner-take-all like Montana and I think likely to give it's votes to Mr. Cruz unless there is a swing of inevitability for Mr. Trump.

Polling could change at any time but I'm starting to think that even if Mr. Trump uses a flamethrower on a basket of live puppies, he will still not lose much support in the remaining contests. Even if they don't necessarily like him, many Republicans seem to be desperate to avoid a brokered convention and are giving in to the inevitability of Mr. Trump being the nominee. It doesn't hurt that this does serve as a middle finger to the party leadership so even if they don't necessarily like him, they like the message it sends.

Like much of the media, I think the Indiana race is going to be an interesting to watch. Mr. Cruz has planted a flag there and I think this may be the hill he dies on, although he won't admit to being dead until Mr. Trump notches the full 1,237 in bound delegates no less. But if Mr. Trump walks away with the state win and better than the 45 delegates I'm guestimating him at, it could break the last remaining sense of resistance and even the plain states could start to break for Mr. Trump in a bid for party cohesion.

Of course, predicting how Mr. Trump will do against Ms. Clinton in November will be an even more drawn out tale.