Apparently the Bengals got a little tired of even their own fans saying that they were going to lose last night. They tried in the third quarter, but a strong effort by the defense and a lack of ineptitude on the offense allowed the Bengals to rally to a 37-28 victory.
This does not change the standings in the AFC playoff race that I posted yesterday, but it does have some ripples in terms of overall effect.
First, Cincinnati has now secured a playoff spot. The division crown will be settled in the head to head match-up with Pittsburgh next Sunday night, but both teams are now assured a playoff spot. In fact, the loser of the game will be assured the #5 seed in the playoffs as they will have either a better overall record or a better conference record than whichever team secures the #6 seed.
Second, the Bengals and Steelers will not play each other in the first round of the playoffs. If the Bengals win and Denver wins, the Bengals will get the #3 seed, regardless of what the Colts do. Should the Bengals win and the Broncos lose to Oakland, the Bengals will actually vault over Denver for the #2 seed as they would be a half-game ahead of the Broncos. If Pittsburgh wins, they will get the #3 seed as Denver has the tie-breaker of better division record and the Steelers have the tie-breaker over Indianapolis.
Third, Indianapolis is assured the #4 seed. The Colts lost to Pittsburgh and Denver during the regular season so a tie in the standings goes against them and the Bengals would be a half-game ahead of them in the standings if they win. There is nothing the Colts can do to move up. So expect them to rest just about everybody in the closing match against the Titans.
Fourth, New England has locked home-field advantage. New England has the tie-breaker against Denver so they have secured the #1 seed regardless of how the game against Buffalo goes.
Fifth, the #6 seed comes down to San Diego, Baltimore, Houston, or Kansas City. San Diego plays KC in the final game while Baltimore plays Cleveland, and Houston plays Jacksonville. The equation is pretty simple. If San Diego wins, they get the spot. If Kansas City wins and Baltimore wins, Baltimore gets the spot. If Kansas City wins, Baltimore loses, and Houston wins, Houston gets the spot. If Kansas City wins and Baltimore and Houston lose, Kansas City gets the spot. I personally don't think that Baltimore will lose to Cleveland so I'd say KC and Houston have no real shot, but I also thought it would be simple last year and that didn't work out that way. All three games are at 1 pm so there will be some game time scoreboard watching I would imagine.
On the scheduling note, the four deciding games in the NFC and the Oakland-Dever game have all been moved to 4:30 so the early talk will only be about the AFC #6 seed and then there will be a ton of game updates going on in the late afternoon.
Tuesday, December 23, 2014
Monday, December 22, 2014
2014 Playoffs
I haven't posted much about this football season, mostly because it has been so up and down and no team has seemed like that dominant force who everyone expects to win the Super Bowl. But with one week left, let's take a look at things.
AFC
1. New England Patriots - The Pats have secured a first round bye and in the (unlikely) event that Denver loses tonight, they will secure home field advantage.
2. Denver Broncos - The Broncos have won the West and if they win tonight against the Bengals, they will lock in a first round bye. Because New England won the head-to-head, Denver would need the Pats to lose against Buffalo next week to have a chance at the top spot.
3. Cincinnati Bengals - The only division not set is the North. If the Bengals win against Denver tonight, they'll secure a playoff spot, but I'm skeptical of the Bengals chances. If they lose tonight, Pittsburgh will move into this spot and the Bengals will fall to the #5 spot. It is also possible that if they lose to Denver and lose to Pittsburgh next week, that they miss the playoffs entirely. The game against Pittsburgh will the final game of the season as it has been moved to the Sunday Night game.
4. Indianpolis Colts - The Colts could climb back up to the #3 seed, but since they have secured the division and have essentially no shot at a bye week, they'll probably rest folks next week, which is likely to keep them in the #4 spot.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers - The Steelers have secured a playoff spot and if the Bengals lose tonight, they'll take over the division lead and the #3 spot.
6. San Diego Chargers - Right now the final spot belongs to the Chargers, but they have Baltimore breathing down their necks. As Baltimore is likely to defeat a reeling Cleveland Browns team next week, the Chargers will be facing a must win against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs are technically not eliminated yet, but they would to beat the Chargers and have the Browns beat Baltimore. Possible but not overly likely.
NFC
1. Seattle Seahawks - There is a five-way tie for best record in the NFC so it falls to various tie-breakers to see who has divisional leads and best seeding. Seattle is currently in the driver's seat with the #1 spot. The have a home game against the Rams to close things out and that should be enough to keep them in this spot.
2. Detroit Lions - The Leos square off against Green Bay next week (in Green Bay) to secure the division and the likely #2 seed. Both teams have a better conference record than Dallas so (assuming Seattle wins) the winner will retain the #2 seed while the loser will likely get the #5 seed.
3. Dallas Cowboys - Dallas is actually the only team in the NFC to have won their division, but because of the similar records and various tie-breakers, the only way Dallas can move up to the #2 seed is if both Seattle and Arizona lose (an unlikely scenario). So I would expect Dallas to rest folks next week and be content with the #3 spot.
