Monday, June 23, 2014

World Cup Advancement Potential

Because the USA defense fell asleep in the last 30 seconds of the match against Portugal, the US lost the guaranteed bid to the elimination round. But things are not hopeless. In fact, the situation is still pretty good for the USA. They face off against Germany on Thursday while Ghana will face off against Portugal at the same time (preventing any scoreboard watching by either team). They can advance to the next round by the following results:

1. Win against Germany. Obviously this is the best and would let the US win the group and advance to a match against the second place winner in group H (probably Algeria).

2. Draw against Germany. If the US and Germany tie, both teams will end up with 5 points and Germany would win the group due to goal differential. But both teams would have more points than the other two so the US would advance to face Belgium in the next round.

If the USA loses to Germany, it will come down to by how many goals they lose.

3. The USA loses and Portugal and Ghana tie. If Portugal and Ghana tie, they each will only get 1 point that will leave them with 2 points to the US's 4 and the US advances.

4. The USA loses by one goal and Ghana wins by one goal. If the US loses to Germany, they are going to be huge fans of Portugal. But if they lose by only one goal, they're not dead yet. Their goal differential will drop to 0 and if Ghana wins by only one goal, their goal differential will rise to 0. Then it goes to total goals scored. If the US and Ghana are still tied there (the US currently has 4 goals to Ghana's 3), then it goes to head-to-head, where the US has the tie-breaker. Of course, if Ghana wins by 2 or more goals or they end up having a higher total number of goals, Ghana will advance and the US goes home.

5. The USA loses, Portugal wins, and the goal differential is less than 5. Portugal has a goal differential of -4 while the US is at 1. So if Portugal wins, they still have a high hill to climb. Again, a US loss will leave them at a goal differential of 0 or worse while a Portugal win will push them up to -3 or better. But that's still a wide gap. Portugal would need to really pour it on and beat Ghana by 3 or better. Even if the US lost by two goals, they would still finish at -1 and Portugal would need to win by three goals to tie in goal differential. If they did that, Portugal would probably advance because the need to score more goals will probably push their total goals scored number over that of the US. But the odds are still in favor of the US in the event of a Portugal win over Ghana.

Assuming the US does advance to the field of 16, most of the scenarios would have them facing the winner of group H (almost certainly Belgium). Only a win against Germany would set them up against the second place team in group H (currently Algeria, although Russia still has a chance).

If the US managed to get by Belgium, they would likely be facing the powerhouse of Argentina in the next round. Things wouldn't be much better on the other side of the bracket. If the US beat the second place team of group H, they would likely be looking at a match with either France or Italy, two of the top squads in the world.

But that is getting ahead of things. First, win or tie against Germany and then worry about what comes next.