4. Carolina Panthers - The dregs of the NFC is also the only unsecured spot. Carolina and Atlanta go head-to-head next week to see which losing team gets the #4 spot and a likely date with the North runner-up. Carolina is playing like they did at the beginning of the season, but Atlanta is 5-0 in the division and is unlikely to go away quietly. Still, I wouldn't favor either team in the first round playoff game.
5. Green Bay Packers - As noted earlier, the Packers could end up winning the division. In fact, if they win and Seattle loses, Green Bay could end up with the #1 seed. Or they could lose and fall behind Arizona for the #6 seed. But they are in the playoffs and that's all the really matters.
6. Arizona Cardinals - Arizona got thumped hard last night. At one point they were the best team in the NFC, but they are such a walking wounded team that I'm not holding my breath that they'll field anyone of importance next week against San Francisco. If that happens, the Niners may actually be able to get to .500 and Arizona will stay secure in the #6 spot. Of course it is possible that they could win and that through a unique set of circumstances, end up with the #2 spot. But I would imagine that the Cardinals coaches are already drawing up plans for Dallas.
As for my own predictions, I think things will stay much as they are with only a few changes. In the AFC, I don't have much faith in the Bengals and am expeting Pittsburgh to win the division. In fact, I'm desperately hoping for the Chiefs to win so that the Bengals will even make the playoffs as I do expect the Ravens to beat the Browns.
In the NFC, I expect Green Bay to end up with the #2 spot, which will send Detroit down for a date with Carolina (whom I also expect to win). Everything else will likely stay the same.
AFC
1. New England Patriots - The Pats have secured a first round bye and in the (unlikely) event that Denver loses tonight, they will secure home field advantage.
2. Denver Broncos - The Broncos have won the West and if they win tonight against the Bengals, they will lock in a first round bye. Because New England won the head-to-head, Denver would need the Pats to lose against Buffalo next week to have a chance at the top spot.
3. Cincinnati Bengals - The only division not set is the North. If the Bengals win against Denver tonight, they'll secure a playoff spot, but I'm skeptical of the Bengals chances. If they lose tonight, Pittsburgh will move into this spot and the Bengals will fall to the #5 spot. It is also possible that if they lose to Denver and lose to Pittsburgh next week, that they miss the playoffs entirely. The game against Pittsburgh will the final game of the season as it has been moved to the Sunday Night game.
4. Indianpolis Colts - The Colts could climb back up to the #3 seed, but since they have secured the division and have essentially no shot at a bye week, they'll probably rest folks next week, which is likely to keep them in the #4 spot.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers - The Steelers have secured a playoff spot and if the Bengals lose tonight, they'll take over the division lead and the #3 spot.
6. San Diego Chargers - Right now the final spot belongs to the Chargers, but they have Baltimore breathing down their necks. As Baltimore is likely to defeat a reeling Cleveland Browns team next week, the Chargers will be facing a must win against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs are technically not eliminated yet, but they would to beat the Chargers and have the Browns beat Baltimore. Possible but not overly likely.
NFC
1. Seattle Seahawks - There is a five-way tie for best record in the NFC so it falls to various tie-breakers to see who has divisional leads and best seeding. Seattle is currently in the driver's seat with the #1 spot. The have a home game against the Rams to close things out and that should be enough to keep them in this spot.
2. Detroit Lions - The Leos square off against Green Bay next week (in Green Bay) to secure the division and the likely #2 seed. Both teams have a better conference record than Dallas so (assuming Seattle wins) the winner will retain the #2 seed while the loser will likely get the #5 seed.
3. Dallas Cowboys - Dallas is actually the only team in the NFC to have won their division, but because of the similar records and various tie-breakers, the only way Dallas can move up to the #2 seed is if both Seattle and Arizona lose (an unlikely scenario). So I would expect Dallas to rest folks next week and be content with the #3 spot.
4. Carolina Panthers - The dregs of the NFC is also the only unsecured spot. Carolina and Atlanta go head-to-head next week to see which losing team gets the #4 spot and a likely date with the North runner-up. Carolina is playing like they did at the beginning of the season, but Atlanta is 5-0 in the division and is unlikely to go away quietly. Still, I wouldn't favor either team in the first round playoff game.
5. Green Bay Packers - As noted earlier, the Packers could end up winning the division. In fact, if they win and Seattle loses, Green Bay could end up with the #1 seed. Or they could lose and fall behind Arizona for the #6 seed. But they are in the playoffs and that's all the really matters.
6. Arizona Cardinals - Arizona got thumped hard last night. At one point they were the best team in the NFC, but they are such a walking wounded team that I'm not holding my breath that they'll field anyone of importance next week against San Francisco. If that happens, the Niners may actually be able to get to .500 and Arizona will stay secure in the #6 spot. Of course it is possible that they could win and that through a unique set of circumstances, end up with the #2 spot. But I would imagine that the Cardinals coaches are already drawing up plans for Dallas.
As for my own predictions, I think things will stay much as they are with only a few changes. In the AFC, I don't have much faith in the Bengals and am expeting Pittsburgh to win the division. In fact, I'm desperately hoping for the Chiefs to win so that the Bengals will even make the playoffs as I do expect the Ravens to beat the Browns.
In the NFC, I expect Green Bay to end up with the #2 spot, which will send Detroit down for a date with Carolina (whom I also expect to win). Everything else will likely stay the same.
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